Opinion Poll by Peter Hajek for ATV, 18–21 December 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 31.0% | 28.8–33.3% | 28.2–34.0% | 27.7–34.5% | 26.7–35.7% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 28.0% | 25.9–30.3% | 25.3–30.9% | 24.8–31.4% | 23.8–32.5% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 26.0% | 24.0–28.2% | 23.4–28.8% | 22.9–29.4% | 21.9–30.5% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.0–7.3% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.5–8.0% | 4.0–8.7% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.1–6.2% | 3.8–6.6% | 3.6–6.9% | 3.2–7.5% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.2–3.3% | 1.0–3.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 59 | 55–64 | 54–65 | 53–67 | 51–69 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 54 | 50–58 | 48–59 | 47–61 | 45–63 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 50 | 47–53 | 45–55 | 44–56 | 42–56 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 11 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 8–15 | 8–16 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 9 | 8–11 | 0–12 | 0–13 | 0–13 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 53 | 2% | 98% | |
| 54 | 3% | 96% | |
| 55 | 5% | 93% | |
| 56 | 10% | 88% | |
| 57 | 6% | 77% | |
| 58 | 13% | 71% | |
| 59 | 10% | 58% | Median |
| 60 | 11% | 48% | |
| 61 | 12% | 37% | |
| 62 | 7% | 25% | Last Result |
| 63 | 7% | 19% | |
| 64 | 4% | 12% | |
| 65 | 3% | 8% | |
| 66 | 2% | 5% | |
| 67 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 48 | 2% | 97% | |
| 49 | 4% | 94% | |
| 50 | 8% | 90% | |
| 51 | 7% | 82% | |
| 52 | 11% | 75% | Last Result |
| 53 | 13% | 64% | |
| 54 | 12% | 51% | Median |
| 55 | 8% | 39% | |
| 56 | 11% | 30% | |
| 57 | 6% | 19% | |
| 58 | 5% | 13% | |
| 59 | 3% | 8% | |
| 60 | 2% | 5% | |
| 61 | 2% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 44 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 45 | 3% | 96% | |
| 46 | 2% | 93% | |
| 47 | 17% | 91% | |
| 48 | 7% | 75% | |
| 49 | 7% | 68% | |
| 50 | 22% | 61% | Median |
| 51 | 11% | 39% | Last Result |
| 52 | 7% | 28% | |
| 53 | 14% | 22% | |
| 54 | 2% | 7% | |
| 55 | 2% | 5% | |
| 56 | 3% | 4% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 9 | 11% | 97% | |
| 10 | 20% | 86% | Last Result |
| 11 | 21% | 66% | Median |
| 12 | 21% | 45% | |
| 13 | 14% | 24% | |
| 14 | 7% | 10% | |
| 15 | 2% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 92% | |
| 2 | 0% | 92% | |
| 3 | 0% | 92% | |
| 4 | 0% | 92% | |
| 5 | 0% | 92% | |
| 6 | 0% | 92% | |
| 7 | 2% | 92% | |
| 8 | 25% | 90% | |
| 9 | 23% | 65% | Median |
| 10 | 22% | 42% | |
| 11 | 12% | 20% | |
| 12 | 6% | 8% | |
| 13 | 2% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 113 | 100% | 108–118 | 107–121 | 106–122 | 104–125 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 109 | 100% | 105–114 | 104–115 | 102–116 | 100–118 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 103 | 100% | 99–108 | 98–110 | 96–111 | 95–113 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 72 | 80 | 0% | 75–84 | 73–85 | 72–87 | 70–88 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 74 | 0% | 69–78 | 68–79 | 67–80 | 64–82 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 71 | 0% | 67–76 | 64–77 | 64–78 | 62–81 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 68 | 0% | 64–73 | 62–74 | 61–75 | 58–78 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 59 | 0% | 55–64 | 54–65 | 53–67 | 51–69 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 54 | 0% | 50–58 | 48–59 | 47–61 | 45–63 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 104 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 105 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 106 | 2% | 98% | |
| 107 | 2% | 96% | |
| 108 | 4% | 94% | |
| 109 | 7% | 90% | |
| 110 | 8% | 82% | |
| 111 | 11% | 74% | |
| 112 | 9% | 64% | |
| 113 | 11% | 54% | Median |
| 114 | 11% | 43% | Last Result |
| 115 | 10% | 33% | |
| 116 | 4% | 23% | |
| 117 | 5% | 18% | |
| 118 | 4% | 13% | |
| 119 | 3% | 10% | |
| 120 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 121 | 2% | 5% | |
| 122 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 123 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 125 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 101 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 102 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 103 | 2% | 97% | |
| 104 | 4% | 95% | |
| 105 | 5% | 91% | |
| 106 | 10% | 86% | |
| 107 | 8% | 76% | |
| 108 | 10% | 68% | |
| 109 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 110 | 8% | 46% | |
| 111 | 9% | 37% | |
| 112 | 11% | 28% | |
| 113 | 6% | 18% | Last Result |
| 114 | 5% | 12% | |
| 115 | 2% | 7% | |
| 116 | 2% | 4% | |
| 117 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 118 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 95 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 96 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 97 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 98 | 3% | 96% | |
| 99 | 8% | 93% | |
| 100 | 6% | 86% | |
| 101 | 7% | 80% | |
| 102 | 9% | 73% | |
| 103 | 17% | 64% | Last Result |
| 104 | 5% | 47% | Median |
| 105 | 7% | 41% | |
| 106 | 14% | 35% | |
| 107 | 10% | 20% | |
| 108 | 2% | 10% | |
| 109 | 3% | 8% | |
| 110 | 3% | 5% | |
| 111 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 112 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 71 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 72 | 1.4% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 73 | 3% | 97% | |
| 74 | 3% | 94% | |
| 75 | 2% | 92% | |
| 76 | 10% | 90% | |
| 77 | 14% | 79% | |
| 78 | 7% | 65% | |
| 79 | 5% | 58% | Median |
| 80 | 17% | 53% | |
| 81 | 9% | 36% | |
| 82 | 7% | 27% | |
| 83 | 6% | 20% | |
| 84 | 8% | 14% | |
| 85 | 3% | 6% | |
| 86 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 87 | 2% | 3% | |
| 88 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 65 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 66 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98% | |
| 68 | 2% | 96% | |
| 69 | 5% | 93% | |
| 70 | 6% | 88% | |
| 71 | 11% | 82% | |
| 72 | 9% | 72% | |
| 73 | 8% | 62% | |
| 74 | 13% | 54% | Median |
| 75 | 10% | 41% | |
| 76 | 8% | 31% | |
| 77 | 10% | 24% | |
| 78 | 5% | 14% | |
| 79 | 4% | 9% | |
| 80 | 2% | 5% | |
| 81 | 2% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 63 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 64 | 3% | 98% | |
| 65 | 2% | 95% | |
| 66 | 2% | 93% | |
| 67 | 8% | 91% | |
| 68 | 16% | 83% | |
| 69 | 11% | 67% | |
| 70 | 4% | 56% | Median |
| 71 | 5% | 52% | |
| 72 | 17% | 47% | Last Result |
| 73 | 12% | 30% | |
| 74 | 6% | 18% | |
| 75 | 2% | 13% | |
| 76 | 4% | 11% | |
| 77 | 4% | 7% | |
| 78 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 80 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 59 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 60 | 0.9% | 98.5% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 2% | 96% | Last Result |
| 63 | 4% | 94% | |
| 64 | 7% | 90% | |
| 65 | 7% | 84% | |
| 66 | 12% | 77% | |
| 67 | 12% | 65% | |
| 68 | 6% | 54% | Median |
| 69 | 13% | 48% | |
| 70 | 10% | 34% | |
| 71 | 6% | 24% | |
| 72 | 5% | 18% | |
| 73 | 6% | 13% | |
| 74 | 3% | 7% | |
| 75 | 2% | 4% | |
| 76 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 53 | 2% | 98% | |
| 54 | 3% | 96% | |
| 55 | 5% | 93% | |
| 56 | 10% | 88% | |
| 57 | 6% | 77% | |
| 58 | 13% | 71% | |
| 59 | 10% | 58% | Median |
| 60 | 11% | 48% | |
| 61 | 12% | 37% | |
| 62 | 7% | 25% | Last Result |
| 63 | 7% | 19% | |
| 64 | 4% | 12% | |
| 65 | 3% | 8% | |
| 66 | 2% | 5% | |
| 67 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 48 | 2% | 97% | |
| 49 | 4% | 94% | |
| 50 | 8% | 90% | |
| 51 | 7% | 82% | |
| 52 | 11% | 75% | Last Result |
| 53 | 13% | 64% | |
| 54 | 12% | 51% | Median |
| 55 | 8% | 39% | |
| 56 | 11% | 30% | |
| 57 | 6% | 19% | |
| 58 | 5% | 13% | |
| 59 | 3% | 8% | |
| 60 | 2% | 5% | |
| 61 | 2% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Peter Hajek
- Commissioner(s): ATV
- Fieldwork period: 18–21 December 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 700
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.76%