Opinion Poll by 40dB for El País, 14–19 March 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 27.1% | 25.7–28.7% | 25.3–29.1% | 24.9–29.4% | 24.3–30.2% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 19.3% | 18.1–20.7% | 17.7–21.1% | 17.4–21.4% | 16.8–22.1% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 17.7% | 16.5–19.1% | 16.2–19.4% | 15.9–19.8% | 15.3–20.4% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 12.3% | 11.3–13.5% | 11.0–13.8% | 10.8–14.1% | 10.3–14.7% |
| Vox | 0.2% | 10.2% | 9.3–11.3% | 9.0–11.6% | 8.8–11.8% | 8.3–12.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 118 | 113–126 | 111–130 | 109–132 | 105–136 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 79 | 73–85 | 70–87 | 68–89 | 64–94 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 64 | 58–67 | 55–68 | 53–69 | 51–73 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 34 | 29–38 | 27–38 | 26–40 | 24–43 |
| Vox | 0 | 25 | 21–28 | 21–30 | 20–32 | 17–34 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 105 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 106 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 107 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 108 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 109 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 110 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 111 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 112 | 2% | 95% | |
| 113 | 3% | 93% | |
| 114 | 4% | 89% | |
| 115 | 6% | 86% | |
| 116 | 6% | 79% | |
| 117 | 11% | 73% | |
| 118 | 13% | 62% | Median |
| 119 | 9% | 49% | |
| 120 | 10% | 40% | |
| 121 | 5% | 30% | |
| 122 | 4% | 25% | |
| 123 | 4% | 20% | |
| 124 | 3% | 16% | |
| 125 | 2% | 14% | |
| 126 | 2% | 11% | |
| 127 | 2% | 9% | |
| 128 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 129 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 130 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 131 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 132 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 133 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 135 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 67 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 68 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 69 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 70 | 2% | 95% | |
| 71 | 2% | 94% | |
| 72 | 2% | 92% | |
| 73 | 2% | 90% | |
| 74 | 4% | 88% | |
| 75 | 4% | 84% | |
| 76 | 9% | 80% | |
| 77 | 7% | 71% | |
| 78 | 9% | 64% | |
| 79 | 6% | 54% | Median |
| 80 | 6% | 48% | |
| 81 | 7% | 42% | |
| 82 | 8% | 34% | |
| 83 | 8% | 27% | |
| 84 | 4% | 19% | |
| 85 | 5% | 15% | |
| 86 | 3% | 10% | |
| 87 | 2% | 6% | |
| 88 | 2% | 5% | |
| 89 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 90 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 53 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 54 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 55 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 56 | 2% | 94% | |
| 57 | 2% | 92% | |
| 58 | 2% | 90% | |
| 59 | 4% | 88% | |
| 60 | 5% | 84% | |
| 61 | 8% | 78% | |
| 62 | 8% | 70% | |
| 63 | 10% | 62% | |
| 64 | 11% | 52% | Median |
| 65 | 14% | 42% | |
| 66 | 8% | 28% | |
| 67 | 11% | 20% | |
| 68 | 5% | 9% | |
| 69 | 2% | 4% | |
| 70 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 26 | 2% | 98% | |
| 27 | 2% | 96% | |
| 28 | 2% | 93% | |
| 29 | 3% | 91% | |
| 30 | 5% | 88% | |
| 31 | 9% | 83% | |
| 32 | 11% | 74% | |
| 33 | 12% | 63% | |
| 34 | 9% | 51% | Median |
| 35 | 12% | 42% | |
| 36 | 14% | 30% | |
| 37 | 5% | 16% | |
| 38 | 6% | 10% | |
| 39 | 2% | 5% | |
| 40 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 41 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 19 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 20 | 2% | 98% | |
| 21 | 12% | 95% | |
| 22 | 11% | 84% | |
| 23 | 13% | 73% | |
| 24 | 7% | 60% | |
| 25 | 11% | 52% | Median |
| 26 | 14% | 41% | |
| 27 | 10% | 27% | |
| 28 | 7% | 17% | |
| 29 | 4% | 10% | |
| 30 | 2% | 6% | |
| 31 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 32 | 2% | 3% | |
| 33 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 254 | 261 | 100% | 255–267 | 254–269 | 252–271 | 249–273 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 216 | 100% | 209–222 | 207–225 | 205–227 | 200–230 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular | 222 | 198 | 100% | 192–205 | 190–208 | 188–210 | 186–213 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 182 | 90% | 175–189 | 173–192 | 171–194 | 167–198 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox | 169 | 167 | 5% | 160–173 | 157–176 | 154–178 | 150–182 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 152 | 0% | 146–159 | 144–163 | 142–165 | 137–170 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 143 | 0% | 135–149 | 131–151 | 129–153 | 124–158 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 118 | 0% | 113–126 | 111–130 | 109–132 | 105–136 |
| Partido Popular – Vox | 137 | 104 | 0% | 98–111 | 95–113 | 93–115 | 90–120 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 79 | 0% | 73–85 | 70–87 | 68–89 | 64–94 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 245 | 0% | 100% | |
| 246 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 247 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 248 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 249 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 250 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 251 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 252 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 253 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 254 | 2% | 96% | Last Result |
| 255 | 4% | 94% | |
| 256 | 5% | 90% | |
| 257 | 6% | 85% | |
| 258 | 6% | 79% | |
| 259 | 7% | 73% | |
| 260 | 8% | 66% | |
| 261 | 9% | 58% | Median |
| 262 | 9% | 49% | |
| 263 | 8% | 40% | |
| 264 | 7% | 33% | |
| 265 | 7% | 26% | |
| 266 | 6% | 19% | |
| 267 | 4% | 13% | |
| 268 | 3% | 9% | |
| 269 | 2% | 6% | |
| 270 | 2% | 4% | |
| 271 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 272 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 273 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 274 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 275 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 276 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 277 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0% | 100% | |
| 195 | 0% | 100% | |
| 196 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 200 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 201 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 202 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 203 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 204 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 205 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 206 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 207 | 2% | 96% | |
| 208 | 2% | 94% | |
| 209 | 3% | 92% | |
| 210 | 4% | 89% | |
| 211 | 4% | 85% | |
| 212 | 5% | 81% | |
| 213 | 6% | 76% | |
| 214 | 8% | 70% | |
| 215 | 8% | 62% | |
| 216 | 12% | 54% | Median |
| 217 | 10% | 42% | |
| 218 | 7% | 32% | |
| 219 | 5% | 25% | |
| 220 | 7% | 20% | |
| 221 | 2% | 13% | |
| 222 | 2% | 11% | |
| 223 | 2% | 9% | |
| 224 | 2% | 7% | |
| 225 | 2% | 5% | |
| 226 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 227 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 228 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 229 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 230 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 231 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 232 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 233 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 235 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 182 | 0% | 100% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 185 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 186 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 187 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 188 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 189 | 2% | 97% | |
| 190 | 2% | 95% | |
| 191 | 3% | 93% | |
| 192 | 3% | 90% | |
| 193 | 4% | 87% | |
| 194 | 7% | 83% | |
| 195 | 6% | 76% | |
| 196 | 7% | 70% | |
| 197 | 8% | 63% | Median |
| 198 | 8% | 55% | |
| 199 | 7% | 47% | |
| 200 | 8% | 40% | |
| 201 | 6% | 32% | |
| 202 | 5% | 26% | |
| 203 | 5% | 20% | |
| 204 | 4% | 16% | |
| 205 | 3% | 12% | |
| 206 | 2% | 9% | |
| 207 | 2% | 7% | |
| 208 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 209 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 210 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 211 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 212 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 213 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 214 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 216 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 169 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 170 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 171 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 172 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 173 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 174 | 2% | 94% | |
| 175 | 3% | 92% | |
| 176 | 3% | 90% | Majority |
| 177 | 4% | 86% | |
| 178 | 5% | 83% | |
| 179 | 6% | 78% | |
| 180 | 7% | 72% | |
| 181 | 8% | 65% | |
| 182 | 9% | 57% | Median |
| 183 | 9% | 48% | |
| 184 | 7% | 39% | |
| 185 | 8% | 32% | |
| 186 | 6% | 23% | |
| 187 | 4% | 18% | |
| 188 | 3% | 13% | |
| 189 | 2% | 11% | |
| 190 | 1.5% | 8% | |
| 191 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 192 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 193 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 194 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 195 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 196 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 197 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 198 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 152 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 153 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 154 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 155 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 156 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 157 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 158 | 1.5% | 95% | |
| 159 | 2% | 93% | |
| 160 | 2% | 91% | |
| 161 | 2% | 89% | |
| 162 | 3% | 87% | |
| 163 | 3% | 84% | |
| 164 | 5% | 81% | |
| 165 | 9% | 76% | |
| 166 | 11% | 67% | |
| 167 | 11% | 56% | |
| 168 | 9% | 45% | Median |
| 169 | 7% | 36% | Last Result |
| 170 | 7% | 29% | |
| 171 | 4% | 22% | |
| 172 | 4% | 17% | |
| 173 | 4% | 13% | |
| 174 | 3% | 10% | |
| 175 | 2% | 7% | |
| 176 | 2% | 5% | Majority |
| 177 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 178 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 179 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 180 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 181 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 139 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 140 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 141 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 142 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 143 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 144 | 2% | 96% | |
| 145 | 2% | 95% | |
| 146 | 3% | 93% | |
| 147 | 4% | 90% | |
| 148 | 4% | 85% | |
| 149 | 6% | 81% | |
| 150 | 7% | 76% | |
| 151 | 10% | 69% | |
| 152 | 10% | 59% | Median |
| 153 | 13% | 49% | |
| 154 | 9% | 36% | |
| 155 | 5% | 26% | |
| 156 | 3% | 21% | Last Result |
| 157 | 3% | 18% | |
| 158 | 2% | 14% | |
| 159 | 2% | 12% | |
| 160 | 2% | 10% | |
| 161 | 2% | 8% | |
| 162 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 163 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 164 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 165 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 166 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 167 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 168 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 126 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 127 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 128 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 129 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 130 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 131 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 132 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 133 | 2% | 93% | |
| 134 | 2% | 92% | |
| 135 | 2% | 90% | |
| 136 | 3% | 88% | |
| 137 | 3% | 85% | |
| 138 | 4% | 82% | |
| 139 | 6% | 78% | |
| 140 | 6% | 72% | |
| 141 | 6% | 66% | |
| 142 | 7% | 60% | |
| 143 | 8% | 52% | Median |
| 144 | 7% | 45% | |
| 145 | 8% | 37% | |
| 146 | 7% | 29% | |
| 147 | 6% | 22% | |
| 148 | 5% | 17% | |
| 149 | 3% | 12% | |
| 150 | 2% | 9% | |
| 151 | 2% | 6% | |
| 152 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 153 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 154 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 155 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 156 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 105 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 106 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 107 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 108 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 109 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 110 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 111 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 112 | 2% | 95% | |
| 113 | 3% | 93% | |
| 114 | 4% | 89% | |
| 115 | 6% | 86% | |
| 116 | 6% | 79% | |
| 117 | 11% | 73% | |
| 118 | 13% | 62% | Median |
| 119 | 9% | 49% | |
| 120 | 10% | 40% | |
| 121 | 5% | 30% | |
| 122 | 4% | 25% | |
| 123 | 4% | 20% | |
| 124 | 3% | 16% | |
| 125 | 2% | 14% | |
| 126 | 2% | 11% | |
| 127 | 2% | 9% | |
| 128 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 129 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 130 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 131 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 132 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 133 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 135 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 91 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 92 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 93 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 94 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 95 | 2% | 95% | |
| 96 | 2% | 94% | |
| 97 | 2% | 92% | |
| 98 | 2% | 90% | |
| 99 | 6% | 88% | |
| 100 | 5% | 82% | |
| 101 | 7% | 77% | |
| 102 | 8% | 69% | |
| 103 | 9% | 61% | |
| 104 | 9% | 52% | Median |
| 105 | 8% | 43% | |
| 106 | 6% | 34% | |
| 107 | 6% | 28% | |
| 108 | 4% | 22% | |
| 109 | 4% | 18% | |
| 110 | 3% | 14% | |
| 111 | 3% | 11% | |
| 112 | 2% | 8% | |
| 113 | 2% | 6% | |
| 114 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 115 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 116 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 117 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 67 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 68 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 69 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 70 | 2% | 95% | |
| 71 | 2% | 94% | |
| 72 | 2% | 92% | |
| 73 | 2% | 90% | |
| 74 | 4% | 88% | |
| 75 | 4% | 84% | |
| 76 | 9% | 80% | |
| 77 | 7% | 71% | |
| 78 | 9% | 64% | |
| 79 | 6% | 54% | Median |
| 80 | 6% | 48% | |
| 81 | 7% | 42% | |
| 82 | 8% | 34% | |
| 83 | 8% | 27% | |
| 84 | 4% | 19% | |
| 85 | 5% | 15% | |
| 86 | 3% | 10% | |
| 87 | 2% | 6% | |
| 88 | 2% | 5% | |
| 89 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 90 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: 40dB
- Commissioner(s): El País
- Fieldwork period: 14–19 March 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1500
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.38%