Opinion Poll by SocioMétrica for El Español, 8–15 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 22.6% 30.2% 28.9–31.6% 28.5–32.0% 28.1–32.4% 27.5–33.1%
Partido Popular 33.0% 19.0% 17.8–20.2% 17.5–20.6% 17.3–20.9% 16.7–21.5%
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 13.1% 15.7% 14.7–16.9% 14.4–17.2% 14.1–17.5% 13.6–18.0%
Unidos Podemos 21.2% 14.1% 13.1–15.2% 12.8–15.5% 12.6–15.8% 12.1–16.3%
Vox 0.2% 11.0% 10.1–12.0% 9.8–12.3% 9.6–12.5% 9.2–13.0%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 2.7% 3.2% 2.7–3.8% 2.6–4.0% 2.5–4.1% 2.3–4.5%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 2.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.6% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.1%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.2% 1.2% 0.9–1.6% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.1%
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal 1.2% 1.1% 0.9–1.5% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.9%
Euskal Herria Bildu 0.8% 0.9% 0.7–1.2% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.4% 0.5–1.6%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario 0.3% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.0–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 85 132 122–137 121–139 119–140 115–144
Partido Popular 137 73 66–80 64–82 63–82 59–84
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 32 51 44–58 44–59 41–60 41–63
Unidos Podemos 71 39 35–44 33–45 32–45 28–48
Vox 0 27 24–33 23–33 21–34 19–36
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 9 14 12–16 11–16 11–16 9–18
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 8 5 4–6 3–6 3–7 1–8
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 5 6 4–8 3–8 3–9 3–9
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Euskal Herria Bildu 2 4 2–6 2–6 2–7 1–7
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2

Partido Socialista Obrero Español

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0.1% 100%  
114 0.2% 99.9%  
115 0.2% 99.7%  
116 0.2% 99.4%  
117 2% 99.3%  
118 0.1% 98%  
119 0.7% 98%  
120 2% 97%  
121 2% 95%  
122 9% 93%  
123 3% 85%  
124 6% 82%  
125 0.8% 76%  
126 0.5% 75%  
127 5% 75%  
128 1.4% 69%  
129 3% 68%  
130 8% 65%  
131 2% 57%  
132 6% 55% Median
133 1.2% 49%  
134 6% 48%  
135 2% 42%  
136 18% 40%  
137 12% 22%  
138 4% 10%  
139 2% 6%  
140 2% 4%  
141 0.3% 2%  
142 0.8% 2%  
143 0.3% 1.1%  
144 0.4% 0.8%  
145 0.1% 0.4%  
146 0% 0.2%  
147 0% 0.2%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.5% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.5%  
61 0.3% 99.3%  
62 0.4% 99.1%  
63 1.5% 98.7%  
64 7% 97%  
65 0.5% 91%  
66 7% 90%  
67 1.3% 83%  
68 4% 82%  
69 14% 78%  
70 2% 64%  
71 9% 62%  
72 1.4% 53%  
73 9% 52% Median
74 5% 42%  
75 16% 37%  
76 6% 22%  
77 3% 16%  
78 1.3% 13%  
79 2% 12%  
80 1.2% 10%  
81 3% 9%  
82 4% 6%  
83 1.3% 2%  
84 0.4% 0.8%  
85 0.2% 0.4%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0% Last Result

Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100% Last Result
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.8%  
39 0.1% 99.8%  
40 0.1% 99.7%  
41 3% 99.6%  
42 0.5% 96%  
43 0.3% 96%  
44 11% 95%  
45 1.1% 84%  
46 0.7% 83%  
47 3% 82%  
48 9% 79%  
49 4% 70%  
50 15% 66%  
51 11% 51% Median
52 8% 40%  
53 3% 32%  
54 9% 29%  
55 1.2% 19%  
56 6% 18%  
57 3% 13%  
58 3% 10%  
59 2% 7%  
60 3% 5%  
61 0.9% 2%  
62 0.5% 1.2%  
63 0.2% 0.6%  
64 0.4% 0.4%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Unidos Podemos

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.6% 100%  
29 0% 99.4%  
30 0.1% 99.3%  
31 0.3% 99.2%  
32 2% 99.0%  
33 4% 97%  
34 2% 94%  
35 5% 91%  
36 11% 87%  
37 15% 76%  
38 8% 61%  
39 10% 53% Median
40 11% 43%  
41 14% 32%  
42 4% 18%  
43 1.2% 14%  
44 5% 13%  
45 7% 9%  
46 0.1% 1.4%  
47 0.1% 1.3%  
48 0.8% 1.2%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.1% 99.9%  
19 1.4% 99.8%  
20 0.4% 98%  
21 0.5% 98%  
22 2% 97%  
23 4% 95%  
24 7% 91%  
25 9% 84%  
26 16% 75%  
27 16% 59% Median
28 22% 43%  
29 3% 22%  
30 2% 19%  
31 1.1% 16%  
32 1.1% 15%  
33 11% 14%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.2% 1.1%  
36 0.7% 0.9%  
37 0.1% 0.3%  
38 0% 0.2%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.7% 100% Last Result
10 0.7% 99.3%  
11 6% 98.6%  
12 6% 93%  
13 12% 87%  
14 38% 74% Median
15 24% 37%  
16 11% 13%  
17 1.3% 2%  
18 0.4% 0.7%  
19 0.1% 0.3%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 0.2% 98%  
3 5% 98%  
4 34% 92%  
5 20% 58% Median
6 34% 38%  
7 3% 4%  
8 1.1% 1.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 6% 99.8%  
4 4% 94%  
5 11% 90% Last Result
6 61% 79% Median
7 7% 17%  
8 6% 10%  
9 4% 5%  
10 0.3% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.0% 1.0%  
2 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 15% 98% Last Result
3 12% 83%  
4 21% 71% Median
5 37% 50%  
6 9% 13%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0.1% 0.3%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100%  
1 46% 50% Last Result, Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 254 254 100% 247–261 247–263 245–264 244–265
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos 188 221 100% 213–228 210–231 209–232 206–235
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular 222 203 100% 197–209 194–212 194–215 191–218
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euskal Herria Bildu 180 200 100% 189–205 187–208 186–209 183–211
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 173 190 96% 180–197 176–198 174–199 172–201
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu 167 189 95% 179–195 176–197 174–198 171–201
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 117 181 78% 172–191 172–192 171–194 168–196
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu 163 181 76% 171–188 169–189 167–190 163–192
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 161 177 53% 166–183 165–185 163–186 159–188
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos 156 171 24% 161–177 159–179 156–181 153–182
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox 169 149 0% 144–160 142–162 140–164 138–166
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 174 128 0% 122–138 121–141 119–145 117–148
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 85 132 0% 122–137 121–139 119–140 115–144
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario 170 123 0% 117–133 116–136 113–139 112–142
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 169 122 0% 117–132 115–135 113–138 111–142
Partido Popular – Vox 137 100 0% 92–107 91–110 88–111 87–114
Partido Popular 137 73 0% 66–80 64–82 63–82 59–84

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
241 0.1% 100%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0.2% 99.9%  
244 0.3% 99.7%  
245 3% 99.4%  
246 1.0% 97%  
247 8% 96%  
248 4% 87%  
249 0.7% 84%  
250 10% 83%  
251 1.0% 73%  
252 3% 72%  
253 16% 68%  
254 8% 53% Last Result
255 5% 45%  
256 7% 39% Median
257 8% 32%  
258 6% 24%  
259 3% 18%  
260 3% 14%  
261 2% 11%  
262 2% 9%  
263 3% 6%  
264 2% 3%  
265 1.0% 1.3%  
266 0.1% 0.3%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0.1% 0.1%  
270 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
188 0% 100% Last Result
189 0% 100%  
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 100%  
192 0% 100%  
193 0% 100%  
194 0% 100%  
195 0% 100%  
196 0% 100%  
197 0% 100%  
198 0% 100%  
199 0% 100%  
200 0% 100%  
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 99.9%  
204 0% 99.9%  
205 0.2% 99.9%  
206 0.3% 99.7%  
207 0.1% 99.4%  
208 0.2% 99.3%  
209 2% 99.0%  
210 3% 97%  
211 2% 94%  
212 0.5% 92%  
213 5% 92%  
214 0.8% 87%  
215 6% 86%  
216 4% 80%  
217 9% 77%  
218 0.8% 67%  
219 7% 66%  
220 1.3% 59%  
221 12% 58%  
222 9% 46% Median
223 3% 37%  
224 8% 35%  
225 8% 27%  
226 2% 19%  
227 1.0% 17%  
228 7% 16%  
229 3% 9%  
230 0.8% 6%  
231 1.4% 6%  
232 2% 4%  
233 0.3% 2%  
234 0.5% 2%  
235 1.2% 2%  
236 0.1% 0.4%  
237 0% 0.4%  
238 0% 0.3%  
239 0.3% 0.3%  
240 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
187 0% 100%  
188 0.1% 99.9%  
189 0.2% 99.9%  
190 0.1% 99.6%  
191 0.4% 99.5%  
192 0.1% 99.1%  
193 0.5% 99.0%  
194 5% 98.5%  
195 1.4% 94%  
196 2% 92%  
197 11% 90%  
198 5% 80%  
199 5% 74%  
200 1.1% 70%  
201 6% 69%  
202 3% 62%  
203 11% 59%  
204 3% 48%  
205 5% 45% Median
206 10% 41%  
207 6% 30%  
208 2% 24%  
209 13% 23%  
210 1.1% 10%  
211 2% 9%  
212 3% 7%  
213 0.5% 4%  
214 1.1% 4%  
215 2% 3%  
216 0.1% 0.7%  
217 0.1% 0.6%  
218 0.2% 0.6%  
219 0.3% 0.4%  
220 0.1% 0.1%  
221 0% 0.1%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euskal Herria Bildu

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
179 0% 100%  
180 0% 99.9% Last Result
181 0.1% 99.9%  
182 0.3% 99.9%  
183 0.3% 99.6%  
184 0.8% 99.3%  
185 1.1% 98.6%  
186 1.4% 98%  
187 2% 96%  
188 0.9% 94%  
189 4% 94%  
190 1.1% 90%  
191 2% 89%  
192 3% 86%  
193 3% 84%  
194 0.9% 80%  
195 3% 79%  
196 7% 77%  
197 12% 70%  
198 3% 58%  
199 2% 55%  
200 5% 54% Median
201 4% 49%  
202 11% 45%  
203 0.9% 34%  
204 8% 33%  
205 18% 25%  
206 0.8% 7%  
207 1.0% 6%  
208 2% 5%  
209 2% 4%  
210 0.7% 1.3%  
211 0.2% 0.6%  
212 0.3% 0.4%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0.1% 0.1%  
215 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
169 0.1% 100%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0.2% 99.9%  
172 0.2% 99.7%  
173 0.2% 99.5% Last Result
174 2% 99.3%  
175 1.2% 97%  
176 2% 96% Majority
177 0.2% 95%  
178 0.6% 94%  
179 0.8% 94%  
180 5% 93%  
181 4% 88%  
182 0.8% 84%  
183 1.3% 83%  
184 2% 82%  
185 4% 80%  
186 9% 76%  
187 8% 67%  
188 3% 59%  
189 6% 56%  
190 4% 50% Median
191 8% 47%  
192 3% 39%  
193 8% 36%  
194 10% 28%  
195 5% 18%  
196 1.1% 13%  
197 7% 12%  
198 2% 5%  
199 0.2% 3%  
200 2% 2%  
201 0.3% 0.6%  
202 0.2% 0.3%  
203 0.1% 0.2%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
167 0% 100% Last Result
168 0% 100%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0.2% 99.9%  
171 0.6% 99.7%  
172 1.3% 99.2%  
173 0.2% 98%  
174 0.7% 98%  
175 2% 97%  
176 0.6% 95% Majority
177 0.6% 95%  
178 1.0% 94%  
179 4% 93%  
180 3% 89%  
181 2% 86%  
182 3% 84%  
183 2% 81%  
184 11% 79%  
185 2% 68%  
186 0.7% 66%  
187 1.2% 65%  
188 11% 64%  
189 4% 53% Median
190 8% 49%  
191 2% 41%  
192 3% 39%  
193 14% 36%  
194 3% 21%  
195 11% 18%  
196 0.9% 7%  
197 2% 6%  
198 2% 4%  
199 0.1% 2%  
200 1.1% 2%  
201 0.4% 0.8%  
202 0.2% 0.4%  
203 0% 0.2%  
204 0.1% 0.2%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100% Last Result
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 100%  
162 0% 100%  
163 0% 100%  
164 0% 100%  
165 0.1% 100%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0.1% 99.9%  
168 0.5% 99.8%  
169 0.1% 99.3%  
170 0.4% 99.2%  
171 2% 98.8%  
172 8% 97%  
173 2% 90%  
174 5% 88%  
175 5% 83%  
176 4% 78% Majority
177 1.5% 75%  
178 5% 73%  
179 4% 68%  
180 12% 64%  
181 2% 52%  
182 1.3% 50%  
183 3% 48% Median
184 4% 46%  
185 8% 42%  
186 8% 34%  
187 7% 27%  
188 3% 20%  
189 3% 17%  
190 0.8% 14%  
191 6% 13%  
192 4% 7%  
193 0.3% 3%  
194 0.6% 3%  
195 0.4% 2%  
196 1.3% 2%  
197 0% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.2%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
164 0.1% 99.5%  
165 0.7% 99.4%  
166 1.1% 98.7%  
167 0.8% 98%  
168 1.2% 97%  
169 2% 96%  
170 2% 94%  
171 3% 92%  
172 4% 90%  
173 3% 86%  
174 2% 82%  
175 4% 80%  
176 6% 76% Majority
177 8% 70%  
178 4% 62%  
179 3% 58%  
180 2% 56%  
181 7% 54% Median
182 3% 47%  
183 4% 44%  
184 8% 39%  
185 12% 31%  
186 0.5% 19%  
187 2% 19%  
188 11% 17%  
189 2% 5%  
190 2% 4%  
191 1.2% 2%  
192 0.2% 0.6%  
193 0.3% 0.4%  
194 0% 0.2%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
155 0.1% 100%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0.2% 99.9%  
159 0.3% 99.8%  
160 0.2% 99.5%  
161 0.6% 99.3% Last Result
162 0.1% 98.7%  
163 1.3% 98.6%  
164 2% 97%  
165 2% 96%  
166 3% 93%  
167 1.4% 90%  
168 2% 89%  
169 2% 87%  
170 4% 85%  
171 4% 81%  
172 14% 77%  
173 0.9% 63%  
174 2% 62%  
175 7% 60%  
176 0.6% 53% Majority
177 7% 52% Median
178 3% 45%  
179 1.0% 43%  
180 17% 42%  
181 0.5% 24%  
182 5% 24%  
183 11% 19%  
184 2% 8%  
185 2% 6%  
186 1.4% 4%  
187 2% 2%  
188 0.5% 0.9%  
189 0.2% 0.4%  
190 0% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0% 100%  
151 0.1% 99.9%  
152 0% 99.8%  
153 0.3% 99.8%  
154 0.2% 99.5%  
155 0.5% 99.3%  
156 2% 98.8% Last Result
157 0.6% 96%  
158 0.4% 96%  
159 2% 95%  
160 3% 93%  
161 2% 90%  
162 2% 88%  
163 1.2% 87%  
164 5% 85%  
165 3% 80%  
166 7% 78%  
167 11% 71%  
168 2% 60%  
169 2% 58%  
170 3% 56%  
171 7% 53% Median
172 3% 46%  
173 2% 43%  
174 16% 41%  
175 1.1% 25%  
176 5% 24% Majority
177 11% 19%  
178 3% 8%  
179 2% 5%  
180 0.7% 3%  
181 0.6% 3%  
182 1.5% 2%  
183 0.1% 0.4%  
184 0.1% 0.3%  
185 0.2% 0.3%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0%  

Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
135 0.1% 100%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0.4% 99.8%  
139 0.2% 99.4%  
140 2% 99.3%  
141 2% 97%  
142 2% 95%  
143 0.8% 94%  
144 4% 93%  
145 16% 89%  
146 6% 73%  
147 8% 67%  
148 6% 58%  
149 3% 52%  
150 4% 49%  
151 1.1% 45% Median
152 13% 44%  
153 6% 30%  
154 1.1% 24%  
155 4% 23%  
156 1.2% 19%  
157 4% 18%  
158 0.9% 14%  
159 2% 13%  
160 2% 11%  
161 3% 9%  
162 0.9% 6%  
163 2% 5%  
164 1.0% 3%  
165 1.1% 2%  
166 0.2% 0.7%  
167 0.1% 0.5%  
168 0.2% 0.3%  
169 0% 0.1% Last Result
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0%  

Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.8% 99.8%  
118 0.5% 99.0%  
119 2% 98%  
120 2% 97%  
121 2% 95%  
122 4% 93%  
123 15% 89%  
124 1.5% 74%  
125 2% 72%  
126 13% 71%  
127 5% 57%  
128 8% 53%  
129 5% 45%  
130 12% 40% Median
131 0.6% 28%  
132 0.5% 28%  
133 1.5% 27%  
134 7% 26%  
135 3% 19%  
136 1.5% 16%  
137 4% 15%  
138 2% 10%  
139 0.6% 8%  
140 0.2% 8%  
141 2% 7%  
142 1.1% 5%  
143 0.3% 4%  
144 0.2% 3%  
145 1.3% 3%  
146 0.3% 2%  
147 0.9% 2%  
148 0.3% 0.8%  
149 0.4% 0.4%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista Obrero Español

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0.1% 100%  
114 0.2% 99.9%  
115 0.2% 99.7%  
116 0.2% 99.4%  
117 2% 99.3%  
118 0.1% 98%  
119 0.7% 98%  
120 2% 97%  
121 2% 95%  
122 9% 93%  
123 3% 85%  
124 6% 82%  
125 0.8% 76%  
126 0.5% 75%  
127 5% 75%  
128 1.4% 69%  
129 3% 68%  
130 8% 65%  
131 2% 57%  
132 6% 55% Median
133 1.2% 49%  
134 6% 48%  
135 2% 42%  
136 18% 40%  
137 12% 22%  
138 4% 10%  
139 2% 6%  
140 2% 4%  
141 0.3% 2%  
142 0.8% 2%  
143 0.3% 1.1%  
144 0.4% 0.8%  
145 0.1% 0.4%  
146 0% 0.2%  
147 0% 0.2%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0%  

Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.8%  
112 2% 99.8%  
113 0.5% 98%  
114 0.2% 97%  
115 2% 97%  
116 2% 95%  
117 17% 93%  
118 2% 77%  
119 2% 74%  
120 10% 72%  
121 7% 62%  
122 4% 55%  
123 8% 52%  
124 7% 43%  
125 0.7% 37% Median
126 9% 36%  
127 5% 28%  
128 3% 23%  
129 2% 20%  
130 3% 18%  
131 3% 15%  
132 2% 12%  
133 0.8% 10%  
134 1.4% 10%  
135 3% 8%  
136 1.4% 6%  
137 0.6% 4%  
138 1.1% 4%  
139 0.3% 3%  
140 1.1% 2%  
141 0.4% 1.1%  
142 0.6% 0.8%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 2% 99.8%  
112 0.3% 98%  
113 2% 98%  
114 0.4% 96%  
115 0.8% 95%  
116 4% 94%  
117 14% 90%  
118 2% 76%  
119 3% 73%  
120 15% 71%  
121 1.4% 56%  
122 9% 54%  
123 5% 46%  
124 4% 41% Median
125 8% 37%  
126 5% 28%  
127 1.2% 24%  
128 4% 23%  
129 2% 18%  
130 1.2% 16%  
131 3% 15%  
132 2% 12%  
133 1.2% 9%  
134 1.3% 8%  
135 3% 7%  
136 0.3% 4%  
137 0.4% 4%  
138 1.2% 4%  
139 1.2% 2%  
140 0.3% 1.2%  
141 0.1% 0.8%  
142 0.6% 0.8%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0.1% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Popular – Vox

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 2% 99.9%  
88 1.2% 98%  
89 1.3% 97%  
90 0.5% 96%  
91 0.7% 95%  
92 9% 95%  
93 0.6% 86%  
94 2% 85%  
95 6% 84%  
96 6% 78%  
97 12% 72%  
98 4% 59%  
99 4% 55%  
100 5% 52% Median
101 10% 47%  
102 12% 37%  
103 7% 25%  
104 0.6% 18%  
105 2% 18%  
106 3% 15%  
107 3% 13%  
108 2% 10%  
109 2% 8%  
110 3% 6%  
111 2% 3%  
112 0.2% 1.1%  
113 0.1% 0.9%  
114 0.3% 0.8%  
115 0.3% 0.5%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0% Last Result

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.5% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.5%  
61 0.3% 99.3%  
62 0.4% 99.1%  
63 1.5% 98.7%  
64 7% 97%  
65 0.5% 91%  
66 7% 90%  
67 1.3% 83%  
68 4% 82%  
69 14% 78%  
70 2% 64%  
71 9% 62%  
72 1.4% 53%  
73 9% 52% Median
74 5% 42%  
75 16% 37%  
76 6% 22%  
77 3% 16%  
78 1.3% 13%  
79 2% 12%  
80 1.2% 10%  
81 3% 9%  
82 4% 6%  
83 1.3% 2%  
84 0.4% 0.8%  
85 0.2% 0.4%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations