Opinion Poll by GAD3 for ABC, 4–8 March 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 30.6% | 28.8–32.5% | 28.3–33.1% | 27.8–33.5% | 27.0–34.5% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 22.1% | 20.5–23.9% | 20.0–24.4% | 19.6–24.8% | 18.9–25.6% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 13.2% | 11.9–14.7% | 11.6–15.1% | 11.2–15.5% | 10.7–16.2% |
| Vox | 0.2% | 12.1% | 10.9–13.5% | 10.5–13.9% | 10.2–14.3% | 9.6–15.0% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 11.8% | 10.6–13.2% | 10.2–13.6% | 9.9–14.0% | 9.4–14.7% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.7–2.8% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.5–2.4% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.6% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 132 | 123–142 | 119–143 | 116–145 | 113–152 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 96 | 79–104 | 77–107 | 75–108 | 72–110 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 35 | 28–46 | 25–49 | 23–50 | 21–53 |
| Vox | 0 | 32 | 27–36 | 26–40 | 24–44 | 23–48 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 28 | 24–36 | 23–36 | 22–39 | 22–42 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 9 | 14 | 10–15 | 9–16 | 9–17 | 7–19 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 8 | 6 | 5–8 | 4–10 | 3–10 | 2–12 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 5 | 6 | 3–8 | 3–9 | 3–10 | 2–11 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 2 | 2 | 1–4 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 1 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 110 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 113 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 115 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 116 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 118 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 119 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 121 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 122 | 3% | 94% | |
| 123 | 2% | 91% | |
| 124 | 2% | 89% | |
| 125 | 5% | 87% | |
| 126 | 1.3% | 81% | |
| 127 | 1.4% | 80% | |
| 128 | 3% | 79% | |
| 129 | 2% | 76% | |
| 130 | 1.5% | 74% | |
| 131 | 17% | 73% | |
| 132 | 17% | 56% | Median |
| 133 | 4% | 39% | |
| 134 | 5% | 34% | |
| 135 | 2% | 30% | |
| 136 | 2% | 28% | |
| 137 | 1.3% | 26% | |
| 138 | 7% | 24% | |
| 139 | 3% | 18% | |
| 140 | 3% | 15% | |
| 141 | 1.3% | 12% | |
| 142 | 4% | 11% | |
| 143 | 3% | 7% | |
| 144 | 2% | 4% | |
| 145 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 146 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 152 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 74 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 76 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 77 | 3% | 97% | |
| 78 | 3% | 94% | |
| 79 | 3% | 91% | |
| 80 | 6% | 88% | |
| 81 | 1.5% | 82% | |
| 82 | 1.4% | 80% | |
| 83 | 3% | 79% | |
| 84 | 4% | 76% | |
| 85 | 2% | 72% | |
| 86 | 2% | 70% | |
| 87 | 3% | 68% | |
| 88 | 3% | 64% | |
| 89 | 1.3% | 62% | |
| 90 | 0.8% | 60% | |
| 91 | 2% | 59% | |
| 92 | 0.6% | 57% | |
| 93 | 2% | 56% | |
| 94 | 1.1% | 55% | |
| 95 | 0.4% | 54% | |
| 96 | 16% | 53% | Median |
| 97 | 1.0% | 37% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 36% | |
| 99 | 0.4% | 36% | |
| 100 | 1.2% | 36% | |
| 101 | 16% | 34% | |
| 102 | 2% | 18% | |
| 103 | 2% | 16% | |
| 104 | 6% | 14% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 8% | |
| 107 | 4% | 7% | |
| 108 | 2% | 4% | |
| 109 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 23 | 1.0% | 98.5% | |
| 24 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 25 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 26 | 4% | 95% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 91% | |
| 28 | 1.0% | 90% | |
| 29 | 15% | 89% | |
| 30 | 2% | 74% | |
| 31 | 0.8% | 72% | |
| 32 | 3% | 71% | Last Result |
| 33 | 4% | 68% | |
| 34 | 9% | 64% | |
| 35 | 17% | 55% | Median |
| 36 | 2% | 38% | |
| 37 | 3% | 36% | |
| 38 | 4% | 34% | |
| 39 | 3% | 30% | |
| 40 | 3% | 27% | |
| 41 | 2% | 24% | |
| 42 | 4% | 22% | |
| 43 | 4% | 18% | |
| 44 | 2% | 15% | |
| 45 | 1.0% | 13% | |
| 46 | 2% | 12% | |
| 47 | 3% | 9% | |
| 48 | 1.5% | 7% | |
| 49 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 50 | 2% | 4% | |
| 51 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 1.5% | |
| 53 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 24 | 2% | 98% | |
| 25 | 2% | 97% | |
| 26 | 3% | 95% | |
| 27 | 3% | 92% | |
| 28 | 3% | 89% | |
| 29 | 5% | 86% | |
| 30 | 8% | 80% | |
| 31 | 6% | 73% | |
| 32 | 38% | 67% | Median |
| 33 | 8% | 29% | |
| 34 | 5% | 20% | |
| 35 | 1.4% | 16% | |
| 36 | 5% | 14% | |
| 37 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 38 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 39 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 44 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 45 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 3% | 97% | |
| 24 | 5% | 94% | |
| 25 | 24% | 89% | |
| 26 | 6% | 65% | |
| 27 | 6% | 60% | |
| 28 | 5% | 54% | Median |
| 29 | 4% | 49% | |
| 30 | 17% | 45% | |
| 31 | 3% | 28% | |
| 32 | 3% | 25% | |
| 33 | 4% | 22% | |
| 34 | 2% | 18% | |
| 35 | 2% | 16% | |
| 36 | 10% | 14% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 38 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 39 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 40 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 9 | 5% | 98% | Last Result |
| 10 | 7% | 94% | |
| 11 | 14% | 87% | |
| 12 | 9% | 73% | |
| 13 | 2% | 64% | |
| 14 | 32% | 62% | Median |
| 15 | 23% | 30% | |
| 16 | 2% | 7% | |
| 17 | 4% | 5% | |
| 18 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 3 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 4 | 6% | 97% | |
| 5 | 33% | 90% | |
| 6 | 11% | 58% | Median |
| 7 | 4% | 47% | |
| 8 | 34% | 43% | Last Result |
| 9 | 4% | 10% | |
| 10 | 3% | 5% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 10% | 99.3% | |
| 4 | 3% | 89% | |
| 5 | 16% | 87% | Last Result |
| 6 | 42% | 71% | Median |
| 7 | 12% | 29% | |
| 8 | 12% | 17% | |
| 9 | 2% | 5% | |
| 10 | 2% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | |
| 1 | 19% | 94% | |
| 2 | 47% | 75% | Last Result, Median |
| 3 | 11% | 27% | |
| 4 | 9% | 16% | |
| 5 | 3% | 7% | |
| 6 | 2% | 4% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 51% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 38% | 49% | Last Result |
| 2 | 10% | 11% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 254 | 261 | 100% | 252–266 | 248–268 | 247–269 | 243–273 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular | 222 | 227 | 100% | 213–234 | 210–238 | 208–238 | 201–242 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 192 | 99.7% | 185–211 | 183–213 | 181–215 | 176–217 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 180 | 188 | 94% | 177–200 | 174–203 | 171–206 | 166–210 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 173 | 181 | 78% | 170–191 | 168–195 | 163–196 | 159–201 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu | 167 | 177 | 52% | 167–187 | 163–192 | 159–193 | 153–197 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 163 | 168 | 25% | 159–182 | 154–185 | 154–188 | 148–191 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 167 | 21% | 157–181 | 155–184 | 151–187 | 147–190 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 161 | 166 | 20% | 156–181 | 152–182 | 151–184 | 146–188 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox | 169 | 162 | 6% | 150–172 | 146–176 | 144–179 | 139–183 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 160 | 6% | 150–174 | 148–177 | 144–178 | 140–182 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 174 | 135 | 0% | 121–145 | 120–148 | 116–152 | 110–157 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 170 | 130 | 0% | 115–141 | 114–144 | 110–146 | 105–152 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 130 | 0% | 114–140 | 113–144 | 110–146 | 105–151 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 132 | 0% | 123–142 | 119–143 | 116–145 | 113–152 |
| Partido Popular – Vox | 137 | 128 | 0% | 111–137 | 108–139 | 108–140 | 105–142 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 96 | 0% | 79–104 | 77–107 | 75–108 | 72–110 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 239 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 241 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 242 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 243 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 244 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 245 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 246 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 247 | 2% | 98% | |
| 248 | 2% | 96% | |
| 249 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 250 | 1.1% | 94% | |
| 251 | 2% | 93% | |
| 252 | 7% | 92% | |
| 253 | 0.9% | 85% | |
| 254 | 1.3% | 84% | Last Result |
| 255 | 2% | 83% | |
| 256 | 4% | 81% | |
| 257 | 2% | 77% | |
| 258 | 2% | 75% | |
| 259 | 4% | 73% | |
| 260 | 4% | 69% | |
| 261 | 17% | 65% | |
| 262 | 3% | 48% | |
| 263 | 19% | 46% | Median |
| 264 | 8% | 27% | |
| 265 | 2% | 19% | |
| 266 | 8% | 17% | |
| 267 | 3% | 10% | |
| 268 | 3% | 7% | |
| 269 | 2% | 4% | |
| 270 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 271 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 273 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 274 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 275 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 276 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 277 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 197 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 198 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 201 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 204 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 205 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 206 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 207 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 208 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 209 | 2% | 97% | |
| 210 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 211 | 2% | 95% | |
| 212 | 2% | 93% | |
| 213 | 1.5% | 91% | |
| 214 | 2% | 90% | |
| 215 | 1.4% | 88% | |
| 216 | 4% | 87% | |
| 217 | 3% | 83% | |
| 218 | 5% | 80% | |
| 219 | 4% | 75% | |
| 220 | 4% | 71% | |
| 221 | 3% | 68% | |
| 222 | 3% | 64% | Last Result |
| 223 | 4% | 62% | |
| 224 | 2% | 58% | |
| 225 | 3% | 56% | |
| 226 | 2% | 53% | |
| 227 | 2% | 51% | |
| 228 | 16% | 49% | Median |
| 229 | 2% | 33% | |
| 230 | 1.4% | 31% | |
| 231 | 1.0% | 30% | |
| 232 | 17% | 29% | |
| 233 | 0.7% | 12% | |
| 234 | 3% | 11% | |
| 235 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 236 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 237 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 238 | 4% | 7% | |
| 239 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 240 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 241 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 242 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 243 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 244 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 245 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 246 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 247 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 172 | 0% | 100% | |
| 173 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 174 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 99.7% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 178 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 180 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 181 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 182 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 183 | 2% | 95% | |
| 184 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 185 | 6% | 92% | |
| 186 | 2% | 86% | |
| 187 | 5% | 85% | |
| 188 | 1.2% | 80% | Last Result |
| 189 | 1.0% | 79% | |
| 190 | 14% | 78% | |
| 191 | 4% | 64% | |
| 192 | 15% | 60% | |
| 193 | 0.2% | 45% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 45% | |
| 195 | 0.4% | 44% | Median |
| 196 | 0.7% | 44% | |
| 197 | 0.4% | 43% | |
| 198 | 1.3% | 43% | |
| 199 | 0.7% | 42% | |
| 200 | 1.4% | 41% | |
| 201 | 2% | 39% | |
| 202 | 3% | 38% | |
| 203 | 0.9% | 35% | |
| 204 | 3% | 34% | |
| 205 | 4% | 30% | |
| 206 | 1.1% | 26% | |
| 207 | 3% | 25% | |
| 208 | 7% | 22% | |
| 209 | 2% | 15% | |
| 210 | 2% | 14% | |
| 211 | 4% | 12% | |
| 212 | 0.6% | 8% | |
| 213 | 2% | 7% | |
| 214 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 215 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 216 | 2% | 2% | |
| 217 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 218 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 220 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 223 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 224 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 225 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 226 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 227 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 228 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 168 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 169 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 170 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 171 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 172 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 174 | 3% | 97% | |
| 175 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 176 | 3% | 94% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.9% | 91% | |
| 178 | 0.5% | 90% | |
| 179 | 0.6% | 89% | |
| 180 | 1.2% | 89% | Last Result |
| 181 | 2% | 87% | |
| 182 | 0.9% | 85% | |
| 183 | 3% | 84% | |
| 184 | 2% | 81% | |
| 185 | 1.3% | 78% | |
| 186 | 6% | 77% | |
| 187 | 17% | 71% | |
| 188 | 16% | 55% | Median |
| 189 | 3% | 39% | |
| 190 | 1.3% | 35% | |
| 191 | 2% | 34% | |
| 192 | 2% | 32% | |
| 193 | 3% | 31% | |
| 194 | 2% | 28% | |
| 195 | 4% | 26% | |
| 196 | 1.4% | 22% | |
| 197 | 4% | 21% | |
| 198 | 1.3% | 17% | |
| 199 | 5% | 16% | |
| 200 | 2% | 11% | |
| 201 | 0.7% | 9% | |
| 202 | 2% | 8% | |
| 203 | 2% | 6% | |
| 204 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 205 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 206 | 2% | 4% | |
| 207 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 208 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 210 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 155 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 156 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 157 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 161 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 163 | 1.3% | 98.6% | |
| 164 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 165 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 166 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 168 | 2% | 95% | |
| 169 | 0.9% | 93% | |
| 170 | 3% | 92% | |
| 171 | 0.7% | 89% | |
| 172 | 2% | 88% | |
| 173 | 1.1% | 86% | Last Result |
| 174 | 3% | 85% | |
| 175 | 3% | 82% | |
| 176 | 2% | 78% | Majority |
| 177 | 2% | 77% | |
| 178 | 5% | 75% | |
| 179 | 18% | 70% | |
| 180 | 0.5% | 51% | Median |
| 181 | 16% | 51% | |
| 182 | 2% | 35% | |
| 183 | 2% | 33% | |
| 184 | 0.9% | 30% | |
| 185 | 4% | 30% | |
| 186 | 3% | 25% | |
| 187 | 2% | 22% | |
| 188 | 2% | 20% | |
| 189 | 2% | 18% | |
| 190 | 2% | 16% | |
| 191 | 6% | 14% | |
| 192 | 0.9% | 9% | |
| 193 | 0.8% | 8% | |
| 194 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 195 | 2% | 6% | |
| 196 | 2% | 4% | |
| 197 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 198 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 199 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 200 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 202 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 153 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 154 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 156 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 158 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 160 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 162 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 163 | 3% | 96% | |
| 164 | 0.6% | 93% | |
| 165 | 0.9% | 92% | |
| 166 | 0.9% | 92% | |
| 167 | 2% | 91% | Last Result |
| 168 | 4% | 89% | |
| 169 | 3% | 85% | |
| 170 | 3% | 82% | |
| 171 | 0.9% | 79% | |
| 172 | 1.3% | 78% | |
| 173 | 17% | 77% | |
| 174 | 2% | 60% | |
| 175 | 6% | 58% | |
| 176 | 2% | 52% | Median, Majority |
| 177 | 3% | 50% | |
| 178 | 14% | 47% | |
| 179 | 2% | 32% | |
| 180 | 3% | 30% | |
| 181 | 2% | 26% | |
| 182 | 2% | 25% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 23% | |
| 184 | 3% | 22% | |
| 185 | 1.3% | 19% | |
| 186 | 7% | 18% | |
| 187 | 3% | 11% | |
| 188 | 0.7% | 8% | |
| 189 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 190 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 191 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 192 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 193 | 2% | 4% | |
| 194 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 196 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 197 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 148 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 151 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 153 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 154 | 4% | 98% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 157 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 158 | 2% | 92% | |
| 159 | 3% | 90% | |
| 160 | 0.6% | 88% | |
| 161 | 4% | 87% | |
| 162 | 1.3% | 83% | |
| 163 | 2% | 82% | Last Result |
| 164 | 1.4% | 80% | |
| 165 | 17% | 79% | |
| 166 | 2% | 62% | |
| 167 | 6% | 60% | |
| 168 | 15% | 54% | Median |
| 169 | 3% | 39% | |
| 170 | 1.0% | 36% | |
| 171 | 2% | 35% | |
| 172 | 2% | 33% | |
| 173 | 2% | 31% | |
| 174 | 2% | 29% | |
| 175 | 2% | 27% | |
| 176 | 2% | 25% | Majority |
| 177 | 1.5% | 23% | |
| 178 | 2% | 21% | |
| 179 | 3% | 19% | |
| 180 | 1.4% | 16% | |
| 181 | 1.0% | 15% | |
| 182 | 5% | 14% | |
| 183 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 184 | 3% | 8% | |
| 185 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 186 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 187 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 188 | 2% | 4% | |
| 189 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 190 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 150 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 151 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 153 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 154 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 155 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 156 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 157 | 4% | 94% | |
| 158 | 0.9% | 90% | |
| 159 | 4% | 89% | |
| 160 | 17% | 85% | |
| 161 | 1.2% | 68% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 67% | |
| 163 | 4% | 67% | |
| 164 | 1.0% | 63% | |
| 165 | 3% | 62% | |
| 166 | 1.5% | 59% | |
| 167 | 17% | 58% | Median |
| 168 | 2% | 41% | |
| 169 | 2% | 39% | |
| 170 | 0.8% | 37% | |
| 171 | 1.3% | 36% | |
| 172 | 7% | 35% | |
| 173 | 1.5% | 28% | |
| 174 | 2% | 26% | |
| 175 | 3% | 24% | |
| 176 | 2% | 21% | Majority |
| 177 | 2% | 19% | |
| 178 | 2% | 17% | |
| 179 | 3% | 15% | |
| 180 | 2% | 12% | |
| 181 | 2% | 10% | |
| 182 | 2% | 9% | |
| 183 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 184 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 185 | 2% | 5% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 188 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 189 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 190 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 142 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 148 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 150 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
| 151 | 2% | 98% | |
| 152 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 153 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 154 | 0.6% | 93% | |
| 155 | 1.3% | 93% | |
| 156 | 3% | 91% | |
| 157 | 1.0% | 88% | |
| 158 | 1.3% | 87% | |
| 159 | 3% | 86% | |
| 160 | 2% | 83% | |
| 161 | 2% | 81% | Last Result |
| 162 | 1.2% | 79% | |
| 163 | 17% | 78% | |
| 164 | 2% | 61% | |
| 165 | 6% | 59% | |
| 166 | 15% | 53% | Median |
| 167 | 2% | 38% | |
| 168 | 1.3% | 35% | |
| 169 | 2% | 34% | |
| 170 | 1.4% | 32% | |
| 171 | 3% | 31% | |
| 172 | 1.3% | 27% | |
| 173 | 3% | 26% | |
| 174 | 2% | 23% | |
| 175 | 1.0% | 21% | |
| 176 | 1.0% | 20% | Majority |
| 177 | 2% | 19% | |
| 178 | 2% | 17% | |
| 179 | 2% | 15% | |
| 180 | 0.9% | 14% | |
| 181 | 6% | 13% | |
| 182 | 2% | 7% | |
| 183 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 184 | 2% | 4% | |
| 185 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 186 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 187 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 188 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 135 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 139 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 142 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 143 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 144 | 2% | 98% | |
| 145 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 146 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 147 | 2% | 94% | |
| 148 | 2% | 93% | |
| 149 | 0.8% | 91% | |
| 150 | 6% | 90% | |
| 151 | 0.9% | 84% | |
| 152 | 3% | 83% | |
| 153 | 2% | 79% | |
| 154 | 4% | 78% | |
| 155 | 2% | 74% | |
| 156 | 2% | 72% | |
| 157 | 2% | 70% | |
| 158 | 2% | 68% | |
| 159 | 2% | 66% | |
| 160 | 3% | 64% | |
| 161 | 3% | 61% | |
| 162 | 15% | 58% | |
| 163 | 20% | 43% | Median |
| 164 | 2% | 23% | |
| 165 | 2% | 22% | |
| 166 | 3% | 20% | |
| 167 | 1.4% | 17% | |
| 168 | 2% | 15% | |
| 169 | 2% | 14% | Last Result |
| 170 | 0.8% | 11% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 10% | |
| 172 | 1.1% | 10% | |
| 173 | 3% | 9% | |
| 174 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 176 | 3% | 6% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 178 | 0% | 3% | |
| 179 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 180 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 183 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 138 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 139 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 141 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 142 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 143 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 144 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 145 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 146 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 147 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 148 | 3% | 96% | |
| 149 | 2% | 93% | |
| 150 | 1.2% | 91% | |
| 151 | 0.8% | 90% | |
| 152 | 2% | 89% | |
| 153 | 5% | 87% | |
| 154 | 1.0% | 82% | |
| 155 | 2% | 81% | |
| 156 | 2% | 79% | Last Result |
| 157 | 17% | 77% | |
| 158 | 2% | 60% | |
| 159 | 6% | 58% | |
| 160 | 2% | 52% | Median |
| 161 | 14% | 50% | |
| 162 | 0.8% | 35% | |
| 163 | 2% | 35% | |
| 164 | 3% | 33% | |
| 165 | 4% | 30% | |
| 166 | 2% | 26% | |
| 167 | 2% | 24% | |
| 168 | 2% | 22% | |
| 169 | 0.6% | 20% | |
| 170 | 1.5% | 20% | |
| 171 | 3% | 18% | |
| 172 | 2% | 16% | |
| 173 | 1.2% | 14% | |
| 174 | 6% | 13% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 176 | 1.0% | 6% | Majority |
| 177 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 178 | 2% | 4% | |
| 179 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 180 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 181 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 182 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 106 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 110 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 114 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 115 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 116 | 2% | 98% | |
| 117 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 119 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 120 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 121 | 5% | 94% | |
| 122 | 2% | 90% | |
| 123 | 1.1% | 88% | |
| 124 | 1.2% | 87% | |
| 125 | 1.2% | 86% | |
| 126 | 4% | 85% | |
| 127 | 2% | 80% | |
| 128 | 3% | 78% | |
| 129 | 3% | 75% | |
| 130 | 1.3% | 72% | |
| 131 | 2% | 71% | |
| 132 | 3% | 68% | |
| 133 | 1.1% | 66% | |
| 134 | 0.8% | 65% | |
| 135 | 15% | 64% | |
| 136 | 6% | 48% | |
| 137 | 16% | 43% | Median |
| 138 | 3% | 27% | |
| 139 | 1.0% | 24% | |
| 140 | 0.9% | 23% | |
| 141 | 4% | 22% | |
| 142 | 3% | 17% | |
| 143 | 0.3% | 15% | |
| 144 | 3% | 14% | |
| 145 | 2% | 11% | |
| 146 | 1.1% | 9% | |
| 147 | 3% | 8% | |
| 148 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 149 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 150 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 151 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 153 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 154 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 156 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 105 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 109 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 110 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 111 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 114 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 115 | 5% | 95% | |
| 116 | 1.1% | 90% | |
| 117 | 0.8% | 89% | |
| 118 | 1.1% | 88% | |
| 119 | 3% | 87% | |
| 120 | 2% | 84% | |
| 121 | 2% | 82% | |
| 122 | 4% | 80% | |
| 123 | 2% | 76% | |
| 124 | 2% | 74% | |
| 125 | 2% | 72% | |
| 126 | 2% | 70% | |
| 127 | 2% | 68% | |
| 128 | 3% | 66% | |
| 129 | 2% | 63% | |
| 130 | 14% | 61% | |
| 131 | 20% | 47% | Median |
| 132 | 0.9% | 27% | |
| 133 | 3% | 26% | |
| 134 | 2% | 23% | |
| 135 | 1.0% | 22% | |
| 136 | 5% | 21% | |
| 137 | 1.1% | 15% | |
| 138 | 1.5% | 14% | |
| 139 | 0.3% | 13% | |
| 140 | 2% | 12% | |
| 141 | 1.0% | 11% | |
| 142 | 3% | 10% | |
| 143 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 144 | 2% | 6% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 146 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 148 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 152 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 109 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 110 | 2% | 98% | |
| 111 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 113 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 114 | 5% | 95% | |
| 115 | 0.9% | 90% | |
| 116 | 1.4% | 89% | |
| 117 | 1.0% | 88% | |
| 118 | 3% | 87% | |
| 119 | 1.1% | 84% | |
| 120 | 3% | 83% | |
| 121 | 3% | 79% | |
| 122 | 2% | 77% | |
| 123 | 2% | 74% | |
| 124 | 3% | 73% | |
| 125 | 0.8% | 69% | |
| 126 | 3% | 69% | |
| 127 | 2% | 66% | |
| 128 | 2% | 64% | |
| 129 | 2% | 62% | |
| 130 | 18% | 60% | |
| 131 | 17% | 42% | Median |
| 132 | 1.4% | 25% | |
| 133 | 2% | 24% | |
| 134 | 0.7% | 22% | |
| 135 | 5% | 21% | |
| 136 | 2% | 16% | |
| 137 | 2% | 14% | |
| 138 | 0.5% | 13% | |
| 139 | 1.2% | 12% | |
| 140 | 1.3% | 11% | |
| 141 | 3% | 10% | |
| 142 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 143 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 144 | 2% | 5% | |
| 145 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 146 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 147 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 148 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 151 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 110 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 113 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 115 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 116 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 118 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 119 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 121 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 122 | 3% | 94% | |
| 123 | 2% | 91% | |
| 124 | 2% | 89% | |
| 125 | 5% | 87% | |
| 126 | 1.3% | 81% | |
| 127 | 1.4% | 80% | |
| 128 | 3% | 79% | |
| 129 | 2% | 76% | |
| 130 | 1.5% | 74% | |
| 131 | 17% | 73% | |
| 132 | 17% | 56% | Median |
| 133 | 4% | 39% | |
| 134 | 5% | 34% | |
| 135 | 2% | 30% | |
| 136 | 2% | 28% | |
| 137 | 1.3% | 26% | |
| 138 | 7% | 24% | |
| 139 | 3% | 18% | |
| 140 | 3% | 15% | |
| 141 | 1.3% | 12% | |
| 142 | 4% | 11% | |
| 143 | 3% | 7% | |
| 144 | 2% | 4% | |
| 145 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 146 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 152 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 105 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 106 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 107 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 108 | 4% | 98% | |
| 109 | 1.2% | 94% | |
| 110 | 2% | 93% | |
| 111 | 4% | 91% | |
| 112 | 2% | 87% | |
| 113 | 3% | 84% | |
| 114 | 3% | 81% | |
| 115 | 4% | 78% | |
| 116 | 7% | 74% | |
| 117 | 2% | 67% | |
| 118 | 2% | 65% | |
| 119 | 2% | 64% | |
| 120 | 2% | 62% | |
| 121 | 0.5% | 60% | |
| 122 | 1.0% | 59% | |
| 123 | 0.8% | 58% | |
| 124 | 1.2% | 57% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 56% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 56% | |
| 127 | 0.5% | 56% | |
| 128 | 15% | 55% | Median |
| 129 | 0.8% | 40% | |
| 130 | 0.3% | 39% | |
| 131 | 0.4% | 39% | |
| 132 | 1.5% | 39% | |
| 133 | 17% | 37% | |
| 134 | 2% | 20% | |
| 135 | 2% | 18% | |
| 136 | 3% | 15% | |
| 137 | 5% | 12% | Last Result |
| 138 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 139 | 3% | 6% | |
| 140 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 141 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 142 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 74 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 76 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 77 | 3% | 97% | |
| 78 | 3% | 94% | |
| 79 | 3% | 91% | |
| 80 | 6% | 88% | |
| 81 | 1.5% | 82% | |
| 82 | 1.4% | 80% | |
| 83 | 3% | 79% | |
| 84 | 4% | 76% | |
| 85 | 2% | 72% | |
| 86 | 2% | 70% | |
| 87 | 3% | 68% | |
| 88 | 3% | 64% | |
| 89 | 1.3% | 62% | |
| 90 | 0.8% | 60% | |
| 91 | 2% | 59% | |
| 92 | 0.6% | 57% | |
| 93 | 2% | 56% | |
| 94 | 1.1% | 55% | |
| 95 | 0.4% | 54% | |
| 96 | 16% | 53% | Median |
| 97 | 1.0% | 37% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 36% | |
| 99 | 0.4% | 36% | |
| 100 | 1.2% | 36% | |
| 101 | 16% | 34% | |
| 102 | 2% | 18% | |
| 103 | 2% | 16% | |
| 104 | 6% | 14% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 8% | |
| 107 | 4% | 7% | |
| 108 | 2% | 4% | |
| 109 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GAD3
- Commissioner(s): ABC
- Fieldwork period: 4–8 March 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.57%