Opinion Poll by OGM for ServusTV, 19–21 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 31.5% 32.0% 29.4–34.7% 28.7–35.5% 28.1–36.1% 26.9–37.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 26.9% 27.9% 25.5–30.6% 24.8–31.3% 24.2–32.0% 23.1–33.2%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 26.0% 24.1% 21.8–26.6% 21.2–27.3% 20.6–28.0% 19.5–29.2%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 5.3% 6.9% 5.7–8.6% 5.3–9.1% 5.0–9.5% 4.5–10.3%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 3.8% 5.0% 4.0–6.5% 3.7–6.9% 3.4–7.3% 3.0–8.0%
JETZT–Liste Pilz 4.4% 3.1% 2.3–4.3% 2.1–4.6% 1.9–5.0% 1.6–5.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 61 56–66 54–67 53–69 51–73
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 53 48–58 47–59 46–61 43–63
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 51 46 41–51 40–52 39–53 37–56
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 10 13 10–16 10–17 9–17 8–19
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 0 9 0–12 0–13 0–13 0–15
JETZT–Liste Pilz 8 0 0–7 0–8 0–9 0–10

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 0.5% 99.6%  
52 0.7% 99.1%  
53 2% 98%  
54 2% 97%  
55 3% 94%  
56 5% 91%  
57 7% 87%  
58 9% 79%  
59 9% 70%  
60 6% 61%  
61 10% 56% Median
62 14% 46% Last Result
63 6% 32%  
64 6% 25%  
65 6% 20%  
66 6% 13%  
67 3% 8%  
68 2% 5%  
69 0.9% 3%  
70 0.8% 2%  
71 0.3% 1.3%  
72 0.4% 1.0%  
73 0.4% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 0.5% 99.5%  
45 1.2% 99.0%  
46 2% 98%  
47 3% 95%  
48 4% 92%  
49 7% 89%  
50 8% 81%  
51 8% 73%  
52 9% 65% Last Result
53 11% 57% Median
54 11% 45%  
55 9% 34%  
56 6% 25%  
57 5% 19%  
58 5% 14%  
59 5% 10%  
60 2% 5%  
61 1.3% 3%  
62 1.0% 2%  
63 0.5% 1.0%  
64 0.2% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.6%  
38 1.2% 99.1%  
39 2% 98%  
40 2% 95%  
41 5% 93%  
42 7% 88%  
43 6% 81%  
44 10% 74%  
45 11% 64%  
46 10% 53% Median
47 12% 43%  
48 7% 31%  
49 8% 24%  
50 5% 15%  
51 3% 10% Last Result
52 3% 7%  
53 2% 4%  
54 0.9% 2%  
55 0.6% 1.3%  
56 0.3% 0.7%  
57 0.3% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0.1% 99.9%  
8 0.6% 99.8%  
9 4% 99.3%  
10 6% 96% Last Result
11 14% 90%  
12 19% 76%  
13 15% 57% Median
14 20% 43%  
15 9% 23%  
16 7% 14%  
17 5% 7%  
18 1.1% 2%  
19 0.8% 1.2%  
20 0.3% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100% Last Result
1 0% 90%  
2 0% 90%  
3 0% 90%  
4 0% 90%  
5 0% 90%  
6 0% 90%  
7 8% 90%  
8 16% 82%  
9 20% 66% Median
10 22% 47%  
11 13% 25%  
12 6% 11%  
13 3% 5%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.6% 0.7%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

JETZT–Liste Pilz

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Median
1 0% 19%  
2 0% 19%  
3 0% 19%  
4 0% 19%  
5 0% 19%  
6 0% 19%  
7 10% 19%  
8 5% 9% Last Result
9 3% 4%  
10 0.4% 0.8%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 114 114 100% 108–120 106–122 105–124 102–127
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 113 107 100% 101–112 99–114 97–116 94–119
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 103 99 94% 93–106 91–106 90–108 87–112
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 72 83 2% 77–88 75–90 74–91 70–94
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 75 0% 69–80 67–82 66–84 62–86
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 74 0% 68–79 67–81 66–83 63–86
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 70 0% 64–75 62–77 60–78 57–81
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 61 0% 56–66 54–67 53–69 51–73
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 53 0% 48–58 47–59 46–61 43–63

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.8%  
102 0.3% 99.7%  
103 0.6% 99.4%  
104 1.0% 98.8%  
105 1.5% 98%  
106 2% 96%  
107 2% 95%  
108 5% 92%  
109 5% 87%  
110 5% 82%  
111 6% 77%  
112 8% 71%  
113 11% 63%  
114 5% 52% Last Result, Median
115 11% 46%  
116 8% 36%  
117 6% 28%  
118 5% 22%  
119 6% 17%  
120 3% 12%  
121 3% 9%  
122 1.1% 6%  
123 1.3% 5%  
124 2% 3%  
125 0.5% 1.5%  
126 0.3% 1.0%  
127 0.3% 0.7%  
128 0.2% 0.4%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0.1% 100% Majority
93 0.2% 99.9%  
94 0.2% 99.7%  
95 0.6% 99.5%  
96 0.6% 98.9%  
97 1.1% 98%  
98 1.1% 97%  
99 3% 96%  
100 3% 93%  
101 3% 90%  
102 4% 87%  
103 5% 84%  
104 7% 78%  
105 10% 71%  
106 10% 61%  
107 11% 51% Median
108 5% 40%  
109 7% 36%  
110 9% 28%  
111 5% 19%  
112 5% 14%  
113 3% 10% Last Result
114 1.4% 6%  
115 2% 5%  
116 1.1% 3%  
117 1.4% 2%  
118 0.1% 1.0%  
119 0.5% 0.8%  
120 0% 0.3%  
121 0.2% 0.3%  
122 0.1% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.8%  
87 0.4% 99.7%  
88 0.6% 99.3%  
89 0.6% 98.7%  
90 1.2% 98%  
91 3% 97%  
92 3% 94% Majority
93 4% 91%  
94 3% 87%  
95 6% 84%  
96 7% 78%  
97 13% 71%  
98 8% 58%  
99 7% 51% Median
100 8% 44%  
101 7% 35%  
102 4% 28%  
103 7% 25% Last Result
104 5% 17%  
105 2% 12%  
106 5% 10%  
107 2% 5%  
108 0.9% 3%  
109 0.8% 2%  
110 0.3% 1.1%  
111 0.3% 0.8%  
112 0.2% 0.5%  
113 0.2% 0.4%  
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0% 99.8%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 0.3% 99.6%  
71 0.2% 99.4%  
72 0.4% 99.2% Last Result
73 0.6% 98.8%  
74 1.3% 98%  
75 3% 97%  
76 3% 94%  
77 6% 91%  
78 4% 85%  
79 7% 81%  
80 8% 74%  
81 5% 66%  
82 8% 61%  
83 9% 53% Median
84 7% 45%  
85 8% 37%  
86 11% 30%  
87 6% 19%  
88 5% 13%  
89 2% 8%  
90 2% 6%  
91 2% 4%  
92 1.0% 2% Majority
93 0.6% 1.4%  
94 0.4% 0.7%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.6% Last Result
63 0.2% 99.4%  
64 0.6% 99.2%  
65 0.5% 98.6%  
66 3% 98%  
67 2% 95%  
68 3% 94%  
69 2% 91%  
70 4% 89%  
71 7% 85%  
72 8% 78%  
73 9% 70%  
74 8% 61%  
75 4% 54% Median
76 11% 49%  
77 11% 38%  
78 9% 27%  
79 5% 19%  
80 4% 14%  
81 2% 9%  
82 3% 7%  
83 2% 4%  
84 1.4% 3%  
85 0.4% 1.2%  
86 0.3% 0.7%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.6%  
64 1.1% 99.4%  
65 0.8% 98%  
66 1.4% 98%  
67 2% 96%  
68 4% 94%  
69 5% 90%  
70 7% 84%  
71 8% 78%  
72 7% 70% Last Result
73 7% 63%  
74 9% 56% Median
75 9% 47%  
76 12% 38%  
77 6% 26%  
78 6% 20%  
79 5% 14%  
80 3% 9%  
81 2% 6%  
82 2% 4%  
83 0.6% 3%  
84 1.0% 2%  
85 0.3% 1.2%  
86 0.6% 0.9%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.2% 99.5%  
58 0.3% 99.3%  
59 0.5% 99.0%  
60 1.1% 98.5%  
61 1.5% 97%  
62 2% 96% Last Result
63 4% 94%  
64 4% 91%  
65 5% 87%  
66 7% 82%  
67 9% 75%  
68 6% 66%  
69 8% 60%  
70 7% 52% Median
71 8% 45%  
72 13% 37%  
73 7% 25%  
74 4% 17%  
75 5% 13%  
76 3% 9%  
77 2% 6%  
78 1.5% 4%  
79 1.0% 2%  
80 0.3% 1.0%  
81 0.3% 0.7%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 0.5% 99.6%  
52 0.7% 99.1%  
53 2% 98%  
54 2% 97%  
55 3% 94%  
56 5% 91%  
57 7% 87%  
58 9% 79%  
59 9% 70%  
60 6% 61%  
61 10% 56% Median
62 14% 46% Last Result
63 6% 32%  
64 6% 25%  
65 6% 20%  
66 6% 13%  
67 3% 8%  
68 2% 5%  
69 0.9% 3%  
70 0.8% 2%  
71 0.3% 1.3%  
72 0.4% 1.0%  
73 0.4% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 0.5% 99.5%  
45 1.2% 99.0%  
46 2% 98%  
47 3% 95%  
48 4% 92%  
49 7% 89%  
50 8% 81%  
51 8% 73%  
52 9% 65% Last Result
53 11% 57% Median
54 11% 45%  
55 9% 34%  
56 6% 25%  
57 5% 19%  
58 5% 14%  
59 5% 10%  
60 2% 5%  
61 1.3% 3%  
62 1.0% 2%  
63 0.5% 1.0%  
64 0.2% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations