Opinion Poll by GAD3 for La Vanguardia, 12–15 February 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 28.2% | 26.5–29.9% | 26.1–30.4% | 25.7–30.8% | 24.9–31.6% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 23.6% | 22.1–25.2% | 21.6–25.7% | 21.3–26.1% | 20.5–26.9% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 17.1% | 15.7–18.5% | 15.4–19.0% | 15.1–19.3% | 14.4–20.0% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 12.4% | 11.3–13.7% | 10.9–14.1% | 10.7–14.4% | 10.1–15.1% |
| Vox | 0.2% | 8.8% | 7.9–10.0% | 7.6–10.3% | 7.3–10.6% | 6.9–11.2% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.3–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 2.0–3.9% | 1.8–4.3% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.3% | 1.0–2.5% | 0.9–2.8% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.7% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.2% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 119 | 111–126 | 108–127 | 106–131 | 102–136 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 97 | 87–105 | 87–107 | 85–109 | 81–114 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 58 | 51–63 | 51–64 | 49–66 | 45–69 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 31 | 27–36 | 26–39 | 24–39 | 23–42 |
| Vox | 0 | 19 | 13–22 | 13–23 | 13–25 | 11–28 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 9 | 12 | 9–15 | 9–15 | 9–16 | 7–18 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 8 | 7 | 4–8 | 4–10 | 3–10 | 1–10 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 5 | 6 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 3–9 | 3–10 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 2 | 2 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–7 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 1 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 101 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 103 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 104 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 106 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 107 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 108 | 3% | 96% | |
| 109 | 1.3% | 93% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 91% | |
| 111 | 5% | 90% | |
| 112 | 3% | 86% | |
| 113 | 2% | 83% | |
| 114 | 9% | 81% | |
| 115 | 3% | 72% | |
| 116 | 6% | 69% | |
| 117 | 2% | 63% | |
| 118 | 4% | 62% | |
| 119 | 18% | 58% | Median |
| 120 | 10% | 39% | |
| 121 | 1.0% | 29% | |
| 122 | 2% | 28% | |
| 123 | 1.3% | 26% | |
| 124 | 3% | 25% | |
| 125 | 1.1% | 22% | |
| 126 | 14% | 20% | |
| 127 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 128 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 129 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 130 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 131 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 132 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 81 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 84 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 85 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 86 | 2% | 97% | |
| 87 | 7% | 95% | |
| 88 | 6% | 88% | |
| 89 | 2% | 82% | |
| 90 | 3% | 80% | |
| 91 | 0.4% | 77% | |
| 92 | 0.7% | 77% | |
| 93 | 4% | 76% | |
| 94 | 2% | 72% | |
| 95 | 12% | 70% | |
| 96 | 7% | 58% | |
| 97 | 2% | 51% | Median |
| 98 | 18% | 49% | |
| 99 | 1.3% | 31% | |
| 100 | 2% | 30% | |
| 101 | 9% | 27% | |
| 102 | 4% | 19% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 15% | |
| 104 | 2% | 15% | |
| 105 | 6% | 13% | |
| 106 | 2% | 7% | |
| 107 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 108 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 109 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 110 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 49 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 50 | 2% | 97% | |
| 51 | 7% | 96% | |
| 52 | 12% | 89% | |
| 53 | 3% | 76% | |
| 54 | 3% | 73% | |
| 55 | 2% | 71% | |
| 56 | 3% | 69% | |
| 57 | 11% | 66% | |
| 58 | 5% | 55% | Median |
| 59 | 3% | 50% | |
| 60 | 21% | 47% | |
| 61 | 4% | 26% | |
| 62 | 6% | 21% | |
| 63 | 7% | 15% | |
| 64 | 4% | 8% | |
| 65 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 66 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 67 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 24 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 25 | 2% | 97% | |
| 26 | 2% | 96% | |
| 27 | 6% | 94% | |
| 28 | 1.2% | 88% | |
| 29 | 30% | 87% | |
| 30 | 6% | 57% | |
| 31 | 3% | 51% | Median |
| 32 | 15% | 48% | |
| 33 | 5% | 33% | |
| 34 | 4% | 28% | |
| 35 | 3% | 24% | |
| 36 | 11% | 21% | |
| 37 | 2% | 10% | |
| 38 | 3% | 8% | |
| 39 | 3% | 5% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 13 | 10% | 99.1% | |
| 14 | 5% | 89% | |
| 15 | 6% | 84% | |
| 16 | 3% | 78% | |
| 17 | 4% | 75% | |
| 18 | 12% | 71% | |
| 19 | 38% | 60% | Median |
| 20 | 3% | 21% | |
| 21 | 6% | 18% | |
| 22 | 6% | 12% | |
| 23 | 2% | 6% | |
| 24 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 25 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 9 | 8% | 98% | Last Result |
| 10 | 6% | 90% | |
| 11 | 31% | 84% | |
| 12 | 10% | 53% | Median |
| 13 | 9% | 44% | |
| 14 | 23% | 34% | |
| 15 | 8% | 11% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 17 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 3 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 4 | 10% | 97% | |
| 5 | 15% | 87% | |
| 6 | 16% | 72% | |
| 7 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 8 | 31% | 40% | Last Result |
| 9 | 4% | 10% | |
| 10 | 5% | 6% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 25% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 2% | 75% | |
| 5 | 7% | 73% | Last Result |
| 6 | 28% | 66% | Median |
| 7 | 16% | 39% | |
| 8 | 20% | 23% | |
| 9 | 2% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19% | 100% | |
| 1 | 18% | 81% | |
| 2 | 35% | 63% | Last Result, Median |
| 3 | 11% | 29% | |
| 4 | 7% | 18% | |
| 5 | 8% | 11% | |
| 6 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 7 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19% | 100% | |
| 1 | 65% | 81% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 13% | 16% | |
| 3 | 2% | 3% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 254 | 273 | 100% | 265–281 | 262–281 | 261–282 | 255–283 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular | 222 | 217 | 100% | 207–221 | 204–224 | 202–226 | 199–230 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 208 | 100% | 197–218 | 195–219 | 192–221 | 187–225 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 180 | 175 | 46% | 170–184 | 168–187 | 165–190 | 159–197 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 178 | 65% | 166–184 | 164–188 | 162–188 | 156–193 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox | 169 | 174 | 39% | 165–179 | 161–181 | 159–184 | 152–189 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 173 | 167 | 21% | 161–176 | 159–179 | 155–183 | 150–189 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu | 167 | 162 | 6% | 157–172 | 154–176 | 150–178 | 146–185 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 174 | 161 | 0.8% | 153–170 | 149–171 | 147–173 | 141–177 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 163 | 156 | 1.1% | 152–165 | 148–168 | 146–171 | 142–179 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 170 | 156 | 0.1% | 148–163 | 144–167 | 142–168 | 136–172 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 161 | 154 | 0.6% | 149–164 | 146–166 | 142–168 | 139–177 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 155 | 0.1% | 147–162 | 143–166 | 141–167 | 135–171 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 148 | 0% | 143–157 | 140–160 | 136–163 | 133–171 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 119 | 0% | 111–126 | 108–127 | 106–131 | 102–136 |
| Partido Popular – Vox | 137 | 116 | 0% | 106–123 | 103–125 | 101–128 | 98–133 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 97 | 0% | 87–105 | 87–107 | 85–109 | 81–114 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 254 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 255 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 256 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 257 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 258 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 259 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 260 | 0.9% | 98.5% | |
| 261 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 262 | 3% | 97% | |
| 263 | 1.2% | 94% | |
| 264 | 2% | 93% | |
| 265 | 3% | 91% | |
| 266 | 3% | 89% | |
| 267 | 6% | 86% | |
| 268 | 3% | 80% | |
| 269 | 6% | 77% | |
| 270 | 2% | 71% | |
| 271 | 7% | 70% | |
| 272 | 10% | 62% | |
| 273 | 14% | 52% | |
| 274 | 2% | 38% | Median |
| 275 | 2% | 36% | |
| 276 | 2% | 34% | |
| 277 | 16% | 33% | |
| 278 | 4% | 17% | |
| 279 | 1.0% | 12% | |
| 280 | 0.4% | 11% | |
| 281 | 8% | 11% | |
| 282 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 283 | 2% | 2% | |
| 284 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 285 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 286 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 287 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 288 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 194 | 0% | 100% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 200 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 201 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 202 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 203 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 204 | 3% | 95% | |
| 205 | 0.6% | 92% | |
| 206 | 2% | 92% | |
| 207 | 6% | 90% | |
| 208 | 6% | 84% | |
| 209 | 2% | 78% | |
| 210 | 2% | 76% | |
| 211 | 2% | 74% | |
| 212 | 2% | 72% | |
| 213 | 2% | 70% | |
| 214 | 7% | 68% | |
| 215 | 8% | 61% | |
| 216 | 2% | 53% | Median |
| 217 | 15% | 50% | |
| 218 | 4% | 35% | |
| 219 | 5% | 31% | |
| 220 | 5% | 25% | |
| 221 | 12% | 20% | |
| 222 | 0.5% | 8% | Last Result |
| 223 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 224 | 3% | 7% | |
| 225 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 226 | 2% | 3% | |
| 227 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 229 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 230 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 231 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 232 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 233 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 235 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 236 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 237 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 238 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 181 | 0% | 100% | |
| 182 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 183 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 185 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 187 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 190 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 191 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 192 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 193 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 194 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 195 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 196 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 197 | 6% | 94% | |
| 198 | 0.9% | 88% | |
| 199 | 2% | 88% | |
| 200 | 2% | 86% | |
| 201 | 2% | 84% | |
| 202 | 1.4% | 82% | |
| 203 | 7% | 80% | |
| 204 | 0.7% | 73% | |
| 205 | 4% | 73% | |
| 206 | 3% | 69% | |
| 207 | 12% | 66% | |
| 208 | 20% | 54% | Median |
| 209 | 4% | 34% | |
| 210 | 2% | 29% | |
| 211 | 3% | 28% | |
| 212 | 0.8% | 24% | |
| 213 | 2% | 24% | |
| 214 | 1.0% | 22% | |
| 215 | 0.7% | 21% | |
| 216 | 5% | 20% | |
| 217 | 4% | 14% | |
| 218 | 2% | 10% | |
| 219 | 5% | 9% | |
| 220 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 221 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 222 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 223 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 224 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 225 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 227 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 229 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 230 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 162 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 163 | 0.8% | 98.7% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 165 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 166 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 167 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 168 | 3% | 95% | |
| 169 | 2% | 92% | |
| 170 | 1.0% | 90% | |
| 171 | 2% | 89% | |
| 172 | 17% | 87% | |
| 173 | 10% | 71% | |
| 174 | 9% | 60% | |
| 175 | 6% | 52% | |
| 176 | 3% | 46% | Majority |
| 177 | 2% | 43% | Median |
| 178 | 3% | 41% | |
| 179 | 2% | 39% | |
| 180 | 4% | 37% | Last Result |
| 181 | 5% | 33% | |
| 182 | 2% | 28% | |
| 183 | 16% | 27% | |
| 184 | 2% | 10% | |
| 185 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 186 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 187 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 188 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 189 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 190 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 191 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 193 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 195 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 197 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 152 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 158 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 162 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 163 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 164 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 165 | 4% | 95% | |
| 166 | 3% | 91% | |
| 167 | 4% | 88% | |
| 168 | 3% | 84% | |
| 169 | 2% | 81% | |
| 170 | 1.1% | 80% | |
| 171 | 7% | 79% | |
| 172 | 0.9% | 72% | |
| 173 | 2% | 71% | |
| 174 | 2% | 69% | |
| 175 | 2% | 66% | |
| 176 | 5% | 65% | Majority |
| 177 | 3% | 60% | Median |
| 178 | 12% | 56% | |
| 179 | 18% | 44% | |
| 180 | 6% | 26% | |
| 181 | 1.0% | 21% | |
| 182 | 3% | 20% | |
| 183 | 6% | 16% | |
| 184 | 0.6% | 10% | |
| 185 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 186 | 2% | 9% | |
| 187 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 188 | 3% | 6% | |
| 189 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 190 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 191 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 192 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 193 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 156 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 158 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 159 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 161 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 162 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 163 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 164 | 2% | 93% | |
| 165 | 1.4% | 91% | |
| 166 | 17% | 89% | |
| 167 | 1.3% | 73% | |
| 168 | 1.1% | 72% | |
| 169 | 8% | 70% | Last Result |
| 170 | 1.5% | 62% | |
| 171 | 2% | 61% | |
| 172 | 3% | 59% | |
| 173 | 3% | 56% | |
| 174 | 5% | 53% | Median |
| 175 | 8% | 47% | |
| 176 | 5% | 39% | Majority |
| 177 | 22% | 34% | |
| 178 | 2% | 12% | |
| 179 | 1.1% | 11% | |
| 180 | 2% | 9% | |
| 181 | 3% | 7% | |
| 182 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 183 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 184 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 185 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 186 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 187 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 189 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 152 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 153 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 154 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 156 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 157 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 159 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 160 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 161 | 3% | 93% | |
| 162 | 2% | 90% | |
| 163 | 2% | 87% | |
| 164 | 4% | 85% | |
| 165 | 12% | 81% | |
| 166 | 9% | 69% | |
| 167 | 15% | 60% | |
| 168 | 2% | 45% | |
| 169 | 3% | 42% | Median |
| 170 | 0.7% | 39% | |
| 171 | 1.3% | 38% | |
| 172 | 4% | 37% | |
| 173 | 5% | 33% | Last Result |
| 174 | 5% | 28% | |
| 175 | 2% | 23% | |
| 176 | 13% | 21% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 178 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 179 | 2% | 6% | |
| 180 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 181 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 184 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 185 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 186 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 189 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 146 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 149 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 150 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 151 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 152 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 153 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 154 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 155 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 156 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 157 | 3% | 93% | |
| 158 | 7% | 90% | |
| 159 | 1.2% | 83% | |
| 160 | 3% | 82% | |
| 161 | 18% | 78% | |
| 162 | 10% | 60% | |
| 163 | 4% | 50% | |
| 164 | 4% | 46% | Median |
| 165 | 2% | 43% | |
| 166 | 4% | 41% | |
| 167 | 3% | 37% | Last Result |
| 168 | 1.3% | 34% | |
| 169 | 16% | 33% | |
| 170 | 1.3% | 16% | |
| 171 | 5% | 15% | |
| 172 | 2% | 10% | |
| 173 | 2% | 8% | |
| 174 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 175 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 176 | 2% | 6% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 178 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 179 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 180 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 181 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 182 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 186 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 140 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 141 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 143 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 144 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 145 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 146 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 147 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 148 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 149 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 150 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 151 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 152 | 1.1% | 92% | |
| 153 | 2% | 91% | |
| 154 | 13% | 89% | |
| 155 | 6% | 77% | |
| 156 | 2% | 71% | |
| 157 | 6% | 69% | |
| 158 | 1.4% | 63% | |
| 159 | 5% | 61% | |
| 160 | 4% | 57% | |
| 161 | 22% | 53% | Median |
| 162 | 2% | 31% | |
| 163 | 5% | 29% | |
| 164 | 2% | 23% | |
| 165 | 2% | 21% | |
| 166 | 5% | 19% | |
| 167 | 2% | 15% | |
| 168 | 0.5% | 13% | |
| 169 | 2% | 12% | |
| 170 | 3% | 11% | |
| 171 | 3% | 7% | |
| 172 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 173 | 2% | 4% | |
| 174 | 0.6% | 2% | Last Result |
| 175 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 0.8% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 179 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 142 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 143 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 144 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 145 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 146 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 147 | 2% | 97% | |
| 148 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 149 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 150 | 2% | 94% | |
| 151 | 1.5% | 92% | |
| 152 | 3% | 90% | |
| 153 | 17% | 88% | |
| 154 | 14% | 71% | |
| 155 | 5% | 57% | |
| 156 | 5% | 52% | |
| 157 | 1.2% | 48% | |
| 158 | 1.4% | 47% | Median |
| 159 | 6% | 45% | |
| 160 | 2% | 39% | |
| 161 | 0.9% | 38% | |
| 162 | 12% | 37% | |
| 163 | 4% | 25% | Last Result |
| 164 | 6% | 21% | |
| 165 | 6% | 15% | |
| 166 | 1.4% | 9% | |
| 167 | 2% | 8% | |
| 168 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 169 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 170 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 171 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 173 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 174 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 175 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 1.1% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 179 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 136 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 139 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 141 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 142 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 143 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 144 | 2% | 97% | |
| 145 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 146 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 147 | 1.0% | 93% | |
| 148 | 18% | 92% | |
| 149 | 0.8% | 74% | |
| 150 | 2% | 74% | |
| 151 | 6% | 71% | |
| 152 | 2% | 65% | |
| 153 | 3% | 63% | |
| 154 | 3% | 61% | |
| 155 | 6% | 58% | |
| 156 | 3% | 52% | Median |
| 157 | 3% | 48% | |
| 158 | 8% | 46% | |
| 159 | 17% | 38% | |
| 160 | 4% | 21% | |
| 161 | 2% | 17% | |
| 162 | 2% | 15% | |
| 163 | 4% | 12% | |
| 164 | 0.8% | 8% | |
| 165 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 166 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 167 | 2% | 5% | |
| 168 | 2% | 3% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 170 | 0.4% | 1.1% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 173 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 140 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 141 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 142 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 143 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 144 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 145 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 146 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 147 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 148 | 0.6% | 93% | |
| 149 | 9% | 93% | |
| 150 | 4% | 84% | |
| 151 | 19% | 80% | |
| 152 | 7% | 61% | |
| 153 | 2% | 54% | |
| 154 | 3% | 52% | |
| 155 | 5% | 49% | |
| 156 | 0.9% | 44% | Median |
| 157 | 2% | 43% | |
| 158 | 0.9% | 42% | |
| 159 | 4% | 41% | |
| 160 | 2% | 37% | |
| 161 | 1.0% | 35% | Last Result |
| 162 | 17% | 34% | |
| 163 | 4% | 17% | |
| 164 | 6% | 13% | |
| 165 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 166 | 2% | 6% | |
| 167 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 168 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 170 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 173 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 174 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 175 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0.6% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 179 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 134 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 135 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 138 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 140 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 141 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 142 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 143 | 2% | 97% | |
| 144 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 145 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 146 | 1.2% | 93% | |
| 147 | 18% | 92% | |
| 148 | 1.1% | 74% | |
| 149 | 2% | 73% | |
| 150 | 2% | 71% | |
| 151 | 7% | 69% | |
| 152 | 3% | 63% | |
| 153 | 4% | 60% | |
| 154 | 4% | 55% | |
| 155 | 3% | 52% | Median |
| 156 | 3% | 48% | |
| 157 | 2% | 46% | |
| 158 | 23% | 43% | |
| 159 | 2% | 21% | |
| 160 | 5% | 18% | |
| 161 | 2% | 14% | |
| 162 | 4% | 11% | |
| 163 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 164 | 0.9% | 7% | |
| 165 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 166 | 2% | 5% | |
| 167 | 2% | 3% | |
| 168 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 170 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 133 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 134 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 135 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 136 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 137 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 138 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 139 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 140 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 141 | 2% | 94% | |
| 142 | 2% | 92% | |
| 143 | 3% | 91% | |
| 144 | 2% | 87% | |
| 145 | 4% | 85% | |
| 146 | 12% | 81% | |
| 147 | 6% | 69% | |
| 148 | 17% | 63% | |
| 149 | 2% | 46% | |
| 150 | 1.0% | 44% | Median |
| 151 | 4% | 43% | |
| 152 | 1.3% | 39% | |
| 153 | 1.0% | 37% | |
| 154 | 1.5% | 36% | |
| 155 | 14% | 35% | |
| 156 | 10% | 21% | Last Result |
| 157 | 2% | 11% | |
| 158 | 2% | 9% | |
| 159 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 160 | 2% | 6% | |
| 161 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 162 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 163 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 167 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 168 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 171 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 101 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 103 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 104 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 106 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 107 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 108 | 3% | 96% | |
| 109 | 1.3% | 93% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 91% | |
| 111 | 5% | 90% | |
| 112 | 3% | 86% | |
| 113 | 2% | 83% | |
| 114 | 9% | 81% | |
| 115 | 3% | 72% | |
| 116 | 6% | 69% | |
| 117 | 2% | 63% | |
| 118 | 4% | 62% | |
| 119 | 18% | 58% | Median |
| 120 | 10% | 39% | |
| 121 | 1.0% | 29% | |
| 122 | 2% | 28% | |
| 123 | 1.3% | 26% | |
| 124 | 3% | 25% | |
| 125 | 1.1% | 22% | |
| 126 | 14% | 20% | |
| 127 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 128 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 129 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 130 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 131 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 132 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 98 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 99 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 100 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 101 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 102 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 103 | 2% | 96% | |
| 104 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 105 | 0.9% | 93% | |
| 106 | 9% | 92% | |
| 107 | 4% | 83% | |
| 108 | 2% | 79% | |
| 109 | 1.3% | 78% | |
| 110 | 2% | 76% | |
| 111 | 5% | 74% | |
| 112 | 1.1% | 69% | |
| 113 | 2% | 68% | |
| 114 | 12% | 66% | |
| 115 | 2% | 54% | |
| 116 | 3% | 52% | Median |
| 117 | 18% | 49% | |
| 118 | 6% | 31% | |
| 119 | 3% | 26% | |
| 120 | 9% | 23% | |
| 121 | 3% | 14% | |
| 122 | 1.1% | 11% | |
| 123 | 3% | 10% | |
| 124 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 125 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 126 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 127 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 129 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 130 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 138 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 81 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 84 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 85 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 86 | 2% | 97% | |
| 87 | 7% | 95% | |
| 88 | 6% | 88% | |
| 89 | 2% | 82% | |
| 90 | 3% | 80% | |
| 91 | 0.4% | 77% | |
| 92 | 0.7% | 77% | |
| 93 | 4% | 76% | |
| 94 | 2% | 72% | |
| 95 | 12% | 70% | |
| 96 | 7% | 58% | |
| 97 | 2% | 51% | Median |
| 98 | 18% | 49% | |
| 99 | 1.3% | 31% | |
| 100 | 2% | 30% | |
| 101 | 9% | 27% | |
| 102 | 4% | 19% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 15% | |
| 104 | 2% | 15% | |
| 105 | 6% | 13% | |
| 106 | 2% | 7% | |
| 107 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 108 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 109 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 110 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GAD3
- Commissioner(s): La Vanguardia
- Fieldwork period: 12–15 February 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.28%