Opinion Poll by Research Affairs for ÖSTERREICH, 1–7 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 31.5% 32.0% 30.2–33.9% 29.6–34.4% 29.2–34.9% 28.3–35.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 26.9% 27.0% 25.3–28.8% 24.8–29.3% 24.4–29.8% 23.6–30.7%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 26.0% 24.0% 22.4–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.6–26.7% 20.8–27.6%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 5.3% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 3.8% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.8%
JETZT–Liste Pilz 4.4% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 62 59–66 57–68 56–69 54–71
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 53 49–57 47–59 47–59 45–61
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 51 47 43–51 42–53 41–53 40–55
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 10 12 10–13 9–14 9–15 8–16
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 0 7 0–9 0–9 0–10 0–11
JETZT–Liste Pilz 8 0 0 0 0–8 0–8

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.6% 99.7%  
55 0.7% 99.1%  
56 1.4% 98%  
57 2% 97%  
58 5% 95%  
59 7% 90%  
60 13% 83%  
61 10% 70%  
62 11% 60% Last Result, Median
63 11% 48%  
64 10% 38%  
65 10% 28%  
66 8% 18%  
67 3% 10%  
68 3% 7%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.9% 2%  
71 0.3% 0.8%  
72 0.2% 0.5%  
73 0.1% 0.3%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 0.6% 99.7%  
46 0.9% 99.0%  
47 3% 98%  
48 3% 95%  
49 9% 92%  
50 10% 83%  
51 12% 72%  
52 9% 60% Last Result
53 11% 51% Median
54 8% 41%  
55 9% 32%  
56 9% 23%  
57 6% 14%  
58 3% 9%  
59 5% 6%  
60 0.8% 2%  
61 0.5% 0.8%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.8% 99.6%  
41 3% 98.8%  
42 3% 96%  
43 6% 93%  
44 8% 87%  
45 10% 79%  
46 14% 69%  
47 12% 55% Median
48 11% 43%  
49 12% 32%  
50 7% 20%  
51 3% 13% Last Result
52 5% 10%  
53 4% 5%  
54 0.8% 1.5%  
55 0.4% 0.7%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0.1% 99.9%  
8 1.4% 99.9%  
9 8% 98%  
10 17% 90% Last Result
11 21% 73%  
12 25% 51% Median
13 18% 26%  
14 5% 8%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.7% 0.8%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100% Last Result
1 0% 54%  
2 0% 54%  
3 0% 54%  
4 0% 54%  
5 0% 54%  
6 0% 54%  
7 10% 54% Median
8 26% 45%  
9 14% 19%  
10 4% 5%  
11 0.8% 1.0%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

JETZT–Liste Pilz

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0% 4%  
4 0% 4%  
5 0% 4%  
6 0% 4%  
7 2% 4%  
8 2% 3% Last Result
9 0.3% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 114 115 100% 110–122 108–124 106–125 104–127
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 113 109 100% 104–115 102–117 101–118 98–120
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 103 100 97% 94–107 93–108 91–109 89–111
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 72 78 0% 73–83 71–86 70–87 67–90
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 74 0% 70–79 68–80 67–81 64–83
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 69 0% 62–74 61–76 60–77 59–79
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 67 0% 62–72 60–74 59–75 56–78
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 62 0% 59–66 57–68 56–69 54–71
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 53 0% 49–57 47–59 47–59 45–61

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.3% 99.8%  
105 0.7% 99.4%  
106 2% 98.7%  
107 1.3% 97%  
108 1.5% 96%  
109 4% 94%  
110 7% 91%  
111 7% 84%  
112 6% 77%  
113 9% 71%  
114 6% 62% Last Result
115 10% 56% Median
116 7% 46%  
117 8% 39%  
118 9% 31%  
119 5% 23%  
120 4% 18%  
121 2% 13%  
122 4% 12%  
123 2% 8%  
124 2% 6%  
125 2% 3%  
126 0.5% 1.0%  
127 0.3% 0.5%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0.1% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.4% 99.8%  
99 0.3% 99.4%  
100 0.9% 99.1%  
101 2% 98%  
102 2% 97%  
103 3% 95%  
104 4% 92%  
105 6% 88%  
106 9% 82%  
107 12% 74%  
108 6% 62%  
109 9% 55% Median
110 5% 47%  
111 6% 41%  
112 5% 35%  
113 10% 31% Last Result
114 6% 20%  
115 6% 14%  
116 2% 9%  
117 4% 7%  
118 1.5% 3%  
119 0.7% 1.5%  
120 0.4% 0.8%  
121 0.2% 0.4%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0.1% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.2% 99.9%  
89 0.4% 99.7%  
90 0.7% 99.4%  
91 1.5% 98.7%  
92 2% 97% Majority
93 5% 96%  
94 4% 91%  
95 5% 87%  
96 6% 81%  
97 10% 76%  
98 9% 66%  
99 5% 57%  
100 11% 52% Median
101 7% 41%  
102 5% 35%  
103 7% 30% Last Result
104 5% 22%  
105 2% 17%  
106 4% 15%  
107 6% 11%  
108 2% 5%  
109 1.2% 3%  
110 2% 2%  
111 0.3% 0.6%  
112 0.2% 0.3%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.5% 99.9%  
68 0.5% 99.4%  
69 0.7% 98.9%  
70 1.4% 98%  
71 2% 97%  
72 2% 95% Last Result
73 3% 92%  
74 5% 89%  
75 5% 84%  
76 10% 79%  
77 10% 69%  
78 12% 59%  
79 6% 47%  
80 11% 42%  
81 7% 30% Median
82 7% 23%  
83 6% 16%  
84 3% 10%  
85 2% 7%  
86 2% 5%  
87 1.4% 3%  
88 0.6% 1.4%  
89 0.2% 0.8%  
90 0.4% 0.5%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0% Majority

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.4% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.5%  
66 0.5% 99.2%  
67 2% 98.7%  
68 3% 97%  
69 2% 94%  
70 10% 91%  
71 9% 82%  
72 8% 73% Last Result
73 11% 65%  
74 9% 54% Median
75 9% 44%  
76 10% 35%  
77 10% 25%  
78 5% 15%  
79 3% 10%  
80 4% 7%  
81 0.8% 3%  
82 1.2% 2%  
83 0.7% 1.1%  
84 0.1% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.8%  
59 0.7% 99.6%  
60 2% 99.0%  
61 3% 97%  
62 6% 94% Last Result
63 2% 88%  
64 3% 86%  
65 3% 84%  
66 8% 81%  
67 7% 73%  
68 14% 65%  
69 10% 52%  
70 10% 41%  
71 5% 32%  
72 5% 26% Median
73 5% 21%  
74 6% 16%  
75 3% 10%  
76 3% 7%  
77 2% 4%  
78 1.1% 2%  
79 0.5% 0.8%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 0.4% 99.8%  
57 0.7% 99.4%  
58 1.2% 98.7%  
59 2% 98%  
60 2% 96%  
61 2% 94%  
62 4% 92% Last Result
63 8% 87%  
64 6% 80%  
65 10% 74%  
66 9% 64%  
67 7% 55%  
68 13% 49%  
69 11% 35% Median
70 7% 25%  
71 5% 17%  
72 4% 12%  
73 2% 8%  
74 2% 5%  
75 1.4% 4%  
76 1.0% 2%  
77 0.7% 1.4%  
78 0.5% 0.7%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.6% 99.7%  
55 0.7% 99.1%  
56 1.4% 98%  
57 2% 97%  
58 5% 95%  
59 7% 90%  
60 13% 83%  
61 10% 70%  
62 11% 60% Last Result, Median
63 11% 48%  
64 10% 38%  
65 10% 28%  
66 8% 18%  
67 3% 10%  
68 3% 7%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.9% 2%  
71 0.3% 0.8%  
72 0.2% 0.5%  
73 0.1% 0.3%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 0.6% 99.7%  
46 0.9% 99.0%  
47 3% 98%  
48 3% 95%  
49 9% 92%  
50 10% 83%  
51 12% 72%  
52 9% 60% Last Result
53 11% 51% Median
54 8% 41%  
55 9% 32%  
56 9% 23%  
57 6% 14%  
58 3% 9%  
59 5% 6%  
60 0.8% 2%  
61 0.5% 0.8%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations