Opinion Poll by Sigma Dos for El Mundo, 3–17 April 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 30.3% | 29.6–31.0% | 29.5–31.2% | 29.3–31.3% | 29.0–31.6% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 20.1% | 19.5–20.7% | 19.4–20.9% | 19.2–21.0% | 19.0–21.3% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 15.0% | 14.5–15.5% | 14.3–15.7% | 14.2–15.8% | 14.0–16.1% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 13.2% | 12.7–13.7% | 12.6–13.8% | 12.5–14.0% | 12.2–14.2% |
| Vox | 0.2% | 10.2% | 9.8–10.7% | 9.6–10.8% | 9.5–10.9% | 9.3–11.1% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.5–4.1% | 3.5–4.2% | 3.4–4.3% | 3.3–4.4% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.1–1.5% | 1.1–1.5% | 1.1–1.6% | 1.0–1.7% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1–1.5% | 1.1–1.5% | 1.1–1.6% | 1.0–1.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 132 | 128–136 | 127–137 | 126–138 | 125–139 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 79 | 74–83 | 73–84 | 72–85 | 71–85 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 49 | 46–51 | 45–51 | 44–52 | 42–52 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 36 | 33–37 | 33–37 | 32–37 | 32–39 |
| Vox | 0 | 25 | 23–27 | 23–27 | 22–27 | 21–28 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 9 | 15 | 15–16 | 15–17 | 14–17 | 14–19 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 8 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 125 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 126 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 127 | 3% | 97% | |
| 128 | 5% | 93% | |
| 129 | 4% | 88% | |
| 130 | 6% | 84% | |
| 131 | 15% | 78% | |
| 132 | 24% | 63% | Median |
| 133 | 6% | 39% | |
| 134 | 8% | 32% | |
| 135 | 11% | 24% | |
| 136 | 5% | 13% | |
| 137 | 4% | 7% | |
| 138 | 2% | 4% | |
| 139 | 2% | 2% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 73 | 4% | 96% | |
| 74 | 3% | 91% | |
| 75 | 4% | 88% | |
| 76 | 6% | 84% | |
| 77 | 9% | 78% | |
| 78 | 13% | 70% | |
| 79 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 80 | 13% | 44% | |
| 81 | 11% | 31% | |
| 82 | 8% | 20% | |
| 83 | 5% | 12% | |
| 84 | 5% | 7% | |
| 85 | 2% | 3% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 43 | 1.1% | 98.8% | |
| 44 | 3% | 98% | |
| 45 | 2% | 95% | |
| 46 | 6% | 93% | |
| 47 | 11% | 87% | |
| 48 | 19% | 75% | |
| 49 | 26% | 57% | Median |
| 50 | 18% | 31% | |
| 51 | 8% | 13% | |
| 52 | 5% | 5% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 33 | 9% | 97% | |
| 34 | 16% | 88% | |
| 35 | 21% | 72% | |
| 36 | 39% | 51% | Median |
| 37 | 10% | 12% | |
| 38 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 23 | 12% | 97% | |
| 24 | 20% | 85% | |
| 25 | 18% | 65% | Median |
| 26 | 21% | 47% | |
| 27 | 24% | 26% | |
| 28 | 2% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 3% | 100% | |
| 15 | 59% | 97% | Median |
| 16 | 30% | 38% | |
| 17 | 6% | 8% | |
| 18 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 44% | 96% | |
| 5 | 46% | 51% | Median |
| 6 | 5% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 6 | 92% | 99.8% | Median |
| 7 | 2% | 8% | |
| 8 | 5% | 5% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 254 | 259 | 100% | 257–262 | 257–263 | 256–264 | 255–265 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 216 | 100% | 212–220 | 210–221 | 210–223 | 209–224 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular | 222 | 211 | 100% | 208–214 | 207–215 | 207–217 | 205–219 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 173 | 187 | 100% | 183–191 | 182–193 | 181–194 | 180–195 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 181 | 96% | 177–185 | 176–186 | 175–187 | 173–189 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 161 | 173 | 27% | 169–178 | 168–179 | 167–180 | 165–181 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 167 | 0.4% | 163–172 | 162–173 | 161–174 | 159–175 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox | 169 | 153 | 0% | 149–157 | 147–158 | 146–159 | 144–160 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 174 | 133 | 0% | 129–138 | 128–139 | 127–140 | 125–142 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 132 | 0% | 128–136 | 127–137 | 126–138 | 125–139 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 127 | 0% | 123–132 | 122–133 | 121–134 | 119–136 |
| Partido Popular – Vox | 137 | 104 | 0% | 100–108 | 98–109 | 97–110 | 96–111 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 79 | 0% | 74–83 | 73–84 | 72–85 | 71–85 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 253 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 254 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 255 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 256 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 257 | 9% | 96% | |
| 258 | 21% | 87% | |
| 259 | 19% | 65% | |
| 260 | 17% | 47% | Median |
| 261 | 15% | 30% | |
| 262 | 6% | 15% | |
| 263 | 4% | 9% | |
| 264 | 3% | 4% | |
| 265 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 266 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 267 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 268 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0% | 100% | |
| 195 | 0% | 100% | |
| 196 | 0% | 100% | |
| 197 | 0% | 100% | |
| 198 | 0% | 100% | |
| 199 | 0% | 100% | |
| 200 | 0% | 100% | |
| 201 | 0% | 100% | |
| 202 | 0% | 100% | |
| 203 | 0% | 100% | |
| 204 | 0% | 100% | |
| 205 | 0% | 100% | |
| 206 | 0% | 100% | |
| 207 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 208 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 209 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 210 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 211 | 4% | 95% | |
| 212 | 3% | 91% | |
| 213 | 6% | 87% | |
| 214 | 12% | 82% | |
| 215 | 14% | 70% | |
| 216 | 18% | 56% | |
| 217 | 10% | 38% | Median |
| 218 | 5% | 28% | |
| 219 | 10% | 22% | |
| 220 | 6% | 12% | |
| 221 | 2% | 7% | |
| 222 | 2% | 5% | |
| 223 | 2% | 3% | |
| 224 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 225 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 227 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 204 | 0% | 100% | |
| 205 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 206 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 207 | 3% | 98% | |
| 208 | 7% | 95% | |
| 209 | 16% | 88% | |
| 210 | 16% | 72% | |
| 211 | 16% | 55% | Median |
| 212 | 17% | 40% | |
| 213 | 9% | 22% | |
| 214 | 5% | 13% | |
| 215 | 3% | 8% | |
| 216 | 2% | 5% | |
| 217 | 2% | 3% | |
| 218 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 219 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 173 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 174 | 0% | 100% | |
| 175 | 0% | 100% | |
| 176 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 100% | |
| 178 | 0% | 100% | |
| 179 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 180 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 181 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 182 | 2% | 96% | |
| 183 | 5% | 93% | |
| 184 | 7% | 88% | |
| 185 | 7% | 81% | |
| 186 | 9% | 74% | |
| 187 | 19% | 65% | |
| 188 | 9% | 47% | Median |
| 189 | 13% | 37% | |
| 190 | 9% | 25% | |
| 191 | 7% | 15% | |
| 192 | 3% | 9% | |
| 193 | 2% | 5% | |
| 194 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 195 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0% | 100% | |
| 166 | 0% | 100% | |
| 167 | 0% | 100% | |
| 168 | 0% | 100% | |
| 169 | 0% | 100% | |
| 170 | 0% | 100% | |
| 171 | 0% | 100% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 174 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 175 | 2% | 98% | |
| 176 | 4% | 96% | Majority |
| 177 | 6% | 92% | |
| 178 | 6% | 86% | |
| 179 | 15% | 80% | |
| 180 | 14% | 65% | |
| 181 | 15% | 51% | Median |
| 182 | 8% | 36% | |
| 183 | 13% | 28% | |
| 184 | 4% | 16% | |
| 185 | 4% | 11% | |
| 186 | 2% | 7% | |
| 187 | 3% | 5% | |
| 188 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 189 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 161 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 167 | 2% | 98% | |
| 168 | 4% | 96% | |
| 169 | 4% | 92% | |
| 170 | 4% | 88% | |
| 171 | 7% | 83% | |
| 172 | 13% | 76% | |
| 173 | 14% | 63% | |
| 174 | 11% | 49% | Median |
| 175 | 11% | 38% | |
| 176 | 8% | 27% | Majority |
| 177 | 8% | 20% | |
| 178 | 5% | 11% | |
| 179 | 2% | 6% | |
| 180 | 2% | 4% | |
| 181 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 182 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 156 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 157 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 159 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 161 | 2% | 98% | |
| 162 | 4% | 96% | |
| 163 | 4% | 92% | |
| 164 | 6% | 87% | |
| 165 | 8% | 82% | |
| 166 | 13% | 74% | |
| 167 | 14% | 62% | |
| 168 | 11% | 48% | Median |
| 169 | 10% | 37% | |
| 170 | 7% | 26% | |
| 171 | 8% | 19% | |
| 172 | 5% | 11% | |
| 173 | 2% | 6% | |
| 174 | 2% | 3% | |
| 175 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 143 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 146 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 147 | 2% | 96% | |
| 148 | 4% | 94% | |
| 149 | 6% | 91% | |
| 150 | 12% | 85% | |
| 151 | 11% | 73% | |
| 152 | 10% | 62% | |
| 153 | 19% | 53% | Median |
| 154 | 8% | 33% | |
| 155 | 8% | 25% | |
| 156 | 6% | 17% | |
| 157 | 5% | 11% | |
| 158 | 3% | 7% | |
| 159 | 3% | 4% | |
| 160 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 126 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 127 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 128 | 4% | 97% | |
| 129 | 7% | 93% | |
| 130 | 4% | 86% | |
| 131 | 15% | 81% | |
| 132 | 8% | 66% | |
| 133 | 13% | 58% | |
| 134 | 6% | 45% | Median |
| 135 | 11% | 39% | |
| 136 | 6% | 27% | |
| 137 | 5% | 22% | |
| 138 | 9% | 17% | |
| 139 | 4% | 8% | |
| 140 | 2% | 4% | |
| 141 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 142 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 125 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 126 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 127 | 3% | 97% | |
| 128 | 5% | 93% | |
| 129 | 4% | 88% | |
| 130 | 6% | 84% | |
| 131 | 15% | 78% | |
| 132 | 24% | 63% | Median |
| 133 | 6% | 39% | |
| 134 | 8% | 32% | |
| 135 | 11% | 24% | |
| 136 | 5% | 13% | |
| 137 | 4% | 7% | |
| 138 | 2% | 4% | |
| 139 | 2% | 2% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 118 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 120 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 121 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 122 | 4% | 97% | |
| 123 | 8% | 93% | |
| 124 | 4% | 85% | |
| 125 | 15% | 81% | |
| 126 | 8% | 66% | |
| 127 | 14% | 57% | |
| 128 | 6% | 44% | Median |
| 129 | 12% | 37% | |
| 130 | 5% | 26% | |
| 131 | 5% | 20% | |
| 132 | 8% | 15% | |
| 133 | 4% | 7% | |
| 134 | 2% | 3% | |
| 135 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 136 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 97 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 98 | 2% | 97% | |
| 99 | 3% | 94% | |
| 100 | 6% | 92% | |
| 101 | 4% | 86% | |
| 102 | 7% | 82% | |
| 103 | 12% | 75% | |
| 104 | 24% | 63% | Median |
| 105 | 8% | 39% | |
| 106 | 12% | 31% | |
| 107 | 7% | 19% | |
| 108 | 4% | 12% | |
| 109 | 3% | 7% | |
| 110 | 3% | 4% | |
| 111 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 73 | 4% | 96% | |
| 74 | 3% | 91% | |
| 75 | 4% | 88% | |
| 76 | 6% | 84% | |
| 77 | 9% | 78% | |
| 78 | 13% | 70% | |
| 79 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 80 | 13% | 44% | |
| 81 | 11% | 31% | |
| 82 | 8% | 20% | |
| 83 | 5% | 12% | |
| 84 | 5% | 7% | |
| 85 | 2% | 3% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Sigma Dos
- Commissioner(s): El Mundo
- Fieldwork period: 3–17 April 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 8000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.49%