Opinion Poll by electoPanel for electomania.es, 22 February–14 April 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 28.1% | 27.5–28.7% | 27.4–28.9% | 27.2–29.0% | 26.9–29.3% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 20.0% | 19.5–20.5% | 19.3–20.7% | 19.2–20.8% | 19.0–21.0% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 15.3% | 14.8–15.8% | 14.7–15.9% | 14.6–16.0% | 14.4–16.2% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 13.4% | 13.0–13.9% | 12.8–14.0% | 12.7–14.1% | 12.5–14.3% |
| Vox | 0.2% | 11.1% | 10.7–11.5% | 10.6–11.6% | 10.5–11.7% | 10.3–11.9% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.6–3.0% | 2.5–3.1% | 2.5–3.2% | 2.4–3.3% |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.7–2.1% | 1.7–2.1% | 1.6–2.2% | 1.6–2.3% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.2–1.5% | 1.1–1.5% | 1.1–1.6% | 1.0–1.6% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2–1.5% | 1.1–1.5% | 1.1–1.6% | 1.0–1.6% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7–0.9% | 0.7–1.0% | 0.6–1.0% | 0.6–1.1% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2–0.3% | 0.1–0.3% | 0.1–0.3% | 0.1–0.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 127 | 121–128 | 121–129 | 120–130 | 118–132 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 81 | 78–83 | 77–84 | 77–85 | 76–86 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 51 | 50–53 | 49–54 | 49–54 | 45–55 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 36 | 36–37 | 35–37 | 35–38 | 33–40 |
| Vox | 0 | 28 | 26–30 | 26–33 | 26–33 | 25–33 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 9 | 13 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 11–14 | 10–14 |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 8 | 4 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 5 | 6 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 2 | 4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 119 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 120 | 2% | 98% | |
| 121 | 7% | 96% | |
| 122 | 3% | 89% | |
| 123 | 3% | 85% | |
| 124 | 6% | 83% | |
| 125 | 15% | 77% | |
| 126 | 9% | 62% | |
| 127 | 31% | 53% | Median |
| 128 | 16% | 22% | |
| 129 | 4% | 6% | |
| 130 | 2% | 3% | |
| 131 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 132 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 76 | 1.5% | 99.6% | |
| 77 | 4% | 98% | |
| 78 | 7% | 95% | |
| 79 | 4% | 88% | |
| 80 | 12% | 84% | |
| 81 | 38% | 72% | Median |
| 82 | 16% | 34% | |
| 83 | 9% | 19% | |
| 84 | 5% | 10% | |
| 85 | 4% | 5% | |
| 86 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 47 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 48 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 49 | 8% | 98.7% | |
| 50 | 25% | 91% | |
| 51 | 36% | 66% | Median |
| 52 | 19% | 30% | |
| 53 | 4% | 10% | |
| 54 | 4% | 6% | |
| 55 | 2% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 1.5% | 99.4% | |
| 35 | 5% | 98% | |
| 36 | 80% | 93% | Median |
| 37 | 9% | 13% | |
| 38 | 2% | 4% | |
| 39 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 21% | 99.2% | |
| 27 | 17% | 78% | |
| 28 | 40% | 61% | Median |
| 29 | 4% | 21% | |
| 30 | 8% | 18% | |
| 31 | 2% | 10% | |
| 32 | 0.8% | 8% | |
| 33 | 7% | 7% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 10 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 12 | 38% | 97% | |
| 13 | 31% | 59% | Median |
| 14 | 28% | 28% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 82% | 82% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 63% | 100% | Median |
| 5 | 27% | 37% | |
| 6 | 10% | 11% | |
| 7 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 87% | 99.9% | Median |
| 7 | 7% | 13% | |
| 8 | 6% | 6% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 15% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 3 | 26% | 85% | |
| 4 | 57% | 59% | Median |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 66% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 34% | 34% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 254 | 259 | 100% | 253–261 | 253–261 | 252–262 | 251–262 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 213 | 100% | 209–216 | 207–216 | 207–217 | 206–219 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular | 222 | 208 | 100% | 203–209 | 202–210 | 199–211 | 199–212 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euskal Herria Bildu | 180 | 189 | 100% | 185–191 | 184–193 | 183–194 | 183–195 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 173 | 179 | 91% | 176–181 | 173–183 | 173–185 | 173–186 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu | 167 | 179 | 80% | 173–181 | 173–183 | 173–183 | 171–185 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 177 | 69% | 173–180 | 171–180 | 170–181 | 169–182 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 163 | 172 | 3% | 168–174 | 167–175 | 166–176 | 164–178 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 161 | 169 | 0.1% | 165–170 | 163–171 | 163–172 | 161–174 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 163 | 0% | 157–164 | 157–165 | 156–166 | 155–168 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox | 169 | 160 | 0% | 158–164 | 156–165 | 154–165 | 154–166 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 174 | 138 | 0% | 135–141 | 133–142 | 133–144 | 132–145 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 170 | 132 | 0% | 130–135 | 128–136 | 127–138 | 126–139 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 132 | 0% | 129–135 | 127–135 | 127–138 | 126–139 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 127 | 0% | 121–128 | 121–129 | 120–130 | 118–132 |
| Partido Popular – Vox | 137 | 109 | 0% | 106–112 | 105–112 | 104–114 | 103–115 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 81 | 0% | 78–83 | 77–84 | 77–85 | 76–86 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 248 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 249 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 250 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 251 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 252 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 253 | 5% | 95% | |
| 254 | 4% | 90% | Last Result |
| 255 | 8% | 86% | |
| 256 | 7% | 77% | |
| 257 | 3% | 70% | |
| 258 | 9% | 67% | |
| 259 | 36% | 58% | Median |
| 260 | 11% | 22% | |
| 261 | 6% | 10% | |
| 262 | 4% | 4% | |
| 263 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 264 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0% | 100% | |
| 195 | 0% | 100% | |
| 196 | 0% | 100% | |
| 197 | 0% | 100% | |
| 198 | 0% | 100% | |
| 199 | 0% | 100% | |
| 200 | 0% | 100% | |
| 201 | 0% | 100% | |
| 202 | 0% | 100% | |
| 203 | 0% | 100% | |
| 204 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 205 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 206 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 207 | 4% | 98% | |
| 208 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 209 | 5% | 93% | |
| 210 | 8% | 89% | |
| 211 | 11% | 81% | |
| 212 | 4% | 70% | |
| 213 | 18% | 65% | |
| 214 | 24% | 48% | Median |
| 215 | 8% | 24% | |
| 216 | 11% | 16% | |
| 217 | 3% | 5% | |
| 218 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 219 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 221 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 198 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 199 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 200 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 201 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 202 | 4% | 95% | |
| 203 | 4% | 91% | |
| 204 | 5% | 87% | |
| 205 | 2% | 83% | |
| 206 | 18% | 80% | |
| 207 | 7% | 63% | |
| 208 | 36% | 55% | Median |
| 209 | 14% | 20% | |
| 210 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 211 | 4% | 4% | |
| 212 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 214 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 180 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 181 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 183 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 184 | 5% | 96% | |
| 185 | 3% | 91% | |
| 186 | 3% | 88% | |
| 187 | 9% | 85% | |
| 188 | 8% | 76% | |
| 189 | 32% | 69% | |
| 190 | 20% | 37% | Median |
| 191 | 10% | 17% | |
| 192 | 0.9% | 7% | |
| 193 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 194 | 3% | 5% | |
| 195 | 2% | 2% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 170 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 173 | 5% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 174 | 2% | 95% | |
| 175 | 2% | 93% | |
| 176 | 7% | 91% | Majority |
| 177 | 6% | 85% | |
| 178 | 7% | 79% | |
| 179 | 30% | 73% | |
| 180 | 9% | 43% | Median |
| 181 | 25% | 33% | |
| 182 | 2% | 8% | |
| 183 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 184 | 2% | 5% | |
| 185 | 2% | 3% | |
| 186 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 167 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 168 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 169 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 171 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 172 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 173 | 11% | 98% | |
| 174 | 2% | 88% | |
| 175 | 5% | 85% | |
| 176 | 4% | 80% | Majority |
| 177 | 5% | 76% | |
| 178 | 15% | 71% | |
| 179 | 29% | 56% | |
| 180 | 11% | 27% | Median |
| 181 | 10% | 16% | |
| 182 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 183 | 4% | 6% | |
| 184 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 185 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0% | 100% | |
| 166 | 0% | 100% | |
| 167 | 0% | 100% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 169 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 170 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 171 | 4% | 97% | |
| 172 | 0.9% | 93% | |
| 173 | 3% | 92% | |
| 174 | 8% | 89% | |
| 175 | 12% | 81% | |
| 176 | 3% | 69% | Majority |
| 177 | 20% | 66% | |
| 178 | 23% | 46% | Median |
| 179 | 9% | 23% | |
| 180 | 10% | 14% | |
| 181 | 3% | 4% | |
| 182 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 161 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 164 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 165 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 166 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 167 | 6% | 97% | |
| 168 | 7% | 91% | |
| 169 | 5% | 84% | |
| 170 | 6% | 79% | |
| 171 | 15% | 73% | |
| 172 | 17% | 58% | |
| 173 | 25% | 41% | Median |
| 174 | 10% | 17% | |
| 175 | 3% | 6% | |
| 176 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 178 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 161 | 0.4% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 162 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 163 | 5% | 98.7% | |
| 164 | 3% | 94% | |
| 165 | 8% | 91% | |
| 166 | 6% | 83% | |
| 167 | 14% | 77% | |
| 168 | 7% | 63% | |
| 169 | 32% | 56% | Median |
| 170 | 15% | 24% | |
| 171 | 5% | 9% | |
| 172 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 173 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 174 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 175 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 152 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 155 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 156 | 2% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 157 | 8% | 97% | |
| 158 | 2% | 89% | |
| 159 | 6% | 88% | |
| 160 | 6% | 82% | |
| 161 | 14% | 76% | |
| 162 | 8% | 62% | |
| 163 | 32% | 54% | Median |
| 164 | 15% | 22% | |
| 165 | 4% | 7% | |
| 166 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 167 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 168 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 169 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 152 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 154 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 155 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 156 | 2% | 95% | |
| 157 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 158 | 16% | 93% | |
| 159 | 8% | 76% | |
| 160 | 40% | 68% | Median |
| 161 | 8% | 28% | |
| 162 | 7% | 21% | |
| 163 | 2% | 13% | |
| 164 | 4% | 11% | |
| 165 | 5% | 7% | |
| 166 | 2% | 2% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 168 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 129 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 132 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 133 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 134 | 2% | 95% | |
| 135 | 4% | 93% | |
| 136 | 8% | 89% | |
| 137 | 4% | 81% | |
| 138 | 43% | 77% | Median |
| 139 | 11% | 34% | |
| 140 | 8% | 23% | |
| 141 | 5% | 15% | |
| 142 | 5% | 9% | |
| 143 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 144 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 145 | 2% | 2% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 127 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 128 | 4% | 97% | |
| 129 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 130 | 5% | 92% | |
| 131 | 9% | 87% | |
| 132 | 43% | 78% | Median |
| 133 | 7% | 34% | |
| 134 | 13% | 28% | |
| 135 | 8% | 15% | |
| 136 | 3% | 7% | |
| 137 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 138 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 139 | 2% | 2% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 126 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 127 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 128 | 2% | 95% | |
| 129 | 4% | 92% | |
| 130 | 8% | 88% | |
| 131 | 7% | 80% | |
| 132 | 43% | 74% | Median |
| 133 | 10% | 31% | |
| 134 | 9% | 21% | |
| 135 | 7% | 12% | |
| 136 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 137 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 138 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 139 | 2% | 2% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 119 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 120 | 2% | 98% | |
| 121 | 7% | 96% | |
| 122 | 3% | 89% | |
| 123 | 3% | 85% | |
| 124 | 6% | 83% | |
| 125 | 15% | 77% | |
| 126 | 9% | 62% | |
| 127 | 31% | 53% | Median |
| 128 | 16% | 22% | |
| 129 | 4% | 6% | |
| 130 | 2% | 3% | |
| 131 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 132 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 104 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 105 | 3% | 96% | |
| 106 | 11% | 94% | |
| 107 | 7% | 83% | |
| 108 | 2% | 76% | |
| 109 | 35% | 73% | Median |
| 110 | 14% | 38% | |
| 111 | 12% | 24% | |
| 112 | 8% | 12% | |
| 113 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 114 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 115 | 2% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 76 | 1.5% | 99.6% | |
| 77 | 4% | 98% | |
| 78 | 7% | 95% | |
| 79 | 4% | 88% | |
| 80 | 12% | 84% | |
| 81 | 38% | 72% | Median |
| 82 | 16% | 34% | |
| 83 | 9% | 19% | |
| 84 | 5% | 10% | |
| 85 | 4% | 5% | |
| 86 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: electoPanel
- Commissioner(s): electomania.es
- Fieldwork period: 22 February–14 April 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 10000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.76%