Opinion Poll by Unique Research for profil, 12–15 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 31.5% 31.0% 28.4–33.7% 27.7–34.5% 27.1–35.2% 25.9–36.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 26.9% 28.0% 25.5–30.7% 24.8–31.4% 24.2–32.1% 23.1–33.4%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 26.0% 25.0% 22.6–27.6% 22.0–28.3% 21.4–29.0% 20.3–30.3%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 5.3% 7.0% 5.7–8.7% 5.4–9.2% 5.1–9.6% 4.5–10.5%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 3.8% 6.0% 4.8–7.6% 4.5–8.0% 4.2–8.4% 3.7–9.3%
JETZT–Liste Pilz 4.4% 3.0% 2.2–4.2% 2.0–4.6% 1.8–4.9% 1.5–5.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 58 53–63 52–65 51–66 48–69
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 53 48–58 46–59 45–61 43–62
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 51 46 43–51 41–52 40–53 38–57
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 10 13 10–16 9–17 9–18 8–19
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 0 11 9–14 8–15 8–15 0–17
JETZT–Liste Pilz 8 0 0–7 0–8 0–9 0–10

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.8% 99.8%  
49 0.4% 99.0%  
50 1.0% 98.6%  
51 2% 98%  
52 3% 96%  
53 5% 93%  
54 4% 88%  
55 10% 84%  
56 11% 74%  
57 5% 63%  
58 10% 57% Median
59 6% 48%  
60 7% 42%  
61 16% 35%  
62 5% 19% Last Result
63 5% 14%  
64 2% 9%  
65 3% 7%  
66 1.4% 4%  
67 0.7% 2%  
68 1.0% 2%  
69 0.4% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.9% 99.8%  
44 1.1% 98.9%  
45 1.2% 98%  
46 3% 97%  
47 3% 94%  
48 3% 91%  
49 6% 88%  
50 8% 82%  
51 17% 74%  
52 6% 57% Last Result
53 10% 51% Median
54 13% 41%  
55 3% 28%  
56 6% 25%  
57 9% 19%  
58 4% 10%  
59 4% 7%  
60 0.6% 3%  
61 1.0% 3%  
62 1.1% 2%  
63 0.1% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.4%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.2% 99.8%  
38 0.3% 99.6%  
39 0.6% 99.3%  
40 1.5% 98.7%  
41 3% 97%  
42 1.4% 94%  
43 6% 93%  
44 7% 87%  
45 13% 80%  
46 21% 67% Median
47 9% 46%  
48 9% 37%  
49 12% 27%  
50 4% 15%  
51 2% 11% Last Result
52 4% 9%  
53 2% 4%  
54 0.7% 2%  
55 0.5% 2%  
56 0.4% 1.2%  
57 0.5% 0.8%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0.1% 99.9%  
8 0.8% 99.9%  
9 5% 99.1%  
10 7% 94% Last Result
11 9% 88%  
12 21% 79%  
13 15% 58% Median
14 18% 43%  
15 8% 24%  
16 8% 16%  
17 5% 9%  
18 2% 4%  
19 0.7% 1.0%  
20 0.3% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0.5% 98%  
8 7% 98%  
9 16% 90%  
10 12% 74%  
11 19% 62% Median
12 15% 43%  
13 14% 28%  
14 8% 14%  
15 3% 6%  
16 1.4% 2%  
17 0.5% 0.8%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

JETZT–Liste Pilz

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Median
1 0% 13%  
2 0% 13%  
3 0% 13%  
4 0% 13%  
5 0% 13%  
6 0% 13%  
7 5% 13%  
8 6% 8% Last Result
9 2% 3%  
10 0.5% 0.6%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 114 112 100% 105–116 104–118 102–120 99–122
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 113 105 99.9% 100–111 98–112 96–113 94–116
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 103 100 96% 94–104 93–107 90–107 88–111
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 72 82 2% 77–88 75–90 73–90 70–94
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 77 0% 71–82 70–83 69–85 64–87
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 71 0% 65–78 64–79 63–80 61–82
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 69 0% 64–74 62–74 61–78 57–80
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 58 0% 53–63 52–65 51–66 48–69
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 53 0% 48–58 46–59 45–61 43–62

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0.1% 100%  
98 0.2% 99.9%  
99 0.3% 99.7%  
100 0.7% 99.4%  
101 0.9% 98.7%  
102 0.4% 98%  
103 0.5% 97%  
104 2% 97%  
105 6% 95%  
106 9% 88%  
107 3% 79%  
108 8% 76%  
109 7% 68%  
110 4% 61%  
111 5% 57% Median
112 14% 52%  
113 4% 38%  
114 9% 34% Last Result
115 13% 25%  
116 4% 12%  
117 3% 8%  
118 2% 6%  
119 0.8% 3%  
120 0.9% 3%  
121 1.2% 2%  
122 0.1% 0.6%  
123 0.3% 0.5%  
124 0% 0.2%  
125 0.1% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9% Majority
93 0.1% 99.8%  
94 0.4% 99.7%  
95 1.2% 99.3%  
96 2% 98%  
97 1.3% 96%  
98 1.1% 95%  
99 2% 94%  
100 3% 92%  
101 9% 89%  
102 5% 79%  
103 11% 75%  
104 13% 63% Median
105 3% 50%  
106 10% 47%  
107 13% 37%  
108 4% 24%  
109 4% 20%  
110 5% 16%  
111 2% 11%  
112 5% 9%  
113 2% 4% Last Result
114 1.1% 2%  
115 0.3% 0.8%  
116 0.2% 0.5%  
117 0.1% 0.4%  
118 0.1% 0.3%  
119 0.1% 0.2%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.8%  
88 0.3% 99.7%  
89 0.8% 99.4%  
90 1.4% 98.6%  
91 0.9% 97%  
92 1.1% 96% Majority
93 3% 95%  
94 5% 92%  
95 2% 87%  
96 8% 85%  
97 12% 77%  
98 5% 65%  
99 9% 60% Median
100 11% 51%  
101 9% 40%  
102 6% 31%  
103 12% 25% Last Result
104 3% 13%  
105 2% 10%  
106 2% 7%  
107 3% 6%  
108 0.5% 2%  
109 0.4% 2%  
110 0.2% 1.4%  
111 0.8% 1.3%  
112 0.2% 0.4%  
113 0.2% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.5% 99.8%  
71 0.2% 99.3%  
72 1.5% 99.0% Last Result
73 0.4% 98%  
74 1.0% 97%  
75 1.3% 96%  
76 3% 95%  
77 2% 91%  
78 6% 89%  
79 4% 83%  
80 12% 79%  
81 7% 67%  
82 10% 60% Median
83 10% 50%  
84 9% 40%  
85 3% 31%  
86 10% 28%  
87 8% 18%  
88 2% 10%  
89 3% 8%  
90 3% 5%  
91 0.9% 2%  
92 0.6% 2% Majority
93 0.5% 1.0%  
94 0.4% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0.4% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.6%  
65 0.2% 99.5%  
66 0.2% 99.3%  
67 0.7% 99.2%  
68 0.8% 98%  
69 1.3% 98%  
70 2% 96%  
71 6% 94%  
72 4% 89%  
73 7% 84%  
74 5% 77%  
75 4% 72%  
76 13% 68%  
77 10% 55% Median
78 4% 44%  
79 13% 40%  
80 8% 27%  
81 4% 19%  
82 9% 15%  
83 0.9% 6%  
84 2% 5%  
85 0.8% 3%  
86 0.5% 2%  
87 1.0% 1.4%  
88 0.1% 0.4%  
89 0.2% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.8% 99.7%  
62 0.9% 98.9%  
63 2% 98%  
64 4% 96%  
65 3% 93%  
66 4% 90%  
67 3% 85%  
68 3% 82%  
69 5% 79%  
70 7% 74%  
71 19% 67% Median
72 4% 48% Last Result
73 23% 44%  
74 4% 20%  
75 2% 17%  
76 1.1% 14%  
77 2% 13%  
78 4% 12%  
79 3% 8%  
80 3% 4%  
81 0.8% 1.4%  
82 0.4% 0.6%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.8%  
57 0.3% 99.8%  
58 0.2% 99.5%  
59 0.6% 99.2%  
60 1.0% 98.6%  
61 1.3% 98%  
62 2% 96% Last Result
63 1.3% 95%  
64 5% 93%  
65 6% 89%  
66 5% 83%  
67 19% 78%  
68 8% 58%  
69 3% 51% Median
70 2% 47%  
71 4% 45%  
72 11% 41%  
73 11% 30%  
74 13% 18%  
75 0.9% 5%  
76 0.6% 4%  
77 0.3% 3%  
78 1.1% 3%  
79 0.7% 2%  
80 0.8% 1.2%  
81 0.3% 0.4%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.8% 99.8%  
49 0.4% 99.0%  
50 1.0% 98.6%  
51 2% 98%  
52 3% 96%  
53 5% 93%  
54 4% 88%  
55 10% 84%  
56 11% 74%  
57 5% 63%  
58 10% 57% Median
59 6% 48%  
60 7% 42%  
61 16% 35%  
62 5% 19% Last Result
63 5% 14%  
64 2% 9%  
65 3% 7%  
66 1.4% 4%  
67 0.7% 2%  
68 1.0% 2%  
69 0.4% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.9% 99.8%  
44 1.1% 98.9%  
45 1.2% 98%  
46 3% 97%  
47 3% 94%  
48 3% 91%  
49 6% 88%  
50 8% 82%  
51 17% 74%  
52 6% 57% Last Result
53 10% 51% Median
54 13% 41%  
55 3% 28%  
56 6% 25%  
57 9% 19%  
58 4% 10%  
59 4% 7%  
60 0.6% 3%  
61 1.0% 3%  
62 1.1% 2%  
63 0.1% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.4%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations