Opinion Poll by 40dB for El País, 15–18 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 22.6% 28.8% 27.5–30.1% 27.2–30.5% 26.9–30.8% 26.2–31.5%
Partido Popular 33.0% 17.8% 16.7–18.9% 16.4–19.3% 16.2–19.5% 15.7–20.1%
Unidos Podemos 21.2% 14.1% 13.1–15.2% 12.9–15.4% 12.6–15.7% 12.2–16.2%
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 13.1% 14.1% 13.1–15.2% 12.9–15.4% 12.6–15.7% 12.2–16.2%
Vox 0.2% 12.5% 11.6–13.5% 11.3–13.8% 11.1–14.0% 10.7–14.5%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 2.7% 3.3% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.2% 2.4–4.5%
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal 1.2% 2.8% 2.4–3.3% 2.3–3.5% 2.2–3.6% 2.0–3.9%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 2.0% 1.9% 1.6–2.4% 1.5–2.5% 1.4–2.6% 1.2–2.8%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.2% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
Euskal Herria Bildu 0.8% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario 0.3% 0.4% 0.3–0.7% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 85 127 121–134 119–135 117–137 115–139
Partido Popular 137 71 65–75 64–76 64–76 61–79
Unidos Podemos 71 37 35–44 35–45 34–46 34–48
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 32 45 38–49 38–50 37–51 33–55
Vox 0 39 31–43 29–44 28–45 28–47
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 9 13 12–15 12–16 11–16 9–16
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–3
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 8 8 6–9 6–9 6–9 4–10
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 5 5 3–6 3–6 3–7 2–8
Euskal Herria Bildu 2 5 4–6 2–7 2–7 2–7
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario 1 2 1–2 1–2 0–3 0–3

Partido Socialista Obrero Español

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0.1% 100%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0% 99.8%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0.9% 99.8%  
116 0.7% 98.8%  
117 0.9% 98%  
118 1.1% 97%  
119 3% 96%  
120 1.4% 93%  
121 24% 92%  
122 6% 68%  
123 1.2% 62%  
124 0.9% 61%  
125 7% 60%  
126 1.2% 53%  
127 2% 52% Median
128 23% 49%  
129 2% 26%  
130 3% 24%  
131 4% 22%  
132 3% 18%  
133 1.0% 15%  
134 7% 14%  
135 4% 7%  
136 0.4% 3%  
137 0.7% 3%  
138 1.2% 2%  
139 0.3% 0.6%  
140 0.1% 0.3%  
141 0% 0.2%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0.1% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.7%  
61 0.4% 99.6%  
62 0.2% 99.2%  
63 0.2% 99.0%  
64 7% 98.8%  
65 6% 91%  
66 3% 85%  
67 2% 82%  
68 18% 80%  
69 2% 62%  
70 6% 61%  
71 23% 55% Median
72 3% 32%  
73 5% 29%  
74 13% 24%  
75 4% 11%  
76 4% 6%  
77 0.5% 2%  
78 0.5% 2%  
79 0.7% 1.1%  
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0% Last Result

Unidos Podemos

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.8%  
32 0.1% 99.8%  
33 0.1% 99.8%  
34 3% 99.6%  
35 7% 96%  
36 8% 89%  
37 51% 81% Median
38 9% 30%  
39 3% 21%  
40 0.7% 18%  
41 0.2% 18%  
42 0.5% 17%  
43 2% 17%  
44 8% 14%  
45 2% 6%  
46 2% 4%  
47 1.1% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.7%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
33 0.4% 99.6%  
34 0.2% 99.2%  
35 0.5% 99.0%  
36 0.2% 98%  
37 2% 98%  
38 8% 96%  
39 0.6% 88%  
40 4% 87%  
41 1.2% 84%  
42 0.5% 82%  
43 2% 82%  
44 12% 80%  
45 21% 68% Median
46 3% 47%  
47 29% 44%  
48 4% 16%  
49 3% 12%  
50 6% 9%  
51 0.4% 3%  
52 0.9% 2%  
53 0.8% 1.4%  
54 0.1% 0.6%  
55 0.2% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.3% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.6%  
29 3% 97%  
30 2% 94%  
31 4% 93%  
32 2% 89%  
33 5% 87%  
34 8% 82%  
35 7% 73%  
36 2% 66%  
37 0.7% 64%  
38 4% 64%  
39 24% 60% Median
40 2% 36%  
41 19% 34%  
42 2% 15%  
43 7% 12%  
44 2% 5%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.1% 1.0%  
47 0.8% 1.0%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.5% 100% Last Result
10 0.4% 99.5%  
11 3% 99.1%  
12 36% 96%  
13 23% 61% Median
14 19% 38%  
15 12% 19%  
16 6% 6%  
17 0.3% 0.5%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 95% 99.7% Median
2 3% 4%  
3 0.9% 0.9%  
4 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.6% 100%  
5 2% 99.3%  
6 26% 98%  
7 4% 72%  
8 58% 68% Last Result, Median
9 9% 10%  
10 1.3% 1.5%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 1.0% 100%  
3 37% 99.0%  
4 3% 62%  
5 16% 60% Last Result, Median
6 40% 44%  
7 3% 4%  
8 0.8% 0.9%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 5% 99.9% Last Result
3 4% 95%  
4 33% 91%  
5 20% 57% Median
6 32% 37%  
7 5% 5%  
8 0.2% 0.3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 45% 97% Last Result
2 50% 52% Median
3 2% 3%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 254 241 100% 236–249 234–252 231–255 229–255
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos 188 209 100% 202–217 200–218 200–223 198–225
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euskal Herria Bildu – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 180 195 100% 188–203 188–206 187–208 184–210
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular 222 196 100% 191–204 189–208 187–208 185–211
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 173 185 98% 179–194 178–196 176–199 172–201
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu 167 181 94% 176–190 174–193 173–196 171–200
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euskal Herria Bildu – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 163 175 33% 167–181 166–185 164–188 163–191
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 161 170 17% 161–177 161–180 159–183 156–186
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 117 171 14% 166–178 163–182 163–182 160–185
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos 156 165 4% 158–173 156–175 154–180 152–181
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox 169 152 0% 145–159 142–160 140–161 137–164
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 85 127 0% 121–134 119–135 117–137 115–139
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 174 119 0% 113–128 112–130 108–131 107–134
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario 170 115 0% 109–123 108–125 106–127 104–129
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 169 114 0% 108–123 107–124 104–125 102–128
Partido Popular – Vox 137 108 0% 101–113 98–117 97–117 93–118
Partido Popular 137 71 0% 65–75 64–76 64–76 61–79

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
225 0.1% 100%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0.4% 99.8%  
230 0.2% 99.4%  
231 2% 99.3%  
232 0.2% 97%  
233 0.2% 97%  
234 2% 97%  
235 2% 95%  
236 9% 93%  
237 7% 84%  
238 2% 78%  
239 20% 75%  
240 3% 55%  
241 18% 53%  
242 2% 35%  
243 2% 33% Median
244 7% 31%  
245 7% 25%  
246 4% 18%  
247 2% 14%  
248 2% 12%  
249 0.9% 10%  
250 0.9% 9%  
251 3% 8%  
252 2% 5%  
253 0% 3%  
254 0% 3% Last Result
255 3% 3%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
188 0% 100% Last Result
189 0% 100%  
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 100%  
192 0% 100%  
193 0% 100%  
194 0% 100%  
195 0% 100%  
196 0.2% 99.9%  
197 0% 99.7%  
198 0.5% 99.7%  
199 0.3% 99.2%  
200 7% 98.9%  
201 2% 92%  
202 0.9% 90%  
203 1.2% 89%  
204 3% 88%  
205 18% 85%  
206 5% 67%  
207 2% 62%  
208 2% 59%  
209 9% 58% Median
210 19% 49%  
211 4% 31%  
212 3% 27%  
213 1.4% 24%  
214 0.7% 22%  
215 3% 22%  
216 8% 19%  
217 1.1% 11%  
218 5% 9%  
219 0.3% 4%  
220 0.4% 4%  
221 0.3% 3%  
222 0.1% 3%  
223 2% 3%  
224 0.1% 1.3%  
225 0.9% 1.2%  
226 0.2% 0.4%  
227 0.1% 0.2%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euskal Herria Bildu – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
180 0% 100% Last Result
181 0% 100%  
182 0% 100%  
183 0.1% 99.9%  
184 1.5% 99.9%  
185 0.2% 98%  
186 0.6% 98%  
187 0.3% 98%  
188 24% 97%  
189 1.2% 73%  
190 6% 72%  
191 2% 66%  
192 2% 64%  
193 10% 62%  
194 0.9% 52%  
195 17% 51% Median
196 3% 34%  
197 2% 31%  
198 0.9% 29%  
199 5% 28%  
200 1.4% 23%  
201 8% 21%  
202 3% 14%  
203 3% 10%  
204 1.1% 7%  
205 0.7% 6%  
206 0.5% 5%  
207 2% 5%  
208 2% 3%  
209 0.1% 0.8%  
210 0.3% 0.7%  
211 0% 0.4%  
212 0.3% 0.4%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
180 0% 100%  
181 0.1% 99.9%  
182 0.1% 99.9%  
183 0.1% 99.8%  
184 0% 99.7%  
185 0.2% 99.7%  
186 0.3% 99.4%  
187 2% 99.2%  
188 2% 97%  
189 1.3% 96%  
190 0.5% 94%  
191 5% 94%  
192 23% 89%  
193 0.6% 66%  
194 3% 65%  
195 7% 63%  
196 19% 56%  
197 5% 36%  
198 2% 31% Median
199 9% 29%  
200 0.7% 20%  
201 3% 19%  
202 2% 16%  
203 0.3% 14%  
204 4% 14%  
205 1.1% 10%  
206 0.5% 9%  
207 3% 8%  
208 4% 5%  
209 0.7% 2%  
210 0.3% 0.9%  
211 0.5% 0.7%  
212 0.1% 0.2%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0.1%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
172 0.8% 100%  
173 0% 99.2% Last Result
174 0.1% 99.2%  
175 0.9% 99.0%  
176 2% 98% Majority
177 0.8% 97%  
178 3% 96%  
179 22% 93%  
180 6% 71%  
181 2% 65%  
182 7% 63%  
183 1.1% 56%  
184 0.6% 55%  
185 19% 54% Median
186 2% 36%  
187 5% 34%  
188 0.7% 28%  
189 0.8% 28%  
190 3% 27%  
191 4% 24%  
192 8% 20%  
193 2% 12%  
194 0.6% 10%  
195 3% 9%  
196 2% 7%  
197 1.0% 5%  
198 0.1% 4%  
199 2% 3%  
200 1.0% 2%  
201 0.2% 0.6%  
202 0.3% 0.4%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
167 0% 100% Last Result
168 0% 100%  
169 0.1% 99.9%  
170 0.1% 99.9%  
171 0.8% 99.8%  
172 0.9% 99.0%  
173 2% 98%  
174 1.4% 96%  
175 0.9% 94%  
176 5% 94% Majority
177 17% 88%  
178 6% 71%  
179 2% 65%  
180 1.3% 63%  
181 17% 62%  
182 7% 44% Median
183 3% 37%  
184 4% 34%  
185 1.3% 30%  
186 1.3% 29%  
187 0.7% 27%  
188 11% 27%  
189 3% 15%  
190 3% 13%  
191 3% 10%  
192 0.9% 7%  
193 1.3% 6%  
194 0.3% 5%  
195 0.9% 5%  
196 2% 4%  
197 0.3% 2%  
198 1.0% 2%  
199 0% 0.7%  
200 0.2% 0.6%  
201 0.1% 0.4%  
202 0.3% 0.3%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euskal Herria Bildu – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0.1% 99.9%  
163 1.3% 99.8% Last Result
164 3% 98%  
165 0.7% 96%  
166 0.5% 95%  
167 20% 95%  
168 2% 74%  
169 1.5% 72%  
170 8% 71%  
171 3% 63%  
172 0.6% 59%  
173 7% 59%  
174 1.1% 52% Median
175 18% 51%  
176 2% 33% Majority
177 1.4% 30%  
178 2% 29%  
179 7% 27%  
180 3% 19%  
181 6% 16%  
182 3% 10%  
183 0.4% 6%  
184 0.6% 6%  
185 1.4% 5%  
186 0.3% 4%  
187 0.4% 4%  
188 2% 3%  
189 0.9% 2%  
190 0.2% 0.7%  
191 0.1% 0.5%  
192 0.3% 0.4%  
193 0.1% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
155 0% 100%  
156 0.6% 99.9%  
157 0.1% 99.4%  
158 1.1% 99.3%  
159 0.9% 98%  
160 2% 97%  
161 18% 96% Last Result
162 5% 78%  
163 0.6% 73%  
164 2% 73%  
165 7% 71%  
166 2% 63%  
167 7% 61%  
168 3% 55%  
169 1.1% 52% Median
170 1.2% 51%  
171 17% 49%  
172 3% 32%  
173 4% 29%  
174 5% 25%  
175 3% 20%  
176 1.2% 17% Majority
177 6% 16%  
178 3% 10%  
179 0.2% 7%  
180 3% 7%  
181 0.3% 4%  
182 0.4% 4%  
183 2% 3%  
184 1.0% 2%  
185 0% 0.7%  
186 0.4% 0.6%  
187 0.2% 0.3%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100% Last Result
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0.1% 99.9%  
159 0.3% 99.8%  
160 0.2% 99.5%  
161 0.2% 99.3%  
162 0.2% 99.1%  
163 7% 98.9%  
164 0.5% 92%  
165 0.7% 91%  
166 4% 90%  
167 3% 86%  
168 22% 83%  
169 5% 61%  
170 2% 55%  
171 5% 53%  
172 8% 48% Median
173 18% 39%  
174 2% 21%  
175 5% 19%  
176 0.9% 14% Majority
177 2% 13%  
178 1.0% 11%  
179 0.6% 10%  
180 0.4% 9%  
181 3% 9%  
182 5% 6%  
183 0.2% 0.9%  
184 0.1% 0.7%  
185 0.3% 0.6%  
186 0.1% 0.3%  
187 0.1% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0.1% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0.8% 99.9%  
153 0.6% 99.1%  
154 3% 98%  
155 0.2% 95%  
156 2% 95% Last Result
157 0.4% 94%  
158 19% 93%  
159 11% 74%  
160 1.1% 64%  
161 0.6% 63%  
162 7% 62%  
163 1.1% 56%  
164 2% 54% Median
165 20% 53%  
166 2% 33%  
167 3% 30%  
168 1.1% 28%  
169 3% 27%  
170 4% 24%  
171 4% 20%  
172 6% 16%  
173 0.6% 10%  
174 4% 10%  
175 2% 6%  
176 0.4% 4% Majority
177 0.2% 4%  
178 0.1% 3%  
179 0.1% 3%  
180 2% 3%  
181 1.1% 2%  
182 0.3% 0.5%  
183 0.1% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  

Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0.3% 99.9%  
137 0.2% 99.6%  
138 0.2% 99.5%  
139 2% 99.2%  
140 0.4% 98%  
141 2% 97%  
142 0.4% 95%  
143 1.1% 95%  
144 3% 94%  
145 4% 90%  
146 3% 87%  
147 6% 84%  
148 0.8% 78%  
149 6% 77%  
150 2% 71%  
151 2% 69%  
152 17% 67%  
153 1.1% 49%  
154 1.3% 48%  
155 9% 47% Median
156 2% 37%  
157 1.3% 35%  
158 6% 34%  
159 20% 28%  
160 5% 7%  
161 0.2% 3%  
162 0.7% 2%  
163 0.1% 2%  
164 2% 2%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista Obrero Español

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0.1% 100%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0% 99.8%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0.9% 99.8%  
116 0.7% 98.8%  
117 0.9% 98%  
118 1.1% 97%  
119 3% 96%  
120 1.4% 93%  
121 24% 92%  
122 6% 68%  
123 1.2% 62%  
124 0.9% 61%  
125 7% 60%  
126 1.2% 53%  
127 2% 52% Median
128 23% 49%  
129 2% 26%  
130 3% 24%  
131 4% 22%  
132 3% 18%  
133 1.0% 15%  
134 7% 14%  
135 4% 7%  
136 0.4% 3%  
137 0.7% 3%  
138 1.2% 2%  
139 0.3% 0.6%  
140 0.1% 0.3%  
141 0% 0.2%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0.1% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0.1% 100%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.8%  
106 0.1% 99.8%  
107 2% 99.7%  
108 0.9% 98%  
109 0.2% 97%  
110 0.2% 97%  
111 0.6% 96%  
112 1.1% 96%  
113 6% 95%  
114 4% 89%  
115 3% 85%  
116 3% 82%  
117 8% 79%  
118 3% 71%  
119 18% 67%  
120 2% 49%  
121 21% 47% Median
122 1.3% 26%  
123 6% 25%  
124 0.5% 19%  
125 6% 18%  
126 2% 12%  
127 0.3% 10%  
128 0.4% 10%  
129 1.1% 10%  
130 5% 8%  
131 2% 3%  
132 1.2% 2%  
133 0% 0.6%  
134 0.3% 0.6%  
135 0.2% 0.3%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0.1% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.8%  
103 0.1% 99.6%  
104 0.7% 99.5%  
105 0.3% 98.9%  
106 2% 98.6%  
107 1.2% 97%  
108 0.6% 95%  
109 6% 95%  
110 2% 89%  
111 3% 88%  
112 3% 84%  
113 8% 82%  
114 5% 74%  
115 19% 68%  
116 2% 49%  
117 2% 47%  
118 1.5% 45% Median
119 4% 44%  
120 19% 40%  
121 7% 21%  
122 0.8% 14%  
123 4% 14%  
124 0.2% 9%  
125 6% 9%  
126 1.1% 4%  
127 1.4% 3%  
128 0.1% 1.2%  
129 0.8% 1.1%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.3%  
132 0% 0.2%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0.1% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.3% 99.8%  
102 0.3% 99.5%  
103 0.6% 99.2%  
104 2% 98.7%  
105 0.7% 97%  
106 1.1% 96%  
107 0.5% 95%  
108 6% 95%  
109 5% 88%  
110 1.1% 83%  
111 2% 82%  
112 10% 80%  
113 20% 70%  
114 2% 50%  
115 1.3% 48%  
116 2% 47% Median
117 2% 45%  
118 21% 44%  
119 2% 23%  
120 7% 21%  
121 0.6% 14%  
122 3% 13%  
123 1.4% 10%  
124 5% 9%  
125 1.2% 4%  
126 1.2% 2%  
127 0.2% 1.2%  
128 0.7% 1.0%  
129 0% 0.3%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Popular – Vox

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.2% 99.8%  
93 0.1% 99.6%  
94 0.2% 99.5%  
95 0.9% 99.3%  
96 0.6% 98%  
97 0.4% 98%  
98 4% 97%  
99 1.0% 93%  
100 0.6% 92%  
101 3% 91%  
102 4% 88%  
103 6% 84%  
104 2% 78%  
105 0.7% 76%  
106 6% 75%  
107 18% 69%  
108 7% 51%  
109 2% 44%  
110 3% 42% Median
111 5% 39%  
112 20% 34%  
113 5% 15%  
114 2% 10%  
115 0.1% 8%  
116 0.4% 8%  
117 6% 7%  
118 0.9% 1.0%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0% Last Result

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.7%  
61 0.4% 99.6%  
62 0.2% 99.2%  
63 0.2% 99.0%  
64 7% 98.8%  
65 6% 91%  
66 3% 85%  
67 2% 82%  
68 18% 80%  
69 2% 62%  
70 6% 61%  
71 23% 55% Median
72 3% 32%  
73 5% 29%  
74 13% 24%  
75 4% 11%  
76 4% 6%  
77 0.5% 2%  
78 0.5% 2%  
79 0.7% 1.1%  
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations