Opinion Poll by GAD3 for ABC, 1–19 April 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 31.5% | 30.9–32.1% | 30.7–32.3% | 30.6–32.4% | 30.3–32.7% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 20.1% | 19.6–20.6% | 19.4–20.8% | 19.3–20.9% | 19.1–21.2% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 13.9% | 13.5–14.4% | 13.3–14.5% | 13.2–14.6% | 13.0–14.8% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 12.5% | 12.1–12.9% | 12.0–13.1% | 11.9–13.2% | 11.7–13.4% |
| Vox | 0.2% | 11.4% | 11.0–11.8% | 10.9–11.9% | 10.8–12.0% | 10.6–12.3% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.1–3.6% | 3.0–3.6% | 3.0–3.7% | 2.9–3.8% |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.7–2.1% | 1.7–2.1% | 1.6–2.2% | 1.6–2.3% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.1–1.4% | 1.0–1.4% | 1.0–1.4% | 0.9–1.5% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1–1.4% | 1.0–1.4% | 1.0–1.4% | 0.9–1.5% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8–1.0% | 0.7–1.1% | 0.7–1.1% | 0.7–1.2% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.4% | 0.2–0.4% | 0.2–0.4% | 0.2–0.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 137 | 137–139 | 135–141 | 134–142 | 133–143 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 79 | 76–80 | 73–81 | 72–81 | 70–82 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 40 | 39–43 | 38–45 | 38–46 | 38–47 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 33 | 31–35 | 31–36 | 30–37 | 29–37 |
| Vox | 0 | 29 | 28–31 | 28–32 | 28–32 | 28–33 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 9 | 15 | 14–15 | 14–15 | 14–15 | 14–16 |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 8 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4–7 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 134 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 135 | 2% | 96% | |
| 136 | 2% | 94% | |
| 137 | 48% | 91% | Median |
| 138 | 4% | 44% | |
| 139 | 32% | 40% | |
| 140 | 2% | 8% | |
| 141 | 2% | 6% | |
| 142 | 2% | 4% | |
| 143 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 144 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 71 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 72 | 2% | 98% | |
| 73 | 3% | 97% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 75 | 2% | 93% | |
| 76 | 5% | 91% | |
| 77 | 14% | 86% | |
| 78 | 18% | 73% | |
| 79 | 5% | 54% | Median |
| 80 | 45% | 50% | |
| 81 | 3% | 5% | |
| 82 | 2% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 38 | 7% | 99.5% | |
| 39 | 20% | 93% | |
| 40 | 45% | 73% | Median |
| 41 | 2% | 28% | |
| 42 | 10% | 26% | |
| 43 | 7% | 15% | |
| 44 | 3% | 9% | |
| 45 | 2% | 6% | |
| 46 | 2% | 4% | |
| 47 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 31 | 6% | 95% | |
| 32 | 19% | 89% | |
| 33 | 45% | 69% | Median |
| 34 | 9% | 25% | |
| 35 | 7% | 15% | |
| 36 | 5% | 8% | |
| 37 | 3% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 28 | 18% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 50% | 82% | Median |
| 30 | 8% | 32% | |
| 31 | 15% | 24% | |
| 32 | 7% | 9% | |
| 33 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 31% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 68% | 69% | Median |
| 16 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 95% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 4 | 77% | 99.1% | Median |
| 5 | 22% | 22% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 6 | 98% | 98.8% | Median |
| 7 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 3% | 94% | |
| 4 | 83% | 91% | Median |
| 5 | 7% | 8% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12% | 100% | |
| 1 | 87% | 88% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 254 | 257 | 100% | 255–258 | 254–259 | 253–260 | 252–261 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular | 222 | 217 | 100% | 214–217 | 212–218 | 211–219 | 208–221 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 210 | 100% | 210–215 | 210–216 | 208–217 | 208–219 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euskal Herria Bildu | 180 | 199 | 100% | 198–202 | 197–203 | 194–204 | 193–205 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu | 167 | 189 | 100% | 188–192 | 186–193 | 184–194 | 183–196 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 173 | 189 | 100% | 188–193 | 187–193 | 184–194 | 183–195 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 163 | 180 | 97% | 179–183 | 178–185 | 175–186 | 174–187 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 177 | 98.9% | 177–182 | 176–183 | 176–185 | 174–187 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 161 | 176 | 88% | 175–180 | 174–180 | 171–182 | 170–183 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 170 | 3% | 169–174 | 168–174 | 165–176 | 165–177 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox | 169 | 149 | 0% | 146–151 | 145–152 | 144–154 | 143–155 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 137 | 0% | 137–139 | 135–141 | 134–142 | 133–143 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 174 | 126 | 0% | 122–126 | 121–129 | 120–130 | 119–131 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 170 | 121 | 0% | 116–121 | 116–124 | 115–125 | 114–126 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 120 | 0% | 116–120 | 115–123 | 114–124 | 113–125 |
| Partido Popular – Vox | 137 | 109 | 0% | 105–109 | 104–109 | 102–111 | 100–113 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 79 | 0% | 76–80 | 73–81 | 72–81 | 70–82 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 250 | 0% | 100% | |
| 251 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 252 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 253 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 254 | 5% | 97% | Last Result |
| 255 | 5% | 92% | |
| 256 | 17% | 87% | Median |
| 257 | 46% | 70% | |
| 258 | 15% | 24% | |
| 259 | 5% | 9% | |
| 260 | 3% | 4% | |
| 261 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 262 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 263 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 264 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 207 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 208 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 209 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 210 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 211 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 212 | 4% | 97% | |
| 213 | 0.7% | 93% | |
| 214 | 4% | 93% | |
| 215 | 5% | 89% | |
| 216 | 19% | 84% | Median |
| 217 | 58% | 64% | |
| 218 | 2% | 6% | |
| 219 | 2% | 4% | |
| 220 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 221 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 222 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 223 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0% | 100% | |
| 195 | 0% | 100% | |
| 196 | 0% | 100% | |
| 197 | 0% | 100% | |
| 198 | 0% | 100% | |
| 199 | 0% | 100% | |
| 200 | 0% | 100% | |
| 201 | 0% | 100% | |
| 202 | 0% | 100% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 204 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 206 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 208 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 209 | 2% | 97% | |
| 210 | 58% | 95% | Median |
| 211 | 2% | 38% | |
| 212 | 11% | 36% | |
| 213 | 4% | 25% | |
| 214 | 3% | 21% | |
| 215 | 12% | 18% | |
| 216 | 3% | 6% | |
| 217 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 218 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 219 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 220 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 221 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 222 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 223 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 180 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 181 | 0% | 100% | |
| 182 | 0% | 100% | |
| 183 | 0% | 100% | |
| 184 | 0% | 100% | |
| 185 | 0% | 100% | |
| 186 | 0% | 100% | |
| 187 | 0% | 100% | |
| 188 | 0% | 100% | |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 192 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 193 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 194 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 195 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 196 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 197 | 5% | 96% | |
| 198 | 2% | 91% | |
| 199 | 44% | 89% | Median |
| 200 | 17% | 44% | |
| 201 | 10% | 28% | |
| 202 | 11% | 18% | |
| 203 | 3% | 7% | |
| 204 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 205 | 2% | 2% | |
| 206 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 167 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 168 | 0% | 100% | |
| 169 | 0% | 100% | |
| 170 | 0% | 100% | |
| 171 | 0% | 100% | |
| 172 | 0% | 100% | |
| 173 | 0% | 100% | |
| 174 | 0% | 100% | |
| 175 | 0% | 100% | |
| 176 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 100% | |
| 178 | 0% | 100% | |
| 179 | 0% | 100% | |
| 180 | 0% | 100% | |
| 181 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 183 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 184 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 185 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 186 | 2% | 97% | |
| 187 | 4% | 95% | |
| 188 | 3% | 90% | |
| 189 | 56% | 87% | Median |
| 190 | 6% | 31% | |
| 191 | 7% | 25% | |
| 192 | 11% | 18% | |
| 193 | 3% | 7% | |
| 194 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 195 | 2% | 2% | |
| 196 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 173 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 174 | 0% | 100% | |
| 175 | 0% | 100% | |
| 176 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 100% | |
| 178 | 0% | 100% | |
| 179 | 0% | 100% | |
| 180 | 0% | 100% | |
| 181 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 183 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 184 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 185 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 186 | 2% | 97% | |
| 187 | 4% | 95% | |
| 188 | 3% | 91% | |
| 189 | 44% | 88% | Median |
| 190 | 17% | 44% | |
| 191 | 4% | 27% | |
| 192 | 13% | 23% | |
| 193 | 6% | 10% | |
| 194 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 195 | 2% | 2% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 163 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 164 | 0% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0% | 100% | |
| 166 | 0% | 100% | |
| 167 | 0% | 100% | |
| 168 | 0% | 100% | |
| 169 | 0% | 100% | |
| 170 | 0% | 100% | |
| 171 | 0% | 100% | |
| 172 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 173 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 174 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 175 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 97% | Majority |
| 177 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 178 | 3% | 96% | |
| 179 | 3% | 92% | |
| 180 | 45% | 89% | Median |
| 181 | 17% | 45% | |
| 182 | 8% | 28% | |
| 183 | 12% | 19% | |
| 184 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 185 | 2% | 6% | |
| 186 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 187 | 2% | 2% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0% | 100% | |
| 166 | 0% | 100% | |
| 167 | 0% | 100% | |
| 168 | 0% | 100% | |
| 169 | 0% | 100% | |
| 170 | 0% | 100% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 172 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 174 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 175 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 176 | 4% | 98.9% | Majority |
| 177 | 51% | 94% | Median |
| 178 | 17% | 44% | |
| 179 | 3% | 27% | |
| 180 | 3% | 24% | |
| 181 | 9% | 21% | |
| 182 | 4% | 12% | |
| 183 | 3% | 8% | |
| 184 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 185 | 3% | 4% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 187 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 189 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 161 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0% | 100% | |
| 166 | 0% | 100% | |
| 167 | 0% | 100% | |
| 168 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 169 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 170 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 171 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 173 | 2% | 97% | |
| 174 | 3% | 95% | |
| 175 | 5% | 93% | |
| 176 | 45% | 88% | Median, Majority |
| 177 | 16% | 44% | |
| 178 | 5% | 28% | |
| 179 | 11% | 23% | |
| 180 | 7% | 12% | |
| 181 | 2% | 5% | |
| 182 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 183 | 2% | 2% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 156 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 166 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 167 | 2% | 97% | |
| 168 | 3% | 95% | |
| 169 | 4% | 93% | |
| 170 | 44% | 88% | Median |
| 171 | 16% | 44% | |
| 172 | 5% | 28% | |
| 173 | 11% | 23% | |
| 174 | 7% | 12% | |
| 175 | 2% | 5% | |
| 176 | 0.8% | 3% | Majority |
| 177 | 2% | 2% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 142 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 143 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 145 | 2% | 97% | |
| 146 | 5% | 95% | |
| 147 | 15% | 90% | |
| 148 | 19% | 75% | Median |
| 149 | 44% | 56% | |
| 150 | 1.2% | 12% | |
| 151 | 5% | 11% | |
| 152 | 2% | 5% | |
| 153 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 154 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 155 | 2% | 2% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 134 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 135 | 2% | 96% | |
| 136 | 2% | 94% | |
| 137 | 48% | 91% | Median |
| 138 | 4% | 44% | |
| 139 | 32% | 40% | |
| 140 | 2% | 8% | |
| 141 | 2% | 6% | |
| 142 | 2% | 4% | |
| 143 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 144 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 121 | 6% | 97% | |
| 122 | 1.1% | 90% | |
| 123 | 16% | 89% | |
| 124 | 6% | 73% | |
| 125 | 15% | 68% | Median |
| 126 | 44% | 53% | |
| 127 | 2% | 9% | |
| 128 | 0.9% | 7% | |
| 129 | 3% | 6% | |
| 130 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 131 | 2% | 2% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 113 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 115 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 116 | 7% | 96% | |
| 117 | 1.4% | 90% | |
| 118 | 16% | 88% | |
| 119 | 13% | 73% | |
| 120 | 6% | 59% | Median |
| 121 | 44% | 53% | |
| 122 | 2% | 9% | |
| 123 | 2% | 7% | |
| 124 | 2% | 5% | |
| 125 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 126 | 2% | 2% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 114 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 115 | 6% | 97% | |
| 116 | 1.2% | 90% | |
| 117 | 16% | 89% | |
| 118 | 6% | 73% | |
| 119 | 14% | 68% | Median |
| 120 | 44% | 53% | |
| 121 | 3% | 9% | |
| 122 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 123 | 3% | 6% | |
| 124 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 125 | 2% | 2% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 100 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 101 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 102 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 103 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 104 | 3% | 96% | |
| 105 | 12% | 94% | |
| 106 | 3% | 81% | |
| 107 | 6% | 78% | |
| 108 | 4% | 71% | Median |
| 109 | 63% | 68% | |
| 110 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 111 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 112 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 71 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 72 | 2% | 98% | |
| 73 | 3% | 97% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 75 | 2% | 93% | |
| 76 | 5% | 91% | |
| 77 | 14% | 86% | |
| 78 | 18% | 73% | |
| 79 | 5% | 54% | Median |
| 80 | 45% | 50% | |
| 81 | 3% | 5% | |
| 82 | 2% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GAD3
- Commissioner(s): ABC
- Fieldwork period: 1–19 April 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 10000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.59%