Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 26–29 March 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 32.1% | 30.0–34.2% | 29.4–34.8% | 28.9–35.4% | 28.0–36.4% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 28.0% | 26.0–30.1% | 25.5–30.7% | 25.0–31.2% | 24.1–32.2% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 25.0% | 23.2–27.1% | 22.6–27.6% | 22.2–28.1% | 21.3–29.1% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 8.0% | 6.9–9.4% | 6.6–9.8% | 6.3–10.1% | 5.8–10.8% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.8–5.5% | 2.5–6.1% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.2% | 1.0–3.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 62 | 57–67 | 56–68 | 55–69 | 53–71 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 54 | 50–58 | 49–59 | 48–60 | 46–62 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 48 | 44–53 | 43–54 | 42–54 | 40–56 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 15 | 13–18 | 12–19 | 12–19 | 11–21 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 0 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–11 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 56 | 2% | 97% | |
| 57 | 6% | 95% | |
| 58 | 6% | 89% | |
| 59 | 7% | 83% | |
| 60 | 11% | 76% | |
| 61 | 11% | 66% | |
| 62 | 10% | 55% | Last Result, Median |
| 63 | 9% | 45% | |
| 64 | 13% | 36% | |
| 65 | 6% | 23% | |
| 66 | 6% | 18% | |
| 67 | 5% | 11% | |
| 68 | 3% | 6% | |
| 69 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 70 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 47 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 48 | 2% | 98% | |
| 49 | 4% | 96% | |
| 50 | 5% | 92% | |
| 51 | 9% | 87% | |
| 52 | 12% | 79% | Last Result |
| 53 | 10% | 67% | |
| 54 | 17% | 57% | Median |
| 55 | 9% | 40% | |
| 56 | 10% | 31% | |
| 57 | 7% | 21% | |
| 58 | 5% | 13% | |
| 59 | 5% | 8% | |
| 60 | 2% | 3% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 42 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 43 | 4% | 97% | |
| 44 | 5% | 93% | |
| 45 | 8% | 87% | |
| 46 | 8% | 79% | |
| 47 | 12% | 72% | |
| 48 | 11% | 59% | Median |
| 49 | 14% | 48% | |
| 50 | 12% | 35% | |
| 51 | 6% | 23% | Last Result |
| 52 | 6% | 17% | |
| 53 | 5% | 10% | |
| 54 | 3% | 6% | |
| 55 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 12 | 4% | 98% | |
| 13 | 10% | 94% | |
| 14 | 17% | 84% | |
| 15 | 22% | 67% | Median |
| 16 | 20% | 46% | |
| 17 | 11% | 26% | |
| 18 | 9% | 15% | |
| 19 | 3% | 5% | |
| 20 | 2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 61% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 39% | |
| 2 | 0% | 39% | |
| 3 | 0% | 39% | |
| 4 | 0% | 39% | |
| 5 | 0% | 39% | |
| 6 | 0% | 39% | |
| 7 | 5% | 39% | |
| 8 | 13% | 34% | |
| 9 | 14% | 21% | |
| 10 | 6% | 7% | |
| 11 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 116 | 100% | 110–121 | 109–122 | 108–124 | 106–125 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 111 | 100% | 104–116 | 103–117 | 102–118 | 100–120 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 102 | 99.6% | 97–107 | 96–109 | 94–109 | 92–112 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 72 | 81 | 0.4% | 76–86 | 74–87 | 74–89 | 71–91 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 77 | 0% | 72–82 | 71–83 | 69–85 | 68–87 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 72 | 0% | 67–79 | 66–80 | 65–81 | 63–83 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 65 | 0% | 60–71 | 59–72 | 58–73 | 56–76 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 62 | 0% | 57–67 | 56–68 | 55–69 | 53–71 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 54 | 0% | 50–58 | 49–59 | 48–60 | 46–62 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 106 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 107 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 108 | 2% | 98% | |
| 109 | 2% | 96% | |
| 110 | 5% | 95% | |
| 111 | 4% | 90% | |
| 112 | 5% | 85% | |
| 113 | 7% | 81% | |
| 114 | 8% | 74% | Last Result |
| 115 | 9% | 66% | |
| 116 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 117 | 12% | 49% | |
| 118 | 10% | 37% | |
| 119 | 9% | 26% | |
| 120 | 4% | 18% | |
| 121 | 7% | 14% | |
| 122 | 3% | 7% | |
| 123 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 124 | 2% | 3% | |
| 125 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 126 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 100 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 101 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 102 | 2% | 98% | |
| 103 | 3% | 96% | |
| 104 | 5% | 94% | |
| 105 | 4% | 89% | |
| 106 | 7% | 85% | |
| 107 | 4% | 78% | |
| 108 | 8% | 74% | |
| 109 | 7% | 66% | |
| 110 | 8% | 59% | Median |
| 111 | 12% | 51% | |
| 112 | 6% | 39% | |
| 113 | 7% | 33% | Last Result |
| 114 | 6% | 25% | |
| 115 | 6% | 19% | |
| 116 | 7% | 13% | |
| 117 | 3% | 6% | |
| 118 | 2% | 3% | |
| 119 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 99.6% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 94 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 95 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 96 | 4% | 96% | |
| 97 | 7% | 93% | |
| 98 | 2% | 86% | |
| 99 | 8% | 85% | |
| 100 | 10% | 76% | |
| 101 | 7% | 66% | |
| 102 | 9% | 59% | Median |
| 103 | 17% | 49% | Last Result |
| 104 | 3% | 33% | |
| 105 | 8% | 30% | |
| 106 | 9% | 22% | |
| 107 | 4% | 13% | |
| 108 | 4% | 9% | |
| 109 | 3% | 5% | |
| 110 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 112 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 0.6% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 74 | 3% | 98% | |
| 75 | 4% | 95% | |
| 76 | 4% | 91% | |
| 77 | 9% | 87% | Median |
| 78 | 8% | 78% | |
| 79 | 3% | 70% | |
| 80 | 17% | 67% | |
| 81 | 9% | 51% | |
| 82 | 7% | 41% | |
| 83 | 10% | 34% | |
| 84 | 8% | 24% | |
| 85 | 2% | 15% | |
| 86 | 7% | 14% | |
| 87 | 4% | 7% | |
| 88 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 89 | 2% | 3% | |
| 90 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 92 | 0.4% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 69 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 70 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 71 | 3% | 96% | |
| 72 | 5% | 93% | Last Result |
| 73 | 4% | 88% | |
| 74 | 7% | 84% | |
| 75 | 9% | 77% | |
| 76 | 7% | 68% | |
| 77 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 78 | 10% | 48% | |
| 79 | 4% | 38% | |
| 80 | 15% | 35% | |
| 81 | 4% | 20% | |
| 82 | 7% | 17% | |
| 83 | 6% | 10% | |
| 84 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 85 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 86 | 2% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 64 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98% | |
| 66 | 3% | 97% | |
| 67 | 7% | 94% | |
| 68 | 6% | 87% | |
| 69 | 6% | 81% | Median |
| 70 | 7% | 75% | |
| 71 | 6% | 67% | |
| 72 | 12% | 61% | |
| 73 | 8% | 49% | |
| 74 | 7% | 41% | |
| 75 | 8% | 34% | |
| 76 | 4% | 26% | |
| 77 | 7% | 22% | |
| 78 | 4% | 15% | |
| 79 | 5% | 11% | |
| 80 | 3% | 6% | |
| 81 | 2% | 3% | |
| 82 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98% | |
| 59 | 3% | 96% | |
| 60 | 6% | 93% | |
| 61 | 6% | 87% | |
| 62 | 7% | 82% | Last Result, Median |
| 63 | 7% | 75% | |
| 64 | 12% | 68% | |
| 65 | 7% | 56% | |
| 66 | 10% | 49% | |
| 67 | 9% | 39% | |
| 68 | 7% | 31% | |
| 69 | 7% | 23% | |
| 70 | 5% | 17% | |
| 71 | 4% | 12% | |
| 72 | 4% | 8% | |
| 73 | 2% | 4% | |
| 74 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 56 | 2% | 97% | |
| 57 | 6% | 95% | |
| 58 | 6% | 89% | |
| 59 | 7% | 83% | |
| 60 | 11% | 76% | |
| 61 | 11% | 66% | |
| 62 | 10% | 55% | Last Result, Median |
| 63 | 9% | 45% | |
| 64 | 13% | 36% | |
| 65 | 6% | 23% | |
| 66 | 6% | 18% | |
| 67 | 5% | 11% | |
| 68 | 3% | 6% | |
| 69 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 70 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 47 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 48 | 2% | 98% | |
| 49 | 4% | 96% | |
| 50 | 5% | 92% | |
| 51 | 9% | 87% | |
| 52 | 12% | 79% | Last Result |
| 53 | 10% | 67% | |
| 54 | 17% | 57% | Median |
| 55 | 9% | 40% | |
| 56 | 10% | 31% | |
| 57 | 7% | 21% | |
| 58 | 5% | 13% | |
| 59 | 5% | 8% | |
| 60 | 2% | 3% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): Der Standard
- Fieldwork period: 26–29 March 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 811
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.95%