Opinion Poll by electoPanel for electomania.es, 22 February–18 April 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 27.6% | 27.0–28.2% | 26.9–28.3% | 26.7–28.5% | 26.5–28.7% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 20.3% | 19.8–20.8% | 19.7–21.0% | 19.5–21.1% | 19.3–21.3% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 14.3% | 13.9–14.8% | 13.7–14.9% | 13.6–15.0% | 13.4–15.2% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 13.7% | 13.3–14.1% | 13.2–14.3% | 13.0–14.4% | 12.8–14.6% |
| Vox | 0.2% | 12.4% | 12.0–12.8% | 11.9–12.9% | 11.8–13.0% | 11.6–13.2% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.6–3.0% | 2.5–3.1% | 2.5–3.1% | 2.4–3.2% |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.1–2.5% | 2.1–2.6% | 2.0–2.6% | 2.0–2.7% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2–1.6% | 1.2–1.6% | 1.2–1.6% | 1.1–1.7% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.2–1.5% | 1.1–1.5% | 1.1–1.5% | 1.0–1.6% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8–1.0% | 0.7–1.1% | 0.7–1.1% | 0.7–1.2% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2–0.3% | 0.1–0.3% | 0.1–0.3% | 0.1–0.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 122 | 118–126 | 117–126 | 117–127 | 117–128 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 80 | 78–83 | 76–84 | 76–84 | 76–87 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 46 | 43–49 | 43–49 | 42–49 | 42–50 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 37 | 36–38 | 36–38 | 35–39 | 34–40 |
| Vox | 0 | 34 | 32–36 | 32–37 | 31–38 | 30–40 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 9 | 13 | 13–14 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 10–14 |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 5 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 8 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 2 | 4 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 117 | 6% | 99.5% | |
| 118 | 4% | 93% | |
| 119 | 9% | 90% | |
| 120 | 9% | 81% | |
| 121 | 20% | 72% | |
| 122 | 9% | 53% | Median |
| 123 | 7% | 44% | |
| 124 | 10% | 36% | |
| 125 | 7% | 26% | |
| 126 | 16% | 20% | |
| 127 | 3% | 4% | |
| 128 | 1.3% | 1.5% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 7% | 99.7% | |
| 77 | 2% | 93% | |
| 78 | 10% | 90% | |
| 79 | 19% | 80% | |
| 80 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 81 | 7% | 49% | |
| 82 | 12% | 42% | |
| 83 | 21% | 30% | |
| 84 | 7% | 9% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 87 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 43 | 12% | 97% | |
| 44 | 7% | 85% | |
| 45 | 20% | 78% | |
| 46 | 18% | 58% | Median |
| 47 | 21% | 40% | |
| 48 | 8% | 19% | |
| 49 | 9% | 11% | |
| 50 | 2% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 36 | 19% | 95% | |
| 37 | 50% | 76% | Median |
| 38 | 21% | 26% | |
| 39 | 3% | 4% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 32 | 13% | 97% | |
| 33 | 22% | 84% | |
| 34 | 37% | 63% | Median |
| 35 | 13% | 26% | |
| 36 | 6% | 12% | |
| 37 | 3% | 6% | |
| 38 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 40 | 2% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 10 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 11 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 12 | 4% | 98% | |
| 13 | 49% | 94% | Median |
| 14 | 45% | 45% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 100% | 100% | Median |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 44% | 100% | |
| 7 | 46% | 56% | Median |
| 8 | 9% | 9% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 23% | 100% | |
| 5 | 47% | 77% | Median |
| 6 | 28% | 29% | |
| 7 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 8% | 91% | |
| 4 | 64% | 83% | Median |
| 5 | 18% | 19% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 64% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 36% | 36% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 254 | 249 | 100% | 245–251 | 243–252 | 243–253 | 242–254 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 205 | 100% | 202–207 | 202–208 | 200–209 | 199–211 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular | 222 | 203 | 100% | 199–206 | 197–207 | 197–208 | 197–209 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euskal Herria Bildu | 180 | 188 | 100% | 185–192 | 184–192 | 184–192 | 182–194 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 173 | 177 | 81% | 174–182 | 174–182 | 173–182 | 172–184 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu | 167 | 177 | 56% | 172–181 | 172–181 | 172–181 | 169–183 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 163 | 170 | 0.2% | 166–173 | 166–173 | 166–174 | 164–175 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 168 | 0.1% | 164–171 | 164–172 | 162–172 | 161–173 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 161 | 165 | 0% | 162–169 | 162–169 | 162–170 | 160–171 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox | 169 | 161 | 0% | 157–164 | 157–164 | 156–164 | 155–167 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 159 | 0% | 156–163 | 155–163 | 155–164 | 153–165 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 174 | 133 | 0% | 128–137 | 128–139 | 127–139 | 126–140 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 170 | 127 | 0% | 122–130 | 122–133 | 121–133 | 120–133 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 127 | 0% | 122–130 | 122–132 | 121–132 | 120–133 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 122 | 0% | 118–126 | 117–126 | 117–127 | 117–128 |
| Partido Popular – Vox | 137 | 114 | 0% | 112–117 | 111–117 | 111–119 | 110–121 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 80 | 0% | 78–83 | 76–84 | 76–84 | 76–87 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 239 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 240 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 241 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 242 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 243 | 5% | 98% | |
| 244 | 2% | 93% | |
| 245 | 3% | 92% | |
| 246 | 7% | 89% | |
| 247 | 5% | 82% | |
| 248 | 25% | 77% | Median |
| 249 | 14% | 52% | |
| 250 | 5% | 38% | |
| 251 | 24% | 33% | |
| 252 | 5% | 9% | |
| 253 | 3% | 4% | |
| 254 | 0.6% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 255 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 256 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 257 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 258 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 259 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0% | 100% | |
| 195 | 0% | 100% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 197 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 198 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 199 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 200 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 201 | 2% | 97% | |
| 202 | 7% | 95% | |
| 203 | 10% | 88% | |
| 204 | 18% | 78% | |
| 205 | 11% | 60% | Median |
| 206 | 18% | 49% | |
| 207 | 21% | 31% | |
| 208 | 7% | 9% | |
| 209 | 2% | 3% | |
| 210 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 211 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 195 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 196 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 197 | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 198 | 3% | 94% | |
| 199 | 8% | 91% | |
| 200 | 4% | 83% | |
| 201 | 7% | 80% | |
| 202 | 14% | 72% | Median |
| 203 | 17% | 59% | |
| 204 | 13% | 41% | |
| 205 | 10% | 28% | |
| 206 | 10% | 18% | |
| 207 | 5% | 8% | |
| 208 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 209 | 2% | 2% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euskal Herria Bildu

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 178 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 180 | 0% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 181 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 182 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 183 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 184 | 6% | 98% | |
| 185 | 10% | 92% | |
| 186 | 3% | 82% | |
| 187 | 26% | 79% | |
| 188 | 10% | 53% | Median |
| 189 | 5% | 43% | |
| 190 | 17% | 38% | |
| 191 | 8% | 21% | |
| 192 | 11% | 13% | |
| 193 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 194 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 168 | 0% | 100% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 170 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 171 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 172 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 173 | 2% | 98.7% | Last Result |
| 174 | 12% | 97% | |
| 175 | 5% | 85% | |
| 176 | 17% | 81% | Majority |
| 177 | 16% | 64% | Median |
| 178 | 13% | 48% | |
| 179 | 6% | 35% | |
| 180 | 16% | 29% | |
| 181 | 2% | 13% | |
| 182 | 9% | 11% | |
| 183 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 184 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 167 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 168 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 169 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 171 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 172 | 12% | 98.7% | |
| 173 | 8% | 87% | |
| 174 | 5% | 79% | |
| 175 | 17% | 74% | |
| 176 | 5% | 56% | Median, Majority |
| 177 | 13% | 51% | |
| 178 | 7% | 38% | |
| 179 | 11% | 31% | |
| 180 | 9% | 20% | |
| 181 | 10% | 12% | |
| 182 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 183 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 164 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 165 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 166 | 13% | 98% | |
| 167 | 4% | 85% | |
| 168 | 10% | 81% | |
| 169 | 20% | 71% | |
| 170 | 14% | 51% | Median |
| 171 | 4% | 37% | |
| 172 | 15% | 33% | |
| 173 | 12% | 17% | |
| 174 | 3% | 5% | |
| 175 | 2% | 2% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 159 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 161 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 162 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 163 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 164 | 7% | 96% | |
| 165 | 9% | 89% | |
| 166 | 3% | 80% | |
| 167 | 13% | 78% | |
| 168 | 16% | 65% | Median |
| 169 | 17% | 49% | |
| 170 | 14% | 32% | |
| 171 | 12% | 18% | |
| 172 | 4% | 6% | |
| 173 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 174 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 161 | 0.9% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 162 | 9% | 98.6% | |
| 163 | 8% | 90% | |
| 164 | 5% | 82% | |
| 165 | 27% | 77% | |
| 166 | 12% | 50% | Median |
| 167 | 7% | 37% | |
| 168 | 15% | 30% | |
| 169 | 10% | 15% | |
| 170 | 4% | 5% | |
| 171 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 154 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 155 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 156 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 157 | 11% | 96% | |
| 158 | 12% | 85% | |
| 159 | 14% | 73% | |
| 160 | 8% | 59% | Median |
| 161 | 7% | 51% | |
| 162 | 23% | 44% | |
| 163 | 8% | 20% | |
| 164 | 10% | 12% | |
| 165 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 166 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 167 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 170 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 154 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 155 | 6% | 98.8% | |
| 156 | 9% | 93% | Last Result |
| 157 | 3% | 84% | |
| 158 | 30% | 80% | |
| 159 | 11% | 51% | Median |
| 160 | 6% | 40% | |
| 161 | 8% | 34% | |
| 162 | 14% | 26% | |
| 163 | 8% | 12% | |
| 164 | 2% | 3% | |
| 165 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 128 | 8% | 97% | |
| 129 | 8% | 89% | |
| 130 | 5% | 81% | |
| 131 | 13% | 76% | |
| 132 | 7% | 63% | |
| 133 | 7% | 56% | Median |
| 134 | 10% | 49% | |
| 135 | 6% | 39% | |
| 136 | 13% | 32% | |
| 137 | 11% | 19% | |
| 138 | 2% | 8% | |
| 139 | 5% | 6% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 121 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 122 | 8% | 97% | |
| 123 | 7% | 88% | |
| 124 | 9% | 81% | |
| 125 | 11% | 73% | |
| 126 | 5% | 62% | Median |
| 127 | 8% | 56% | |
| 128 | 18% | 49% | |
| 129 | 6% | 31% | |
| 130 | 17% | 25% | |
| 131 | 0.9% | 9% | |
| 132 | 2% | 8% | |
| 133 | 5% | 6% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 121 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 122 | 13% | 96% | |
| 123 | 3% | 83% | |
| 124 | 10% | 80% | |
| 125 | 12% | 70% | |
| 126 | 5% | 58% | Median |
| 127 | 6% | 52% | |
| 128 | 19% | 47% | |
| 129 | 8% | 28% | |
| 130 | 11% | 20% | |
| 131 | 2% | 9% | |
| 132 | 6% | 6% | |
| 133 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 117 | 6% | 99.5% | |
| 118 | 4% | 93% | |
| 119 | 9% | 90% | |
| 120 | 9% | 81% | |
| 121 | 20% | 72% | |
| 122 | 9% | 53% | Median |
| 123 | 7% | 44% | |
| 124 | 10% | 36% | |
| 125 | 7% | 26% | |
| 126 | 16% | 20% | |
| 127 | 3% | 4% | |
| 128 | 1.3% | 1.5% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Vox

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 109 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 5% | 99.4% | |
| 112 | 17% | 94% | |
| 113 | 8% | 77% | |
| 114 | 22% | 69% | Median |
| 115 | 13% | 48% | |
| 116 | 14% | 34% | |
| 117 | 15% | 20% | |
| 118 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 119 | 2% | 3% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 121 | 2% | 2% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 7% | 99.7% | |
| 77 | 2% | 93% | |
| 78 | 10% | 90% | |
| 79 | 19% | 80% | |
| 80 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 81 | 7% | 49% | |
| 82 | 12% | 42% | |
| 83 | 21% | 30% | |
| 84 | 7% | 9% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 87 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: electoPanel
- Commissioner(s): electomania.es
- Fieldwork period: 22 February–18 April 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 10600
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.23%