Opinion Poll by Unique Research for profil, 15–19 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 31.5% 34.0% 31.4–36.8% 30.6–37.6% 30.0–38.3% 28.7–39.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 26.9% 27.0% 24.6–29.7% 23.9–30.4% 23.3–31.1% 22.2–32.4%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 26.0% 25.0% 22.6–27.6% 22.0–28.3% 21.4–29.0% 20.3–30.3%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 5.3% 6.0% 4.8–7.6% 4.5–8.0% 4.2–8.4% 3.7–9.3%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 3.8% 4.0% 3.1–5.4% 2.8–5.8% 2.6–6.1% 2.2–6.8%
JETZT–Liste Pilz 4.4% 3.0% 2.2–4.2% 2.0–4.6% 1.8–4.9% 1.5–5.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 66 60–71 58–73 57–75 54–77
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 52 47–57 45–59 44–60 42–63
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 51 48 43–53 42–55 41–56 39–59
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 10 11 9–14 8–15 8–16 0–17
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 0 7 0–10 0–10 0–11 0–13
JETZT–Liste Pilz 8 0 0–7 0–8 0–9 0–10

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.7%  
55 0.5% 99.5%  
56 0.8% 99.0%  
57 1.3% 98%  
58 2% 97%  
59 3% 95%  
60 4% 92%  
61 5% 89%  
62 6% 83% Last Result
63 8% 77%  
64 8% 69%  
65 8% 61%  
66 8% 52% Median
67 10% 44%  
68 7% 34%  
69 7% 27%  
70 6% 20%  
71 4% 14%  
72 4% 10%  
73 2% 6%  
74 1.3% 4%  
75 1.3% 3%  
76 0.6% 1.3%  
77 0.3% 0.7%  
78 0.2% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 0.5% 99.6%  
43 0.8% 99.2%  
44 2% 98%  
45 2% 97%  
46 3% 94%  
47 5% 91%  
48 7% 86%  
49 8% 80%  
50 8% 72%  
51 9% 64%  
52 11% 54% Last Result, Median
53 9% 43%  
54 8% 34%  
55 7% 27%  
56 6% 19%  
57 4% 13%  
58 3% 9%  
59 2% 6%  
60 1.5% 4%  
61 0.8% 2%  
62 0.6% 1.2%  
63 0.3% 0.6%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.3% 99.8%  
39 0.5% 99.5%  
40 1.2% 99.0%  
41 2% 98%  
42 3% 96%  
43 4% 93%  
44 6% 89%  
45 8% 83%  
46 9% 75%  
47 10% 66%  
48 9% 56% Median
49 10% 47%  
50 9% 37%  
51 7% 28% Last Result
52 6% 20%  
53 4% 14%  
54 4% 10%  
55 3% 6%  
56 2% 4%  
57 0.6% 2%  
58 0.7% 1.4%  
59 0.4% 0.7%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100%  
1 0% 98.7%  
2 0% 98.7%  
3 0% 98.7%  
4 0% 98.7%  
5 0% 98.7%  
6 0% 98.7%  
7 0.5% 98.7%  
8 5% 98%  
9 10% 94%  
10 16% 83% Last Result
11 18% 67% Median
12 18% 49%  
13 14% 31%  
14 8% 16%  
15 4% 8%  
16 2% 4%  
17 0.9% 1.4%  
18 0.3% 0.5%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100% Last Result
1 0% 54%  
2 0% 54%  
3 0% 54%  
4 0% 54%  
5 0% 54%  
6 0% 54%  
7 8% 54% Median
8 20% 46%  
9 14% 26%  
10 7% 12%  
11 3% 5%  
12 1.2% 2%  
13 0.4% 0.5%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

JETZT–Liste Pilz

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Median
1 0% 12%  
2 0% 12%  
3 0% 12%  
4 0% 12%  
5 0% 12%  
6 0% 12%  
7 3% 12%  
8 5% 9% Last Result
9 3% 4%  
10 1.0% 1.2%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 114 118 100% 111–124 109–126 107–128 104–131
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 113 114 100% 107–121 105–122 104–124 100–127
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 103 100 96% 94–107 92–109 90–110 87–113
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 72 82 2% 75–88 73–90 72–91 68–94
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 77 0.1% 71–83 69–85 67–86 64–89
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 70 0% 64–77 62–79 61–80 58–83
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 68 0% 62–75 59–76 58–78 55–81
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 66 0% 60–71 58–73 57–75 54–77
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 52 57 0% 50–63 48–65 47–66 44–69
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 52 0% 47–57 45–59 44–60 42–63

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.3% 99.7%  
105 0.3% 99.4%  
106 0.5% 99.1%  
107 1.3% 98.6%  
108 1.2% 97%  
109 2% 96%  
110 3% 94%  
111 4% 91%  
112 3% 88%  
113 5% 84%  
114 7% 79% Last Result
115 6% 72%  
116 7% 66%  
117 9% 59%  
118 7% 51% Median
119 8% 44%  
120 6% 36%  
121 7% 30%  
122 4% 23%  
123 4% 19%  
124 5% 14%  
125 2% 9%  
126 2% 7%  
127 2% 5%  
128 1.3% 3%  
129 0.9% 2%  
130 0.4% 0.9%  
131 0.2% 0.5%  
132 0.2% 0.3%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.8%  
100 0.2% 99.7%  
101 0.4% 99.5%  
102 0.7% 99.1%  
103 0.7% 98%  
104 1.2% 98%  
105 2% 96%  
106 2% 95%  
107 3% 93%  
108 4% 89%  
109 5% 85%  
110 5% 81%  
111 7% 75%  
112 5% 68%  
113 9% 63% Last Result
114 6% 53% Median
115 6% 47%  
116 10% 41%  
117 5% 31%  
118 7% 26%  
119 6% 20%  
120 2% 13%  
121 5% 11%  
122 1.4% 6%  
123 1.3% 4%  
124 2% 3%  
125 0.4% 1.5%  
126 0.5% 1.1%  
127 0.3% 0.6%  
128 0.1% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.2% 99.8%  
87 0.3% 99.7%  
88 0.5% 99.3%  
89 0.7% 98.9%  
90 0.9% 98%  
91 2% 97%  
92 2% 96% Majority
93 3% 94%  
94 4% 91%  
95 5% 87%  
96 6% 82%  
97 6% 76%  
98 8% 70%  
99 7% 62%  
100 7% 55% Median
101 8% 47%  
102 6% 39%  
103 8% 33% Last Result
104 5% 26%  
105 4% 20%  
106 4% 16%  
107 3% 11%  
108 2% 8%  
109 2% 6%  
110 2% 4%  
111 0.8% 2%  
112 0.4% 1.1%  
113 0.3% 0.7%  
114 0.2% 0.4%  
115 0.1% 0.3%  
116 0.1% 0.2%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.2% 99.6%  
69 0.3% 99.4%  
70 0.5% 99.1%  
71 0.7% 98.7%  
72 1.1% 98% Last Result
73 2% 97%  
74 3% 95%  
75 3% 92%  
76 4% 89%  
77 5% 85%  
78 5% 80%  
79 6% 75%  
80 9% 69%  
81 7% 60%  
82 8% 54%  
83 8% 46%  
84 7% 38% Median
85 8% 31%  
86 5% 23%  
87 5% 18%  
88 4% 13%  
89 3% 9%  
90 2% 6%  
91 1.4% 4%  
92 1.0% 2% Majority
93 0.5% 1.1%  
94 0.3% 0.6%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.7%  
65 0.4% 99.5%  
66 0.8% 99.1%  
67 0.8% 98%  
68 1.1% 97%  
69 2% 96%  
70 2% 95%  
71 4% 92%  
72 4% 89% Last Result
73 6% 85%  
74 7% 79%  
75 7% 72%  
76 8% 65%  
77 9% 57% Median
78 8% 48%  
79 8% 40%  
80 8% 32%  
81 6% 23%  
82 5% 18%  
83 4% 12%  
84 3% 8%  
85 2% 5%  
86 1.0% 3%  
87 0.8% 2%  
88 0.4% 1.1%  
89 0.3% 0.7%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1% Majority
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.4% 99.5%  
59 0.6% 99.2%  
60 0.8% 98.6%  
61 2% 98%  
62 2% 96% Last Result
63 4% 94%  
64 3% 91%  
65 5% 88%  
66 5% 83%  
67 7% 78%  
68 6% 71%  
69 7% 65%  
70 9% 57%  
71 7% 49%  
72 7% 41%  
73 6% 34% Median
74 6% 28%  
75 7% 23%  
76 5% 16%  
77 3% 11%  
78 2% 8%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.3% 3%  
81 1.1% 2%  
82 0.4% 1.0%  
83 0.2% 0.6%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.3% 99.6%  
56 0.4% 99.3%  
57 1.1% 98.8%  
58 0.8% 98%  
59 2% 97%  
60 2% 95%  
61 2% 93%  
62 6% 91% Last Result
63 3% 84%  
64 7% 82%  
65 6% 75%  
66 5% 68%  
67 10% 63%  
68 6% 53%  
69 7% 47%  
70 9% 41% Median
71 5% 32%  
72 7% 27%  
73 5% 20%  
74 4% 15%  
75 4% 11%  
76 2% 7%  
77 2% 4%  
78 1.3% 3%  
79 0.7% 2%  
80 0.4% 0.9%  
81 0.2% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.7%  
55 0.5% 99.5%  
56 0.8% 99.0%  
57 1.3% 98%  
58 2% 97%  
59 3% 95%  
60 4% 92%  
61 5% 89%  
62 6% 83% Last Result
63 8% 77%  
64 8% 69%  
65 8% 61%  
66 8% 52% Median
67 10% 44%  
68 7% 34%  
69 7% 27%  
70 6% 20%  
71 4% 14%  
72 4% 10%  
73 2% 6%  
74 1.3% 4%  
75 1.3% 3%  
76 0.6% 1.3%  
77 0.3% 0.7%  
78 0.2% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.3% 99.8%  
45 0.6% 99.5%  
46 1.0% 98.9%  
47 1.3% 98%  
48 2% 97%  
49 3% 94%  
50 3% 91%  
51 4% 88%  
52 7% 84% Last Result
53 6% 78%  
54 6% 72%  
55 7% 66%  
56 7% 59%  
57 8% 52%  
58 7% 44%  
59 7% 37% Median
60 7% 29%  
61 5% 23%  
62 6% 18%  
63 3% 12%  
64 4% 9%  
65 2% 5%  
66 1.5% 4%  
67 0.8% 2%  
68 0.7% 1.4%  
69 0.3% 0.7%  
70 0.2% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 0.5% 99.6%  
43 0.8% 99.2%  
44 2% 98%  
45 2% 97%  
46 3% 94%  
47 5% 91%  
48 7% 86%  
49 8% 80%  
50 8% 72%  
51 9% 64%  
52 11% 54% Last Result, Median
53 9% 43%  
54 8% 34%  
55 7% 27%  
56 6% 19%  
57 4% 13%  
58 3% 9%  
59 2% 6%  
60 1.5% 4%  
61 0.8% 2%  
62 0.6% 1.2%  
63 0.3% 0.6%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations