Opinion Poll by Research Affairs for ÖSTERREICH, 10–16 May 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 32.0% | 30.2–34.0% | 29.7–34.5% | 29.2–35.0% | 28.4–35.9% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 27.0% | 25.2–28.8% | 24.8–29.4% | 24.3–29.8% | 23.5–30.7% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 23.0% | 21.4–24.8% | 20.9–25.3% | 20.5–25.7% | 19.8–26.6% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.6–7.6% | 4.3–8.1% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.8–4.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 62 | 58–66 | 56–67 | 55–68 | 54–71 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 52 | 48–56 | 47–57 | 46–58 | 44–60 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 44 | 41–48 | 40–49 | 39–50 | 37–52 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 11 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 8–15 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 9 | 8–11 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0–7 | 0–8 | 0–8 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 55 | 1.5% | 98.9% | |
| 56 | 3% | 97% | |
| 57 | 3% | 94% | |
| 58 | 8% | 92% | |
| 59 | 6% | 84% | |
| 60 | 16% | 78% | |
| 61 | 9% | 62% | |
| 62 | 15% | 52% | Last Result, Median |
| 63 | 9% | 38% | |
| 64 | 10% | 29% | |
| 65 | 6% | 19% | |
| 66 | 5% | 13% | |
| 67 | 4% | 8% | |
| 68 | 2% | 4% | |
| 69 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 46 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 47 | 4% | 97% | |
| 48 | 7% | 93% | |
| 49 | 8% | 86% | |
| 50 | 14% | 78% | |
| 51 | 12% | 64% | |
| 52 | 11% | 51% | Last Result, Median |
| 53 | 10% | 40% | |
| 54 | 9% | 30% | |
| 55 | 8% | 21% | |
| 56 | 6% | 13% | |
| 57 | 3% | 7% | |
| 58 | 2% | 4% | |
| 59 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 39 | 3% | 98% | |
| 40 | 4% | 95% | |
| 41 | 8% | 91% | |
| 42 | 13% | 84% | |
| 43 | 15% | 70% | |
| 44 | 13% | 55% | Median |
| 45 | 11% | 42% | |
| 46 | 10% | 32% | |
| 47 | 10% | 21% | |
| 48 | 5% | 12% | |
| 49 | 3% | 7% | |
| 50 | 2% | 4% | |
| 51 | 0.8% | 2% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 9 | 9% | 98% | |
| 10 | 22% | 89% | Last Result |
| 11 | 25% | 67% | Median |
| 12 | 22% | 42% | |
| 13 | 13% | 21% | |
| 14 | 6% | 8% | |
| 15 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 94% | |
| 2 | 0% | 94% | |
| 3 | 0% | 94% | |
| 4 | 0% | 94% | |
| 5 | 0% | 94% | |
| 6 | 0% | 94% | |
| 7 | 3% | 94% | |
| 8 | 23% | 92% | |
| 9 | 28% | 69% | Median |
| 10 | 21% | 41% | |
| 11 | 14% | 20% | |
| 12 | 5% | 7% | |
| 13 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 5% | |
| 7 | 2% | 5% | |
| 8 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 113 | 100% | 108–119 | 107–121 | 106–122 | 103–125 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 106 | 100% | 101–111 | 100–113 | 98–114 | 96–118 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 96 | 87% | 91–102 | 90–103 | 89–104 | 86–106 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 72 | 82 | 0.2% | 77–86 | 76–88 | 74–90 | 71–91 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 73 | 0% | 69–77 | 67–79 | 66–80 | 65–83 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 72 | 0% | 67–77 | 66–78 | 65–79 | 62–81 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 71 | 0% | 66–75 | 65–76 | 63–78 | 60–79 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 62 | 0% | 58–66 | 56–67 | 55–68 | 54–71 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 52 | 0% | 48–56 | 47–57 | 46–58 | 44–60 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 104 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 105 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 106 | 2% | 98% | |
| 107 | 3% | 96% | |
| 108 | 5% | 93% | |
| 109 | 8% | 89% | |
| 110 | 6% | 81% | |
| 111 | 7% | 75% | |
| 112 | 12% | 68% | |
| 113 | 6% | 56% | |
| 114 | 9% | 49% | Last Result, Median |
| 115 | 8% | 41% | |
| 116 | 6% | 32% | |
| 117 | 6% | 26% | |
| 118 | 7% | 20% | |
| 119 | 5% | 13% | |
| 120 | 3% | 9% | |
| 121 | 3% | 5% | |
| 122 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 123 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 125 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 97 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 98 | 2% | 98% | |
| 99 | 2% | 97% | |
| 100 | 3% | 95% | |
| 101 | 6% | 92% | |
| 102 | 5% | 86% | |
| 103 | 10% | 82% | |
| 104 | 14% | 72% | |
| 105 | 6% | 58% | |
| 106 | 10% | 51% | Median |
| 107 | 9% | 41% | |
| 108 | 7% | 32% | |
| 109 | 6% | 25% | |
| 110 | 6% | 19% | |
| 111 | 4% | 13% | |
| 112 | 4% | 10% | |
| 113 | 2% | 6% | Last Result |
| 114 | 2% | 4% | |
| 115 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 117 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 118 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 87 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 88 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 89 | 2% | 98% | |
| 90 | 3% | 96% | |
| 91 | 6% | 93% | |
| 92 | 10% | 87% | Majority |
| 93 | 7% | 77% | |
| 94 | 6% | 69% | |
| 95 | 8% | 64% | |
| 96 | 11% | 56% | Median |
| 97 | 11% | 46% | |
| 98 | 10% | 35% | |
| 99 | 7% | 25% | |
| 100 | 3% | 18% | |
| 101 | 4% | 15% | |
| 102 | 3% | 11% | |
| 103 | 5% | 8% | Last Result |
| 104 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 105 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 99.0% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 74 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 75 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 76 | 2% | 95% | |
| 77 | 3% | 93% | |
| 78 | 4% | 90% | |
| 79 | 13% | 86% | |
| 80 | 14% | 73% | |
| 81 | 7% | 59% | |
| 82 | 6% | 52% | Median |
| 83 | 6% | 46% | |
| 84 | 15% | 40% | |
| 85 | 9% | 25% | |
| 86 | 7% | 16% | |
| 87 | 2% | 8% | |
| 88 | 1.5% | 6% | |
| 89 | 2% | 4% | |
| 90 | 2% | 3% | |
| 91 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 66 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 67 | 2% | 97% | |
| 68 | 4% | 95% | |
| 69 | 7% | 91% | |
| 70 | 7% | 84% | |
| 71 | 13% | 77% | |
| 72 | 10% | 64% | Last Result |
| 73 | 10% | 53% | Median |
| 74 | 11% | 43% | |
| 75 | 8% | 32% | |
| 76 | 8% | 24% | |
| 77 | 7% | 16% | |
| 78 | 2% | 9% | |
| 79 | 2% | 6% | |
| 80 | 2% | 4% | |
| 81 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 0.6% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 64 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98% | |
| 66 | 3% | 96% | |
| 67 | 3% | 93% | |
| 68 | 5% | 90% | |
| 69 | 10% | 85% | |
| 70 | 6% | 75% | |
| 71 | 14% | 69% | |
| 72 | 12% | 55% | Median |
| 73 | 10% | 43% | |
| 74 | 8% | 33% | |
| 75 | 8% | 25% | |
| 76 | 6% | 17% | |
| 77 | 4% | 12% | |
| 78 | 3% | 7% | |
| 79 | 2% | 4% | |
| 80 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 62 | 0.7% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 63 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 64 | 2% | 97% | |
| 65 | 2% | 95% | |
| 66 | 3% | 93% | |
| 67 | 7% | 89% | |
| 68 | 9% | 83% | |
| 69 | 13% | 74% | |
| 70 | 11% | 61% | |
| 71 | 7% | 50% | Median |
| 72 | 12% | 44% | |
| 73 | 11% | 32% | |
| 74 | 9% | 21% | |
| 75 | 4% | 12% | |
| 76 | 3% | 8% | |
| 77 | 2% | 5% | |
| 78 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 79 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 55 | 1.5% | 98.9% | |
| 56 | 3% | 97% | |
| 57 | 3% | 94% | |
| 58 | 8% | 92% | |
| 59 | 6% | 84% | |
| 60 | 16% | 78% | |
| 61 | 9% | 62% | |
| 62 | 15% | 52% | Last Result, Median |
| 63 | 9% | 38% | |
| 64 | 10% | 29% | |
| 65 | 6% | 19% | |
| 66 | 5% | 13% | |
| 67 | 4% | 8% | |
| 68 | 2% | 4% | |
| 69 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 46 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 47 | 4% | 97% | |
| 48 | 7% | 93% | |
| 49 | 8% | 86% | |
| 50 | 14% | 78% | |
| 51 | 12% | 64% | |
| 52 | 11% | 51% | Last Result, Median |
| 53 | 10% | 40% | |
| 54 | 9% | 30% | |
| 55 | 8% | 21% | |
| 56 | 6% | 13% | |
| 57 | 3% | 7% | |
| 58 | 2% | 4% | |
| 59 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Research Affairs
- Commissioner(s): ÖSTERREICH
- Fieldwork period: 10–16 May 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1008
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.88%