Opinion Poll by GAD3 for ABC, 9–15 April 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 31.3% | 30.0–32.7% | 29.6–33.0% | 29.3–33.4% | 28.7–34.0% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 20.9% | 19.8–22.1% | 19.4–22.5% | 19.2–22.7% | 18.6–23.3% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 13.2% | 12.3–14.2% | 12.0–14.5% | 11.8–14.8% | 11.4–15.3% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 12.3% | 11.4–13.3% | 11.1–13.6% | 10.9–13.8% | 10.5–14.3% |
| Vox | 0.2% | 11.8% | 10.9–12.8% | 10.7–13.0% | 10.5–13.3% | 10.0–13.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 137 | 131–143 | 129–145 | 128–147 | 124–150 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 83 | 77–89 | 75–92 | 73–94 | 70–99 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 38 | 32–44 | 30–46 | 27–47 | 23–49 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 32 | 27–36 | 25–37 | 25–38 | 24–40 |
| Vox | 0 | 31 | 28–35 | 27–37 | 26–38 | 24–41 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 126 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 127 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 128 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 129 | 2% | 97% | |
| 130 | 3% | 94% | |
| 131 | 4% | 92% | |
| 132 | 6% | 88% | |
| 133 | 5% | 82% | |
| 134 | 7% | 77% | |
| 135 | 7% | 70% | |
| 136 | 7% | 63% | |
| 137 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 138 | 8% | 48% | |
| 139 | 8% | 40% | |
| 140 | 6% | 32% | |
| 141 | 6% | 25% | |
| 142 | 5% | 19% | |
| 143 | 5% | 15% | |
| 144 | 3% | 10% | |
| 145 | 2% | 6% | |
| 146 | 2% | 4% | |
| 147 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 148 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 72 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 73 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 74 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 75 | 2% | 95% | |
| 76 | 2% | 94% | |
| 77 | 4% | 91% | |
| 78 | 4% | 87% | |
| 79 | 7% | 83% | |
| 80 | 5% | 76% | |
| 81 | 8% | 71% | |
| 82 | 11% | 63% | |
| 83 | 8% | 52% | Median |
| 84 | 8% | 44% | |
| 85 | 7% | 35% | |
| 86 | 7% | 28% | |
| 87 | 4% | 21% | |
| 88 | 5% | 17% | |
| 89 | 3% | 12% | |
| 90 | 2% | 10% | |
| 91 | 2% | 7% | |
| 92 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 93 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 94 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 95 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 96 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 97 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 26 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 29 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 30 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 31 | 2% | 94% | |
| 32 | 3% | 93% | Last Result |
| 33 | 4% | 90% | |
| 34 | 6% | 86% | |
| 35 | 5% | 80% | |
| 36 | 9% | 75% | |
| 37 | 10% | 66% | |
| 38 | 10% | 57% | Median |
| 39 | 9% | 46% | |
| 40 | 10% | 38% | |
| 41 | 7% | 28% | |
| 42 | 6% | 21% | |
| 43 | 4% | 15% | |
| 44 | 4% | 11% | |
| 45 | 2% | 7% | |
| 46 | 2% | 5% | |
| 47 | 2% | 4% | |
| 48 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 4% | 98% | |
| 26 | 3% | 94% | |
| 27 | 3% | 91% | |
| 28 | 5% | 87% | |
| 29 | 5% | 82% | |
| 30 | 8% | 76% | |
| 31 | 10% | 68% | |
| 32 | 10% | 58% | Median |
| 33 | 9% | 48% | |
| 34 | 10% | 39% | |
| 35 | 10% | 29% | |
| 36 | 9% | 19% | |
| 37 | 6% | 9% | |
| 38 | 2% | 3% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 26 | 2% | 98% | |
| 27 | 3% | 96% | |
| 28 | 12% | 93% | |
| 29 | 11% | 82% | |
| 30 | 13% | 71% | |
| 31 | 11% | 57% | Median |
| 32 | 14% | 46% | |
| 33 | 11% | 33% | |
| 34 | 8% | 22% | |
| 35 | 5% | 13% | |
| 36 | 3% | 9% | |
| 37 | 2% | 6% | |
| 38 | 2% | 4% | |
| 39 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 254 | 258 | 100% | 253–264 | 251–265 | 249–266 | 246–269 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular | 222 | 220 | 100% | 214–227 | 212–230 | 210–232 | 207–236 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 207 | 100% | 200–214 | 198–215 | 196–217 | 191–221 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 175 | 48% | 169–182 | 167–184 | 164–186 | 159–189 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 169 | 12% | 162–176 | 160–178 | 158–179 | 155–182 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox | 169 | 152 | 0% | 146–159 | 144–161 | 142–163 | 139–166 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 137 | 0% | 131–143 | 129–145 | 128–147 | 124–150 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 121 | 0% | 114–128 | 112–130 | 110–132 | 106–136 |
| Partido Popular – Vox | 137 | 114 | 0% | 108–121 | 106–123 | 104–126 | 100–130 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 83 | 0% | 77–89 | 75–92 | 73–94 | 70–99 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 243 | 0% | 100% | |
| 244 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 245 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 246 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 247 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 248 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 249 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 250 | 2% | 97% | |
| 251 | 2% | 96% | |
| 252 | 3% | 93% | |
| 253 | 4% | 90% | |
| 254 | 5% | 86% | Last Result |
| 255 | 7% | 81% | |
| 256 | 8% | 74% | |
| 257 | 9% | 66% | |
| 258 | 10% | 57% | Median |
| 259 | 9% | 47% | |
| 260 | 9% | 38% | |
| 261 | 7% | 30% | |
| 262 | 7% | 23% | |
| 263 | 5% | 15% | |
| 264 | 4% | 11% | |
| 265 | 3% | 7% | |
| 266 | 2% | 5% | |
| 267 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 268 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 269 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 270 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 271 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 273 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 203 | 0% | 100% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 206 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 208 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 209 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 210 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 211 | 2% | 97% | |
| 212 | 2% | 95% | |
| 213 | 3% | 93% | |
| 214 | 4% | 90% | |
| 215 | 6% | 86% | |
| 216 | 6% | 81% | |
| 217 | 6% | 74% | |
| 218 | 7% | 68% | |
| 219 | 8% | 61% | |
| 220 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 221 | 8% | 46% | |
| 222 | 7% | 38% | Last Result |
| 223 | 6% | 31% | |
| 224 | 5% | 24% | |
| 225 | 4% | 20% | |
| 226 | 3% | 16% | |
| 227 | 3% | 13% | |
| 228 | 2% | 10% | |
| 229 | 2% | 8% | |
| 230 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 231 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 232 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 233 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 234 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 235 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 236 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 237 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 238 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 240 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 241 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 186 | 0% | 100% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 192 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 193 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 194 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 195 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 196 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 197 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 198 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 199 | 2% | 94% | |
| 200 | 3% | 92% | |
| 201 | 3% | 89% | |
| 202 | 4% | 86% | |
| 203 | 6% | 82% | |
| 204 | 6% | 77% | |
| 205 | 7% | 71% | |
| 206 | 8% | 64% | |
| 207 | 7% | 56% | Median |
| 208 | 7% | 49% | |
| 209 | 7% | 42% | |
| 210 | 6% | 35% | |
| 211 | 7% | 29% | |
| 212 | 7% | 22% | |
| 213 | 4% | 15% | |
| 214 | 3% | 11% | |
| 215 | 3% | 8% | |
| 216 | 2% | 5% | |
| 217 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 218 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 219 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 220 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 221 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 222 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 223 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 224 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 225 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 161 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 163 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 164 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 165 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 166 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 167 | 2% | 95% | |
| 168 | 3% | 93% | |
| 169 | 3% | 90% | |
| 170 | 5% | 87% | |
| 171 | 6% | 82% | |
| 172 | 6% | 76% | |
| 173 | 8% | 70% | |
| 174 | 7% | 63% | |
| 175 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 176 | 8% | 48% | Majority |
| 177 | 7% | 39% | |
| 178 | 6% | 32% | |
| 179 | 6% | 26% | |
| 180 | 4% | 20% | |
| 181 | 4% | 16% | |
| 182 | 3% | 12% | |
| 183 | 3% | 9% | |
| 184 | 2% | 6% | |
| 185 | 2% | 4% | |
| 186 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 187 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 188 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 189 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 190 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 155 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 156 | 0.5% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 157 | 0.8% | 98.7% | |
| 158 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 159 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 160 | 2% | 96% | |
| 161 | 3% | 94% | |
| 162 | 3% | 91% | |
| 163 | 4% | 88% | |
| 164 | 5% | 84% | |
| 165 | 5% | 79% | |
| 166 | 5% | 74% | |
| 167 | 6% | 69% | |
| 168 | 6% | 63% | |
| 169 | 7% | 57% | Median |
| 170 | 7% | 50% | |
| 171 | 7% | 43% | |
| 172 | 7% | 36% | |
| 173 | 6% | 29% | |
| 174 | 7% | 23% | |
| 175 | 5% | 16% | |
| 176 | 4% | 12% | Majority |
| 177 | 3% | 8% | |
| 178 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 179 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 180 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 181 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 182 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 136 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 139 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 140 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 141 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 142 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 143 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 144 | 2% | 96% | |
| 145 | 3% | 94% | |
| 146 | 4% | 91% | |
| 147 | 5% | 87% | |
| 148 | 7% | 83% | |
| 149 | 6% | 75% | |
| 150 | 8% | 69% | |
| 151 | 7% | 61% | |
| 152 | 8% | 55% | Median |
| 153 | 6% | 47% | |
| 154 | 7% | 41% | |
| 155 | 6% | 34% | |
| 156 | 6% | 28% | |
| 157 | 5% | 23% | |
| 158 | 4% | 17% | |
| 159 | 3% | 13% | |
| 160 | 3% | 10% | |
| 161 | 2% | 6% | |
| 162 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 163 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 164 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 165 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 166 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 170 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 126 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 127 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 128 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 129 | 2% | 97% | |
| 130 | 3% | 94% | |
| 131 | 4% | 92% | |
| 132 | 6% | 88% | |
| 133 | 5% | 82% | |
| 134 | 7% | 77% | |
| 135 | 7% | 70% | |
| 136 | 7% | 63% | |
| 137 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 138 | 8% | 48% | |
| 139 | 8% | 40% | |
| 140 | 6% | 32% | |
| 141 | 6% | 25% | |
| 142 | 5% | 19% | |
| 143 | 5% | 15% | |
| 144 | 3% | 10% | |
| 145 | 2% | 6% | |
| 146 | 2% | 4% | |
| 147 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 148 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 107 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 108 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 109 | 0.8% | 98.6% | |
| 110 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 111 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 112 | 2% | 95% | |
| 113 | 2% | 93% | |
| 114 | 3% | 91% | |
| 115 | 5% | 88% | |
| 116 | 5% | 83% | |
| 117 | 6% | 78% | |
| 118 | 5% | 73% | |
| 119 | 6% | 67% | |
| 120 | 6% | 61% | |
| 121 | 7% | 55% | Median |
| 122 | 9% | 48% | |
| 123 | 6% | 39% | |
| 124 | 6% | 33% | |
| 125 | 5% | 26% | |
| 126 | 5% | 21% | |
| 127 | 4% | 16% | |
| 128 | 3% | 12% | |
| 129 | 2% | 9% | |
| 130 | 2% | 6% | |
| 131 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 132 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 133 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 134 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 135 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 101 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 102 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 103 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 104 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 105 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 106 | 2% | 96% | |
| 107 | 3% | 94% | |
| 108 | 3% | 91% | |
| 109 | 5% | 88% | |
| 110 | 7% | 83% | |
| 111 | 8% | 77% | |
| 112 | 7% | 69% | |
| 113 | 6% | 62% | |
| 114 | 7% | 55% | Median |
| 115 | 8% | 48% | |
| 116 | 8% | 40% | |
| 117 | 6% | 32% | |
| 118 | 6% | 26% | |
| 119 | 4% | 20% | |
| 120 | 4% | 15% | |
| 121 | 3% | 12% | |
| 122 | 3% | 9% | |
| 123 | 2% | 6% | |
| 124 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 125 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 126 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 127 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 129 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 72 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 73 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 74 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 75 | 2% | 95% | |
| 76 | 2% | 94% | |
| 77 | 4% | 91% | |
| 78 | 4% | 87% | |
| 79 | 7% | 83% | |
| 80 | 5% | 76% | |
| 81 | 8% | 71% | |
| 82 | 11% | 63% | |
| 83 | 8% | 52% | Median |
| 84 | 8% | 44% | |
| 85 | 7% | 35% | |
| 86 | 7% | 28% | |
| 87 | 4% | 21% | |
| 88 | 5% | 17% | |
| 89 | 3% | 12% | |
| 90 | 2% | 10% | |
| 91 | 2% | 7% | |
| 92 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 93 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 94 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 95 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 96 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 97 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GAD3
- Commissioner(s): ABC
- Fieldwork period: 9–15 April 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 2000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.32%