Opinion Poll by Spectra for OÖNachrichten, 9–30 April 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 34.0% | 31.8–36.3% | 31.2–36.9% | 30.7–37.5% | 29.6–38.6% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 28.0% | 26.0–30.2% | 25.4–30.9% | 24.9–31.4% | 24.0–32.5% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 27.0% | 24.9–29.1% | 24.4–29.8% | 23.9–30.3% | 22.9–31.4% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.1–6.2% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.7–6.8% | 3.3–7.5% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.3–5.2% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.9–5.7% | 2.5–6.3% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% | 0.3–2.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 65 | 60–69 | 59–71 | 58–72 | 56–75 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 54 | 49–58 | 48–60 | 47–60 | 45–62 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 51 | 47–56 | 46–57 | 45–58 | 43–60 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 9 | 7–11 | 0–12 | 0–13 | 0–14 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 7 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–11 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98% | |
| 59 | 2% | 95% | |
| 60 | 4% | 94% | |
| 61 | 6% | 90% | |
| 62 | 5% | 84% | Last Result |
| 63 | 16% | 80% | |
| 64 | 8% | 64% | |
| 65 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 66 | 13% | 44% | |
| 67 | 11% | 31% | |
| 68 | 6% | 20% | |
| 69 | 6% | 14% | |
| 70 | 4% | 9% | |
| 71 | 2% | 5% | |
| 72 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 46 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98% | |
| 48 | 3% | 96% | |
| 49 | 7% | 93% | |
| 50 | 5% | 86% | |
| 51 | 11% | 81% | |
| 52 | 9% | 70% | Last Result |
| 53 | 11% | 61% | |
| 54 | 13% | 50% | Median |
| 55 | 14% | 37% | |
| 56 | 6% | 24% | |
| 57 | 6% | 17% | |
| 58 | 4% | 12% | |
| 59 | 2% | 8% | |
| 60 | 5% | 6% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 44 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 45 | 2% | 98% | |
| 46 | 4% | 96% | |
| 47 | 4% | 92% | |
| 48 | 8% | 89% | |
| 49 | 7% | 81% | |
| 50 | 15% | 74% | |
| 51 | 10% | 59% | Last Result, Median |
| 52 | 15% | 48% | |
| 53 | 10% | 33% | |
| 54 | 6% | 23% | |
| 55 | 5% | 17% | |
| 56 | 5% | 12% | |
| 57 | 3% | 6% | |
| 58 | 2% | 3% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 93% | |
| 2 | 0% | 93% | |
| 3 | 0% | 93% | |
| 4 | 0% | 93% | |
| 5 | 0% | 93% | |
| 6 | 0% | 93% | |
| 7 | 4% | 93% | |
| 8 | 19% | 89% | |
| 9 | 27% | 70% | Median |
| 10 | 20% | 43% | Last Result |
| 11 | 15% | 23% | |
| 12 | 5% | 8% | |
| 13 | 2% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 45% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 55% | |
| 2 | 0% | 55% | |
| 3 | 0% | 55% | |
| 4 | 0% | 55% | |
| 5 | 0% | 55% | |
| 6 | 0% | 55% | |
| 7 | 18% | 55% | Median |
| 8 | 20% | 37% | Last Result |
| 9 | 10% | 17% | |
| 10 | 5% | 7% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 118 | 100% | 113–124 | 111–126 | 110–127 | 108–132 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 116 | 100% | 111–121 | 109–123 | 107–124 | 105–128 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 105 | 100% | 99–110 | 98–112 | 96–114 | 94–116 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 72 | 74 | 0% | 69–78 | 67–80 | 66–81 | 63–84 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 74 | 0% | 69–78 | 67–80 | 66–81 | 63–84 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 65 | 0% | 60–69 | 59–71 | 58–72 | 56–75 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 65 | 0% | 60–69 | 59–71 | 58–72 | 56–75 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 63 | 0% | 57–67 | 55–68 | 54–69 | 51–72 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 54 | 0% | 49–58 | 48–60 | 47–60 | 45–62 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 109 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 110 | 2% | 98% | |
| 111 | 2% | 96% | |
| 112 | 3% | 94% | |
| 113 | 4% | 92% | |
| 114 | 5% | 88% | Last Result |
| 115 | 10% | 84% | |
| 116 | 14% | 74% | |
| 117 | 8% | 59% | |
| 118 | 7% | 52% | |
| 119 | 6% | 45% | Median |
| 120 | 4% | 39% | |
| 121 | 9% | 34% | |
| 122 | 7% | 25% | |
| 123 | 4% | 17% | |
| 124 | 6% | 13% | |
| 125 | 2% | 8% | |
| 126 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 127 | 2% | 4% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 129 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 130 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 132 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 104 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 106 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 107 | 2% | 98% | |
| 108 | 2% | 97% | |
| 109 | 3% | 95% | |
| 110 | 3% | 93% | |
| 111 | 3% | 90% | |
| 112 | 3% | 87% | |
| 113 | 3% | 84% | Last Result |
| 114 | 6% | 81% | |
| 115 | 17% | 74% | |
| 116 | 8% | 58% | Median |
| 117 | 10% | 50% | |
| 118 | 11% | 40% | |
| 119 | 12% | 28% | |
| 120 | 5% | 16% | |
| 121 | 3% | 11% | |
| 122 | 2% | 8% | |
| 123 | 3% | 6% | |
| 124 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 125 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 126 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 127 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 95 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 96 | 1.4% | 98.6% | |
| 97 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 98 | 2% | 96% | |
| 99 | 7% | 94% | |
| 100 | 4% | 86% | |
| 101 | 7% | 83% | |
| 102 | 8% | 76% | |
| 103 | 6% | 68% | Last Result |
| 104 | 8% | 62% | |
| 105 | 13% | 54% | Median |
| 106 | 5% | 41% | |
| 107 | 9% | 35% | |
| 108 | 6% | 27% | |
| 109 | 6% | 20% | |
| 110 | 5% | 14% | |
| 111 | 3% | 9% | |
| 112 | 2% | 6% | |
| 113 | 2% | 5% | |
| 114 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 115 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 116 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 65 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 66 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 67 | 2% | 96% | |
| 68 | 3% | 94% | |
| 69 | 4% | 92% | |
| 70 | 6% | 87% | |
| 71 | 11% | 81% | |
| 72 | 6% | 70% | Last Result |
| 73 | 8% | 64% | |
| 74 | 10% | 56% | Median |
| 75 | 11% | 45% | |
| 76 | 10% | 34% | |
| 77 | 7% | 24% | |
| 78 | 7% | 17% | |
| 79 | 4% | 10% | |
| 80 | 3% | 6% | |
| 81 | 2% | 3% | |
| 82 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 65 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 66 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 67 | 2% | 96% | |
| 68 | 3% | 94% | |
| 69 | 4% | 92% | |
| 70 | 6% | 87% | |
| 71 | 11% | 81% | |
| 72 | 6% | 70% | Last Result |
| 73 | 8% | 64% | |
| 74 | 10% | 56% | Median |
| 75 | 11% | 45% | |
| 76 | 10% | 34% | |
| 77 | 7% | 24% | |
| 78 | 7% | 17% | |
| 79 | 4% | 10% | |
| 80 | 3% | 6% | |
| 81 | 2% | 3% | |
| 82 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98% | |
| 59 | 2% | 95% | |
| 60 | 4% | 94% | |
| 61 | 6% | 90% | |
| 62 | 5% | 84% | Last Result |
| 63 | 16% | 80% | |
| 64 | 8% | 64% | |
| 65 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 66 | 13% | 44% | |
| 67 | 11% | 31% | |
| 68 | 6% | 20% | |
| 69 | 6% | 14% | |
| 70 | 4% | 9% | |
| 71 | 2% | 5% | |
| 72 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98% | |
| 59 | 2% | 95% | |
| 60 | 4% | 94% | |
| 61 | 6% | 90% | |
| 62 | 5% | 84% | Last Result |
| 63 | 16% | 80% | |
| 64 | 8% | 64% | |
| 65 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 66 | 13% | 44% | |
| 67 | 11% | 31% | |
| 68 | 6% | 20% | |
| 69 | 6% | 14% | |
| 70 | 4% | 9% | |
| 71 | 2% | 5% | |
| 72 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 53 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 54 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 55 | 2% | 97% | |
| 56 | 2% | 95% | |
| 57 | 3% | 93% | |
| 58 | 5% | 90% | |
| 59 | 8% | 85% | |
| 60 | 10% | 77% | |
| 61 | 10% | 68% | |
| 62 | 7% | 57% | Last Result |
| 63 | 7% | 50% | Median |
| 64 | 12% | 43% | |
| 65 | 11% | 31% | |
| 66 | 7% | 20% | |
| 67 | 4% | 13% | |
| 68 | 4% | 8% | |
| 69 | 2% | 4% | |
| 70 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 46 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98% | |
| 48 | 3% | 96% | |
| 49 | 7% | 93% | |
| 50 | 5% | 86% | |
| 51 | 11% | 81% | |
| 52 | 9% | 70% | Last Result |
| 53 | 11% | 61% | |
| 54 | 13% | 50% | Median |
| 55 | 14% | 37% | |
| 56 | 6% | 24% | |
| 57 | 6% | 17% | |
| 58 | 4% | 12% | |
| 59 | 2% | 8% | |
| 60 | 5% | 6% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Spectra
- Commissioner(s): OÖNachrichten
- Fieldwork period: 9–30 April 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 738
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.05%