Opinion Poll by Simple Lógica, 3–9 January 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 25.1% | 23.5–26.9% | 23.0–27.4% | 22.6–27.9% | 21.8–28.7% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 18.2% | 16.8–19.8% | 16.4–20.3% | 16.0–20.7% | 15.3–21.5% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 17.9% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.0% | 15.7–20.4% | 15.1–21.2% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 14.0% | 12.7–15.5% | 12.3–15.9% | 12.0–16.3% | 11.4–17.0% |
| Vox | 0.2% | 11.5% | 10.3–12.9% | 10.0–13.3% | 9.7–13.6% | 9.2–14.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 112 | 102–118 | 98–122 | 96–125 | 91–130 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 74 | 65–82 | 62–85 | 61–88 | 58–91 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 64 | 57–69 | 55–71 | 54–73 | 50–77 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 40 | 35–47 | 34–50 | 32–54 | 29–60 |
| Vox | 0 | 30 | 26–38 | 24–41 | 22–43 | 21–48 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 93 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 94 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 95 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 96 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 97 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 98 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 99 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 100 | 2% | 93% | |
| 101 | 2% | 92% | |
| 102 | 2% | 90% | |
| 103 | 2% | 88% | |
| 104 | 3% | 86% | |
| 105 | 3% | 83% | |
| 106 | 4% | 80% | |
| 107 | 3% | 76% | |
| 108 | 4% | 73% | |
| 109 | 5% | 69% | |
| 110 | 5% | 64% | |
| 111 | 8% | 59% | |
| 112 | 10% | 51% | Median |
| 113 | 9% | 41% | |
| 114 | 7% | 32% | |
| 115 | 6% | 25% | |
| 116 | 4% | 19% | |
| 117 | 3% | 15% | |
| 118 | 2% | 12% | |
| 119 | 2% | 10% | |
| 120 | 2% | 8% | |
| 121 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 122 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 123 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 124 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 125 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 126 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 127 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 59 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 61 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 62 | 2% | 96% | |
| 63 | 2% | 95% | |
| 64 | 2% | 93% | |
| 65 | 2% | 91% | |
| 66 | 2% | 89% | |
| 67 | 3% | 87% | |
| 68 | 4% | 85% | |
| 69 | 4% | 81% | |
| 70 | 3% | 77% | |
| 71 | 3% | 74% | |
| 72 | 7% | 71% | |
| 73 | 10% | 64% | |
| 74 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 75 | 9% | 46% | |
| 76 | 8% | 37% | |
| 77 | 4% | 28% | |
| 78 | 5% | 24% | |
| 79 | 3% | 19% | |
| 80 | 3% | 17% | |
| 81 | 3% | 14% | |
| 82 | 2% | 11% | |
| 83 | 2% | 9% | |
| 84 | 1.5% | 8% | |
| 85 | 2% | 6% | |
| 86 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 87 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 88 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 89 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 53 | 1.0% | 98.8% | |
| 54 | 2% | 98% | |
| 55 | 2% | 96% | |
| 56 | 3% | 94% | |
| 57 | 3% | 91% | |
| 58 | 3% | 88% | |
| 59 | 3% | 85% | |
| 60 | 4% | 82% | |
| 61 | 8% | 78% | |
| 62 | 7% | 70% | |
| 63 | 7% | 63% | |
| 64 | 10% | 56% | Median |
| 65 | 13% | 46% | |
| 66 | 8% | 33% | |
| 67 | 7% | 25% | |
| 68 | 6% | 18% | |
| 69 | 4% | 12% | |
| 70 | 3% | 8% | |
| 71 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 72 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 73 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 32 | 1.4% | 98.6% | |
| 33 | 2% | 97% | |
| 34 | 3% | 96% | |
| 35 | 5% | 93% | |
| 36 | 9% | 88% | |
| 37 | 9% | 79% | |
| 38 | 11% | 70% | |
| 39 | 9% | 59% | |
| 40 | 5% | 50% | Median |
| 41 | 4% | 46% | |
| 42 | 6% | 41% | |
| 43 | 6% | 36% | |
| 44 | 6% | 30% | |
| 45 | 7% | 23% | |
| 46 | 5% | 16% | |
| 47 | 3% | 12% | |
| 48 | 2% | 8% | |
| 49 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 50 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 51 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 52 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 54 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 22 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 23 | 2% | 97% | |
| 24 | 2% | 96% | |
| 25 | 3% | 94% | |
| 26 | 6% | 90% | |
| 27 | 14% | 84% | |
| 28 | 10% | 70% | |
| 29 | 8% | 60% | |
| 30 | 5% | 52% | Median |
| 31 | 6% | 46% | |
| 32 | 6% | 40% | |
| 33 | 7% | 35% | |
| 34 | 5% | 27% | |
| 35 | 5% | 23% | |
| 36 | 4% | 18% | |
| 37 | 3% | 14% | |
| 38 | 2% | 11% | |
| 39 | 2% | 9% | |
| 40 | 2% | 7% | |
| 41 | 2% | 6% | |
| 42 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 43 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 254 | 249 | 100% | 239–256 | 236–258 | 233–260 | 226–263 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 216 | 100% | 206–223 | 203–226 | 200–229 | 195–235 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular | 222 | 185 | 90% | 175–193 | 172–195 | 168–197 | 162–202 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 175 | 45% | 165–183 | 161–186 | 158–189 | 153–194 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox | 169 | 168 | 13% | 161–177 | 158–180 | 155–183 | 149–188 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 152 | 0.1% | 143–160 | 139–163 | 136–166 | 131–172 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 138 | 0% | 128–147 | 126–149 | 123–152 | 119–157 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 112 | 0% | 102–118 | 98–122 | 96–125 | 91–130 |
| Partido Popular – Vox | 137 | 104 | 0% | 97–114 | 94–117 | 91–119 | 87–124 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 74 | 0% | 65–82 | 62–85 | 61–88 | 58–91 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 220 | 0% | 100% | |
| 221 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 222 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 223 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 224 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 227 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 228 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 229 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 230 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 231 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 232 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 233 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 234 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 235 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 236 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 237 | 1.1% | 94% | |
| 238 | 2% | 93% | |
| 239 | 2% | 92% | |
| 240 | 2% | 90% | |
| 241 | 3% | 88% | |
| 242 | 3% | 85% | |
| 243 | 4% | 82% | |
| 244 | 4% | 78% | |
| 245 | 5% | 74% | |
| 246 | 5% | 69% | |
| 247 | 5% | 64% | |
| 248 | 7% | 59% | |
| 249 | 6% | 52% | |
| 250 | 7% | 46% | Median |
| 251 | 7% | 39% | |
| 252 | 6% | 33% | |
| 253 | 6% | 27% | |
| 254 | 6% | 21% | Last Result |
| 255 | 4% | 16% | |
| 256 | 4% | 11% | |
| 257 | 2% | 8% | |
| 258 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 259 | 2% | 4% | |
| 260 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 261 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 262 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 263 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 264 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 265 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 266 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 267 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 268 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 191 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 195 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 197 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 198 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 199 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 200 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 201 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 202 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 203 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 204 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 205 | 2% | 93% | |
| 206 | 2% | 91% | |
| 207 | 3% | 89% | |
| 208 | 3% | 86% | |
| 209 | 3% | 83% | |
| 210 | 5% | 81% | |
| 211 | 4% | 76% | |
| 212 | 6% | 72% | |
| 213 | 4% | 66% | |
| 214 | 5% | 62% | |
| 215 | 6% | 57% | |
| 216 | 7% | 50% | Median |
| 217 | 8% | 43% | |
| 218 | 6% | 35% | |
| 219 | 5% | 29% | |
| 220 | 5% | 24% | |
| 221 | 4% | 19% | |
| 222 | 3% | 15% | |
| 223 | 2% | 12% | |
| 224 | 2% | 10% | |
| 225 | 2% | 8% | |
| 226 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 227 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 228 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 229 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 230 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 231 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 232 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 233 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 234 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 235 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 236 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 237 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 238 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 239 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 240 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 166 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 167 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 168 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 169 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 170 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 171 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 172 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 173 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 174 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 175 | 2% | 91% | |
| 176 | 2% | 90% | Majority |
| 177 | 3% | 88% | |
| 178 | 3% | 85% | |
| 179 | 4% | 83% | |
| 180 | 3% | 79% | |
| 181 | 5% | 76% | |
| 182 | 5% | 71% | |
| 183 | 5% | 65% | |
| 184 | 5% | 60% | |
| 185 | 6% | 55% | |
| 186 | 8% | 49% | Median |
| 187 | 6% | 41% | |
| 188 | 5% | 35% | |
| 189 | 6% | 29% | |
| 190 | 5% | 23% | |
| 191 | 4% | 18% | |
| 192 | 3% | 14% | |
| 193 | 3% | 12% | |
| 194 | 3% | 9% | |
| 195 | 2% | 6% | |
| 196 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 197 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 198 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 199 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 200 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 201 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 202 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 154 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 156 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 158 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 159 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 160 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 161 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 162 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 163 | 2% | 94% | |
| 164 | 2% | 92% | |
| 165 | 2% | 90% | |
| 166 | 3% | 88% | |
| 167 | 3% | 86% | |
| 168 | 3% | 83% | |
| 169 | 3% | 80% | |
| 170 | 4% | 77% | |
| 171 | 4% | 73% | |
| 172 | 5% | 69% | |
| 173 | 7% | 64% | |
| 174 | 6% | 57% | |
| 175 | 6% | 51% | |
| 176 | 6% | 45% | Median, Majority |
| 177 | 6% | 39% | |
| 178 | 5% | 33% | |
| 179 | 6% | 28% | |
| 180 | 4% | 22% | |
| 181 | 4% | 18% | |
| 182 | 3% | 14% | |
| 183 | 2% | 11% | |
| 184 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 185 | 2% | 8% | |
| 186 | 2% | 6% | |
| 187 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 188 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 189 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 190 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 191 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 192 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 193 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 152 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 153 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 154 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 155 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 156 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 157 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 158 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 159 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 160 | 2% | 92% | |
| 161 | 3% | 90% | |
| 162 | 3% | 88% | |
| 163 | 4% | 84% | |
| 164 | 5% | 81% | |
| 165 | 6% | 75% | |
| 166 | 8% | 69% | |
| 167 | 8% | 62% | |
| 168 | 8% | 53% | Median |
| 169 | 7% | 45% | Last Result |
| 170 | 5% | 39% | |
| 171 | 6% | 33% | |
| 172 | 5% | 28% | |
| 173 | 4% | 23% | |
| 174 | 3% | 19% | |
| 175 | 3% | 16% | |
| 176 | 3% | 13% | Majority |
| 177 | 2% | 10% | |
| 178 | 2% | 9% | |
| 179 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 180 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 181 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 182 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 183 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 184 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 185 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 186 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 187 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 188 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 132 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 135 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 136 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 137 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 138 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 139 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 140 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 141 | 1.5% | 94% | |
| 142 | 2% | 92% | |
| 143 | 2% | 90% | |
| 144 | 3% | 88% | |
| 145 | 3% | 86% | |
| 146 | 3% | 82% | |
| 147 | 4% | 79% | |
| 148 | 6% | 75% | |
| 149 | 5% | 69% | |
| 150 | 6% | 64% | |
| 151 | 7% | 58% | |
| 152 | 8% | 51% | Median |
| 153 | 6% | 43% | |
| 154 | 5% | 37% | |
| 155 | 5% | 32% | |
| 156 | 5% | 27% | Last Result |
| 157 | 4% | 21% | |
| 158 | 4% | 17% | |
| 159 | 3% | 14% | |
| 160 | 2% | 11% | |
| 161 | 2% | 8% | |
| 162 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 163 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 164 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 165 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 166 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 167 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 170 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 122 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 123 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 124 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 125 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 126 | 2% | 95% | |
| 127 | 2% | 94% | |
| 128 | 3% | 92% | |
| 129 | 3% | 89% | |
| 130 | 4% | 86% | |
| 131 | 3% | 83% | |
| 132 | 4% | 80% | |
| 133 | 3% | 76% | |
| 134 | 4% | 73% | |
| 135 | 5% | 68% | |
| 136 | 5% | 63% | |
| 137 | 7% | 58% | |
| 138 | 7% | 51% | Median |
| 139 | 7% | 44% | |
| 140 | 6% | 37% | |
| 141 | 5% | 31% | |
| 142 | 4% | 26% | |
| 143 | 3% | 21% | |
| 144 | 3% | 18% | |
| 145 | 2% | 15% | |
| 146 | 2% | 12% | |
| 147 | 2% | 10% | |
| 148 | 2% | 8% | |
| 149 | 2% | 6% | |
| 150 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 151 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 152 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 153 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 155 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 93 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 94 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 95 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 96 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 97 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 98 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 99 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 100 | 2% | 93% | |
| 101 | 2% | 92% | |
| 102 | 2% | 90% | |
| 103 | 2% | 88% | |
| 104 | 3% | 86% | |
| 105 | 3% | 83% | |
| 106 | 4% | 80% | |
| 107 | 3% | 76% | |
| 108 | 4% | 73% | |
| 109 | 5% | 69% | |
| 110 | 5% | 64% | |
| 111 | 8% | 59% | |
| 112 | 10% | 51% | Median |
| 113 | 9% | 41% | |
| 114 | 7% | 32% | |
| 115 | 6% | 25% | |
| 116 | 4% | 19% | |
| 117 | 3% | 15% | |
| 118 | 2% | 12% | |
| 119 | 2% | 10% | |
| 120 | 2% | 8% | |
| 121 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 122 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 123 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 124 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 125 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 126 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 127 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 89 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 90 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 91 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 92 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 93 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 94 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 95 | 2% | 94% | |
| 96 | 2% | 93% | |
| 97 | 2% | 91% | |
| 98 | 3% | 89% | |
| 99 | 4% | 86% | |
| 100 | 5% | 82% | |
| 101 | 6% | 77% | |
| 102 | 10% | 71% | |
| 103 | 8% | 62% | |
| 104 | 6% | 53% | Median |
| 105 | 5% | 47% | |
| 106 | 5% | 41% | |
| 107 | 5% | 36% | |
| 108 | 5% | 31% | |
| 109 | 5% | 26% | |
| 110 | 3% | 22% | |
| 111 | 3% | 18% | |
| 112 | 3% | 15% | |
| 113 | 2% | 13% | |
| 114 | 2% | 10% | |
| 115 | 2% | 8% | |
| 116 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 117 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 118 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 119 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 120 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 123 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 59 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 61 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 62 | 2% | 96% | |
| 63 | 2% | 95% | |
| 64 | 2% | 93% | |
| 65 | 2% | 91% | |
| 66 | 2% | 89% | |
| 67 | 3% | 87% | |
| 68 | 4% | 85% | |
| 69 | 4% | 81% | |
| 70 | 3% | 77% | |
| 71 | 3% | 74% | |
| 72 | 7% | 71% | |
| 73 | 10% | 64% | |
| 74 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 75 | 9% | 46% | |
| 76 | 8% | 37% | |
| 77 | 4% | 28% | |
| 78 | 5% | 24% | |
| 79 | 3% | 19% | |
| 80 | 3% | 17% | |
| 81 | 3% | 14% | |
| 82 | 2% | 11% | |
| 83 | 2% | 9% | |
| 84 | 1.5% | 8% | |
| 85 | 2% | 6% | |
| 86 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 87 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 88 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 89 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Simple Lógica
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 3–9 January 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1042
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.59%