Opinion Poll by Invymark for laSexta, 14–18 January 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español |
22.6% |
23.2% |
21.7–24.8% |
21.2–25.2% |
20.9–25.7% |
20.1–26.4% |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía |
13.1% |
23.0% |
21.5–24.6% |
21.1–25.1% |
20.7–25.5% |
20.0–26.3% |
Partido Popular |
33.0% |
21.5% |
20.0–23.1% |
19.6–23.5% |
19.3–23.9% |
18.6–24.7% |
Unidos Podemos |
21.2% |
14.4% |
13.2–15.8% |
12.8–16.2% |
12.5–16.5% |
12.0–17.2% |
Vox |
0.2% |
8.9% |
7.9–10.1% |
7.7–10.4% |
7.4–10.7% |
7.0–11.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
76 |
0% |
100% |
|
77 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
78 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
79 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
80 |
0.4% |
99.4% |
|
81 |
0.5% |
99.0% |
|
82 |
0.9% |
98.6% |
|
83 |
1.3% |
98% |
|
84 |
2% |
96% |
|
85 |
3% |
94% |
Last Result |
86 |
3% |
92% |
|
87 |
5% |
89% |
|
88 |
6% |
84% |
|
89 |
5% |
78% |
|
90 |
5% |
73% |
|
91 |
5% |
68% |
|
92 |
5% |
64% |
|
93 |
7% |
58% |
|
94 |
7% |
51% |
Median |
95 |
6% |
44% |
|
96 |
5% |
38% |
|
97 |
5% |
33% |
|
98 |
5% |
28% |
|
99 |
3% |
23% |
|
100 |
4% |
20% |
|
101 |
3% |
16% |
|
102 |
2% |
13% |
|
103 |
3% |
11% |
|
104 |
2% |
8% |
|
105 |
2% |
6% |
|
106 |
1.2% |
4% |
|
107 |
0.9% |
3% |
|
108 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
109 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
110 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
111 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
112 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
113 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
114 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
115 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
116 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
0% |
100% |
|
35 |
0% |
100% |
|
36 |
0% |
100% |
|
37 |
0% |
100% |
|
38 |
0% |
100% |
|
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0% |
100% |
|
42 |
0% |
100% |
|
43 |
0% |
100% |
|
44 |
0% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0% |
100% |
|
47 |
0% |
100% |
|
48 |
0% |
100% |
|
49 |
0% |
100% |
|
50 |
0% |
100% |
|
51 |
0% |
100% |
|
52 |
0% |
100% |
|
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
100% |
|
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
0% |
100% |
|
59 |
0% |
100% |
|
60 |
0% |
100% |
|
61 |
0% |
100% |
|
62 |
0% |
100% |
|
63 |
0% |
100% |
|
64 |
0% |
100% |
|
65 |
0% |
100% |
|
66 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
67 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
68 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
69 |
1.1% |
99.5% |
|
70 |
1.2% |
98% |
|
71 |
2% |
97% |
|
72 |
3% |
95% |
|
73 |
3% |
92% |
|
74 |
3% |
89% |
|
75 |
4% |
86% |
|
76 |
4% |
82% |
|
77 |
5% |
78% |
|
78 |
6% |
74% |
|
79 |
5% |
68% |
|
80 |
5% |
63% |
|
81 |
5% |
58% |
|
82 |
5% |
53% |
Median |
83 |
5% |
48% |
|
84 |
5% |
43% |
|
85 |
4% |
38% |
|
86 |
3% |
34% |
|
87 |
4% |
30% |
|
88 |
3% |
26% |
|
89 |
4% |
23% |
|
90 |
3% |
19% |
|
91 |
3% |
16% |
|
92 |
3% |
13% |
|
93 |
2% |
11% |
|
94 |
2% |
9% |
|
95 |
2% |
7% |
|
96 |
1.3% |
5% |
|
97 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
98 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
99 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
100 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
101 |
0.5% |
0.9% |
|
102 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
103 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
104 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
105 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
106 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
68 |
0% |
100% |
|
69 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
70 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
72 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
73 |
0.5% |
99.4% |
|
74 |
0.9% |
98.8% |
|
75 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
76 |
2% |
97% |
|
77 |
2% |
95% |
|
78 |
2% |
93% |
|
79 |
2% |
91% |
|
80 |
2% |
89% |
|
81 |
3% |
87% |
|
82 |
3% |
84% |
|
83 |
3% |
81% |
|
84 |
4% |
78% |
|
85 |
6% |
73% |
|
86 |
7% |
67% |
|
87 |
7% |
60% |
|
88 |
9% |
53% |
Median |
89 |
8% |
44% |
|
90 |
7% |
36% |
|
91 |
5% |
29% |
|
92 |
5% |
24% |
|
93 |
4% |
19% |
|
94 |
4% |
16% |
|
95 |
2% |
12% |
|
96 |
2% |
9% |
|
97 |
2% |
7% |
|
98 |
1.4% |
5% |
|
99 |
1.1% |
4% |
|
100 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
101 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
102 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
103 |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
104 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
105 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
106 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
107 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
108 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
109 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
110 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
111 |
0% |
0% |
|
112 |
0% |
0% |
|
113 |
0% |
0% |
|
114 |
0% |
0% |
|
115 |
0% |
0% |
|
116 |
0% |
0% |
|
117 |
0% |
0% |
|
118 |
0% |
0% |
|
119 |
0% |
0% |
|
120 |
0% |
0% |
|
121 |
0% |
0% |
|
122 |
0% |
0% |
|
123 |
0% |
0% |
|
124 |
0% |
0% |
|
125 |
0% |
0% |
|
126 |
0% |
0% |
|
127 |
0% |
0% |
|
128 |
0% |
0% |
|
129 |
0% |
0% |
|
130 |
0% |
0% |
|
131 |
0% |
0% |
|
132 |
0% |
0% |
|
133 |
0% |
0% |
|
134 |
0% |
0% |
|
135 |
0% |
0% |
|
136 |
0% |
0% |
|
137 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
29 |
0.5% |
99.4% |
|
30 |
0.7% |
98.9% |
|
31 |
2% |
98% |
|
32 |
4% |
96% |
|
33 |
6% |
93% |
|
34 |
5% |
87% |
|
35 |
8% |
82% |
|
36 |
11% |
74% |
|
37 |
6% |
63% |
|
38 |
3% |
57% |
|
39 |
6% |
54% |
Median |
40 |
6% |
48% |
|
41 |
7% |
42% |
|
42 |
5% |
35% |
|
43 |
6% |
30% |
|
44 |
6% |
24% |
|
45 |
4% |
18% |
|
46 |
3% |
14% |
|
47 |
2% |
12% |
|
48 |
2% |
10% |
|
49 |
2% |
8% |
|
50 |
2% |
6% |
|
51 |
2% |
5% |
|
52 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
53 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
54 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
55 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
56 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
57 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
60 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
61 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
62 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
10 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
11 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
|
12 |
1.4% |
99.2% |
|
13 |
5% |
98% |
|
14 |
8% |
93% |
|
15 |
4% |
85% |
|
16 |
5% |
81% |
|
17 |
11% |
76% |
|
18 |
11% |
66% |
|
19 |
17% |
54% |
Median |
20 |
13% |
37% |
|
21 |
7% |
25% |
|
22 |
7% |
18% |
|
23 |
6% |
11% |
|
24 |
3% |
5% |
|
25 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
26 |
0.7% |
1.4% |
|
27 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
28 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular |
254 |
264 |
100% |
256–272 |
254–273 |
252–275 |
247–277 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos |
188 |
216 |
100% |
207–225 |
205–228 |
202–231 |
198–235 |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular – Vox |
169 |
189 |
96% |
179–198 |
176–200 |
174–202 |
170–205 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular |
222 |
182 |
81% |
172–190 |
169–192 |
166–194 |
162–198 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía |
117 |
177 |
56% |
167–186 |
164–189 |
162–192 |
157–196 |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular |
169 |
170 |
25% |
160–180 |
157–183 |
155–185 |
151–188 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos |
156 |
134 |
0% |
124–143 |
122–146 |
120–148 |
116–153 |
Partido Popular – Vox |
137 |
106 |
0% |
98–114 |
95–117 |
93–119 |
89–124 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español |
85 |
94 |
0% |
86–103 |
84–105 |
83–107 |
79–111 |
Partido Popular |
137 |
88 |
0% |
79–95 |
76–98 |
75–100 |
72–104 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
244 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
245 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
246 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
247 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
248 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
249 |
0.3% |
99.2% |
|
250 |
0.5% |
98.9% |
|
251 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
252 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
253 |
1.1% |
97% |
|
254 |
2% |
96% |
Last Result |
255 |
2% |
94% |
|
256 |
3% |
92% |
|
257 |
3% |
89% |
|
258 |
3% |
86% |
|
259 |
4% |
83% |
|
260 |
5% |
78% |
|
261 |
5% |
73% |
|
262 |
6% |
68% |
|
263 |
6% |
62% |
|
264 |
7% |
56% |
Median |
265 |
6% |
50% |
|
266 |
6% |
44% |
|
267 |
7% |
38% |
|
268 |
6% |
31% |
|
269 |
6% |
25% |
|
270 |
5% |
18% |
|
271 |
3% |
13% |
|
272 |
3% |
10% |
|
273 |
2% |
7% |
|
274 |
2% |
5% |
|
275 |
1.5% |
3% |
|
276 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
277 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
278 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
279 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
280 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
281 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
282 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
188 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
189 |
0% |
100% |
|
190 |
0% |
100% |
|
191 |
0% |
100% |
|
192 |
0% |
100% |
|
193 |
0% |
100% |
|
194 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
195 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
196 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
197 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
198 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
199 |
0.3% |
99.3% |
|
200 |
0.4% |
99.0% |
|
201 |
0.5% |
98.6% |
|
202 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
203 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
204 |
1.1% |
97% |
|
205 |
2% |
96% |
|
206 |
2% |
94% |
|
207 |
2% |
92% |
|
208 |
3% |
90% |
|
209 |
3% |
87% |
|
210 |
4% |
83% |
|
211 |
4% |
80% |
|
212 |
5% |
75% |
|
213 |
5% |
70% |
|
214 |
5% |
65% |
|
215 |
7% |
60% |
Median |
216 |
6% |
53% |
|
217 |
5% |
47% |
|
218 |
5% |
42% |
|
219 |
5% |
36% |
|
220 |
4% |
31% |
|
221 |
5% |
27% |
|
222 |
5% |
22% |
|
223 |
3% |
18% |
|
224 |
3% |
15% |
|
225 |
2% |
12% |
|
226 |
2% |
9% |
|
227 |
2% |
7% |
|
228 |
1.3% |
6% |
|
229 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
230 |
0.9% |
3% |
|
231 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
232 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
233 |
0.4% |
1.4% |
|
234 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
|
235 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
236 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
237 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
238 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
239 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
240 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular – Vox
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
165 |
0% |
100% |
|
166 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
167 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
168 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
169 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
170 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
171 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
|
172 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
173 |
0.6% |
98.8% |
|
174 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
175 |
1.0% |
97% |
|
176 |
1.4% |
96% |
Majority |
177 |
2% |
95% |
|
178 |
2% |
93% |
|
179 |
2% |
91% |
|
180 |
3% |
89% |
|
181 |
3% |
87% |
|
182 |
3% |
83% |
|
183 |
4% |
80% |
|
184 |
4% |
77% |
|
185 |
5% |
72% |
|
186 |
5% |
68% |
|
187 |
5% |
62% |
|
188 |
5% |
58% |
|
189 |
6% |
53% |
Median |
190 |
5% |
47% |
|
191 |
5% |
42% |
|
192 |
5% |
38% |
|
193 |
5% |
33% |
|
194 |
5% |
28% |
|
195 |
4% |
23% |
|
196 |
4% |
18% |
|
197 |
4% |
14% |
|
198 |
2% |
10% |
|
199 |
2% |
8% |
|
200 |
2% |
6% |
|
201 |
1.4% |
4% |
|
202 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
203 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
204 |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
205 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
206 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
207 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
208 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
209 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
210 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
157 |
0% |
100% |
|
158 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
159 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
160 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
161 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
162 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
163 |
0.4% |
99.4% |
|
164 |
0.4% |
99.0% |
|
165 |
0.5% |
98.7% |
|
166 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
167 |
0.9% |
97% |
|
168 |
1.0% |
97% |
|
169 |
1.2% |
96% |
|
170 |
1.4% |
94% |
|
171 |
2% |
93% |
|
172 |
2% |
91% |
|
173 |
3% |
89% |
|
174 |
3% |
87% |
|
175 |
3% |
84% |
|
176 |
4% |
81% |
Majority |
177 |
4% |
77% |
|
178 |
5% |
73% |
|
179 |
5% |
68% |
|
180 |
6% |
63% |
|
181 |
5% |
57% |
|
182 |
6% |
52% |
Median |
183 |
5% |
46% |
|
184 |
6% |
41% |
|
185 |
5% |
35% |
|
186 |
5% |
30% |
|
187 |
5% |
25% |
|
188 |
4% |
20% |
|
189 |
4% |
16% |
|
190 |
3% |
13% |
|
191 |
3% |
10% |
|
192 |
2% |
7% |
|
193 |
1.5% |
5% |
|
194 |
1.1% |
3% |
|
195 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
196 |
0.6% |
1.5% |
|
197 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
198 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
199 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
200 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
201 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
202 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
203 |
0% |
0% |
|
204 |
0% |
0% |
|
205 |
0% |
0% |
|
206 |
0% |
0% |
|
207 |
0% |
0% |
|
208 |
0% |
0% |
|
209 |
0% |
0% |
|
210 |
0% |
0% |
|
211 |
0% |
0% |
|
212 |
0% |
0% |
|
213 |
0% |
0% |
|
214 |
0% |
0% |
|
215 |
0% |
0% |
|
216 |
0% |
0% |
|
217 |
0% |
0% |
|
218 |
0% |
0% |
|
219 |
0% |
0% |
|
220 |
0% |
0% |
|
221 |
0% |
0% |
|
222 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
117 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
118 |
0% |
100% |
|
119 |
0% |
100% |
|
120 |
0% |
100% |
|
121 |
0% |
100% |
|
122 |
0% |
100% |
|
123 |
0% |
100% |
|
124 |
0% |
100% |
|
125 |
0% |
100% |
|
126 |
0% |
100% |
|
127 |
0% |
100% |
|
128 |
0% |
100% |
|
129 |
0% |
100% |
|
130 |
0% |
100% |
|
131 |
0% |
100% |
|
132 |
0% |
100% |
|
133 |
0% |
100% |
|
134 |
0% |
100% |
|
135 |
0% |
100% |
|
136 |
0% |
100% |
|
137 |
0% |
100% |
|
138 |
0% |
100% |
|
139 |
0% |
100% |
|
140 |
0% |
100% |
|
141 |
0% |
100% |
|
142 |
0% |
100% |
|
143 |
0% |
100% |
|
144 |
0% |
100% |
|
145 |
0% |
100% |
|
146 |
0% |
100% |
|
147 |
0% |
100% |
|
148 |
0% |
100% |
|
149 |
0% |
100% |
|
150 |
0% |
100% |
|
151 |
0% |
100% |
|
152 |
0% |
100% |
|
153 |
0% |
100% |
|
154 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
155 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
156 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
157 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
158 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
|
159 |
0.4% |
99.1% |
|
160 |
0.5% |
98.7% |
|
161 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
162 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
163 |
1.3% |
97% |
|
164 |
1.4% |
95% |
|
165 |
2% |
94% |
|
166 |
2% |
92% |
|
167 |
3% |
90% |
|
168 |
3% |
88% |
|
169 |
3% |
85% |
|
170 |
3% |
82% |
|
171 |
4% |
79% |
|
172 |
5% |
74% |
|
173 |
4% |
70% |
|
174 |
4% |
65% |
|
175 |
5% |
61% |
|
176 |
5% |
56% |
Median, Majority |
177 |
5% |
51% |
|
178 |
5% |
46% |
|
179 |
5% |
41% |
|
180 |
5% |
36% |
|
181 |
5% |
31% |
|
182 |
4% |
26% |
|
183 |
4% |
22% |
|
184 |
3% |
18% |
|
185 |
3% |
15% |
|
186 |
2% |
12% |
|
187 |
2% |
9% |
|
188 |
2% |
7% |
|
189 |
1.1% |
6% |
|
190 |
1.1% |
4% |
|
191 |
0.9% |
3% |
|
192 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
193 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
194 |
0.4% |
1.5% |
|
195 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
|
196 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
197 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
198 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
199 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
200 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
201 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
202 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
146 |
0% |
100% |
|
147 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
148 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
149 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
150 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
151 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
152 |
0.3% |
99.3% |
|
153 |
0.4% |
99.0% |
|
154 |
0.7% |
98.5% |
|
155 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
156 |
1.2% |
97% |
|
157 |
2% |
96% |
|
158 |
1.4% |
94% |
|
159 |
2% |
93% |
|
160 |
2% |
91% |
|
161 |
3% |
89% |
|
162 |
3% |
86% |
|
163 |
3% |
83% |
|
164 |
3% |
80% |
|
165 |
4% |
77% |
|
166 |
4% |
73% |
|
167 |
5% |
68% |
|
168 |
5% |
64% |
|
169 |
5% |
59% |
Last Result |
170 |
5% |
54% |
Median |
171 |
5% |
49% |
|
172 |
5% |
44% |
|
173 |
5% |
40% |
|
174 |
5% |
35% |
|
175 |
5% |
30% |
|
176 |
4% |
25% |
Majority |
177 |
4% |
21% |
|
178 |
3% |
18% |
|
179 |
3% |
15% |
|
180 |
3% |
12% |
|
181 |
2% |
9% |
|
182 |
2% |
7% |
|
183 |
1.5% |
5% |
|
184 |
1.1% |
4% |
|
185 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
186 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
187 |
0.6% |
1.4% |
|
188 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
189 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
190 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
191 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
192 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
193 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
112 |
0% |
100% |
|
113 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
114 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
115 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
116 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
117 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
|
118 |
0.6% |
99.1% |
|
119 |
0.8% |
98.5% |
|
120 |
1.3% |
98% |
|
121 |
1.3% |
96% |
|
122 |
2% |
95% |
|
123 |
2% |
93% |
|
124 |
3% |
91% |
|
125 |
3% |
88% |
|
126 |
4% |
85% |
|
127 |
4% |
81% |
|
128 |
4% |
78% |
|
129 |
5% |
74% |
|
130 |
5% |
69% |
|
131 |
4% |
64% |
|
132 |
4% |
60% |
|
133 |
5% |
55% |
Median |
134 |
5% |
50% |
|
135 |
5% |
45% |
|
136 |
5% |
41% |
|
137 |
4% |
35% |
|
138 |
5% |
31% |
|
139 |
5% |
26% |
|
140 |
3% |
21% |
|
141 |
3% |
18% |
|
142 |
3% |
15% |
|
143 |
2% |
12% |
|
144 |
2% |
9% |
|
145 |
2% |
7% |
|
146 |
1.3% |
6% |
|
147 |
1.2% |
4% |
|
148 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
149 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
150 |
0.4% |
1.5% |
|
151 |
0.4% |
1.1% |
|
152 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
153 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
154 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
155 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
156 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
157 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
158 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
159 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Popular – Vox
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
86 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
87 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
88 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
89 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
|
90 |
0.4% |
99.2% |
|
91 |
0.5% |
98.8% |
|
92 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
93 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
94 |
1.0% |
97% |
|
95 |
2% |
96% |
|
96 |
2% |
94% |
|
97 |
2% |
92% |
|
98 |
3% |
90% |
|
99 |
3% |
88% |
|
100 |
4% |
85% |
|
101 |
4% |
81% |
|
102 |
5% |
77% |
|
103 |
5% |
72% |
|
104 |
6% |
67% |
|
105 |
6% |
61% |
|
106 |
7% |
55% |
|
107 |
7% |
48% |
Median |
108 |
6% |
41% |
|
109 |
5% |
35% |
|
110 |
5% |
30% |
|
111 |
5% |
25% |
|
112 |
4% |
20% |
|
113 |
3% |
16% |
|
114 |
2% |
12% |
|
115 |
2% |
10% |
|
116 |
2% |
7% |
|
117 |
1.4% |
5% |
|
118 |
1.0% |
4% |
|
119 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
120 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
121 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
122 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
123 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
124 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
125 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
126 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
127 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
128 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
129 |
0% |
0% |
|
130 |
0% |
0% |
|
131 |
0% |
0% |
|
132 |
0% |
0% |
|
133 |
0% |
0% |
|
134 |
0% |
0% |
|
135 |
0% |
0% |
|
136 |
0% |
0% |
|
137 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
76 |
0% |
100% |
|
77 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
78 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
79 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
80 |
0.4% |
99.4% |
|
81 |
0.5% |
99.0% |
|
82 |
0.9% |
98.6% |
|
83 |
1.3% |
98% |
|
84 |
2% |
96% |
|
85 |
3% |
94% |
Last Result |
86 |
3% |
92% |
|
87 |
5% |
89% |
|
88 |
6% |
84% |
|
89 |
5% |
78% |
|
90 |
5% |
73% |
|
91 |
5% |
68% |
|
92 |
5% |
64% |
|
93 |
7% |
58% |
|
94 |
7% |
51% |
Median |
95 |
6% |
44% |
|
96 |
5% |
38% |
|
97 |
5% |
33% |
|
98 |
5% |
28% |
|
99 |
3% |
23% |
|
100 |
4% |
20% |
|
101 |
3% |
16% |
|
102 |
2% |
13% |
|
103 |
3% |
11% |
|
104 |
2% |
8% |
|
105 |
2% |
6% |
|
106 |
1.2% |
4% |
|
107 |
0.9% |
3% |
|
108 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
109 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
110 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
111 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
112 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
113 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
114 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
115 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
116 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Popular
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
68 |
0% |
100% |
|
69 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
70 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
72 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
73 |
0.5% |
99.4% |
|
74 |
0.9% |
98.8% |
|
75 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
76 |
2% |
97% |
|
77 |
2% |
95% |
|
78 |
2% |
93% |
|
79 |
2% |
91% |
|
80 |
2% |
89% |
|
81 |
3% |
87% |
|
82 |
3% |
84% |
|
83 |
3% |
81% |
|
84 |
4% |
78% |
|
85 |
6% |
73% |
|
86 |
7% |
67% |
|
87 |
7% |
60% |
|
88 |
9% |
53% |
Median |
89 |
8% |
44% |
|
90 |
7% |
36% |
|
91 |
5% |
29% |
|
92 |
5% |
24% |
|
93 |
4% |
19% |
|
94 |
4% |
16% |
|
95 |
2% |
12% |
|
96 |
2% |
9% |
|
97 |
2% |
7% |
|
98 |
1.4% |
5% |
|
99 |
1.1% |
4% |
|
100 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
101 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
102 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
103 |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
104 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
105 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
106 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
107 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
108 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
109 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
110 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
111 |
0% |
0% |
|
112 |
0% |
0% |
|
113 |
0% |
0% |
|
114 |
0% |
0% |
|
115 |
0% |
0% |
|
116 |
0% |
0% |
|
117 |
0% |
0% |
|
118 |
0% |
0% |
|
119 |
0% |
0% |
|
120 |
0% |
0% |
|
121 |
0% |
0% |
|
122 |
0% |
0% |
|
123 |
0% |
0% |
|
124 |
0% |
0% |
|
125 |
0% |
0% |
|
126 |
0% |
0% |
|
127 |
0% |
0% |
|
128 |
0% |
0% |
|
129 |
0% |
0% |
|
130 |
0% |
0% |
|
131 |
0% |
0% |
|
132 |
0% |
0% |
|
133 |
0% |
0% |
|
134 |
0% |
0% |
|
135 |
0% |
0% |
|
136 |
0% |
0% |
|
137 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Invymark
- Commissioner(s): laSexta
- Fieldwork period: 14–18 January 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.67%