Opinion Poll by Research Affairs for ÖSTERREICH, 29 March–4 April 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 32.0% | 30.2–34.0% | 29.7–34.5% | 29.2–35.0% | 28.4–35.9% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 28.0% | 26.2–29.8% | 25.7–30.4% | 25.3–30.8% | 24.5–31.7% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 23.0% | 21.4–24.8% | 20.9–25.3% | 20.5–25.7% | 19.8–26.6% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.4% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.8% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.8–4.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 63 | 59–68 | 58–69 | 57–70 | 55–72 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 55 | 51–59 | 50–61 | 49–62 | 48–64 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 45 | 42–49 | 41–50 | 40–51 | 39–53 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 14 | 12–16 | 11–17 | 11–17 | 10–18 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 7 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–11 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–8 | 0–9 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 57 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 58 | 4% | 97% | |
| 59 | 4% | 93% | |
| 60 | 8% | 89% | |
| 61 | 9% | 81% | |
| 62 | 13% | 72% | Last Result |
| 63 | 11% | 59% | Median |
| 64 | 11% | 48% | |
| 65 | 11% | 37% | |
| 66 | 8% | 26% | |
| 67 | 8% | 18% | |
| 68 | 4% | 10% | |
| 69 | 3% | 6% | |
| 70 | 2% | 3% | |
| 71 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 49 | 1.4% | 98.6% | |
| 50 | 4% | 97% | |
| 51 | 4% | 93% | |
| 52 | 6% | 89% | Last Result |
| 53 | 11% | 83% | |
| 54 | 10% | 72% | |
| 55 | 14% | 61% | Median |
| 56 | 13% | 47% | |
| 57 | 10% | 34% | |
| 58 | 8% | 24% | |
| 59 | 6% | 16% | |
| 60 | 4% | 10% | |
| 61 | 3% | 6% | |
| 62 | 2% | 3% | |
| 63 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 40 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 41 | 5% | 96% | |
| 42 | 8% | 91% | |
| 43 | 8% | 83% | |
| 44 | 9% | 75% | |
| 45 | 17% | 66% | Median |
| 46 | 16% | 49% | |
| 47 | 9% | 33% | |
| 48 | 7% | 25% | |
| 49 | 9% | 17% | |
| 50 | 6% | 9% | |
| 51 | 1.4% | 3% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 53 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 11 | 6% | 98% | |
| 12 | 17% | 92% | |
| 13 | 19% | 74% | |
| 14 | 24% | 55% | Median |
| 15 | 18% | 31% | |
| 16 | 8% | 13% | |
| 17 | 4% | 5% | |
| 18 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 48% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 52% | |
| 2 | 0% | 52% | |
| 3 | 0% | 52% | |
| 4 | 0% | 52% | |
| 5 | 0% | 52% | |
| 6 | 0% | 52% | |
| 7 | 5% | 52% | Median |
| 8 | 28% | 47% | |
| 9 | 14% | 19% | |
| 10 | 3% | 5% | |
| 11 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 4% | |
| 7 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 8 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 119 | 100% | 114–124 | 112–126 | 111–126 | 108–129 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 109 | 100% | 104–114 | 102–115 | 101–117 | 99–119 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 101 | 99.1% | 96–107 | 94–107 | 93–109 | 91–110 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 72 | 82 | 0.3% | 76–87 | 75–87 | 74–89 | 71–91 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 77 | 0% | 73–82 | 72–83 | 70–84 | 68–86 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 73 | 0% | 68–79 | 67–80 | 65–81 | 63–83 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 68 | 0% | 62–73 | 61–74 | 60–75 | 58–77 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 63 | 0% | 59–68 | 58–69 | 57–70 | 55–72 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 55 | 0% | 51–59 | 50–61 | 49–62 | 48–64 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 108 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 109 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 110 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 111 | 2% | 98% | |
| 112 | 4% | 96% | |
| 113 | 2% | 92% | |
| 114 | 5% | 90% | Last Result |
| 115 | 10% | 85% | |
| 116 | 7% | 76% | |
| 117 | 7% | 69% | |
| 118 | 10% | 62% | Median |
| 119 | 7% | 52% | |
| 120 | 11% | 45% | |
| 121 | 8% | 34% | |
| 122 | 6% | 26% | |
| 123 | 5% | 20% | |
| 124 | 6% | 15% | |
| 125 | 3% | 9% | |
| 126 | 3% | 5% | |
| 127 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 128 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 129 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 100 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 101 | 2% | 98% | |
| 102 | 2% | 96% | |
| 103 | 4% | 94% | |
| 104 | 5% | 90% | |
| 105 | 6% | 85% | |
| 106 | 7% | 79% | |
| 107 | 10% | 72% | |
| 108 | 9% | 62% | Median |
| 109 | 8% | 53% | |
| 110 | 10% | 45% | |
| 111 | 8% | 35% | |
| 112 | 6% | 27% | |
| 113 | 7% | 21% | Last Result |
| 114 | 6% | 15% | |
| 115 | 4% | 9% | |
| 116 | 2% | 4% | |
| 117 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 118 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 119 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 91 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 92 | 0.9% | 99.1% | Majority |
| 93 | 2% | 98% | |
| 94 | 3% | 96% | |
| 95 | 2% | 94% | |
| 96 | 7% | 91% | |
| 97 | 7% | 84% | |
| 98 | 6% | 78% | |
| 99 | 9% | 72% | |
| 100 | 9% | 63% | Median |
| 101 | 11% | 54% | |
| 102 | 9% | 43% | |
| 103 | 7% | 34% | Last Result |
| 104 | 9% | 27% | |
| 105 | 4% | 17% | |
| 106 | 3% | 13% | |
| 107 | 6% | 11% | |
| 108 | 2% | 4% | |
| 109 | 2% | 3% | |
| 110 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 72 | 0.5% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 73 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 74 | 2% | 98% | |
| 75 | 2% | 96% | |
| 76 | 7% | 93% | |
| 77 | 3% | 86% | |
| 78 | 5% | 83% | |
| 79 | 10% | 78% | |
| 80 | 7% | 68% | |
| 81 | 10% | 61% | |
| 82 | 11% | 51% | |
| 83 | 9% | 40% | |
| 84 | 8% | 31% | Median |
| 85 | 5% | 22% | |
| 86 | 6% | 17% | |
| 87 | 6% | 11% | |
| 88 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 89 | 2% | 3% | |
| 90 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 69 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 70 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 71 | 2% | 97% | |
| 72 | 4% | 95% | Last Result |
| 73 | 5% | 91% | |
| 74 | 11% | 86% | |
| 75 | 8% | 75% | |
| 76 | 13% | 67% | |
| 77 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 78 | 7% | 46% | |
| 79 | 14% | 39% | |
| 80 | 7% | 25% | |
| 81 | 7% | 18% | |
| 82 | 4% | 10% | |
| 83 | 3% | 7% | |
| 84 | 2% | 3% | |
| 85 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 64 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 65 | 1.2% | 98.5% | |
| 66 | 2% | 97% | |
| 67 | 2% | 96% | |
| 68 | 5% | 93% | |
| 69 | 7% | 89% | |
| 70 | 7% | 81% | |
| 71 | 6% | 74% | |
| 72 | 9% | 68% | |
| 73 | 10% | 59% | |
| 74 | 7% | 49% | |
| 75 | 10% | 42% | |
| 76 | 11% | 32% | Median |
| 77 | 6% | 22% | |
| 78 | 5% | 16% | |
| 79 | 5% | 10% | |
| 80 | 3% | 6% | |
| 81 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 82 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 59 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98% | |
| 61 | 3% | 96% | |
| 62 | 4% | 93% | Last Result |
| 63 | 6% | 89% | |
| 64 | 5% | 83% | |
| 65 | 9% | 78% | |
| 66 | 6% | 69% | |
| 67 | 9% | 63% | |
| 68 | 8% | 53% | |
| 69 | 8% | 45% | |
| 70 | 11% | 37% | Median |
| 71 | 6% | 26% | |
| 72 | 8% | 20% | |
| 73 | 3% | 12% | |
| 74 | 5% | 9% | |
| 75 | 2% | 4% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 57 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 58 | 4% | 97% | |
| 59 | 4% | 93% | |
| 60 | 8% | 89% | |
| 61 | 9% | 81% | |
| 62 | 13% | 72% | Last Result |
| 63 | 11% | 59% | Median |
| 64 | 11% | 48% | |
| 65 | 11% | 37% | |
| 66 | 8% | 26% | |
| 67 | 8% | 18% | |
| 68 | 4% | 10% | |
| 69 | 3% | 6% | |
| 70 | 2% | 3% | |
| 71 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 49 | 1.4% | 98.6% | |
| 50 | 4% | 97% | |
| 51 | 4% | 93% | |
| 52 | 6% | 89% | Last Result |
| 53 | 11% | 83% | |
| 54 | 10% | 72% | |
| 55 | 14% | 61% | Median |
| 56 | 13% | 47% | |
| 57 | 10% | 34% | |
| 58 | 8% | 24% | |
| 59 | 6% | 16% | |
| 60 | 4% | 10% | |
| 61 | 3% | 6% | |
| 62 | 2% | 3% | |
| 63 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Research Affairs
- Commissioner(s): ÖSTERREICH
- Fieldwork period: 29 March–4 April 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1008
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.07%