Opinion Poll by GAD3 for ABC, 1–22 March 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 30.9% | 30.2–31.6% | 30.0–31.8% | 29.9–32.0% | 29.5–32.3% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 21.9% | 21.3–22.5% | 21.1–22.7% | 21.0–22.9% | 20.7–23.2% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 13.1% | 12.6–13.6% | 12.5–13.8% | 12.4–13.9% | 12.1–14.1% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 11.8% | 11.3–12.3% | 11.2–12.5% | 11.1–12.6% | 10.9–12.8% |
| Vox | 0.2% | 11.5% | 11.0–12.0% | 10.9–12.1% | 10.8–12.3% | 10.6–12.5% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.4–2.9% | 2.3–2.9% | 2.3–3.0% | 2.1–3.1% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.3–1.7% | 1.3–1.8% | 1.2–1.8% | 1.2–1.9% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1–1.4% | 1.0–1.4% | 1.0–1.5% | 0.9–1.6% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6–0.9% | 0.6–0.9% | 0.5–0.9% | 0.5–1.0% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.4% | 0.2–0.4% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.2–0.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 136 | 131–139 | 131–140 | 131–142 | 129–142 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 89 | 86–95 | 85–95 | 84–95 | 82–98 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 37 | 35–41 | 35–42 | 33–43 | 30–47 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 30 | 27–32 | 26–33 | 25–34 | 25–36 |
| Vox | 0 | 30 | 28–32 | 28–32 | 27–32 | 27–34 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 9 | 11 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 10–14 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 8 | 8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 5 | 6 | 6–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–8 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 2 | 2 | 2–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 130 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 131 | 17% | 98% | |
| 132 | 4% | 81% | |
| 133 | 4% | 77% | |
| 134 | 2% | 72% | |
| 135 | 19% | 70% | |
| 136 | 21% | 51% | Median |
| 137 | 4% | 30% | |
| 138 | 14% | 26% | |
| 139 | 6% | 13% | |
| 140 | 2% | 6% | |
| 141 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 142 | 3% | 4% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 83 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 84 | 2% | 98% | |
| 85 | 3% | 96% | |
| 86 | 5% | 93% | |
| 87 | 11% | 87% | |
| 88 | 21% | 76% | |
| 89 | 17% | 56% | Median |
| 90 | 8% | 38% | |
| 91 | 5% | 30% | |
| 92 | 4% | 25% | |
| 93 | 3% | 21% | |
| 94 | 0.9% | 18% | |
| 95 | 15% | 17% | |
| 96 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 97 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 98 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 99.0% | Last Result |
| 33 | 2% | 98% | |
| 34 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 35 | 6% | 95% | |
| 36 | 30% | 89% | |
| 37 | 23% | 59% | Median |
| 38 | 16% | 36% | |
| 39 | 5% | 20% | |
| 40 | 5% | 15% | |
| 41 | 5% | 11% | |
| 42 | 2% | 5% | |
| 43 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 44 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 25 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 26 | 6% | 97% | |
| 27 | 3% | 91% | |
| 28 | 10% | 87% | |
| 29 | 22% | 78% | |
| 30 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 31 | 22% | 44% | |
| 32 | 16% | 22% | |
| 33 | 3% | 7% | |
| 34 | 2% | 3% | |
| 35 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 11% | 97% | |
| 29 | 17% | 86% | |
| 30 | 39% | 69% | Median |
| 31 | 13% | 30% | |
| 32 | 15% | 17% | |
| 33 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 34 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 10 | 10% | 100% | |
| 11 | 65% | 90% | Median |
| 12 | 2% | 25% | |
| 13 | 10% | 23% | |
| 14 | 14% | 14% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 30% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 6% | 70% | |
| 7 | 11% | 64% | |
| 8 | 53% | 53% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 4% | 98% | Last Result |
| 6 | 82% | 94% | Median |
| 7 | 5% | 12% | |
| 8 | 7% | 7% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5% | 100% | |
| 2 | 56% | 95% | Last Result, Median |
| 3 | 26% | 39% | |
| 4 | 13% | 13% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 100% | |
| 1 | 90% | 90% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 254 | 262 | 100% | 260–266 | 258–267 | 258–268 | 256–270 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular | 222 | 225 | 100% | 221–228 | 220–230 | 218–231 | 217–235 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 203 | 100% | 196–207 | 196–208 | 196–210 | 194–211 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 180 | 192 | 100% | 188–196 | 188–197 | 188–198 | 184–200 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 173 | 184 | 99.8% | 179–187 | 179–188 | 179–190 | 176–191 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu | 167 | 179 | 81% | 174–184 | 174–184 | 174–186 | 172–188 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 163 | 174 | 28% | 169–178 | 169–179 | 168–180 | 167–183 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 173 | 20% | 167–177 | 167–179 | 167–180 | 164–181 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 161 | 172 | 10% | 166–176 | 166–176 | 166–177 | 164–180 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 166 | 0.1% | 160–169 | 160–171 | 160–172 | 158–174 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox | 169 | 157 | 0% | 153–161 | 152–161 | 151–161 | 149–165 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 136 | 0% | 131–139 | 131–140 | 131–142 | 129–142 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 174 | 133 | 0% | 129–137 | 128–138 | 127–139 | 125–141 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 170 | 127 | 0% | 124–132 | 123–133 | 122–134 | 119–136 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 126 | 0% | 123–131 | 122–132 | 121–133 | 119–135 |
| Partido Popular – Vox | 137 | 119 | 0% | 116–125 | 115–125 | 114–125 | 111–128 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 89 | 0% | 86–95 | 85–95 | 84–95 | 82–98 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 254 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 255 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 256 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 257 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 258 | 3% | 98% | |
| 259 | 3% | 95% | |
| 260 | 12% | 92% | |
| 261 | 17% | 80% | |
| 262 | 31% | 63% | Median |
| 263 | 5% | 31% | |
| 264 | 11% | 26% | |
| 265 | 6% | 16% | |
| 266 | 3% | 10% | |
| 267 | 4% | 7% | |
| 268 | 3% | 4% | |
| 269 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 270 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 271 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 272 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 215 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 216 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 217 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 218 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 219 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 220 | 4% | 96% | |
| 221 | 3% | 92% | |
| 222 | 5% | 89% | Last Result |
| 223 | 12% | 84% | |
| 224 | 13% | 73% | |
| 225 | 16% | 60% | Median |
| 226 | 22% | 44% | |
| 227 | 10% | 22% | |
| 228 | 3% | 12% | |
| 229 | 3% | 9% | |
| 230 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 231 | 3% | 5% | |
| 232 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 233 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 234 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 235 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 236 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 237 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 238 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 193 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 195 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 196 | 13% | 99.0% | |
| 197 | 1.2% | 86% | |
| 198 | 2% | 85% | |
| 199 | 3% | 83% | |
| 200 | 3% | 80% | |
| 201 | 10% | 77% | |
| 202 | 12% | 67% | |
| 203 | 9% | 54% | Median |
| 204 | 13% | 45% | |
| 205 | 12% | 32% | |
| 206 | 9% | 20% | |
| 207 | 5% | 11% | |
| 208 | 2% | 6% | |
| 209 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 210 | 2% | 3% | |
| 211 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 212 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 180 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 181 | 0% | 100% | |
| 182 | 0% | 100% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 184 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 185 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 186 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 187 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 188 | 16% | 98% | |
| 189 | 5% | 81% | |
| 190 | 7% | 76% | |
| 191 | 9% | 69% | |
| 192 | 14% | 60% | |
| 193 | 9% | 46% | Median |
| 194 | 15% | 37% | |
| 195 | 7% | 22% | |
| 196 | 9% | 15% | |
| 197 | 4% | 7% | |
| 198 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 199 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 200 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 173 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 174 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 176 | 0.5% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 178 | 0.9% | 98.7% | |
| 179 | 14% | 98% | |
| 180 | 3% | 84% | |
| 181 | 9% | 81% | |
| 182 | 5% | 72% | |
| 183 | 9% | 66% | |
| 184 | 20% | 57% | |
| 185 | 4% | 37% | Median |
| 186 | 18% | 33% | |
| 187 | 6% | 15% | |
| 188 | 5% | 9% | |
| 189 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 190 | 2% | 3% | |
| 191 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 167 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 168 | 0% | 100% | |
| 169 | 0% | 100% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 172 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 173 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 174 | 14% | 98% | |
| 175 | 3% | 84% | |
| 176 | 3% | 81% | Majority |
| 177 | 6% | 78% | |
| 178 | 19% | 72% | |
| 179 | 9% | 54% | Median |
| 180 | 10% | 45% | |
| 181 | 6% | 35% | |
| 182 | 9% | 29% | |
| 183 | 8% | 19% | |
| 184 | 6% | 11% | |
| 185 | 2% | 5% | |
| 186 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 187 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 188 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 163 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 164 | 0% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 167 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 168 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 169 | 15% | 97% | |
| 170 | 6% | 82% | |
| 171 | 4% | 77% | |
| 172 | 7% | 72% | |
| 173 | 5% | 65% | |
| 174 | 15% | 61% | Median |
| 175 | 18% | 46% | |
| 176 | 7% | 28% | Majority |
| 177 | 5% | 21% | |
| 178 | 10% | 16% | |
| 179 | 3% | 6% | |
| 180 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 181 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 182 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 183 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 166 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 167 | 14% | 98% | |
| 168 | 3% | 85% | |
| 169 | 2% | 82% | |
| 170 | 5% | 80% | |
| 171 | 6% | 75% | |
| 172 | 16% | 69% | |
| 173 | 9% | 53% | Median |
| 174 | 16% | 44% | |
| 175 | 7% | 27% | |
| 176 | 7% | 20% | Majority |
| 177 | 3% | 12% | |
| 178 | 4% | 9% | |
| 179 | 3% | 6% | |
| 180 | 2% | 3% | |
| 181 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 161 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 162 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 165 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 166 | 15% | 98.7% | |
| 167 | 2% | 84% | |
| 168 | 6% | 82% | |
| 169 | 6% | 76% | |
| 170 | 6% | 69% | |
| 171 | 7% | 63% | |
| 172 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 173 | 18% | 44% | |
| 174 | 14% | 26% | |
| 175 | 2% | 12% | |
| 176 | 6% | 10% | Majority |
| 177 | 2% | 5% | |
| 178 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 179 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 180 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 157 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 159 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 160 | 15% | 98.7% | |
| 161 | 2% | 83% | |
| 162 | 6% | 82% | |
| 163 | 7% | 76% | |
| 164 | 6% | 68% | |
| 165 | 11% | 62% | |
| 166 | 12% | 51% | Median |
| 167 | 13% | 39% | |
| 168 | 13% | 26% | |
| 169 | 4% | 13% | |
| 170 | 4% | 9% | |
| 171 | 3% | 5% | |
| 172 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 173 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 174 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 147 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 150 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 151 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 152 | 4% | 97% | |
| 153 | 8% | 93% | |
| 154 | 6% | 85% | |
| 155 | 15% | 78% | |
| 156 | 9% | 63% | Median |
| 157 | 14% | 55% | |
| 158 | 10% | 41% | |
| 159 | 4% | 31% | |
| 160 | 7% | 27% | |
| 161 | 17% | 20% | |
| 162 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 163 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 164 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 165 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 130 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 131 | 17% | 98% | |
| 132 | 4% | 81% | |
| 133 | 4% | 77% | |
| 134 | 2% | 72% | |
| 135 | 19% | 70% | |
| 136 | 21% | 51% | Median |
| 137 | 4% | 30% | |
| 138 | 14% | 26% | |
| 139 | 6% | 13% | |
| 140 | 2% | 6% | |
| 141 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 142 | 3% | 4% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 126 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 127 | 3% | 98% | |
| 128 | 3% | 95% | |
| 129 | 2% | 92% | |
| 130 | 9% | 90% | |
| 131 | 9% | 81% | |
| 132 | 20% | 72% | Median |
| 133 | 13% | 51% | |
| 134 | 8% | 38% | |
| 135 | 6% | 30% | |
| 136 | 3% | 24% | |
| 137 | 15% | 21% | |
| 138 | 3% | 6% | |
| 139 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 140 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 141 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 119 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 121 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 122 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 123 | 4% | 97% | |
| 124 | 7% | 93% | |
| 125 | 5% | 86% | |
| 126 | 15% | 81% | |
| 127 | 21% | 66% | Median |
| 128 | 9% | 44% | |
| 129 | 7% | 35% | |
| 130 | 4% | 28% | |
| 131 | 3% | 24% | |
| 132 | 15% | 21% | |
| 133 | 3% | 6% | |
| 134 | 2% | 3% | |
| 135 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 136 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 120 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 121 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 122 | 3% | 97% | |
| 123 | 6% | 94% | |
| 124 | 6% | 87% | |
| 125 | 15% | 81% | |
| 126 | 20% | 66% | Median |
| 127 | 8% | 46% | |
| 128 | 8% | 38% | |
| 129 | 6% | 30% | |
| 130 | 3% | 24% | |
| 131 | 15% | 21% | |
| 132 | 3% | 6% | |
| 133 | 2% | 3% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 135 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 110 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 112 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 113 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 114 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 115 | 2% | 96% | |
| 116 | 5% | 94% | |
| 117 | 18% | 89% | |
| 118 | 15% | 71% | |
| 119 | 11% | 57% | Median |
| 120 | 12% | 46% | |
| 121 | 9% | 34% | |
| 122 | 4% | 24% | |
| 123 | 4% | 20% | |
| 124 | 1.0% | 16% | |
| 125 | 14% | 15% | |
| 126 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 83 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 84 | 2% | 98% | |
| 85 | 3% | 96% | |
| 86 | 5% | 93% | |
| 87 | 11% | 87% | |
| 88 | 21% | 76% | |
| 89 | 17% | 56% | Median |
| 90 | 8% | 38% | |
| 91 | 5% | 30% | |
| 92 | 4% | 25% | |
| 93 | 3% | 21% | |
| 94 | 0.9% | 18% | |
| 95 | 15% | 17% | |
| 96 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 97 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 98 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GAD3
- Commissioner(s): ABC
- Fieldwork period: 1–22 March 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 7500
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.04%