Opinion Poll by Unique Research for Heute, 19–22 March 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 32.0% | 29.9–34.2% | 29.4–34.8% | 28.9–35.3% | 27.9–36.4% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 30.0% | 28.0–32.1% | 27.4–32.8% | 26.9–33.3% | 26.0–34.3% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 23.0% | 21.2–25.0% | 20.7–25.6% | 20.2–26.0% | 19.4–27.0% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 8.0% | 6.9–9.4% | 6.6–9.8% | 6.3–10.1% | 5.8–10.8% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.9–5.6% | 2.5–6.1% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.2–3.2% | 1.0–3.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 62 | 57–66 | 56–67 | 55–69 | 53–71 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 58 | 53–62 | 52–63 | 51–65 | 49–67 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 44 | 40–48 | 39–49 | 39–50 | 37–52 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 15 | 13–17 | 12–18 | 12–19 | 11–20 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 7 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–11 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98% | |
| 56 | 4% | 96% | |
| 57 | 6% | 92% | |
| 58 | 5% | 86% | |
| 59 | 7% | 82% | |
| 60 | 11% | 74% | |
| 61 | 13% | 64% | |
| 62 | 11% | 50% | Last Result, Median |
| 63 | 8% | 39% | |
| 64 | 13% | 31% | |
| 65 | 6% | 17% | |
| 66 | 4% | 12% | |
| 67 | 3% | 8% | |
| 68 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 69 | 2% | 3% | |
| 70 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 52 | 3% | 97% | Last Result |
| 53 | 6% | 94% | |
| 54 | 7% | 89% | |
| 55 | 6% | 82% | |
| 56 | 11% | 75% | |
| 57 | 11% | 65% | |
| 58 | 15% | 54% | Median |
| 59 | 9% | 38% | |
| 60 | 10% | 30% | |
| 61 | 7% | 20% | |
| 62 | 5% | 13% | |
| 63 | 4% | 8% | |
| 64 | 2% | 4% | |
| 65 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 66 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 38 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 39 | 5% | 98% | |
| 40 | 5% | 93% | |
| 41 | 7% | 88% | |
| 42 | 10% | 81% | |
| 43 | 12% | 70% | |
| 44 | 17% | 59% | Median |
| 45 | 9% | 42% | |
| 46 | 9% | 33% | |
| 47 | 8% | 24% | |
| 48 | 7% | 16% | |
| 49 | 4% | 9% | |
| 50 | 3% | 5% | |
| 51 | 0.9% | 2% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 12 | 6% | 98% | |
| 13 | 12% | 92% | |
| 14 | 15% | 80% | |
| 15 | 24% | 65% | Median |
| 16 | 15% | 41% | |
| 17 | 17% | 26% | |
| 18 | 6% | 10% | |
| 19 | 2% | 4% | |
| 20 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 48% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 52% | |
| 2 | 0% | 52% | |
| 3 | 0% | 52% | |
| 4 | 0% | 52% | |
| 5 | 0% | 52% | |
| 6 | 0% | 52% | |
| 7 | 9% | 52% | Median |
| 8 | 26% | 43% | |
| 9 | 11% | 17% | |
| 10 | 5% | 6% | |
| 11 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 119 | 100% | 114–125 | 112–127 | 112–127 | 109–129 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 106 | 100% | 101–111 | 99–113 | 98–114 | 96–116 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 102 | 99.6% | 97–108 | 95–108 | 94–110 | 92–112 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 72 | 81 | 0.4% | 75–86 | 75–88 | 73–89 | 71–91 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 77 | 0% | 72–82 | 70–84 | 69–85 | 67–87 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 77 | 0% | 72–81 | 70–83 | 70–84 | 67–86 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 66 | 0% | 60–71 | 59–73 | 58–74 | 56–76 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 62 | 0% | 57–66 | 56–67 | 55–69 | 53–71 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 58 | 0% | 53–62 | 52–63 | 51–65 | 49–67 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 110 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 111 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 112 | 3% | 98% | |
| 113 | 4% | 95% | |
| 114 | 4% | 91% | Last Result |
| 115 | 5% | 87% | |
| 116 | 8% | 82% | |
| 117 | 6% | 74% | |
| 118 | 8% | 68% | |
| 119 | 12% | 60% | |
| 120 | 11% | 48% | Median |
| 121 | 8% | 37% | |
| 122 | 7% | 29% | |
| 123 | 6% | 21% | |
| 124 | 4% | 15% | |
| 125 | 3% | 11% | |
| 126 | 3% | 8% | |
| 127 | 3% | 5% | |
| 128 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 129 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 98.5% | |
| 98 | 2% | 98% | |
| 99 | 3% | 96% | |
| 100 | 0.7% | 93% | |
| 101 | 9% | 92% | |
| 102 | 8% | 83% | |
| 103 | 1.4% | 75% | |
| 104 | 16% | 74% | |
| 105 | 6% | 58% | |
| 106 | 3% | 51% | Median |
| 107 | 14% | 48% | |
| 108 | 11% | 35% | |
| 109 | 5% | 24% | |
| 110 | 5% | 18% | |
| 111 | 6% | 13% | |
| 112 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 113 | 3% | 6% | Last Result |
| 114 | 2% | 3% | |
| 115 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.5% | 99.6% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 94 | 2% | 98% | |
| 95 | 2% | 97% | |
| 96 | 3% | 94% | |
| 97 | 7% | 91% | |
| 98 | 6% | 84% | |
| 99 | 9% | 78% | |
| 100 | 9% | 70% | |
| 101 | 5% | 61% | |
| 102 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 103 | 10% | 43% | Last Result |
| 104 | 4% | 33% | |
| 105 | 9% | 29% | |
| 106 | 6% | 20% | |
| 107 | 3% | 14% | |
| 108 | 7% | 11% | |
| 109 | 2% | 5% | |
| 110 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 111 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 72 | 1.1% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 73 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 74 | 2% | 97% | |
| 75 | 7% | 95% | |
| 76 | 3% | 89% | |
| 77 | 6% | 86% | |
| 78 | 9% | 80% | |
| 79 | 4% | 71% | |
| 80 | 10% | 66% | |
| 81 | 13% | 57% | |
| 82 | 5% | 44% | |
| 83 | 9% | 39% | |
| 84 | 9% | 30% | Median |
| 85 | 5% | 21% | |
| 86 | 7% | 16% | |
| 87 | 3% | 9% | |
| 88 | 2% | 6% | |
| 89 | 2% | 3% | |
| 90 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 69 | 2% | 98% | |
| 70 | 3% | 97% | |
| 71 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 72 | 6% | 93% | |
| 73 | 5% | 87% | |
| 74 | 5% | 82% | |
| 75 | 11% | 76% | |
| 76 | 14% | 65% | |
| 77 | 3% | 51% | |
| 78 | 6% | 48% | |
| 79 | 16% | 42% | |
| 80 | 1.4% | 26% | Median |
| 81 | 8% | 25% | |
| 82 | 9% | 17% | |
| 83 | 0.7% | 8% | |
| 84 | 3% | 7% | |
| 85 | 2% | 4% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 87 | 1.0% | 1.5% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 69 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 70 | 4% | 98% | |
| 71 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 72 | 7% | 94% | Last Result |
| 73 | 8% | 87% | |
| 74 | 4% | 79% | |
| 75 | 16% | 76% | |
| 76 | 7% | 59% | |
| 77 | 7% | 52% | Median |
| 78 | 16% | 45% | |
| 79 | 5% | 29% | |
| 80 | 7% | 24% | |
| 81 | 8% | 17% | |
| 82 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 83 | 2% | 7% | |
| 84 | 3% | 5% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 58 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 59 | 3% | 97% | |
| 60 | 4% | 94% | |
| 61 | 7% | 90% | |
| 62 | 7% | 83% | Last Result |
| 63 | 5% | 76% | |
| 64 | 12% | 71% | |
| 65 | 7% | 59% | |
| 66 | 6% | 52% | |
| 67 | 7% | 46% | |
| 68 | 8% | 39% | |
| 69 | 7% | 30% | Median |
| 70 | 6% | 23% | |
| 71 | 8% | 17% | |
| 72 | 3% | 9% | |
| 73 | 3% | 6% | |
| 74 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98% | |
| 56 | 4% | 96% | |
| 57 | 6% | 92% | |
| 58 | 5% | 86% | |
| 59 | 7% | 82% | |
| 60 | 11% | 74% | |
| 61 | 13% | 64% | |
| 62 | 11% | 50% | Last Result, Median |
| 63 | 8% | 39% | |
| 64 | 13% | 31% | |
| 65 | 6% | 17% | |
| 66 | 4% | 12% | |
| 67 | 3% | 8% | |
| 68 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 69 | 2% | 3% | |
| 70 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 52 | 3% | 97% | Last Result |
| 53 | 6% | 94% | |
| 54 | 7% | 89% | |
| 55 | 6% | 82% | |
| 56 | 11% | 75% | |
| 57 | 11% | 65% | |
| 58 | 15% | 54% | Median |
| 59 | 9% | 38% | |
| 60 | 10% | 30% | |
| 61 | 7% | 20% | |
| 62 | 5% | 13% | |
| 63 | 4% | 8% | |
| 64 | 2% | 4% | |
| 65 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 66 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Unique Research
- Commissioner(s): Heute
- Fieldwork period: 19–22 March 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.40%