Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 6–8 March 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 33.0% | 30.9–35.1% | 30.3–35.8% | 29.8–36.3% | 28.8–37.3% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 29.0% | 27.0–31.1% | 26.4–31.7% | 26.0–32.2% | 25.0–33.3% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 24.0% | 22.2–26.0% | 21.7–26.6% | 21.2–27.1% | 20.3–28.1% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 8.1% | 6.9–9.4% | 6.6–9.8% | 6.4–10.2% | 5.9–10.8% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.2% | 2.0–4.4% | 1.7–4.9% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.2% | 1.0–3.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 64 | 60–68 | 59–69 | 58–70 | 56–73 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 56 | 53–61 | 51–61 | 50–63 | 48–64 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 47 | 43–51 | 42–52 | 41–53 | 39–54 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 15 | 13–18 | 13–19 | 12–19 | 11–21 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–7 | 0–8 | 0–9 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 1.1% | 98.8% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98% | |
| 59 | 2% | 95% | |
| 60 | 7% | 93% | |
| 61 | 10% | 87% | |
| 62 | 12% | 77% | Last Result |
| 63 | 12% | 65% | |
| 64 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 65 | 12% | 46% | |
| 66 | 8% | 33% | |
| 67 | 11% | 25% | |
| 68 | 5% | 14% | |
| 69 | 6% | 9% | |
| 70 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 71 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 72 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 49 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 50 | 1.1% | 98.5% | |
| 51 | 4% | 97% | |
| 52 | 2% | 93% | Last Result |
| 53 | 13% | 91% | |
| 54 | 7% | 79% | |
| 55 | 8% | 72% | |
| 56 | 20% | 64% | Median |
| 57 | 5% | 44% | |
| 58 | 14% | 39% | |
| 59 | 8% | 25% | |
| 60 | 6% | 17% | |
| 61 | 8% | 12% | |
| 62 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 63 | 2% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 41 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 42 | 5% | 97% | |
| 43 | 5% | 91% | |
| 44 | 8% | 86% | |
| 45 | 15% | 78% | |
| 46 | 9% | 62% | |
| 47 | 17% | 53% | Median |
| 48 | 10% | 36% | |
| 49 | 10% | 26% | |
| 50 | 6% | 16% | |
| 51 | 5% | 10% | Last Result |
| 52 | 3% | 6% | |
| 53 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 54 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 13 | 9% | 95% | |
| 14 | 18% | 86% | |
| 15 | 19% | 68% | Median |
| 16 | 21% | 49% | |
| 17 | 14% | 28% | |
| 18 | 8% | 14% | |
| 19 | 4% | 6% | |
| 20 | 2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 6% | |
| 7 | 2% | 6% | |
| 8 | 3% | 4% | |
| 9 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 121 | 100% | 116–125 | 114–126 | 113–127 | 111–129 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 111 | 100% | 106–115 | 105–116 | 103–117 | 101–119 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 103 | 99.9% | 98–107 | 97–109 | 96–110 | 93–112 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 72 | 80 | 0.1% | 76–85 | 74–86 | 73–87 | 71–90 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 80 | 0% | 75–84 | 74–85 | 73–86 | 70–88 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 72 | 0% | 68–77 | 67–78 | 66–80 | 64–82 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 65 | 0% | 60–69 | 59–70 | 58–71 | 56–74 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 64 | 0% | 60–68 | 59–69 | 58–70 | 56–73 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 56 | 0% | 53–61 | 51–61 | 50–63 | 48–64 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 111 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 112 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 113 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 114 | 2% | 97% | Last Result |
| 115 | 2% | 95% | |
| 116 | 4% | 92% | |
| 117 | 8% | 89% | |
| 118 | 9% | 81% | |
| 119 | 10% | 72% | |
| 120 | 13% | 63% | Median |
| 121 | 15% | 50% | |
| 122 | 6% | 35% | |
| 123 | 11% | 29% | |
| 124 | 7% | 18% | |
| 125 | 6% | 12% | |
| 126 | 2% | 5% | |
| 127 | 2% | 3% | |
| 128 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 129 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 102 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 103 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 104 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 105 | 3% | 96% | |
| 106 | 3% | 93% | |
| 107 | 9% | 90% | |
| 108 | 6% | 81% | |
| 109 | 11% | 74% | |
| 110 | 11% | 63% | |
| 111 | 13% | 52% | Median |
| 112 | 7% | 39% | |
| 113 | 10% | 32% | Last Result |
| 114 | 9% | 22% | |
| 115 | 5% | 13% | |
| 116 | 3% | 8% | |
| 117 | 2% | 4% | |
| 118 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 119 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 94 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 95 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 96 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 97 | 3% | 97% | |
| 98 | 5% | 94% | |
| 99 | 5% | 89% | |
| 100 | 8% | 84% | |
| 101 | 9% | 76% | |
| 102 | 10% | 67% | |
| 103 | 13% | 57% | Last Result, Median |
| 104 | 8% | 44% | |
| 105 | 9% | 36% | |
| 106 | 11% | 27% | |
| 107 | 7% | 16% | |
| 108 | 4% | 9% | |
| 109 | 2% | 5% | |
| 110 | 2% | 3% | |
| 111 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 72 | 0.9% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 73 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 74 | 2% | 97% | |
| 75 | 4% | 95% | |
| 76 | 7% | 91% | |
| 77 | 11% | 84% | |
| 78 | 9% | 73% | |
| 79 | 8% | 64% | Median |
| 80 | 13% | 56% | |
| 81 | 10% | 43% | |
| 82 | 9% | 33% | |
| 83 | 8% | 24% | |
| 84 | 5% | 15% | |
| 85 | 5% | 11% | |
| 86 | 3% | 6% | |
| 87 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 88 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 89 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 72 | 1.2% | 98.9% | Last Result |
| 73 | 2% | 98% | |
| 74 | 3% | 96% | |
| 75 | 4% | 93% | |
| 76 | 8% | 89% | |
| 77 | 11% | 80% | |
| 78 | 9% | 69% | |
| 79 | 9% | 60% | Median |
| 80 | 13% | 51% | |
| 81 | 10% | 38% | |
| 82 | 8% | 28% | |
| 83 | 8% | 20% | |
| 84 | 4% | 12% | |
| 85 | 4% | 8% | |
| 86 | 2% | 4% | |
| 87 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 89 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 65 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98% | |
| 67 | 3% | 96% | |
| 68 | 5% | 92% | |
| 69 | 9% | 87% | |
| 70 | 10% | 78% | |
| 71 | 7% | 68% | Median |
| 72 | 13% | 61% | |
| 73 | 11% | 48% | |
| 74 | 11% | 37% | |
| 75 | 6% | 26% | |
| 76 | 9% | 19% | |
| 77 | 3% | 10% | |
| 78 | 3% | 7% | |
| 79 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 80 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 81 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 57 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98% | |
| 59 | 2% | 97% | |
| 60 | 6% | 95% | |
| 61 | 9% | 89% | |
| 62 | 12% | 80% | Last Result |
| 63 | 11% | 68% | |
| 64 | 7% | 57% | Median |
| 65 | 12% | 50% | |
| 66 | 9% | 38% | |
| 67 | 11% | 29% | |
| 68 | 5% | 18% | |
| 69 | 7% | 13% | |
| 70 | 2% | 6% | |
| 71 | 3% | 5% | |
| 72 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 1.1% | 98.8% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98% | |
| 59 | 2% | 95% | |
| 60 | 7% | 93% | |
| 61 | 10% | 87% | |
| 62 | 12% | 77% | Last Result |
| 63 | 12% | 65% | |
| 64 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 65 | 12% | 46% | |
| 66 | 8% | 33% | |
| 67 | 11% | 25% | |
| 68 | 5% | 14% | |
| 69 | 6% | 9% | |
| 70 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 71 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 72 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 49 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 50 | 1.1% | 98.5% | |
| 51 | 4% | 97% | |
| 52 | 2% | 93% | Last Result |
| 53 | 13% | 91% | |
| 54 | 7% | 79% | |
| 55 | 8% | 72% | |
| 56 | 20% | 64% | Median |
| 57 | 5% | 44% | |
| 58 | 14% | 39% | |
| 59 | 8% | 25% | |
| 60 | 6% | 17% | |
| 61 | 8% | 12% | |
| 62 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 63 | 2% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): Der Standard
- Fieldwork period: 6–8 March 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 807
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 2.65%