Opinion Poll by electoPanel for electomania.es, 22 February–10 March 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 26.9% | 26.2–27.6% | 26.0–27.8% | 25.8–28.0% | 25.5–28.3% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 20.3% | 19.7–20.9% | 19.5–21.1% | 19.3–21.3% | 19.1–21.6% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 16.1% | 15.5–16.7% | 15.4–16.9% | 15.2–17.0% | 15.0–17.3% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 13.2% | 12.7–13.7% | 12.5–13.9% | 12.4–14.0% | 12.2–14.3% |
| Vox | 0.2% | 12.3% | 11.8–12.8% | 11.6–13.0% | 11.5–13.1% | 11.3–13.4% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.0–3.6% | 3.0–3.7% | 2.9–3.7% | 2.8–3.9% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.1–1.5% | 1.1–1.6% | 1.1–1.6% | 1.0–1.7% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1–1.5% | 1.1–1.6% | 1.1–1.6% | 1.0–1.7% |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.8–1.1% | 0.7–1.1% | 0.7–1.2% | 0.6–1.2% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7–1.0% | 0.6–1.0% | 0.6–1.0% | 0.5–1.1% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.4% | 0.2–0.4% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.2–0.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 117 | 113–121 | 112–121 | 110–123 | 108–126 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 82 | 78–85 | 77–86 | 76–88 | 75–91 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 53 | 50–56 | 50–57 | 48–58 | 48–61 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 36 | 34–38 | 33–39 | 33–39 | 32–40 |
| Vox | 0 | 33 | 30–34 | 30–35 | 29–36 | 27–38 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 9 | 15 | 14–15 | 14–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 8 | 4 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 5 | 6 | 6–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 2 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 108 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 109 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 110 | 2% | 98% | |
| 111 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 112 | 4% | 95% | |
| 113 | 5% | 91% | |
| 114 | 7% | 86% | |
| 115 | 6% | 79% | |
| 116 | 15% | 73% | |
| 117 | 11% | 57% | Median |
| 118 | 8% | 46% | |
| 119 | 6% | 38% | |
| 120 | 21% | 32% | |
| 121 | 7% | 12% | |
| 122 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 123 | 2% | 4% | |
| 124 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 127 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 76 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 77 | 3% | 97% | |
| 78 | 14% | 94% | |
| 79 | 5% | 80% | |
| 80 | 10% | 75% | |
| 81 | 13% | 66% | |
| 82 | 20% | 52% | Median |
| 83 | 15% | 32% | |
| 84 | 6% | 17% | |
| 85 | 3% | 12% | |
| 86 | 5% | 8% | |
| 87 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 88 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 89 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 92 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 50 | 13% | 96% | |
| 51 | 2% | 83% | |
| 52 | 16% | 81% | |
| 53 | 30% | 65% | Median |
| 54 | 13% | 35% | |
| 55 | 8% | 22% | |
| 56 | 6% | 14% | |
| 57 | 4% | 7% | |
| 58 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 34 | 8% | 94% | |
| 35 | 32% | 86% | |
| 36 | 18% | 54% | Median |
| 37 | 11% | 36% | |
| 38 | 20% | 25% | |
| 39 | 4% | 5% | |
| 40 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 29 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 30 | 7% | 96% | |
| 31 | 3% | 89% | |
| 32 | 14% | 86% | |
| 33 | 39% | 71% | Median |
| 34 | 25% | 33% | |
| 35 | 5% | 8% | |
| 36 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 37 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 14 | 47% | 97% | |
| 15 | 44% | 51% | Median |
| 16 | 5% | 7% | |
| 17 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 5% | 100% | |
| 4 | 60% | 95% | Median |
| 5 | 14% | 35% | |
| 6 | 21% | 21% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 7% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 6 | 70% | 93% | Median |
| 7 | 15% | 23% | |
| 8 | 8% | 8% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Euskal Herria Bildu
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 22% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 3 | 32% | 78% | Median |
| 4 | 44% | 46% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 100% | |
| 1 | 87% | 89% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 254 | 252 | 100% | 248–254 | 247–256 | 246–257 | 244–258 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 206 | 100% | 203–210 | 202–210 | 200–211 | 197–214 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular | 222 | 198 | 100% | 195–204 | 193–205 | 191–206 | 190–206 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euskal Herria Bildu | 180 | 182 | 98.5% | 178–185 | 177–186 | 176–187 | 173–189 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 173 | 173 | 11% | 168–176 | 168–176 | 167–178 | 163–179 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu | 167 | 172 | 4% | 167–174 | 165–175 | 164–177 | 161–178 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 171 | 3% | 166–173 | 165–174 | 164–176 | 161–179 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox | 169 | 167 | 0.7% | 165–171 | 163–172 | 162–173 | 160–176 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 163 | 163 | 0% | 159–165 | 157–167 | 156–168 | 154–170 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 161 | 160 | 0% | 155–162 | 155–163 | 153–165 | 150–166 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 154 | 0% | 149–156 | 148–157 | 146–159 | 144–160 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 174 | 140 | 0% | 137–146 | 136–146 | 134–147 | 133–151 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 170 | 135 | 0% | 132–140 | 131–141 | 129–142 | 128–144 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 134 | 0% | 131–139 | 130–140 | 128–141 | 127–143 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 117 | 0% | 113–121 | 112–121 | 110–123 | 108–126 |
| Partido Popular – Vox | 137 | 115 | 0% | 111–117 | 110–119 | 110–120 | 108–123 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 82 | 0% | 78–85 | 77–86 | 76–88 | 75–91 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 242 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 243 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 244 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 245 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 246 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 247 | 2% | 97% | |
| 248 | 10% | 95% | |
| 249 | 7% | 85% | |
| 250 | 17% | 78% | |
| 251 | 7% | 61% | |
| 252 | 14% | 54% | Median |
| 253 | 5% | 40% | |
| 254 | 26% | 36% | Last Result |
| 255 | 4% | 9% | |
| 256 | 2% | 5% | |
| 257 | 2% | 3% | |
| 258 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 259 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 260 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 261 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 195 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 197 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 198 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 199 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 200 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 201 | 2% | 97% | |
| 202 | 3% | 95% | |
| 203 | 9% | 93% | |
| 204 | 9% | 83% | |
| 205 | 12% | 74% | |
| 206 | 12% | 62% | Median |
| 207 | 20% | 50% | |
| 208 | 13% | 30% | |
| 209 | 4% | 17% | |
| 210 | 8% | 13% | |
| 211 | 2% | 4% | |
| 212 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 213 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 214 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 189 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 190 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 191 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 192 | 2% | 97% | |
| 193 | 2% | 95% | |
| 194 | 2% | 93% | |
| 195 | 11% | 91% | |
| 196 | 11% | 80% | |
| 197 | 18% | 69% | |
| 198 | 7% | 52% | |
| 199 | 5% | 45% | Median |
| 200 | 6% | 40% | |
| 201 | 3% | 34% | |
| 202 | 20% | 31% | |
| 203 | 0.9% | 11% | |
| 204 | 5% | 10% | |
| 205 | 2% | 5% | |
| 206 | 3% | 4% | |
| 207 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 171 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 173 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 174 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 175 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 176 | 3% | 98.5% | Majority |
| 177 | 2% | 96% | |
| 178 | 5% | 94% | |
| 179 | 3% | 88% | |
| 180 | 9% | 85% | Last Result |
| 181 | 17% | 76% | Median |
| 182 | 27% | 59% | |
| 183 | 9% | 33% | |
| 184 | 13% | 23% | |
| 185 | 5% | 10% | |
| 186 | 2% | 5% | |
| 187 | 2% | 4% | |
| 188 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 189 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 161 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 165 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 166 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 167 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 168 | 7% | 96% | |
| 169 | 4% | 89% | |
| 170 | 11% | 86% | |
| 171 | 13% | 74% | |
| 172 | 8% | 61% | Median |
| 173 | 23% | 53% | Last Result |
| 174 | 11% | 30% | |
| 175 | 8% | 19% | |
| 176 | 6% | 11% | Majority |
| 177 | 2% | 5% | |
| 178 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 179 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 180 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 160 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 162 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 164 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 165 | 3% | 97% | |
| 166 | 4% | 95% | |
| 167 | 6% | 91% | Last Result |
| 168 | 10% | 85% | |
| 169 | 7% | 75% | |
| 170 | 3% | 68% | |
| 171 | 12% | 66% | Median |
| 172 | 24% | 54% | |
| 173 | 8% | 29% | |
| 174 | 12% | 21% | |
| 175 | 5% | 9% | |
| 176 | 1.0% | 4% | Majority |
| 177 | 2% | 3% | |
| 178 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 179 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 162 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 163 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 164 | 3% | 98% | |
| 165 | 2% | 96% | |
| 166 | 4% | 94% | |
| 167 | 7% | 90% | |
| 168 | 7% | 82% | |
| 169 | 12% | 75% | |
| 170 | 12% | 63% | Median |
| 171 | 15% | 52% | |
| 172 | 23% | 37% | |
| 173 | 4% | 13% | |
| 174 | 4% | 9% | |
| 175 | 2% | 5% | |
| 176 | 1.0% | 3% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 179 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 159 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 161 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 162 | 2% | 98% | |
| 163 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 164 | 5% | 95% | |
| 165 | 13% | 90% | |
| 166 | 10% | 77% | |
| 167 | 23% | 67% | |
| 168 | 17% | 44% | Median |
| 169 | 13% | 27% | Last Result |
| 170 | 2% | 14% | |
| 171 | 5% | 12% | |
| 172 | 2% | 7% | |
| 173 | 2% | 4% | |
| 174 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 175 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 176 | 0.3% | 0.7% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 178 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 156 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 157 | 3% | 97% | |
| 158 | 2% | 95% | |
| 159 | 9% | 93% | |
| 160 | 3% | 84% | |
| 161 | 12% | 81% | |
| 162 | 11% | 68% | Median |
| 163 | 9% | 57% | Last Result |
| 164 | 27% | 48% | |
| 165 | 12% | 22% | |
| 166 | 4% | 9% | |
| 167 | 2% | 5% | |
| 168 | 2% | 4% | |
| 169 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 170 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 171 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 152 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 153 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 154 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 155 | 7% | 96% | |
| 156 | 5% | 90% | |
| 157 | 10% | 85% | |
| 158 | 12% | 75% | |
| 159 | 6% | 63% | Median |
| 160 | 12% | 57% | |
| 161 | 31% | 45% | Last Result |
| 162 | 6% | 14% | |
| 163 | 4% | 8% | |
| 164 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 165 | 2% | 3% | |
| 166 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 145 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 146 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 147 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 148 | 3% | 97% | |
| 149 | 9% | 94% | |
| 150 | 8% | 85% | |
| 151 | 4% | 77% | |
| 152 | 12% | 73% | |
| 153 | 6% | 61% | Median |
| 154 | 10% | 55% | |
| 155 | 28% | 45% | |
| 156 | 11% | 17% | Last Result |
| 157 | 3% | 6% | |
| 158 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 159 | 2% | 3% | |
| 160 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 134 | 2% | 98% | |
| 135 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 136 | 2% | 96% | |
| 137 | 9% | 94% | |
| 138 | 10% | 85% | |
| 139 | 6% | 75% | |
| 140 | 28% | 69% | |
| 141 | 4% | 42% | Median |
| 142 | 12% | 37% | |
| 143 | 7% | 26% | |
| 144 | 3% | 18% | |
| 145 | 5% | 15% | |
| 146 | 6% | 10% | |
| 147 | 2% | 4% | |
| 148 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 151 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 125 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 129 | 2% | 98% | |
| 130 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 131 | 2% | 95% | |
| 132 | 10% | 93% | |
| 133 | 4% | 83% | |
| 134 | 11% | 79% | |
| 135 | 30% | 69% | |
| 136 | 11% | 39% | Median |
| 137 | 8% | 28% | |
| 138 | 7% | 21% | |
| 139 | 3% | 14% | |
| 140 | 3% | 10% | |
| 141 | 4% | 7% | |
| 142 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 143 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 144 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 145 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 146 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 128 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 129 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 130 | 3% | 96% | |
| 131 | 9% | 93% | |
| 132 | 5% | 84% | |
| 133 | 10% | 79% | |
| 134 | 29% | 69% | |
| 135 | 6% | 40% | Median |
| 136 | 12% | 33% | |
| 137 | 7% | 21% | |
| 138 | 2% | 14% | |
| 139 | 4% | 11% | |
| 140 | 4% | 7% | |
| 141 | 2% | 4% | |
| 142 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 143 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 145 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 108 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 109 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 110 | 2% | 98% | |
| 111 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 112 | 4% | 95% | |
| 113 | 5% | 91% | |
| 114 | 7% | 86% | |
| 115 | 6% | 79% | |
| 116 | 15% | 73% | |
| 117 | 11% | 57% | Median |
| 118 | 8% | 46% | |
| 119 | 6% | 38% | |
| 120 | 21% | 32% | |
| 121 | 7% | 12% | |
| 122 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 123 | 2% | 4% | |
| 124 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 127 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 109 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 110 | 3% | 98% | |
| 111 | 7% | 94% | |
| 112 | 17% | 87% | |
| 113 | 4% | 70% | |
| 114 | 10% | 66% | |
| 115 | 30% | 56% | Median |
| 116 | 10% | 26% | |
| 117 | 7% | 15% | |
| 118 | 2% | 8% | |
| 119 | 4% | 7% | |
| 120 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 121 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 76 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 77 | 3% | 97% | |
| 78 | 14% | 94% | |
| 79 | 5% | 80% | |
| 80 | 10% | 75% | |
| 81 | 13% | 66% | |
| 82 | 20% | 52% | Median |
| 83 | 15% | 32% | |
| 84 | 6% | 17% | |
| 85 | 3% | 12% | |
| 86 | 5% | 8% | |
| 87 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 88 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 89 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 92 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: electoPanel
- Commissioner(s): electomania.es
- Fieldwork period: 22 February–10 March 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 6800
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.82%