Opinion Poll by Celeste-Tel for eldiario.es, 15–20 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 22.6% 28.9% 27.2–30.7% 26.7–31.2% 26.3–31.7% 25.5–32.5%
Partido Popular 33.0% 23.5% 22.0–25.3% 21.5–25.7% 21.1–26.2% 20.4–27.0%
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 13.1% 15.1% 13.8–16.6% 13.4–17.0% 13.1–17.3% 12.5–18.1%
Unidos Podemos 21.2% 14.8% 13.5–16.3% 13.2–16.7% 12.8–17.1% 12.2–17.8%
Vox 0.2% 7.9% 7.0–9.1% 6.7–9.4% 6.4–9.7% 6.0–10.2%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 2.7% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.1–4.1% 1.8–4.5%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 2.0% 1.5% 1.2–2.1% 1.1–2.3% 1.0–2.5% 0.8–2.8%
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal 1.2% 1.3% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–2.0% 0.8–2.1% 0.6–2.4%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.2% 1.2% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.3%
Euskal Herria Bildu 0.8% 0.8% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.8%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario 0.3% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 85 112 112–127 110–132 108–138 105–139
Partido Popular 137 104 88–113 86–115 83–115 80–116
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 32 50 45–53 41–56 36–59 32–61
Unidos Podemos 71 42 35–42 34–47 34–50 32–54
Vox 0 16 11–18 11–20 10–22 9–24
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 9 11 10–15 9–15 9–15 8–16
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 8 6 4–8 4–9 4–9 3–10
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 5 4 4–8 3–8 3–8 3–10
Euskal Herria Bildu 2 4 2–6 1–6 1–7 0–7
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario 1 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–3

Partido Socialista Obrero Español

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 100%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.8%  
103 0.2% 99.8%  
104 0.1% 99.6%  
105 2% 99.5%  
106 0.1% 98%  
107 0.1% 98%  
108 0.7% 98%  
109 0.4% 97%  
110 2% 97%  
111 0.6% 94%  
112 50% 94% Median
113 7% 44%  
114 3% 36%  
115 2% 33%  
116 1.4% 32%  
117 8% 30%  
118 2% 22%  
119 1.4% 20%  
120 2% 19%  
121 0.3% 17%  
122 0.8% 17%  
123 0.8% 16%  
124 1.4% 15%  
125 0.4% 14%  
126 0.4% 13%  
127 3% 13%  
128 0.7% 10%  
129 1.0% 9%  
130 1.0% 8%  
131 0.3% 7%  
132 2% 7%  
133 1.4% 5%  
134 0.1% 3%  
135 0.3% 3%  
136 0% 3%  
137 0.2% 3%  
138 1.3% 3%  
139 1.1% 2%  
140 0% 0.5%  
141 0.2% 0.5%  
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 0.5% 99.6%  
81 0.3% 99.0%  
82 0.5% 98.7%  
83 1.1% 98%  
84 0.5% 97%  
85 1.4% 97%  
86 4% 95%  
87 0.6% 91%  
88 0.7% 91%  
89 1.4% 90%  
90 0.2% 89%  
91 2% 88%  
92 1.5% 86%  
93 3% 85%  
94 0.7% 82%  
95 1.0% 81%  
96 3% 80%  
97 0.3% 77%  
98 5% 77%  
99 0.7% 72%  
100 2% 71%  
101 1.5% 68%  
102 2% 67%  
103 1.3% 65%  
104 40% 63% Median
105 3% 23%  
106 0.7% 20%  
107 3% 20%  
108 4% 16%  
109 0.3% 12%  
110 0.4% 12%  
111 0.2% 12%  
112 1.4% 11%  
113 0.8% 10%  
114 0% 9%  
115 9% 9%  
116 0.5% 0.7%  
117 0% 0.2%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0% Last Result

Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 0.3% 99.6% Last Result
33 0.1% 99.2%  
34 0.7% 99.1%  
35 0.1% 98%  
36 1.1% 98%  
37 0.9% 97%  
38 0.1% 96%  
39 0.2% 96%  
40 0.6% 96%  
41 0.8% 95%  
42 0.3% 95%  
43 0.4% 94%  
44 0.2% 94%  
45 9% 94%  
46 3% 85%  
47 3% 82%  
48 4% 80%  
49 2% 76%  
50 54% 74% Median
51 7% 20%  
52 2% 13%  
53 2% 12%  
54 2% 9%  
55 1.1% 7%  
56 1.2% 6%  
57 0.5% 5%  
58 0.2% 4%  
59 2% 4%  
60 1.2% 2%  
61 0.3% 0.6%  
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Unidos Podemos

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.6% 99.6%  
33 0.3% 99.0%  
34 5% 98.8%  
35 6% 94%  
36 6% 88%  
37 4% 82%  
38 2% 79%  
39 8% 76%  
40 5% 69%  
41 11% 64%  
42 43% 53% Median
43 1.3% 10%  
44 1.2% 9%  
45 0.3% 7%  
46 0.5% 7%  
47 2% 7%  
48 0.3% 4%  
49 0.3% 4%  
50 2% 4%  
51 0.2% 2%  
52 0.1% 2%  
53 0.5% 2%  
54 0.8% 1.2%  
55 0.1% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.4%  
57 0% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.3% 99.9%  
9 0.7% 99.6%  
10 3% 99.0%  
11 11% 96%  
12 4% 84%  
13 12% 80%  
14 3% 68%  
15 3% 65%  
16 46% 62% Median
17 5% 16%  
18 5% 12%  
19 2% 7%  
20 2% 5%  
21 0.7% 4%  
22 0.9% 3%  
23 0.8% 2%  
24 1.3% 1.3%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.4% 99.9%  
8 1.3% 99.5%  
9 8% 98% Last Result
10 2% 91%  
11 50% 89% Median
12 8% 40%  
13 12% 31%  
14 8% 19%  
15 11% 11%  
16 0.4% 0.7%  
17 0.2% 0.4%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 0.2% 99.8%  
3 2% 99.6%  
4 8% 98%  
5 16% 90%  
6 52% 73% Median
7 3% 21%  
8 13% 18% Last Result
9 3% 5%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.3% 99.9%  
3 5% 99.6%  
4 46% 95% Median
5 6% 49% Last Result
6 27% 44%  
7 7% 17%  
8 8% 10%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.6% 0.6%  
11 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100%  
1 6% 99.2%  
2 21% 93% Last Result
3 4% 72%  
4 52% 68% Median
5 5% 17%  
6 8% 12%  
7 3% 4%  
8 0.4% 0.5%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 26% 100%  
1 68% 74% Last Result, Median
2 5% 6%  
3 0.7% 1.2%  
4 0.4% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 254 266 100% 262–272 257–274 254–275 250–279
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular 222 216 100% 211–227 207–227 205–228 199–236
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos 188 204 100% 198–217 197–221 195–223 190–228
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu 180 179 96% 177–196 176–203 174–206 170–207
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 173 171 28% 168–186 166–193 164–195 161–199
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu 167 169 26% 165–184 162–190 160–193 159–197
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu 163 162 13% 159–177 158–183 157–188 150–189
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 117 162 12% 157–179 157–182 155–184 150–187
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 161 158 9% 157–174 153–181 152–183 146–186
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos 156 154 3% 150–167 147–174 146–177 141–180
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox 169 170 2% 152–172 146–173 143–174 142–179
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 174 158 0% 144–166 138–166 134–167 131–171
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario 170 155 0% 138–160 132–160 131–162 126–167
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 169 154 0% 136–160 132–160 130–161 125–166
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 85 112 0% 112–127 110–132 108–138 105–139
Partido Popular – Vox 137 120 0% 103–126 100–126 98–126 94–133
Partido Popular 137 104 0% 88–113 86–115 83–115 80–116

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0.9% 99.8%  
251 0.3% 98.9%  
252 0.1% 98.7%  
253 0.3% 98.6%  
254 2% 98% Last Result
255 0.2% 97%  
256 0.6% 97%  
257 2% 96%  
258 1.0% 94%  
259 1.4% 93%  
260 0.8% 92%  
261 0.8% 91%  
262 1.0% 90%  
263 2% 89%  
264 2% 87%  
265 9% 86%  
266 41% 77% Median
267 2% 36%  
268 5% 34%  
269 3% 29%  
270 2% 26%  
271 5% 23%  
272 10% 19%  
273 3% 9%  
274 1.4% 6%  
275 3% 5%  
276 0.4% 1.3%  
277 0.1% 0.9%  
278 0.2% 0.8%  
279 0.4% 0.6%  
280 0% 0.2%  
281 0.1% 0.2%  
282 0.1% 0.1%  
283 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
196 0.2% 100%  
197 0.2% 99.7%  
198 0% 99.6%  
199 0.1% 99.6%  
200 0.1% 99.4%  
201 0.2% 99.3%  
202 1.1% 99.2%  
203 0.1% 98%  
204 0.1% 98%  
205 0.5% 98%  
206 1.3% 97%  
207 1.1% 96%  
208 1.3% 95%  
209 2% 94%  
210 0.8% 92%  
211 3% 91%  
212 1.1% 88%  
213 0.5% 87%  
214 2% 87%  
215 8% 85%  
216 40% 76% Median
217 2% 36%  
218 6% 34%  
219 0.6% 28%  
220 2% 27%  
221 4% 25%  
222 2% 22% Last Result
223 1.3% 19%  
224 4% 18%  
225 0.4% 14%  
226 1.2% 14%  
227 10% 12%  
228 0.6% 3%  
229 0.1% 2%  
230 0.6% 2%  
231 0.2% 1.5%  
232 0.2% 1.2%  
233 0.3% 1.0%  
234 0.1% 0.7%  
235 0% 0.6%  
236 0.1% 0.5%  
237 0.2% 0.5%  
238 0% 0.3%  
239 0% 0.3%  
240 0% 0.2%  
241 0% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.2%  
243 0.1% 0.2%  
244 0.1% 0.1%  
245 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
183 0% 100%  
184 0% 99.9%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0% 99.9%  
187 0.1% 99.9%  
188 0% 99.8% Last Result
189 0% 99.8%  
190 0.6% 99.8%  
191 0.1% 99.1%  
192 0.1% 99.0%  
193 0.4% 99.0%  
194 0.2% 98.6%  
195 2% 98%  
196 1.2% 96%  
197 2% 95%  
198 9% 93%  
199 0.3% 84%  
200 3% 83%  
201 3% 80%  
202 0.3% 77%  
203 1.3% 77%  
204 44% 76% Median
205 1.2% 32%  
206 6% 30%  
207 2% 24%  
208 0.5% 23%  
209 0.6% 22%  
210 0.6% 22%  
211 1.0% 21%  
212 1.3% 20%  
213 2% 19%  
214 0.8% 17%  
215 0.5% 16%  
216 4% 15%  
217 2% 12%  
218 1.0% 10%  
219 1.2% 9%  
220 2% 7%  
221 1.4% 6%  
222 2% 4%  
223 0.9% 3%  
224 0.8% 2%  
225 0.2% 1.2%  
226 0.3% 0.9%  
227 0.1% 0.6%  
228 0.1% 0.5%  
229 0.2% 0.4%  
230 0.1% 0.2%  
231 0.1% 0.2%  
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0.1%  
234 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
168 0.2% 100%  
169 0.2% 99.7%  
170 1.4% 99.5%  
171 0% 98%  
172 0.1% 98%  
173 0.2% 98%  
174 1.4% 98%  
175 0.2% 96%  
176 4% 96% Majority
177 3% 92%  
178 3% 89%  
179 48% 86% Median
180 3% 38% Last Result
181 4% 35%  
182 0.7% 32%  
183 0.9% 31%  
184 0.2% 30%  
185 1.3% 30%  
186 4% 29%  
187 2% 25%  
188 0.8% 23%  
189 5% 22%  
190 0.8% 17%  
191 2% 16%  
192 0.3% 14%  
193 0.5% 14%  
194 0.4% 13%  
195 0.6% 13%  
196 3% 12%  
197 0.5% 9%  
198 0.3% 9%  
199 0.1% 8%  
200 0.5% 8%  
201 2% 8%  
202 0.9% 6%  
203 2% 5%  
204 0.2% 3%  
205 0.1% 3%  
206 0.3% 3%  
207 2% 2%  
208 0.1% 0.5%  
209 0% 0.4%  
210 0% 0.4%  
211 0% 0.4%  
212 0.2% 0.3%  
213 0% 0.2%  
214 0% 0.2%  
215 0.1% 0.1%  
216 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0.2% 100%  
159 0% 99.7%  
160 0% 99.7%  
161 1.5% 99.6%  
162 0% 98%  
163 0.5% 98%  
164 0.3% 98%  
165 2% 97%  
166 5% 96%  
167 0.1% 90%  
168 2% 90%  
169 1.1% 88%  
170 2% 87%  
171 50% 86% Median
172 4% 35%  
173 0.7% 32% Last Result
174 0.9% 31%  
175 2% 30%  
176 2% 28% Majority
177 5% 26%  
178 0.5% 21%  
179 3% 20%  
180 0.5% 18%  
181 0.8% 17%  
182 1.1% 16%  
183 1.1% 15%  
184 2% 14%  
185 0.4% 12%  
186 2% 12%  
187 0.4% 10%  
188 0.6% 9%  
189 0.2% 9%  
190 0.9% 8%  
191 0.6% 8%  
192 1.4% 7%  
193 1.3% 6%  
194 1.2% 4%  
195 1.1% 3%  
196 0.3% 2%  
197 0.1% 2%  
198 0.2% 1.5%  
199 0.8% 1.3%  
200 0.1% 0.5%  
201 0.2% 0.4%  
202 0% 0.3%  
203 0% 0.2%  
204 0% 0.2%  
205 0% 0.2%  
206 0.1% 0.2%  
207 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
155 0.1% 100%  
156 0.1% 99.8%  
157 0.1% 99.8%  
158 0% 99.6%  
159 0.2% 99.6%  
160 2% 99.4%  
161 1.1% 97%  
162 2% 96%  
163 0% 94%  
164 4% 94%  
165 0.4% 90%  
166 4% 90%  
167 1.0% 86% Last Result
168 10% 85%  
169 43% 75% Median
170 1.4% 32%  
171 1.1% 31%  
172 0.9% 30%  
173 0.1% 29%  
174 2% 29%  
175 0.5% 27%  
176 3% 26% Majority
177 8% 24%  
178 0.6% 16%  
179 0.4% 15%  
180 2% 15%  
181 0.6% 13%  
182 0.8% 12%  
183 0.9% 11%  
184 1.3% 10%  
185 0.3% 9%  
186 0.3% 9%  
187 0.1% 8%  
188 1.3% 8%  
189 1.1% 7%  
190 2% 6%  
191 0.7% 4%  
192 0% 3%  
193 1.3% 3%  
194 1.1% 2%  
195 0.1% 0.8%  
196 0.1% 0.6%  
197 0.1% 0.5%  
198 0.1% 0.5%  
199 0% 0.3%  
200 0.1% 0.3%  
201 0% 0.2%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0.1% 100%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 2% 99.8%  
151 0.1% 98%  
152 0.1% 98%  
153 0% 98%  
154 0.1% 98%  
155 0.2% 98%  
156 0.1% 98%  
157 2% 98%  
158 2% 95%  
159 3% 93%  
160 3% 89%  
161 8% 87%  
162 43% 78% Median
163 3% 35% Last Result
164 2% 32%  
165 0.8% 30%  
166 1.3% 29%  
167 2% 28%  
168 6% 26%  
169 1.2% 20%  
170 0.3% 19%  
171 0.8% 19%  
172 0.4% 18%  
173 2% 18%  
174 2% 16%  
175 1.0% 14%  
176 2% 13% Majority
177 0.8% 11%  
178 0.5% 10%  
179 0.6% 9%  
180 0.4% 9%  
181 0.3% 8%  
182 2% 8%  
183 2% 6%  
184 1.2% 4%  
185 0.2% 3%  
186 0.2% 3%  
187 0.2% 3%  
188 1.2% 3%  
189 1.0% 1.5%  
190 0.1% 0.4%  
191 0% 0.4%  
192 0% 0.4%  
193 0.1% 0.4%  
194 0.1% 0.2%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100% Last Result
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.8%  
148 0% 99.8%  
149 0.1% 99.8%  
150 0.5% 99.7%  
151 0.4% 99.3%  
152 0.1% 98.8%  
153 0.2% 98.8%  
154 0.1% 98.5%  
155 0.9% 98%  
156 1.2% 97%  
157 9% 96%  
158 1.1% 88%  
159 2% 86%  
160 0.3% 85%  
161 3% 85%  
162 40% 82% Median
163 5% 41%  
164 0.7% 36%  
165 3% 36%  
166 1.3% 33%  
167 7% 32%  
168 4% 25%  
169 1.3% 20%  
170 2% 19%  
171 0.4% 18%  
172 2% 17%  
173 0.4% 15%  
174 2% 15%  
175 0.6% 13%  
176 0.3% 12% Majority
177 1.4% 12%  
178 0.4% 11%  
179 2% 10%  
180 1.1% 8%  
181 0.6% 7%  
182 2% 6%  
183 0.5% 4%  
184 1.2% 4%  
185 0.2% 2%  
186 2% 2%  
187 0.2% 0.5%  
188 0.1% 0.3%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100%  
145 0.2% 99.9%  
146 1.5% 99.7%  
147 0% 98%  
148 0.2% 98%  
149 0.1% 98%  
150 0.1% 98%  
151 0.2% 98%  
152 0.9% 98%  
153 2% 97%  
154 2% 95%  
155 1.0% 93%  
156 0.1% 92%  
157 7% 91%  
158 42% 84% Median
159 11% 42%  
160 0.6% 32%  
161 1.5% 31% Last Result
162 6% 30%  
163 0.4% 24%  
164 1.0% 23%  
165 1.4% 22%  
166 2% 21%  
167 0.9% 19%  
168 0.4% 18%  
169 2% 18%  
170 0.8% 16%  
171 0.6% 15%  
172 2% 15%  
173 1.3% 13%  
174 2% 12%  
175 0.1% 9%  
176 1.0% 9% Majority
177 0.8% 8%  
178 0.1% 8%  
179 0.3% 7%  
180 0.7% 7%  
181 2% 6%  
182 1.2% 4%  
183 1.4% 3%  
184 1.0% 2%  
185 0.1% 0.7%  
186 0.2% 0.6%  
187 0% 0.5%  
188 0.2% 0.4%  
189 0% 0.3%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0.1% 100%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0.2% 99.8%  
141 1.4% 99.7%  
142 0.1% 98%  
143 0.1% 98%  
144 0.1% 98%  
145 0.2% 98%  
146 0.4% 98%  
147 3% 97%  
148 1.5% 94%  
149 1.1% 93%  
150 3% 92%  
151 1.4% 89%  
152 1.2% 87%  
153 14% 86%  
154 41% 72% Median
155 1.4% 31%  
156 5% 30% Last Result
157 2% 24%  
158 1.1% 23%  
159 0.8% 22%  
160 0.3% 21%  
161 2% 20%  
162 0.7% 18%  
163 0.6% 17%  
164 1.2% 17%  
165 1.2% 16%  
166 3% 14%  
167 1.5% 11%  
168 0.2% 10%  
169 0.2% 10%  
170 0.8% 9%  
171 0.9% 9%  
172 0.1% 8%  
173 2% 8%  
174 0.6% 5%  
175 1.5% 5%  
176 0.3% 3% Majority
177 1.0% 3%  
178 0.1% 2%  
179 0.2% 2%  
180 1.1% 2%  
181 0% 0.5%  
182 0.1% 0.4%  
183 0% 0.3%  
184 0% 0.3%  
185 0.1% 0.2%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
134 0% 100%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.8%  
137 0.1% 99.8%  
138 0% 99.7%  
139 0% 99.6%  
140 0% 99.6%  
141 0.1% 99.6%  
142 1.0% 99.5%  
143 1.1% 98.6%  
144 0.4% 97%  
145 0.1% 97%  
146 2% 97%  
147 0.9% 95%  
148 2% 94%  
149 0.6% 92%  
150 0.3% 92%  
151 0.3% 91%  
152 2% 91%  
153 1.0% 89%  
154 0.5% 88%  
155 0.5% 87%  
156 0.7% 87%  
157 0.3% 86%  
158 1.4% 86%  
159 1.1% 84%  
160 0.4% 83%  
161 6% 83%  
162 3% 77%  
163 3% 74%  
164 1.2% 71%  
165 0.2% 70%  
166 1.0% 70%  
167 0.8% 69%  
168 3% 68%  
169 1.0% 65% Last Result
170 42% 64% Median
171 10% 22%  
172 3% 11%  
173 5% 9%  
174 1.3% 4%  
175 0.3% 2%  
176 0.1% 2% Majority
177 0% 2%  
178 0.2% 2%  
179 1.5% 2%  
180 0% 0.3%  
181 0.3% 0.3%  
182 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0.2% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.7%  
129 0% 99.6%  
130 0.1% 99.6%  
131 0.1% 99.5%  
132 0.1% 99.4%  
133 1.1% 99.3%  
134 1.2% 98%  
135 0.2% 97%  
136 0.2% 97%  
137 0.3% 97%  
138 2% 96%  
139 0.9% 94%  
140 0.5% 93%  
141 0.9% 93%  
142 0.2% 92%  
143 0.6% 92%  
144 3% 91%  
145 0.4% 88%  
146 0.7% 87%  
147 1.4% 87%  
148 2% 85%  
149 0.4% 84%  
150 0.5% 83%  
151 2% 83%  
152 2% 81%  
153 2% 79%  
154 6% 77%  
155 1.3% 72%  
156 1.1% 70%  
157 1.3% 69%  
158 40% 68% Median
159 3% 28%  
160 2% 25%  
161 0.9% 23%  
162 8% 22%  
163 1.0% 14%  
164 1.2% 13%  
165 0.1% 12%  
166 8% 12%  
167 1.1% 4%  
168 0.4% 2%  
169 0.1% 2%  
170 0.3% 2%  
171 2% 2%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0% Last Result

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.9%  
124 0.1% 99.8%  
125 0.2% 99.7%  
126 0.2% 99.5%  
127 1.2% 99.4%  
128 0.1% 98%  
129 0.1% 98%  
130 0.1% 98%  
131 1.1% 98%  
132 2% 97%  
133 1.2% 95%  
134 0.1% 94%  
135 0.5% 94%  
136 1.3% 93%  
137 0.5% 92%  
138 2% 91%  
139 0.3% 89%  
140 0.8% 89%  
141 0.5% 88%  
142 1.1% 87%  
143 0.9% 86%  
144 0.8% 85%  
145 2% 85%  
146 2% 82%  
147 1.5% 80%  
148 6% 78%  
149 0.3% 72%  
150 1.2% 72%  
151 0.8% 71%  
152 4% 70%  
153 0.7% 66%  
154 0.4% 65%  
155 42% 65% Median
156 2% 22%  
157 3% 21%  
158 2% 18%  
159 4% 16%  
160 9% 12%  
161 0% 3%  
162 0.6% 3%  
163 0.3% 2%  
164 0.2% 2%  
165 0.1% 2%  
166 0% 2%  
167 2% 2%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0% Last Result

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0.3% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.6%  
125 0.1% 99.5%  
126 0.1% 99.4%  
127 1.2% 99.3%  
128 0.2% 98%  
129 0.1% 98%  
130 1.0% 98%  
131 1.2% 97%  
132 2% 96%  
133 0.4% 94%  
134 0.3% 93%  
135 1.2% 93%  
136 2% 92%  
137 0.6% 89%  
138 0.7% 89%  
139 0.5% 88%  
140 0.3% 88%  
141 0.8% 87%  
142 1.1% 86%  
143 0.9% 85%  
144 1.4% 84%  
145 2% 83%  
146 2% 81%  
147 2% 79%  
148 5% 77%  
149 1.2% 72%  
150 0.8% 70%  
151 2% 70%  
152 2% 68%  
153 0.7% 65%  
154 41% 65% Median
155 4% 24%  
156 3% 20%  
157 0.9% 18%  
158 4% 17%  
159 2% 13%  
160 8% 11%  
161 0.8% 3%  
162 0.3% 2%  
163 0% 2%  
164 0.1% 2%  
165 0% 2%  
166 2% 2%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista Obrero Español

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 100%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.8%  
103 0.2% 99.8%  
104 0.1% 99.6%  
105 2% 99.5%  
106 0.1% 98%  
107 0.1% 98%  
108 0.7% 98%  
109 0.4% 97%  
110 2% 97%  
111 0.6% 94%  
112 50% 94% Median
113 7% 44%  
114 3% 36%  
115 2% 33%  
116 1.4% 32%  
117 8% 30%  
118 2% 22%  
119 1.4% 20%  
120 2% 19%  
121 0.3% 17%  
122 0.8% 17%  
123 0.8% 16%  
124 1.4% 15%  
125 0.4% 14%  
126 0.4% 13%  
127 3% 13%  
128 0.7% 10%  
129 1.0% 9%  
130 1.0% 8%  
131 0.3% 7%  
132 2% 7%  
133 1.4% 5%  
134 0.1% 3%  
135 0.3% 3%  
136 0% 3%  
137 0.2% 3%  
138 1.3% 3%  
139 1.1% 2%  
140 0% 0.5%  
141 0.2% 0.5%  
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.8%  
93 0.3% 99.8%  
94 0.1% 99.6%  
95 0.5% 99.4%  
96 0.2% 98.9%  
97 0.5% 98.7%  
98 2% 98%  
99 0.6% 97%  
100 2% 96%  
101 1.3% 94%  
102 2% 93%  
103 2% 91%  
104 1.0% 89%  
105 1.3% 88%  
106 0.9% 86%  
107 2% 86%  
108 0.4% 84%  
109 1.4% 84%  
110 0.4% 82%  
111 6% 82%  
112 2% 76%  
113 3% 73%  
114 0.8% 71%  
115 1.3% 70%  
116 1.4% 69%  
117 3% 67%  
118 1.2% 64%  
119 0.5% 63%  
120 42% 62% Median
121 2% 20%  
122 0.3% 19%  
123 2% 18%  
124 0.4% 17%  
125 5% 16%  
126 9% 11%  
127 0.2% 2%  
128 0.9% 2%  
129 0.3% 1.1%  
130 0.1% 0.8%  
131 0.1% 0.7%  
132 0% 0.6%  
133 0.5% 0.6%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1% Last Result
138 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 0.5% 99.6%  
81 0.3% 99.0%  
82 0.5% 98.7%  
83 1.1% 98%  
84 0.5% 97%  
85 1.4% 97%  
86 4% 95%  
87 0.6% 91%  
88 0.7% 91%  
89 1.4% 90%  
90 0.2% 89%  
91 2% 88%  
92 1.5% 86%  
93 3% 85%  
94 0.7% 82%  
95 1.0% 81%  
96 3% 80%  
97 0.3% 77%  
98 5% 77%  
99 0.7% 72%  
100 2% 71%  
101 1.5% 68%  
102 2% 67%  
103 1.3% 65%  
104 40% 63% Median
105 3% 23%  
106 0.7% 20%  
107 3% 20%  
108 4% 16%  
109 0.3% 12%  
110 0.4% 12%  
111 0.2% 12%  
112 1.4% 11%  
113 0.8% 10%  
114 0% 9%  
115 9% 9%  
116 0.5% 0.7%  
117 0% 0.2%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations