Opinion Poll by Celeste-Tel for eldiario.es, 26 March–3 April 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 27.2% | 25.5–29.0% | 25.0–29.5% | 24.6–29.9% | 23.8–30.8% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 23.6% | 22.0–25.3% | 21.6–25.8% | 21.2–26.2% | 20.5–27.1% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 15.7% | 14.4–17.2% | 14.0–17.6% | 13.7–18.0% | 13.1–18.7% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 13.8% | 12.6–15.2% | 12.2–15.6% | 11.9–16.0% | 11.3–16.7% |
| Vox | 0.2% | 8.7% | 7.7–9.9% | 7.4–10.3% | 7.2–10.5% | 6.7–11.1% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.3–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 2.0–4.0% | 1.8–4.4% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.9–2.9% |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.2–2.1% | 1.1–2.3% | 1.0–2.5% | 0.8–2.8% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.7% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.3% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.3–1.7% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 110 | 107–125 | 104–125 | 103–128 | 97–133 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 98 | 90–106 | 88–110 | 86–112 | 82–118 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 54 | 47–58 | 43–61 | 41–62 | 36–64 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 36 | 33–41 | 33–43 | 30–46 | 28–49 |
| Vox | 0 | 19 | 15–22 | 13–23 | 13–25 | 11–28 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 9 | 12 | 9–15 | 8–15 | 7–16 | 7–17 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 8 | 8 | 4–8 | 4–10 | 1–10 | 1–11 |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 5 | 6 | 4–7 | 3–7 | 3–8 | 3–10 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 2 | 2 | 2–4 | 1–5 | 1–7 | 0–7 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–4 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 100 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 101 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 103 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 104 | 3% | 97% | |
| 105 | 3% | 94% | |
| 106 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 107 | 3% | 90% | |
| 108 | 4% | 88% | |
| 109 | 0.6% | 84% | |
| 110 | 33% | 83% | Median |
| 111 | 12% | 50% | |
| 112 | 1.1% | 38% | |
| 113 | 2% | 37% | |
| 114 | 1.1% | 35% | |
| 115 | 3% | 33% | |
| 116 | 3% | 31% | |
| 117 | 9% | 28% | |
| 118 | 3% | 18% | |
| 119 | 0.9% | 15% | |
| 120 | 2% | 15% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 13% | |
| 123 | 0.3% | 13% | |
| 124 | 0.6% | 12% | |
| 125 | 8% | 12% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 128 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 129 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 131 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 133 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 134 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 83 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 84 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 86 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 87 | 2% | 97% | |
| 88 | 2% | 95% | |
| 89 | 0.9% | 93% | |
| 90 | 3% | 92% | |
| 91 | 4% | 89% | |
| 92 | 4% | 86% | |
| 93 | 0.3% | 82% | |
| 94 | 0.9% | 82% | |
| 95 | 12% | 81% | |
| 96 | 3% | 68% | |
| 97 | 1.2% | 65% | |
| 98 | 32% | 64% | Median |
| 99 | 2% | 32% | |
| 100 | 2% | 31% | |
| 101 | 0.9% | 28% | |
| 102 | 8% | 28% | |
| 103 | 4% | 19% | |
| 104 | 0.9% | 15% | |
| 105 | 0.5% | 14% | |
| 106 | 4% | 13% | |
| 107 | 2% | 10% | |
| 108 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 109 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 110 | 3% | 6% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 40 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 41 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 43 | 3% | 97% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 93% | |
| 47 | 4% | 92% | |
| 48 | 4% | 89% | |
| 49 | 1.2% | 85% | |
| 50 | 2% | 83% | |
| 51 | 10% | 81% | |
| 52 | 3% | 71% | |
| 53 | 3% | 67% | |
| 54 | 20% | 64% | Median |
| 55 | 0.9% | 44% | |
| 56 | 1.3% | 43% | |
| 57 | 3% | 42% | |
| 58 | 30% | 39% | |
| 59 | 1.1% | 8% | |
| 60 | 1.5% | 7% | |
| 61 | 3% | 6% | |
| 62 | 2% | 3% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 29 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 30 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 32 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 33 | 11% | 95% | |
| 34 | 5% | 84% | |
| 35 | 5% | 79% | |
| 36 | 31% | 75% | Median |
| 37 | 2% | 44% | |
| 38 | 9% | 42% | |
| 39 | 6% | 33% | |
| 40 | 16% | 26% | |
| 41 | 2% | 10% | |
| 42 | 2% | 8% | |
| 43 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 44 | 2% | 5% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 47 | 2% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 13 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 14 | 2% | 95% | |
| 15 | 3% | 93% | |
| 16 | 3% | 90% | |
| 17 | 2% | 86% | |
| 18 | 8% | 85% | |
| 19 | 37% | 77% | Median |
| 20 | 4% | 40% | |
| 21 | 24% | 36% | |
| 22 | 2% | 12% | |
| 23 | 5% | 9% | |
| 24 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 25 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 4% | 96% | |
| 9 | 4% | 92% | Last Result |
| 10 | 10% | 88% | |
| 11 | 16% | 78% | |
| 12 | 42% | 63% | Median |
| 13 | 3% | 21% | |
| 14 | 5% | 18% | |
| 15 | 10% | 13% | |
| 16 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 17 | 1.1% | 1.5% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 4 | 6% | 96% | |
| 5 | 5% | 90% | |
| 6 | 7% | 85% | |
| 7 | 4% | 78% | |
| 8 | 65% | 74% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 3% | 9% | |
| 10 | 6% | 6% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 79% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 21% | 21% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 9% | 95% | |
| 5 | 9% | 85% | Last Result |
| 6 | 61% | 76% | Median |
| 7 | 10% | 15% | |
| 8 | 4% | 5% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 1 | 9% | 99.2% | |
| 2 | 64% | 91% | Last Result, Median |
| 3 | 8% | 27% | |
| 4 | 11% | 19% | |
| 5 | 5% | 9% | |
| 6 | 2% | 4% | |
| 7 | 2% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12% | 100% | |
| 1 | 80% | 88% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 6% | 8% | |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 254 | 266 | 100% | 260–270 | 256–272 | 256–276 | 250–279 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular | 222 | 208 | 100% | 206–219 | 202–224 | 199–226 | 197–232 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 204 | 100% | 195–213 | 194–217 | 190–218 | 183–223 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 180 | 175 | 46% | 173–187 | 168–189 | 165–193 | 161–198 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 173 | 167 | 16% | 163–180 | 159–182 | 156–184 | 152–191 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox | 169 | 174 | 14% | 161–176 | 159–180 | 156–183 | 151–187 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu | 167 | 163 | 10% | 158–176 | 156–180 | 153–181 | 147–187 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 168 | 11% | 159–176 | 156–179 | 152–179 | 145–185 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 163 | 156 | 2% | 154–169 | 151–171 | 149–174 | 142–181 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 161 | 154 | 1.3% | 150–166 | 148–169 | 145–171 | 138–180 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 174 | 158 | 0.5% | 149–165 | 143–168 | 142–170 | 137–175 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 150 | 0.1% | 144–161 | 142–164 | 139–165 | 132–174 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 170 | 154 | 0.1% | 144–160 | 139–163 | 137–165 | 132–170 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 153 | 0% | 143–160 | 138–162 | 136–164 | 131–169 |
| Partido Popular – Vox | 137 | 117 | 0% | 109–126 | 105–129 | 102–131 | 99–136 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 110 | 0% | 107–125 | 104–125 | 103–128 | 97–133 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 98 | 0% | 90–106 | 88–110 | 86–112 | 82–118 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 245 | 0% | 100% | |
| 246 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 247 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 248 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 249 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 250 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 251 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 253 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 254 | 0.5% | 98.7% | Last Result |
| 255 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 256 | 3% | 98% | |
| 257 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 258 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 259 | 2% | 93% | |
| 260 | 16% | 91% | |
| 261 | 2% | 75% | |
| 262 | 4% | 73% | Median |
| 263 | 4% | 69% | |
| 264 | 0.7% | 65% | |
| 265 | 3% | 65% | |
| 266 | 30% | 62% | |
| 267 | 6% | 32% | |
| 268 | 5% | 26% | |
| 269 | 3% | 21% | |
| 270 | 9% | 18% | |
| 271 | 1.4% | 9% | |
| 272 | 3% | 8% | |
| 273 | 2% | 5% | |
| 274 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 275 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 276 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 277 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 278 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 279 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 280 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 281 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 282 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 283 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 284 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 192 | 0% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 198 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 199 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 200 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 201 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 202 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 203 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 204 | 2% | 94% | |
| 205 | 2% | 92% | |
| 206 | 14% | 90% | |
| 207 | 1.1% | 76% | |
| 208 | 32% | 75% | Median |
| 209 | 2% | 43% | |
| 210 | 3% | 40% | |
| 211 | 2% | 37% | |
| 212 | 0.7% | 36% | |
| 213 | 0.8% | 35% | |
| 214 | 4% | 34% | |
| 215 | 3% | 31% | |
| 216 | 4% | 28% | |
| 217 | 3% | 24% | |
| 218 | 1.5% | 21% | |
| 219 | 10% | 20% | |
| 220 | 2% | 10% | |
| 221 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 222 | 0.7% | 8% | Last Result |
| 223 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 224 | 3% | 6% | |
| 225 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 226 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 227 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 228 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 229 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 230 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 231 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 232 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 233 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 234 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 235 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 236 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 237 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 238 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 239 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 240 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 241 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 178 | 0% | 100% | |
| 179 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 183 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 186 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 188 | 0.8% | 98.7% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 190 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 191 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 193 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 194 | 5% | 95% | |
| 195 | 3% | 90% | |
| 196 | 3% | 88% | |
| 197 | 2% | 85% | |
| 198 | 0.6% | 83% | |
| 199 | 0.7% | 82% | |
| 200 | 1.0% | 81% | Median |
| 201 | 11% | 80% | |
| 202 | 3% | 70% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 67% | |
| 204 | 31% | 67% | |
| 205 | 11% | 37% | |
| 206 | 0.8% | 25% | |
| 207 | 0.7% | 25% | |
| 208 | 2% | 24% | |
| 209 | 2% | 22% | |
| 210 | 4% | 20% | |
| 211 | 2% | 16% | |
| 212 | 3% | 14% | |
| 213 | 3% | 11% | |
| 214 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 215 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 216 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 217 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 218 | 3% | 4% | |
| 219 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 221 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 222 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 223 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 224 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 226 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 227 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 228 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 229 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 230 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 156 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 160 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 165 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 166 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 167 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 169 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 170 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 171 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 172 | 4% | 94% | |
| 173 | 3% | 90% | |
| 174 | 32% | 87% | Median |
| 175 | 9% | 55% | |
| 176 | 3% | 46% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.6% | 42% | |
| 178 | 2% | 42% | |
| 179 | 17% | 40% | |
| 180 | 1.2% | 23% | Last Result |
| 181 | 2% | 22% | |
| 182 | 2% | 20% | |
| 183 | 1.1% | 17% | |
| 184 | 0.4% | 16% | |
| 185 | 2% | 16% | |
| 186 | 0.6% | 13% | |
| 187 | 4% | 13% | |
| 188 | 4% | 9% | |
| 189 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 190 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 192 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 193 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 194 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 195 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 196 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 197 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 198 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 146 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 151 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 156 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 157 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 158 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 161 | 0.5% | 94% | |
| 162 | 2% | 94% | |
| 163 | 2% | 91% | |
| 164 | 2% | 90% | |
| 165 | 3% | 88% | |
| 166 | 34% | 85% | Median |
| 167 | 2% | 51% | |
| 168 | 1.2% | 49% | |
| 169 | 11% | 48% | |
| 170 | 3% | 37% | |
| 171 | 13% | 34% | |
| 172 | 3% | 22% | |
| 173 | 0.6% | 19% | Last Result |
| 174 | 1.4% | 18% | |
| 175 | 0.7% | 16% | |
| 176 | 0.5% | 16% | Majority |
| 177 | 2% | 15% | |
| 178 | 2% | 14% | |
| 179 | 0.7% | 12% | |
| 180 | 3% | 11% | |
| 181 | 1.5% | 8% | |
| 182 | 4% | 7% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 184 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 186 | 0% | 2% | |
| 187 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 188 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 189 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 190 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 192 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 151 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 152 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 153 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 154 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 156 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 157 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 161 | 5% | 95% | |
| 162 | 0.7% | 90% | |
| 163 | 4% | 89% | |
| 164 | 1.5% | 85% | |
| 165 | 0.4% | 84% | |
| 166 | 2% | 83% | |
| 167 | 2% | 81% | |
| 168 | 1.1% | 79% | |
| 169 | 6% | 78% | Last Result |
| 170 | 13% | 72% | |
| 171 | 1.4% | 59% | Median |
| 172 | 2% | 58% | |
| 173 | 3% | 56% | |
| 174 | 9% | 53% | |
| 175 | 30% | 44% | |
| 176 | 5% | 14% | Majority |
| 177 | 4% | 10% | |
| 178 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 179 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 180 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 181 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 182 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 183 | 2% | 4% | |
| 184 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 187 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 144 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 153 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 154 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 155 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 156 | 2% | 95% | |
| 157 | 2% | 94% | |
| 158 | 2% | 92% | |
| 159 | 3% | 90% | |
| 160 | 30% | 87% | Median |
| 161 | 1.5% | 57% | |
| 162 | 1.3% | 55% | |
| 163 | 8% | 54% | |
| 164 | 5% | 46% | |
| 165 | 12% | 41% | |
| 166 | 6% | 29% | |
| 167 | 1.1% | 23% | Last Result |
| 168 | 2% | 22% | |
| 169 | 2% | 20% | |
| 170 | 2% | 18% | |
| 171 | 2% | 16% | |
| 172 | 0.5% | 14% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 14% | |
| 174 | 0.4% | 14% | |
| 175 | 3% | 13% | |
| 176 | 2% | 10% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 178 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 179 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 180 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 181 | 2% | 5% | |
| 182 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 184 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 185 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 186 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 187 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 142 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 144 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 148 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 152 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 153 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 154 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 155 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 156 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 157 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 158 | 3% | 94% | |
| 159 | 1.2% | 90% | |
| 160 | 1.3% | 89% | |
| 161 | 4% | 88% | |
| 162 | 3% | 84% | |
| 163 | 2% | 81% | |
| 164 | 4% | 79% | Median |
| 165 | 14% | 75% | |
| 166 | 2% | 61% | |
| 167 | 1.1% | 59% | |
| 168 | 37% | 58% | |
| 169 | 1.1% | 21% | |
| 170 | 0.2% | 20% | |
| 171 | 0.7% | 20% | |
| 172 | 6% | 19% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 13% | |
| 174 | 0.6% | 13% | |
| 175 | 1.1% | 12% | |
| 176 | 2% | 11% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 178 | 3% | 8% | |
| 179 | 3% | 5% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 181 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 184 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 185 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 145 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 147 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 148 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 150 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 151 | 4% | 97% | |
| 152 | 0.7% | 93% | |
| 153 | 2% | 92% | |
| 154 | 30% | 90% | Median |
| 155 | 3% | 60% | |
| 156 | 9% | 57% | |
| 157 | 4% | 48% | |
| 158 | 3% | 44% | |
| 159 | 11% | 41% | |
| 160 | 0.9% | 30% | |
| 161 | 6% | 29% | |
| 162 | 3% | 23% | |
| 163 | 1.0% | 20% | Last Result |
| 164 | 2% | 19% | |
| 165 | 2% | 17% | |
| 166 | 2% | 15% | |
| 167 | 3% | 13% | |
| 168 | 0.3% | 11% | |
| 169 | 3% | 11% | |
| 170 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 171 | 2% | 7% | |
| 172 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 173 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 174 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 175 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 2% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 178 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 181 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 182 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 143 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 144 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 145 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 146 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 148 | 3% | 96% | |
| 149 | 2% | 93% | |
| 150 | 1.3% | 91% | |
| 151 | 2% | 89% | |
| 152 | 30% | 88% | Median |
| 153 | 4% | 57% | |
| 154 | 10% | 53% | |
| 155 | 1.3% | 44% | |
| 156 | 4% | 43% | |
| 157 | 12% | 39% | |
| 158 | 3% | 27% | |
| 159 | 4% | 24% | |
| 160 | 2% | 20% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 18% | Last Result |
| 162 | 0.8% | 17% | |
| 163 | 2% | 17% | |
| 164 | 0.7% | 15% | |
| 165 | 3% | 14% | |
| 166 | 0.6% | 10% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 168 | 3% | 10% | |
| 169 | 2% | 6% | |
| 170 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 171 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 172 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 174 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 1.3% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 180 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 181 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 134 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 135 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 138 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 141 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 142 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 143 | 3% | 97% | |
| 144 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 145 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 146 | 0.7% | 92% | |
| 147 | 0.7% | 91% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 149 | 3% | 90% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 87% | |
| 151 | 2% | 87% | |
| 152 | 2% | 85% | |
| 153 | 0.4% | 83% | |
| 154 | 2% | 82% | |
| 155 | 15% | 81% | |
| 156 | 6% | 66% | |
| 157 | 8% | 60% | |
| 158 | 3% | 52% | Median |
| 159 | 2% | 49% | |
| 160 | 2% | 47% | |
| 161 | 2% | 45% | |
| 162 | 30% | 44% | |
| 163 | 2% | 14% | |
| 164 | 2% | 12% | |
| 165 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 166 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 167 | 2% | 9% | |
| 168 | 3% | 7% | |
| 169 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 170 | 3% | 4% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 174 | 0.4% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.5% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 129 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 133 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 134 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 137 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 138 | 0.9% | 98.7% | |
| 139 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 140 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 141 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 142 | 4% | 96% | |
| 143 | 0.7% | 92% | |
| 144 | 3% | 91% | |
| 145 | 0.9% | 88% | |
| 146 | 30% | 87% | Median |
| 147 | 4% | 58% | |
| 148 | 1.4% | 53% | |
| 149 | 2% | 52% | |
| 150 | 11% | 50% | |
| 151 | 15% | 40% | |
| 152 | 2% | 25% | |
| 153 | 1.0% | 22% | |
| 154 | 4% | 21% | |
| 155 | 0.4% | 18% | |
| 156 | 0.5% | 17% | Last Result |
| 157 | 2% | 17% | |
| 158 | 0.5% | 15% | |
| 159 | 2% | 14% | |
| 160 | 2% | 12% | |
| 161 | 2% | 11% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 163 | 4% | 9% | |
| 164 | 3% | 5% | |
| 165 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 166 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 167 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 168 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 171 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 174 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 175 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 135 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 136 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 138 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 139 | 3% | 97% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 141 | 1.2% | 93% | |
| 142 | 0.6% | 92% | |
| 143 | 0.9% | 91% | |
| 144 | 3% | 90% | |
| 145 | 2% | 88% | |
| 146 | 0.6% | 86% | |
| 147 | 1.1% | 86% | |
| 148 | 1.0% | 84% | |
| 149 | 3% | 83% | |
| 150 | 17% | 81% | |
| 151 | 0.9% | 64% | |
| 152 | 4% | 63% | |
| 153 | 3% | 59% | Median |
| 154 | 8% | 56% | |
| 155 | 2% | 47% | |
| 156 | 1.1% | 45% | |
| 157 | 30% | 44% | |
| 158 | 1.5% | 14% | |
| 159 | 2% | 12% | |
| 160 | 2% | 11% | |
| 161 | 0.7% | 9% | |
| 162 | 3% | 8% | |
| 163 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 165 | 3% | 4% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 133 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 134 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 135 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 137 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 138 | 3% | 96% | |
| 139 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 140 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 92% | |
| 142 | 0.4% | 91% | |
| 143 | 2% | 91% | |
| 144 | 3% | 89% | |
| 145 | 0.6% | 86% | |
| 146 | 1.3% | 86% | |
| 147 | 0.9% | 84% | |
| 148 | 4% | 83% | |
| 149 | 16% | 79% | |
| 150 | 0.8% | 63% | |
| 151 | 4% | 63% | |
| 152 | 3% | 59% | Median |
| 153 | 9% | 56% | |
| 154 | 2% | 47% | |
| 155 | 0.8% | 45% | |
| 156 | 31% | 44% | |
| 157 | 1.4% | 14% | |
| 158 | 2% | 12% | |
| 159 | 0.5% | 11% | |
| 160 | 2% | 10% | |
| 161 | 0.8% | 8% | |
| 162 | 3% | 7% | |
| 163 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 164 | 3% | 4% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 168 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 170 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 174 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 101 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 102 | 1.1% | 98.5% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 104 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 105 | 2% | 96% | |
| 106 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 107 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 108 | 1.1% | 93% | |
| 109 | 3% | 92% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 89% | |
| 111 | 2% | 88% | |
| 112 | 2% | 87% | |
| 113 | 2% | 85% | |
| 114 | 4% | 83% | |
| 115 | 4% | 79% | |
| 116 | 13% | 74% | |
| 117 | 29% | 61% | Median |
| 118 | 0.3% | 32% | |
| 119 | 3% | 32% | |
| 120 | 1.3% | 28% | |
| 121 | 3% | 27% | |
| 122 | 2% | 24% | |
| 123 | 9% | 23% | |
| 124 | 0.8% | 14% | |
| 125 | 1.0% | 13% | |
| 126 | 4% | 12% | |
| 127 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 128 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 129 | 3% | 6% | |
| 130 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 131 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 132 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 100 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 101 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 103 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 104 | 3% | 97% | |
| 105 | 3% | 94% | |
| 106 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 107 | 3% | 90% | |
| 108 | 4% | 88% | |
| 109 | 0.6% | 84% | |
| 110 | 33% | 83% | Median |
| 111 | 12% | 50% | |
| 112 | 1.1% | 38% | |
| 113 | 2% | 37% | |
| 114 | 1.1% | 35% | |
| 115 | 3% | 33% | |
| 116 | 3% | 31% | |
| 117 | 9% | 28% | |
| 118 | 3% | 18% | |
| 119 | 0.9% | 15% | |
| 120 | 2% | 15% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 13% | |
| 123 | 0.3% | 13% | |
| 124 | 0.6% | 12% | |
| 125 | 8% | 12% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 128 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 129 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 131 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 133 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 134 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 83 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 84 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 86 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 87 | 2% | 97% | |
| 88 | 2% | 95% | |
| 89 | 0.9% | 93% | |
| 90 | 3% | 92% | |
| 91 | 4% | 89% | |
| 92 | 4% | 86% | |
| 93 | 0.3% | 82% | |
| 94 | 0.9% | 82% | |
| 95 | 12% | 81% | |
| 96 | 3% | 68% | |
| 97 | 1.2% | 65% | |
| 98 | 32% | 64% | Median |
| 99 | 2% | 32% | |
| 100 | 2% | 31% | |
| 101 | 0.9% | 28% | |
| 102 | 8% | 28% | |
| 103 | 4% | 19% | |
| 104 | 0.9% | 15% | |
| 105 | 0.5% | 14% | |
| 106 | 4% | 13% | |
| 107 | 2% | 10% | |
| 108 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 109 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 110 | 3% | 6% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Celeste-Tel
- Commissioner(s): eldiario.es
- Fieldwork period: 26 March–3 April 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1100
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.90%