Opinion Poll by Celeste-Tel for eldiario.es, 4–8 February 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 23.7% | 22.1–25.4% | 21.7–25.9% | 21.3–26.3% | 20.6–27.2% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 23.1% | 21.5–24.8% | 21.1–25.3% | 20.7–25.7% | 20.0–26.5% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 19.2% | 17.7–20.8% | 17.3–21.2% | 17.0–21.6% | 16.3–22.4% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 15.8% | 14.5–17.3% | 14.1–17.7% | 13.8–18.1% | 13.2–18.8% |
| Vox | 0.2% | 8.9% | 7.9–10.1% | 7.6–10.5% | 7.4–10.7% | 6.9–11.3% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.3–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 2.0–4.0% | 1.8–4.4% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.3–2.3% | 1.2–2.5% | 1.1–2.7% | 0.9–3.0% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.7% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.3% |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–1.9% | 0.5–2.2% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.8% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 98 | 87–103 | 87–106 | 84–108 | 82–111 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 93 | 89–108 | 85–108 | 81–109 | 79–115 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 63 | 59–69 | 58–72 | 57–73 | 53–78 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 50 | 39–58 | 38–58 | 36–58 | 34–62 |
| Vox | 0 | 19 | 17–22 | 15–24 | 14–24 | 12–27 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 9 | 13 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 7–15 | 7–17 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 8 | 6 | 4–10 | 4–10 | 4–10 | 3–11 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 5 | 5 | 4–7 | 3–7 | 3–8 | 3–9 |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 2 | 3 | 1–5 | 1–7 | 1–7 | 0–7 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 1 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–4 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 80 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 84 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 85 | 0.7% | 97% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 87 | 10% | 96% | |
| 88 | 6% | 85% | |
| 89 | 3% | 79% | |
| 90 | 2% | 76% | |
| 91 | 3% | 74% | |
| 92 | 2% | 71% | |
| 93 | 0.4% | 69% | |
| 94 | 3% | 68% | |
| 95 | 1.1% | 65% | |
| 96 | 0.5% | 64% | |
| 97 | 12% | 64% | |
| 98 | 32% | 51% | Median |
| 99 | 1.1% | 19% | |
| 100 | 2% | 18% | |
| 101 | 2% | 16% | |
| 102 | 0.6% | 15% | |
| 103 | 8% | 14% | |
| 104 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 106 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 107 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 108 | 2% | 4% | |
| 109 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 110 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 111 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 81 | 1.5% | 99.0% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 85 | 2% | 97% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 87 | 3% | 94% | |
| 88 | 0.9% | 91% | |
| 89 | 3% | 90% | |
| 90 | 33% | 87% | |
| 91 | 3% | 54% | |
| 92 | 1.4% | 52% | |
| 93 | 2% | 50% | Median |
| 94 | 6% | 48% | |
| 95 | 0.8% | 42% | |
| 96 | 2% | 42% | |
| 97 | 3% | 40% | |
| 98 | 9% | 37% | |
| 99 | 0.8% | 28% | |
| 100 | 2% | 27% | |
| 101 | 6% | 25% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 19% | |
| 103 | 1.4% | 18% | |
| 104 | 1.3% | 17% | |
| 105 | 2% | 16% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 14% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 108 | 11% | 14% | |
| 109 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 112 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 56 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 57 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 58 | 6% | 97% | |
| 59 | 2% | 91% | |
| 60 | 0.9% | 89% | |
| 61 | 1.4% | 88% | |
| 62 | 18% | 87% | |
| 63 | 33% | 69% | Median |
| 64 | 4% | 36% | |
| 65 | 3% | 31% | |
| 66 | 0.8% | 28% | |
| 67 | 3% | 27% | |
| 68 | 8% | 24% | |
| 69 | 6% | 15% | |
| 70 | 1.4% | 9% | |
| 71 | 2% | 8% | |
| 72 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 73 | 2% | 5% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 36 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 37 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 39 | 12% | 95% | |
| 40 | 6% | 83% | |
| 41 | 4% | 77% | |
| 42 | 1.0% | 74% | |
| 43 | 5% | 73% | |
| 44 | 3% | 68% | |
| 45 | 1.4% | 65% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 64% | |
| 47 | 1.0% | 63% | |
| 48 | 1.1% | 62% | |
| 49 | 2% | 61% | |
| 50 | 32% | 59% | Median |
| 51 | 1.3% | 27% | |
| 52 | 2% | 26% | |
| 53 | 1.1% | 24% | |
| 54 | 7% | 23% | |
| 55 | 2% | 16% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 57 | 2% | 14% | |
| 58 | 9% | 12% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 14 | 2% | 98% | |
| 15 | 2% | 97% | |
| 16 | 3% | 94% | |
| 17 | 15% | 91% | |
| 18 | 25% | 77% | |
| 19 | 4% | 52% | Median |
| 20 | 3% | 48% | |
| 21 | 34% | 44% | |
| 22 | 2% | 10% | |
| 23 | 3% | 8% | |
| 24 | 4% | 5% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 3% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 9 | 11% | 96% | Last Result |
| 10 | 5% | 85% | |
| 11 | 4% | 79% | |
| 12 | 20% | 75% | |
| 13 | 47% | 55% | Median |
| 14 | 3% | 8% | |
| 15 | 3% | 5% | |
| 16 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 12% | 99.0% | |
| 5 | 16% | 87% | |
| 6 | 50% | 72% | Median |
| 7 | 2% | 22% | |
| 8 | 4% | 19% | Last Result |
| 9 | 2% | 16% | |
| 10 | 13% | 13% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 6% | 99.6% | |
| 4 | 4% | 94% | |
| 5 | 43% | 90% | Last Result, Median |
| 6 | 28% | 46% | |
| 7 | 15% | 19% | |
| 8 | 2% | 3% | |
| 9 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 11% | 98.9% | |
| 2 | 28% | 88% | Last Result |
| 3 | 35% | 60% | Median |
| 4 | 13% | 25% | |
| 5 | 2% | 12% | |
| 6 | 3% | 10% | |
| 7 | 6% | 6% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15% | 100% | |
| 1 | 74% | 85% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 9% | 10% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 254 | 251 | 100% | 249–267 | 246–267 | 242–267 | 237–269 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 211 | 100% | 198–215 | 197–217 | 194–218 | 187–227 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular | 222 | 188 | 98% | 182–205 | 181–205 | 177–205 | 170–209 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox | 169 | 177 | 55% | 173–188 | 169–188 | 168–192 | 162–197 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 180 | 173 | 10% | 161–176 | 161–180 | 157–181 | 152–187 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 174 | 165 | 16% | 158–176 | 155–176 | 154–178 | 147–183 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 161 | 2% | 153–167 | 148–171 | 147–175 | 143–178 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 170 | 159 | 2% | 154–171 | 151–171 | 150–174 | 143–178 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 159 | 1.5% | 153–170 | 151–170 | 148–173 | 142–177 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 173 | 163 | 1.1% | 153–168 | 153–169 | 147–172 | 142–179 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu | 167 | 160 | 0.5% | 150–164 | 149–167 | 143–170 | 140–176 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 163 | 153 | 0% | 144–157 | 143–162 | 138–163 | 132–168 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 161 | 151 | 0% | 142–154 | 140–156 | 134–159 | 130–166 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 146 | 0% | 136–149 | 134–151 | 128–153 | 124–161 |
| Partido Popular – Vox | 137 | 112 | 0% | 106–126 | 105–126 | 101–127 | 96–132 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 93 | 0% | 89–108 | 85–108 | 81–109 | 79–115 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 98 | 0% | 87–103 | 87–106 | 84–108 | 82–111 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 234 | 0% | 100% | |
| 235 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 236 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 237 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 238 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 239 | 0% | 98% | |
| 240 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 241 | 0% | 98% | |
| 242 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 243 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 244 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 245 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 246 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 247 | 1.1% | 94% | |
| 248 | 2% | 93% | |
| 249 | 1.2% | 91% | |
| 250 | 2% | 90% | |
| 251 | 38% | 87% | |
| 252 | 1.1% | 49% | |
| 253 | 10% | 48% | |
| 254 | 0.8% | 38% | Last Result, Median |
| 255 | 0.5% | 37% | |
| 256 | 3% | 37% | |
| 257 | 2% | 34% | |
| 258 | 2% | 32% | |
| 259 | 3% | 30% | |
| 260 | 0.8% | 26% | |
| 261 | 1.1% | 26% | |
| 262 | 7% | 25% | |
| 263 | 1.3% | 17% | |
| 264 | 1.0% | 16% | |
| 265 | 0.9% | 15% | |
| 266 | 0.4% | 14% | |
| 267 | 12% | 14% | |
| 268 | 2% | 2% | |
| 269 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 270 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 271 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 273 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 274 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 275 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 183 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 184 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 186 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 187 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 190 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 192 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 193 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 195 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 196 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 197 | 2% | 97% | |
| 198 | 12% | 95% | |
| 199 | 2% | 83% | |
| 200 | 1.4% | 81% | |
| 201 | 4% | 80% | |
| 202 | 2% | 75% | |
| 203 | 0.2% | 73% | |
| 204 | 2% | 73% | |
| 205 | 2% | 71% | |
| 206 | 5% | 69% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 64% | |
| 208 | 0.9% | 64% | |
| 209 | 9% | 63% | |
| 210 | 2% | 54% | |
| 211 | 33% | 53% | Median |
| 212 | 0.8% | 20% | |
| 213 | 4% | 19% | |
| 214 | 0.6% | 15% | |
| 215 | 6% | 14% | |
| 216 | 2% | 8% | |
| 217 | 2% | 5% | |
| 218 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 219 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 220 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 221 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 222 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 223 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 224 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 225 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 226 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 227 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 228 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 229 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 230 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 167 | 0% | 100% | |
| 168 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 169 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 170 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 171 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 175 | 1.0% | 98.8% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 98% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 179 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 180 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 181 | 2% | 95% | |
| 182 | 7% | 93% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 86% | |
| 184 | 2% | 85% | |
| 185 | 10% | 84% | |
| 186 | 0.7% | 74% | |
| 187 | 3% | 73% | |
| 188 | 33% | 71% | |
| 189 | 0.9% | 37% | |
| 190 | 0.8% | 36% | |
| 191 | 1.1% | 36% | Median |
| 192 | 2% | 34% | |
| 193 | 1.2% | 33% | |
| 194 | 4% | 32% | |
| 195 | 2% | 28% | |
| 196 | 1.1% | 26% | |
| 197 | 3% | 25% | |
| 198 | 0.6% | 23% | |
| 199 | 0.5% | 22% | |
| 200 | 3% | 22% | |
| 201 | 0.7% | 18% | |
| 202 | 0.5% | 18% | |
| 203 | 0.9% | 17% | |
| 204 | 4% | 16% | |
| 205 | 11% | 12% | |
| 206 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 209 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 210 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 162 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 163 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 98.7% | |
| 166 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 167 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 168 | 3% | 98% | |
| 169 | 0.8% | 95% | Last Result |
| 170 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 171 | 2% | 94% | |
| 172 | 1.3% | 92% | |
| 173 | 2% | 91% | |
| 174 | 34% | 89% | |
| 175 | 0.9% | 55% | Median |
| 176 | 0.4% | 55% | Majority |
| 177 | 7% | 54% | |
| 178 | 4% | 47% | |
| 179 | 3% | 43% | |
| 180 | 1.4% | 39% | |
| 181 | 6% | 38% | |
| 182 | 2% | 32% | |
| 183 | 9% | 30% | |
| 184 | 2% | 22% | |
| 185 | 1.4% | 20% | |
| 186 | 2% | 18% | |
| 187 | 0.2% | 16% | |
| 188 | 12% | 16% | |
| 189 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 190 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 191 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 192 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 193 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 194 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 197 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 147 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 156 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 157 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 158 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 161 | 12% | 96% | |
| 162 | 2% | 84% | |
| 163 | 0.7% | 82% | |
| 164 | 0.5% | 82% | |
| 165 | 3% | 81% | |
| 166 | 8% | 78% | |
| 167 | 2% | 70% | |
| 168 | 7% | 68% | |
| 169 | 3% | 62% | |
| 170 | 2% | 59% | |
| 171 | 2% | 57% | |
| 172 | 5% | 55% | |
| 173 | 5% | 50% | |
| 174 | 2% | 45% | |
| 175 | 34% | 44% | Median |
| 176 | 1.1% | 10% | Majority |
| 177 | 2% | 9% | |
| 178 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 179 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 180 | 0.6% | 5% | Last Result |
| 181 | 3% | 5% | |
| 182 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 185 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 186 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 187 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 146 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 152 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 153 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 154 | 2% | 98% | |
| 155 | 2% | 96% | |
| 156 | 3% | 95% | |
| 157 | 1.0% | 92% | |
| 158 | 32% | 91% | |
| 159 | 0.9% | 59% | |
| 160 | 0.6% | 58% | |
| 161 | 3% | 57% | Median |
| 162 | 1.4% | 54% | |
| 163 | 1.4% | 53% | |
| 164 | 1.0% | 51% | |
| 165 | 5% | 50% | |
| 166 | 4% | 45% | |
| 167 | 3% | 41% | |
| 168 | 8% | 38% | |
| 169 | 0.6% | 30% | |
| 170 | 2% | 30% | |
| 171 | 0.9% | 28% | |
| 172 | 2% | 27% | |
| 173 | 8% | 25% | |
| 174 | 0.9% | 17% | Last Result |
| 175 | 0.2% | 16% | |
| 176 | 12% | 16% | Majority |
| 177 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 178 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 179 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 181 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 183 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 143 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 144 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 145 | 0.5% | 98.5% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 147 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 148 | 2% | 97% | |
| 149 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 151 | 1.1% | 94% | |
| 152 | 2% | 93% | |
| 153 | 2% | 91% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 89% | |
| 155 | 9% | 88% | |
| 156 | 4% | 79% | |
| 157 | 6% | 75% | |
| 158 | 2% | 69% | |
| 159 | 12% | 67% | |
| 160 | 0.7% | 56% | |
| 161 | 36% | 55% | Median |
| 162 | 0.5% | 19% | |
| 163 | 1.0% | 19% | |
| 164 | 2% | 18% | |
| 165 | 5% | 16% | |
| 166 | 0.6% | 11% | |
| 167 | 0.8% | 10% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 10% | |
| 169 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 170 | 3% | 9% | |
| 171 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 172 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 173 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 174 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 175 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 176 | 0.7% | 2% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 178 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 141 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 145 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 148 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 149 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 150 | 2% | 98% | |
| 151 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 152 | 3% | 95% | |
| 153 | 1.2% | 92% | |
| 154 | 32% | 90% | |
| 155 | 2% | 58% | |
| 156 | 1.2% | 57% | |
| 157 | 1.1% | 56% | Median |
| 158 | 2% | 55% | |
| 159 | 8% | 53% | |
| 160 | 1.1% | 45% | |
| 161 | 0.5% | 44% | |
| 162 | 2% | 43% | |
| 163 | 1.1% | 41% | |
| 164 | 10% | 40% | |
| 165 | 1.2% | 30% | |
| 166 | 2% | 29% | |
| 167 | 9% | 27% | |
| 168 | 2% | 18% | |
| 169 | 0.5% | 16% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 16% | Last Result |
| 171 | 12% | 15% | |
| 172 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 173 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 174 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 176 | 0.8% | 2% | Majority |
| 177 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 179 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 142 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 145 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 146 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 148 | 2% | 98% | |
| 149 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 151 | 5% | 95% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 153 | 32% | 90% | |
| 154 | 1.5% | 58% | |
| 155 | 1.5% | 57% | |
| 156 | 0.6% | 55% | Median |
| 157 | 3% | 55% | |
| 158 | 0.5% | 52% | |
| 159 | 8% | 51% | |
| 160 | 0.9% | 43% | |
| 161 | 0.7% | 42% | |
| 162 | 4% | 42% | |
| 163 | 7% | 38% | |
| 164 | 2% | 31% | |
| 165 | 1.0% | 28% | |
| 166 | 10% | 27% | |
| 167 | 1.2% | 18% | |
| 168 | 0.9% | 16% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 15% | Last Result |
| 170 | 12% | 15% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 174 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 175 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 1.5% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 143 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 144 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 146 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 147 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 148 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 150 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 152 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 153 | 12% | 95% | |
| 154 | 2% | 83% | |
| 155 | 0.6% | 81% | |
| 156 | 3% | 81% | |
| 157 | 0.8% | 78% | |
| 158 | 9% | 77% | |
| 159 | 1.1% | 68% | |
| 160 | 2% | 67% | |
| 161 | 9% | 65% | |
| 162 | 4% | 56% | |
| 163 | 5% | 52% | |
| 164 | 1.2% | 47% | |
| 165 | 2% | 45% | |
| 166 | 0.6% | 43% | |
| 167 | 33% | 43% | Median |
| 168 | 3% | 10% | |
| 169 | 4% | 8% | |
| 170 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 171 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 172 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 173 | 0.7% | 2% | Last Result |
| 174 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 176 | 0% | 1.1% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 179 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 180 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 139 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 141 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 142 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 143 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 144 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 145 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 146 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 147 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 148 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 149 | 2% | 95% | |
| 150 | 13% | 94% | |
| 151 | 0.8% | 80% | |
| 152 | 1.3% | 79% | |
| 153 | 1.0% | 78% | |
| 154 | 0.7% | 77% | |
| 155 | 11% | 76% | |
| 156 | 1.4% | 66% | |
| 157 | 11% | 64% | |
| 158 | 2% | 53% | |
| 159 | 1.1% | 51% | |
| 160 | 2% | 50% | |
| 161 | 2% | 48% | |
| 162 | 1.0% | 46% | |
| 163 | 3% | 45% | |
| 164 | 33% | 42% | Median |
| 165 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 166 | 3% | 8% | |
| 167 | 0.3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 168 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 169 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 170 | 2% | 4% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 0.5% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 130 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 133 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 136 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 137 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 138 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 139 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 141 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 143 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 144 | 11% | 95% | |
| 145 | 2% | 83% | |
| 146 | 2% | 81% | |
| 147 | 2% | 79% | |
| 148 | 2% | 77% | |
| 149 | 9% | 76% | |
| 150 | 3% | 67% | |
| 151 | 3% | 64% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 61% | |
| 153 | 12% | 61% | |
| 154 | 0.8% | 48% | |
| 155 | 5% | 48% | |
| 156 | 31% | 42% | Median |
| 157 | 2% | 11% | |
| 158 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 160 | 2% | 8% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 162 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 163 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 164 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 1.5% | |
| 166 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 127 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 133 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 135 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 137 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 138 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 139 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 141 | 2% | 95% | |
| 142 | 12% | 93% | |
| 143 | 3% | 81% | |
| 144 | 2% | 78% | |
| 145 | 2% | 77% | |
| 146 | 2% | 74% | |
| 147 | 0.9% | 72% | |
| 148 | 10% | 71% | |
| 149 | 6% | 61% | |
| 150 | 1.2% | 54% | |
| 151 | 9% | 53% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 44% | |
| 153 | 34% | 44% | Median |
| 154 | 1.0% | 11% | |
| 155 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 156 | 4% | 9% | |
| 157 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 158 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 159 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 162 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 166 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 123 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 127 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 128 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 129 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 130 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 131 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 132 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 133 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 135 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 136 | 12% | 94% | |
| 137 | 3% | 82% | |
| 138 | 3% | 80% | |
| 139 | 3% | 77% | |
| 140 | 0.6% | 74% | |
| 141 | 9% | 73% | |
| 142 | 2% | 64% | |
| 143 | 5% | 62% | |
| 144 | 5% | 57% | |
| 145 | 2% | 52% | |
| 146 | 6% | 51% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 45% | |
| 148 | 33% | 44% | Median |
| 149 | 4% | 11% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 151 | 3% | 7% | |
| 152 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 153 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 156 | 0.5% | 2% | Last Result |
| 157 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 158 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 161 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 100 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 101 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 102 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 104 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 105 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 106 | 4% | 94% | |
| 107 | 2% | 90% | |
| 108 | 1.2% | 87% | |
| 109 | 0.9% | 86% | |
| 110 | 3% | 85% | |
| 111 | 31% | 82% | |
| 112 | 6% | 50% | Median |
| 113 | 0.6% | 44% | |
| 114 | 1.3% | 43% | |
| 115 | 9% | 42% | |
| 116 | 3% | 33% | |
| 117 | 0.8% | 30% | |
| 118 | 2% | 29% | |
| 119 | 6% | 28% | |
| 120 | 0.8% | 22% | |
| 121 | 2% | 21% | |
| 122 | 1.2% | 19% | |
| 123 | 0.9% | 18% | |
| 124 | 2% | 17% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 126 | 12% | 15% | |
| 127 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 128 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 1.5% | |
| 130 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 132 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 81 | 1.5% | 99.0% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 85 | 2% | 97% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 87 | 3% | 94% | |
| 88 | 0.9% | 91% | |
| 89 | 3% | 90% | |
| 90 | 33% | 87% | |
| 91 | 3% | 54% | |
| 92 | 1.4% | 52% | |
| 93 | 2% | 50% | Median |
| 94 | 6% | 48% | |
| 95 | 0.8% | 42% | |
| 96 | 2% | 42% | |
| 97 | 3% | 40% | |
| 98 | 9% | 37% | |
| 99 | 0.8% | 28% | |
| 100 | 2% | 27% | |
| 101 | 6% | 25% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 19% | |
| 103 | 1.4% | 18% | |
| 104 | 1.3% | 17% | |
| 105 | 2% | 16% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 14% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 108 | 11% | 14% | |
| 109 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 112 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 80 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 84 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 85 | 0.7% | 97% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 87 | 10% | 96% | |
| 88 | 6% | 85% | |
| 89 | 3% | 79% | |
| 90 | 2% | 76% | |
| 91 | 3% | 74% | |
| 92 | 2% | 71% | |
| 93 | 0.4% | 69% | |
| 94 | 3% | 68% | |
| 95 | 1.1% | 65% | |
| 96 | 0.5% | 64% | |
| 97 | 12% | 64% | |
| 98 | 32% | 51% | Median |
| 99 | 1.1% | 19% | |
| 100 | 2% | 18% | |
| 101 | 2% | 16% | |
| 102 | 0.6% | 15% | |
| 103 | 8% | 14% | |
| 104 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 106 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 107 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 108 | 2% | 4% | |
| 109 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 110 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 111 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Celeste-Tel
- Commissioner(s): eldiario.es
- Fieldwork period: 4–8 February 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1100
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.50%