Opinion Poll by Unique Research for profil, 11–16 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 31.5% 33.0% 30.4–35.8% 29.6–36.6% 29.0–37.3% 27.8–38.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 26.9% 26.0% 23.6–28.6% 22.9–29.4% 22.3–30.0% 21.2–31.3%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 26.0% 26.0% 23.6–28.6% 22.9–29.4% 22.3–30.0% 21.2–31.3%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 5.3% 7.0% 5.7–8.7% 5.4–9.2% 5.1–9.6% 4.5–10.5%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 3.8% 5.0% 3.9–6.5% 3.7–6.9% 3.4–7.3% 3.0–8.1%
JETZT–Liste Pilz 4.4% 2.0% 1.4–3.1% 1.2–3.4% 1.1–3.6% 0.9–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 62 57–68 56–69 55–71 53–73
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 50 45–53 43–55 42–57 40–60
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 51 49 45–55 44–56 42–57 40–60
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 10 13 10–16 10–17 9–18 8–20
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 0 9 0–12 0–12 0–13 0–15
JETZT–Liste Pilz 8 0 0 0 0 0–7

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.8%  
53 0.5% 99.6%  
54 0.7% 99.1%  
55 2% 98%  
56 3% 96%  
57 4% 93%  
58 7% 90%  
59 6% 83%  
60 10% 77%  
61 10% 67%  
62 10% 57% Last Result, Median
63 7% 46%  
64 8% 39%  
65 10% 31%  
66 5% 21%  
67 5% 16%  
68 4% 11%  
69 2% 7%  
70 2% 5%  
71 1.3% 3%  
72 0.8% 2%  
73 0.3% 0.8%  
74 0.3% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.6%  
41 1.0% 99.2%  
42 2% 98%  
43 2% 96%  
44 4% 95%  
45 2% 91%  
46 6% 89%  
47 9% 82%  
48 6% 73%  
49 10% 67%  
50 15% 57% Median
51 16% 42%  
52 6% 26% Last Result
53 10% 20%  
54 1.5% 10%  
55 5% 9%  
56 0.7% 4%  
57 1.4% 3%  
58 1.0% 2%  
59 0.2% 0.9%  
60 0.4% 0.6%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.6% 99.6%  
41 0.6% 99.0%  
42 1.2% 98%  
43 2% 97%  
44 2% 95%  
45 7% 93%  
46 12% 86%  
47 8% 74%  
48 11% 66%  
49 15% 55% Median
50 3% 40%  
51 11% 37% Last Result
52 8% 27%  
53 3% 18%  
54 5% 15%  
55 5% 10%  
56 1.1% 5%  
57 2% 4%  
58 1.4% 2%  
59 0.2% 1.0%  
60 0.5% 0.8%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0.1% 99.9%  
8 0.8% 99.9%  
9 3% 99.1%  
10 7% 97% Last Result
11 10% 89%  
12 14% 79%  
13 19% 64% Median
14 18% 45%  
15 14% 27%  
16 6% 13%  
17 4% 7%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.8% 1.4%  
20 0.5% 0.6%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100% Last Result
1 0% 88%  
2 0% 88%  
3 0% 88%  
4 0% 88%  
5 0% 88%  
6 0% 88%  
7 7% 88%  
8 22% 81%  
9 22% 59% Median
10 15% 37%  
11 10% 22%  
12 7% 12%  
13 3% 5%  
14 0.8% 2%  
15 0.5% 0.8%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

JETZT–Liste Pilz

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Median
1 0% 0.8%  
2 0% 0.8%  
3 0% 0.8%  
4 0% 0.8%  
5 0% 0.8%  
6 0% 0.8%  
7 0.4% 0.8%  
8 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 113 111 100% 106–118 105–120 103–122 100–124
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 114 112 100% 107–117 105–119 103–121 100–125
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 103 99 94% 93–104 91–105 90–106 88–110
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 72 84 5% 79–90 78–92 77–93 73–95
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 76 0% 71–81 69–83 67–84 65–87
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 70 0% 66–76 65–79 63–80 60–83
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 72 0% 65–77 63–78 61–80 58–83
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 62 0% 57–68 56–69 55–71 53–73
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 50 0% 45–53 43–55 42–57 40–60

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0.1% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.3% 99.8%  
101 0.2% 99.4%  
102 1.0% 99.2%  
103 1.2% 98%  
104 1.4% 97%  
105 4% 96%  
106 3% 92%  
107 6% 88%  
108 7% 83%  
109 9% 75%  
110 8% 66%  
111 11% 59% Median
112 6% 47%  
113 10% 41% Last Result
114 7% 31%  
115 5% 24%  
116 5% 20%  
117 4% 15%  
118 2% 10%  
119 2% 9%  
120 3% 7%  
121 0.9% 4%  
122 0.7% 3%  
123 1.2% 2%  
124 0.6% 1.0%  
125 0.2% 0.5%  
126 0.1% 0.3%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.3% 99.8%  
101 0.5% 99.5%  
102 0.7% 99.0%  
103 1.3% 98%  
104 1.1% 97%  
105 1.3% 96%  
106 4% 95%  
107 3% 90%  
108 7% 87%  
109 11% 80%  
110 7% 69%  
111 6% 62%  
112 8% 55% Median
113 9% 47%  
114 6% 38% Last Result
115 10% 32%  
116 9% 22%  
117 4% 13%  
118 3% 9%  
119 1.4% 6%  
120 1.1% 4%  
121 1.0% 3%  
122 0.8% 2%  
123 0.6% 2%  
124 0.3% 0.9%  
125 0.4% 0.6%  
126 0.1% 0.2%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.7%  
88 0.9% 99.5%  
89 0.7% 98.6%  
90 2% 98%  
91 2% 96%  
92 3% 94% Majority
93 3% 92%  
94 3% 89%  
95 4% 85%  
96 5% 82%  
97 11% 76%  
98 6% 66%  
99 13% 59% Median
100 12% 46%  
101 7% 34%  
102 9% 27%  
103 5% 17% Last Result
104 5% 12%  
105 3% 8%  
106 2% 5%  
107 1.0% 2%  
108 0.3% 1.3%  
109 0.3% 1.0%  
110 0.2% 0.6%  
111 0.2% 0.4%  
112 0.1% 0.3%  
113 0% 0.2%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
73 0.2% 99.6%  
74 0.3% 99.3%  
75 0.3% 99.0%  
76 1.0% 98.7%  
77 2% 98%  
78 3% 95%  
79 5% 92%  
80 5% 87%  
81 9% 82%  
82 7% 73%  
83 12% 65%  
84 14% 54% Median
85 7% 40%  
86 11% 34%  
87 5% 23%  
88 4% 18%  
89 3% 14%  
90 3% 11%  
91 2% 8%  
92 1.4% 5% Majority
93 2% 4%  
94 0.7% 2%  
95 0.9% 1.3%  
96 0.2% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.8%  
65 0.5% 99.7%  
66 0.3% 99.2%  
67 1.5% 98.9%  
68 0.9% 97%  
69 3% 96%  
70 3% 93%  
71 10% 91%  
72 3% 81% Last Result
73 11% 78%  
74 5% 67%  
75 13% 63% Median
76 7% 50%  
77 13% 43%  
78 7% 30%  
79 6% 23%  
80 3% 17%  
81 4% 14%  
82 3% 9%  
83 2% 6%  
84 2% 4%  
85 0.7% 2%  
86 0.9% 2%  
87 0.2% 0.6%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 0.2% 99.7%  
60 0.3% 99.5%  
61 0.4% 99.2%  
62 0.9% 98.9% Last Result
63 1.4% 98%  
64 1.1% 97%  
65 3% 96%  
66 7% 93%  
67 5% 85%  
68 8% 80%  
69 14% 72%  
70 9% 58%  
71 9% 49% Median
72 12% 40%  
73 3% 29%  
74 8% 25%  
75 3% 17%  
76 4% 14%  
77 2% 10%  
78 2% 7%  
79 2% 5%  
80 0.8% 3%  
81 1.2% 2%  
82 0.5% 1.0%  
83 0.2% 0.5%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.8%  
58 0.2% 99.7%  
59 0.6% 99.5%  
60 1.3% 98.9%  
61 0.7% 98%  
62 0.9% 97% Last Result
63 3% 96%  
64 2% 93%  
65 2% 91%  
66 4% 90%  
67 5% 85%  
68 5% 80%  
69 7% 76%  
70 10% 69%  
71 6% 58%  
72 11% 52% Median
73 8% 41%  
74 9% 33%  
75 7% 24%  
76 6% 17%  
77 3% 11%  
78 4% 8%  
79 1.4% 4%  
80 1.2% 3%  
81 1.0% 2%  
82 0.2% 0.7%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.8%  
53 0.5% 99.6%  
54 0.7% 99.1%  
55 2% 98%  
56 3% 96%  
57 4% 93%  
58 7% 90%  
59 6% 83%  
60 10% 77%  
61 10% 67%  
62 10% 57% Last Result, Median
63 7% 46%  
64 8% 39%  
65 10% 31%  
66 5% 21%  
67 5% 16%  
68 4% 11%  
69 2% 7%  
70 2% 5%  
71 1.3% 3%  
72 0.8% 2%  
73 0.3% 0.8%  
74 0.3% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.6%  
41 1.0% 99.2%  
42 2% 98%  
43 2% 96%  
44 4% 95%  
45 2% 91%  
46 6% 89%  
47 9% 82%  
48 6% 73%  
49 10% 67%  
50 15% 57% Median
51 16% 42%  
52 6% 26% Last Result
53 10% 20%  
54 1.5% 10%  
55 5% 9%  
56 0.7% 4%  
57 1.4% 3%  
58 1.0% 2%  
59 0.2% 0.9%  
60 0.4% 0.6%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations