Opinion Poll by Research Affairs for ÖSTERREICH, 18–24 January 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 31.0% | 29.2–32.9% | 28.6–33.5% | 28.2–33.9% | 27.3–34.9% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 27.0% | 25.2–28.8% | 24.7–29.4% | 24.3–29.8% | 23.5–30.7% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 26.0% | 24.2–27.8% | 23.8–28.3% | 23.4–28.8% | 22.5–29.7% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 62 | 58–65 | 56–67 | 55–68 | 53–69 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 53 | 49–57 | 48–59 | 47–60 | 46–62 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 51 | 47–56 | 46–57 | 45–58 | 44–59 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 12 | 10–14 | 9–14 | 9–15 | 8–16 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 8 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–11 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0–7 | 0–8 | 0–9 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 54 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98% | |
| 56 | 2% | 96% | |
| 57 | 4% | 94% | |
| 58 | 10% | 90% | |
| 59 | 11% | 80% | |
| 60 | 7% | 69% | |
| 61 | 6% | 62% | |
| 62 | 19% | 56% | Last Result, Median |
| 63 | 15% | 37% | |
| 64 | 10% | 21% | |
| 65 | 2% | 11% | |
| 66 | 3% | 10% | |
| 67 | 3% | 6% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | |
| 69 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 48 | 3% | 97% | |
| 49 | 6% | 94% | |
| 50 | 9% | 88% | |
| 51 | 7% | 79% | |
| 52 | 9% | 72% | Last Result |
| 53 | 15% | 63% | Median |
| 54 | 14% | 48% | |
| 55 | 11% | 34% | |
| 56 | 10% | 23% | |
| 57 | 5% | 13% | |
| 58 | 3% | 9% | |
| 59 | 3% | 6% | |
| 60 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 61 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 45 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 46 | 4% | 97% | |
| 47 | 6% | 94% | |
| 48 | 8% | 87% | |
| 49 | 9% | 79% | |
| 50 | 13% | 69% | |
| 51 | 9% | 56% | Last Result, Median |
| 52 | 10% | 48% | |
| 53 | 7% | 37% | |
| 54 | 9% | 30% | |
| 55 | 9% | 21% | |
| 56 | 6% | 13% | |
| 57 | 4% | 7% | |
| 58 | 2% | 3% | |
| 59 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 5% | 98.8% | |
| 10 | 18% | 93% | Last Result |
| 11 | 23% | 75% | |
| 12 | 24% | 53% | Median |
| 13 | 19% | 29% | |
| 14 | 7% | 10% | |
| 15 | 3% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 48% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 52% | |
| 2 | 0% | 52% | |
| 3 | 0% | 52% | |
| 4 | 0% | 52% | |
| 5 | 0% | 52% | |
| 6 | 0% | 52% | |
| 7 | 2% | 52% | |
| 8 | 30% | 50% | Median |
| 9 | 13% | 20% | |
| 10 | 6% | 7% | |
| 11 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 6% | |
| 7 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 8 | 4% | 4% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 115 | 100% | 110–120 | 108–121 | 106–122 | 103–125 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 113 | 100% | 107–118 | 106–119 | 104–120 | 102–123 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 105 | 99.9% | 99–110 | 98–112 | 96–113 | 94–115 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 72 | 77 | 0% | 72–83 | 70–84 | 69–85 | 67–87 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 73 | 0% | 69–77 | 67–78 | 66–80 | 64–82 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 69 | 0% | 64–75 | 63–76 | 62–77 | 59–79 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 66 | 0% | 60–71 | 58–72 | 58–73 | 56–76 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 62 | 0% | 58–65 | 56–67 | 55–68 | 53–69 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 53 | 0% | 49–57 | 48–59 | 47–60 | 46–62 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 104 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 105 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 106 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 107 | 2% | 97% | |
| 108 | 3% | 96% | |
| 109 | 3% | 93% | |
| 110 | 5% | 90% | |
| 111 | 5% | 85% | |
| 112 | 7% | 80% | |
| 113 | 12% | 73% | |
| 114 | 10% | 62% | Last Result |
| 115 | 8% | 52% | Median |
| 116 | 12% | 43% | |
| 117 | 9% | 32% | |
| 118 | 6% | 22% | |
| 119 | 5% | 16% | |
| 120 | 4% | 12% | |
| 121 | 4% | 8% | |
| 122 | 2% | 4% | |
| 123 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 124 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 102 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 103 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 104 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 105 | 2% | 97% | |
| 106 | 2% | 95% | |
| 107 | 6% | 93% | |
| 108 | 8% | 87% | |
| 109 | 5% | 79% | |
| 110 | 9% | 75% | |
| 111 | 7% | 66% | |
| 112 | 5% | 58% | |
| 113 | 5% | 54% | Last Result, Median |
| 114 | 9% | 48% | |
| 115 | 7% | 39% | |
| 116 | 8% | 32% | |
| 117 | 10% | 25% | |
| 118 | 6% | 15% | |
| 119 | 3% | 8% | |
| 120 | 3% | 5% | |
| 121 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 122 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 123 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 94 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 95 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 96 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 97 | 2% | 97% | |
| 98 | 3% | 95% | |
| 99 | 5% | 92% | |
| 100 | 7% | 87% | |
| 101 | 6% | 80% | |
| 102 | 10% | 73% | |
| 103 | 6% | 63% | Last Result |
| 104 | 7% | 57% | Median |
| 105 | 7% | 51% | |
| 106 | 6% | 44% | |
| 107 | 7% | 38% | |
| 108 | 8% | 31% | |
| 109 | 6% | 23% | |
| 110 | 8% | 17% | |
| 111 | 3% | 10% | |
| 112 | 3% | 7% | |
| 113 | 2% | 4% | |
| 114 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 68 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 69 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 70 | 3% | 97% | |
| 71 | 3% | 94% | |
| 72 | 4% | 91% | Last Result |
| 73 | 8% | 86% | |
| 74 | 7% | 78% | |
| 75 | 9% | 72% | |
| 76 | 8% | 63% | |
| 77 | 6% | 55% | |
| 78 | 7% | 49% | |
| 79 | 7% | 42% | |
| 80 | 5% | 36% | |
| 81 | 10% | 31% | |
| 82 | 5% | 21% | Median |
| 83 | 6% | 15% | |
| 84 | 4% | 9% | |
| 85 | 3% | 5% | |
| 86 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 65 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 66 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 67 | 2% | 97% | |
| 68 | 4% | 95% | |
| 69 | 6% | 91% | |
| 70 | 8% | 85% | |
| 71 | 9% | 77% | |
| 72 | 8% | 68% | Last Result |
| 73 | 15% | 60% | |
| 74 | 11% | 45% | Median |
| 75 | 13% | 34% | |
| 76 | 9% | 21% | |
| 77 | 6% | 12% | |
| 78 | 2% | 7% | |
| 79 | 2% | 4% | |
| 80 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 81 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 61 | 0.9% | 98.6% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 63 | 4% | 96% | |
| 64 | 4% | 92% | |
| 65 | 7% | 89% | |
| 66 | 11% | 82% | |
| 67 | 8% | 71% | |
| 68 | 8% | 62% | |
| 69 | 9% | 55% | |
| 70 | 6% | 45% | |
| 71 | 4% | 39% | |
| 72 | 8% | 35% | |
| 73 | 8% | 28% | Median |
| 74 | 4% | 20% | |
| 75 | 8% | 15% | |
| 76 | 5% | 8% | |
| 77 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 1.5% | 99.4% | |
| 58 | 3% | 98% | |
| 59 | 4% | 95% | |
| 60 | 1.4% | 91% | |
| 61 | 3% | 90% | |
| 62 | 14% | 87% | Last Result |
| 63 | 10% | 72% | |
| 64 | 6% | 63% | |
| 65 | 1.4% | 56% | |
| 66 | 6% | 55% | |
| 67 | 15% | 49% | |
| 68 | 8% | 34% | |
| 69 | 2% | 27% | |
| 70 | 2% | 25% | Median |
| 71 | 13% | 23% | |
| 72 | 7% | 10% | |
| 73 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 75 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 54 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98% | |
| 56 | 2% | 96% | |
| 57 | 4% | 94% | |
| 58 | 10% | 90% | |
| 59 | 11% | 80% | |
| 60 | 7% | 69% | |
| 61 | 6% | 62% | |
| 62 | 19% | 56% | Last Result, Median |
| 63 | 15% | 37% | |
| 64 | 10% | 21% | |
| 65 | 2% | 11% | |
| 66 | 3% | 10% | |
| 67 | 3% | 6% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | |
| 69 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 48 | 3% | 97% | |
| 49 | 6% | 94% | |
| 50 | 9% | 88% | |
| 51 | 7% | 79% | |
| 52 | 9% | 72% | Last Result |
| 53 | 15% | 63% | Median |
| 54 | 14% | 48% | |
| 55 | 11% | 34% | |
| 56 | 10% | 23% | |
| 57 | 5% | 13% | |
| 58 | 3% | 9% | |
| 59 | 3% | 6% | |
| 60 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 61 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Research Affairs
- Commissioner(s): ÖSTERREICH
- Fieldwork period: 18–24 January 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 997
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.90%