Opinion Poll by electoPanel for electomania.es, 22 February–24 March 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 28.6% | 28.0–29.2% | 27.8–29.4% | 27.6–29.6% | 27.3–29.9% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 20.1% | 19.5–20.7% | 19.4–20.9% | 19.2–21.0% | 19.0–21.3% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 16.3% | 15.8–16.8% | 15.6–17.0% | 15.5–17.1% | 15.3–17.4% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 12.9% | 12.4–13.4% | 12.3–13.5% | 12.2–13.7% | 12.0–13.9% |
| Vox | 0.2% | 10.5% | 10.1–11.0% | 10.0–11.1% | 9.8–11.2% | 9.6–11.4% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.2–2.6% | 2.1–2.7% | 2.1–2.8% | 2.0–2.9% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.1–1.5% | 1.1–1.5% | 1.1–1.6% | 1.0–1.7% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1–1.5% | 1.1–1.5% | 1.1–1.6% | 1.0–1.7% |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.0–1.3% | 0.9–1.3% | 0.9–1.4% | 0.8–1.4% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8–1.1% | 0.7–1.1% | 0.7–1.1% | 0.7–1.2% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.3% | 0.1–0.3% | 0.1–0.3% | 0.1–0.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 126 | 122–129 | 121–131 | 120–132 | 119–135 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 80 | 78–84 | 77–85 | 76–85 | 73–86 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 55 | 53–60 | 52–61 | 52–62 | 52–62 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 36 | 33–36 | 33–37 | 32–38 | 32–39 |
| Vox | 0 | 26 | 24–27 | 23–27 | 22–29 | 22–30 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 9 | 11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 8 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 5 | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 2 | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–6 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 120 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 121 | 4% | 97% | |
| 122 | 13% | 93% | |
| 123 | 7% | 80% | |
| 124 | 5% | 73% | |
| 125 | 9% | 68% | |
| 126 | 14% | 59% | Median |
| 127 | 7% | 46% | |
| 128 | 24% | 39% | |
| 129 | 5% | 15% | |
| 130 | 4% | 9% | |
| 131 | 2% | 6% | |
| 132 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 134 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 135 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 76 | 3% | 98% | |
| 77 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 78 | 15% | 94% | |
| 79 | 27% | 79% | |
| 80 | 20% | 52% | Median |
| 81 | 6% | 33% | |
| 82 | 9% | 27% | |
| 83 | 7% | 18% | |
| 84 | 4% | 12% | |
| 85 | 6% | 8% | |
| 86 | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 52 | 6% | 99.7% | |
| 53 | 20% | 94% | |
| 54 | 4% | 74% | |
| 55 | 23% | 70% | Median |
| 56 | 2% | 48% | |
| 57 | 14% | 45% | |
| 58 | 3% | 31% | |
| 59 | 11% | 29% | |
| 60 | 9% | 17% | |
| 61 | 3% | 8% | |
| 62 | 5% | 5% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 33 | 9% | 97% | |
| 34 | 17% | 88% | |
| 35 | 7% | 71% | |
| 36 | 57% | 63% | Median |
| 37 | 3% | 6% | |
| 38 | 3% | 3% | |
| 39 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 7% | 97% | |
| 24 | 15% | 90% | |
| 25 | 13% | 75% | |
| 26 | 50% | 63% | Median |
| 27 | 9% | 12% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 29 | 2% | 3% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 32 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 10 | 25% | 96% | |
| 11 | 30% | 71% | Median |
| 12 | 38% | 41% | |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 15% | 100% | |
| 5 | 38% | 85% | Median |
| 6 | 46% | 47% | |
| 7 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 89% | 99.8% | Median |
| 7 | 8% | 10% | |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Euskal Herria Bildu
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 5% | 96% | |
| 4 | 71% | 90% | Median |
| 5 | 19% | 20% | |
| 6 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 68% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 32% | 32% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 254 | 262 | 100% | 259–265 | 259–266 | 259–266 | 256–268 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 218 | 100% | 215–220 | 213–222 | 213–222 | 211–223 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular | 222 | 207 | 100% | 202–210 | 201–211 | 199–211 | 199–212 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euskal Herria Bildu | 180 | 188 | 100% | 183–192 | 182–193 | 181–195 | 181–197 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 183 | 99.8% | 179–185 | 178–187 | 177–187 | 176–188 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 173 | 178 | 78% | 173–181 | 172–183 | 171–185 | 171–187 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu | 167 | 177 | 55% | 172–180 | 171–181 | 170–184 | 170–186 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 163 | 171 | 7% | 168–175 | 166–176 | 166–179 | 165–180 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 161 | 167 | 0.9% | 163–171 | 163–173 | 162–174 | 161–177 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 161 | 0% | 157–165 | 156–167 | 156–168 | 155–171 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox | 169 | 162 | 0% | 158–166 | 157–167 | 154–168 | 153–169 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 174 | 143 | 0% | 137–147 | 137–149 | 135–149 | 133–151 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 170 | 138 | 0% | 132–141 | 131–142 | 130–143 | 127–146 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 137 | 0% | 131–141 | 130–142 | 129–143 | 127–145 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 126 | 0% | 122–129 | 121–131 | 120–132 | 119–135 |
| Partido Popular – Vox | 137 | 105 | 0% | 103–109 | 102–110 | 101–111 | 99–112 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 80 | 0% | 78–84 | 77–85 | 76–85 | 73–86 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 254 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 255 | 0% | 100% | |
| 256 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 257 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 258 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 259 | 14% | 98% | |
| 260 | 5% | 84% | |
| 261 | 10% | 79% | Median |
| 262 | 21% | 70% | |
| 263 | 20% | 49% | |
| 264 | 16% | 29% | |
| 265 | 4% | 13% | |
| 266 | 7% | 9% | |
| 267 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 268 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 269 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 270 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0% | 100% | |
| 195 | 0% | 100% | |
| 196 | 0% | 100% | |
| 197 | 0% | 100% | |
| 198 | 0% | 100% | |
| 199 | 0% | 100% | |
| 200 | 0% | 100% | |
| 201 | 0% | 100% | |
| 202 | 0% | 100% | |
| 203 | 0% | 100% | |
| 204 | 0% | 100% | |
| 205 | 0% | 100% | |
| 206 | 0% | 100% | |
| 207 | 0% | 100% | |
| 208 | 0% | 100% | |
| 209 | 0% | 100% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 211 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 212 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 213 | 3% | 98% | |
| 214 | 4% | 94% | |
| 215 | 20% | 91% | |
| 216 | 9% | 71% | |
| 217 | 6% | 62% | Median |
| 218 | 12% | 56% | |
| 219 | 30% | 44% | |
| 220 | 4% | 13% | |
| 221 | 3% | 9% | |
| 222 | 5% | 6% | |
| 223 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 224 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 225 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 226 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 197 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 199 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 200 | 2% | 97% | |
| 201 | 2% | 95% | |
| 202 | 9% | 93% | |
| 203 | 8% | 84% | |
| 204 | 7% | 76% | |
| 205 | 10% | 69% | |
| 206 | 6% | 60% | Median |
| 207 | 20% | 54% | |
| 208 | 10% | 33% | |
| 209 | 7% | 23% | |
| 210 | 8% | 16% | |
| 211 | 7% | 8% | |
| 212 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 213 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 179 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 181 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 182 | 2% | 97% | |
| 183 | 5% | 95% | |
| 184 | 6% | 90% | |
| 185 | 5% | 84% | |
| 186 | 19% | 79% | |
| 187 | 8% | 60% | |
| 188 | 9% | 52% | Median |
| 189 | 4% | 43% | |
| 190 | 20% | 39% | |
| 191 | 7% | 20% | |
| 192 | 7% | 12% | |
| 193 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 194 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 195 | 2% | 3% | |
| 196 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 197 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 198 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 199 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0% | 100% | |
| 166 | 0% | 100% | |
| 167 | 0% | 100% | |
| 168 | 0% | 100% | |
| 169 | 0% | 100% | |
| 170 | 0% | 100% | |
| 171 | 0% | 100% | |
| 172 | 0% | 100% | |
| 173 | 0% | 100% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 176 | 1.1% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 177 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 178 | 4% | 97% | |
| 179 | 16% | 93% | |
| 180 | 8% | 77% | |
| 181 | 7% | 69% | Median |
| 182 | 11% | 62% | |
| 183 | 23% | 51% | |
| 184 | 4% | 28% | |
| 185 | 15% | 24% | |
| 186 | 4% | 9% | |
| 187 | 4% | 5% | |
| 188 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 189 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 190 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 169 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 170 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 171 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 172 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 173 | 5% | 94% | Last Result |
| 174 | 6% | 89% | |
| 175 | 6% | 83% | |
| 176 | 25% | 78% | Majority |
| 177 | 1.5% | 53% | |
| 178 | 9% | 52% | Median |
| 179 | 5% | 42% | |
| 180 | 19% | 38% | |
| 181 | 10% | 19% | |
| 182 | 3% | 9% | |
| 183 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 184 | 2% | 5% | |
| 185 | 2% | 3% | |
| 186 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 187 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 188 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 166 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 167 | 0% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 168 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 169 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 170 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 171 | 4% | 96% | |
| 172 | 6% | 92% | |
| 173 | 4% | 86% | |
| 174 | 11% | 82% | |
| 175 | 17% | 71% | |
| 176 | 3% | 55% | Majority |
| 177 | 11% | 51% | Median |
| 178 | 18% | 40% | |
| 179 | 1.2% | 22% | |
| 180 | 11% | 21% | |
| 181 | 5% | 10% | |
| 182 | 2% | 5% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 184 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 185 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 186 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 187 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 163 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 164 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 166 | 6% | 99.2% | |
| 167 | 3% | 93% | |
| 168 | 15% | 90% | |
| 169 | 11% | 76% | |
| 170 | 10% | 64% | |
| 171 | 5% | 55% | |
| 172 | 8% | 50% | Median |
| 173 | 3% | 42% | |
| 174 | 23% | 39% | |
| 175 | 9% | 15% | |
| 176 | 2% | 7% | Majority |
| 177 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 178 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 179 | 2% | 3% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 181 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 160 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0.6% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 162 | 4% | 99.2% | |
| 163 | 6% | 95% | |
| 164 | 15% | 89% | |
| 165 | 15% | 75% | |
| 166 | 4% | 60% | |
| 167 | 6% | 56% | |
| 168 | 8% | 49% | Median |
| 169 | 3% | 42% | |
| 170 | 27% | 38% | |
| 171 | 6% | 12% | |
| 172 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 173 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 174 | 2% | 4% | |
| 175 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 0.9% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 155 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 156 | 6% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 157 | 7% | 93% | |
| 158 | 12% | 87% | |
| 159 | 17% | 74% | |
| 160 | 3% | 57% | |
| 161 | 5% | 54% | |
| 162 | 9% | 49% | Median |
| 163 | 2% | 40% | |
| 164 | 26% | 38% | |
| 165 | 6% | 12% | |
| 166 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 167 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 168 | 2% | 4% | |
| 169 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 170 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 171 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 151 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 154 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 155 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 156 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 157 | 3% | 95% | |
| 158 | 5% | 93% | |
| 159 | 9% | 87% | |
| 160 | 19% | 78% | |
| 161 | 5% | 59% | Median |
| 162 | 8% | 55% | |
| 163 | 18% | 47% | |
| 164 | 8% | 28% | |
| 165 | 7% | 20% | |
| 166 | 7% | 14% | |
| 167 | 3% | 7% | |
| 168 | 2% | 4% | |
| 169 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 170 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 130 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 134 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 135 | 2% | 98% | |
| 136 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 137 | 7% | 95% | |
| 138 | 0.8% | 88% | |
| 139 | 2% | 87% | |
| 140 | 15% | 85% | |
| 141 | 9% | 70% | Median |
| 142 | 3% | 61% | |
| 143 | 12% | 57% | |
| 144 | 22% | 45% | |
| 145 | 4% | 23% | |
| 146 | 7% | 19% | |
| 147 | 6% | 12% | |
| 148 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 149 | 4% | 5% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 151 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 152 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 128 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 129 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 130 | 2% | 98% | |
| 131 | 5% | 95% | |
| 132 | 2% | 90% | |
| 133 | 1.4% | 88% | |
| 134 | 17% | 86% | |
| 135 | 8% | 70% | Median |
| 136 | 4% | 62% | |
| 137 | 5% | 58% | |
| 138 | 28% | 53% | |
| 139 | 6% | 25% | |
| 140 | 6% | 19% | |
| 141 | 6% | 13% | |
| 142 | 4% | 8% | |
| 143 | 2% | 4% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 145 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 146 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 128 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 129 | 2% | 98% | |
| 130 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 131 | 7% | 95% | |
| 132 | 0.9% | 88% | |
| 133 | 2% | 87% | |
| 134 | 16% | 85% | |
| 135 | 9% | 69% | Median |
| 136 | 4% | 60% | |
| 137 | 14% | 57% | |
| 138 | 22% | 43% | |
| 139 | 3% | 21% | |
| 140 | 8% | 18% | |
| 141 | 5% | 10% | |
| 142 | 2% | 5% | |
| 143 | 2% | 3% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 145 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 146 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 120 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 121 | 4% | 97% | |
| 122 | 13% | 93% | |
| 123 | 7% | 80% | |
| 124 | 5% | 73% | |
| 125 | 9% | 68% | |
| 126 | 14% | 59% | Median |
| 127 | 7% | 46% | |
| 128 | 24% | 39% | |
| 129 | 5% | 15% | |
| 130 | 4% | 9% | |
| 131 | 2% | 6% | |
| 132 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 134 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 135 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 101 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 102 | 2% | 97% | |
| 103 | 12% | 95% | |
| 104 | 13% | 83% | |
| 105 | 28% | 70% | |
| 106 | 14% | 42% | Median |
| 107 | 7% | 28% | |
| 108 | 4% | 21% | |
| 109 | 9% | 16% | |
| 110 | 3% | 7% | |
| 111 | 2% | 4% | |
| 112 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 76 | 3% | 98% | |
| 77 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 78 | 15% | 94% | |
| 79 | 27% | 79% | |
| 80 | 20% | 52% | Median |
| 81 | 6% | 33% | |
| 82 | 9% | 27% | |
| 83 | 7% | 18% | |
| 84 | 4% | 12% | |
| 85 | 6% | 8% | |
| 86 | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: electoPanel
- Commissioner(s): electomania.es
- Fieldwork period: 22 February–24 March 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 8200
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.90%