Opinion Poll by Spectra for OÖNachrichten, 9 May–5 June 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 33.1% | 30.9–35.3% | 30.3–36.0% | 29.7–36.6% | 28.7–37.7% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 28.0% | 25.9–30.2% | 25.4–30.8% | 24.9–31.4% | 23.9–32.4% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 27.0% | 25.0–29.2% | 24.4–29.9% | 23.9–30.4% | 23.0–31.5% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.8–5.6% | 2.4–6.2% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.8–5.6% | 2.4–6.2% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% | 2.0–4.5% | 1.7–5.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 65 | 60–70 | 59–72 | 58–74 | 55–76 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 55 | 50–60 | 49–61 | 48–63 | 46–65 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 53 | 48–58 | 47–59 | 46–59 | 44–62 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 7 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–12 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 7 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–11 | 0–12 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–7 | 0–8 | 0–9 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 57 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98% | |
| 59 | 3% | 95% | |
| 60 | 5% | 92% | |
| 61 | 6% | 87% | |
| 62 | 7% | 81% | Last Result |
| 63 | 5% | 74% | |
| 64 | 9% | 69% | |
| 65 | 11% | 60% | Median |
| 66 | 10% | 49% | |
| 67 | 16% | 40% | |
| 68 | 5% | 24% | |
| 69 | 7% | 19% | |
| 70 | 3% | 12% | |
| 71 | 2% | 9% | |
| 72 | 3% | 7% | |
| 73 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 74 | 2% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 47 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 48 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 49 | 4% | 97% | |
| 50 | 5% | 93% | |
| 51 | 4% | 89% | Last Result |
| 52 | 6% | 84% | |
| 53 | 8% | 78% | |
| 54 | 10% | 70% | |
| 55 | 10% | 59% | Median |
| 56 | 13% | 49% | |
| 57 | 12% | 36% | |
| 58 | 6% | 24% | |
| 59 | 6% | 19% | |
| 60 | 5% | 13% | |
| 61 | 3% | 8% | |
| 62 | 2% | 5% | |
| 63 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 64 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 45 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 46 | 2% | 98% | |
| 47 | 3% | 96% | |
| 48 | 6% | 94% | |
| 49 | 8% | 88% | |
| 50 | 7% | 80% | |
| 51 | 9% | 73% | |
| 52 | 9% | 64% | Last Result |
| 53 | 15% | 55% | Median |
| 54 | 10% | 40% | |
| 55 | 6% | 30% | |
| 56 | 5% | 24% | |
| 57 | 9% | 19% | |
| 58 | 4% | 10% | |
| 59 | 4% | 6% | |
| 60 | 2% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 47% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 53% | |
| 2 | 0% | 53% | |
| 3 | 0% | 53% | |
| 4 | 0% | 53% | |
| 5 | 0% | 53% | |
| 6 | 0% | 53% | |
| 7 | 5% | 53% | Median |
| 8 | 27% | 48% | |
| 9 | 12% | 21% | |
| 10 | 7% | 10% | Last Result |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 45% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 55% | |
| 2 | 0% | 55% | |
| 3 | 0% | 55% | |
| 4 | 0% | 55% | |
| 5 | 0% | 55% | |
| 6 | 0% | 55% | |
| 7 | 7% | 55% | Median |
| 8 | 22% | 48% | Last Result |
| 9 | 16% | 25% | |
| 10 | 6% | 9% | |
| 11 | 2% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 6% | |
| 7 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 8 | 3% | 4% | |
| 9 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 121 | 100% | 114–127 | 112–129 | 110–131 | 108–134 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 119 | 100% | 111–125 | 110–126 | 108–127 | 105–130 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 103 | 108 | 100% | 101–115 | 100–116 | 99–118 | 96–120 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 72 | 70 | 0% | 65–76 | 63–78 | 61–80 | 59–82 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 70 | 0% | 64–76 | 62–77 | 60–79 | 58–81 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 66 | 0% | 60–71 | 59–73 | 58–74 | 56–77 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 65 | 0% | 60–70 | 59–72 | 58–74 | 55–76 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 58 | 0% | 52–64 | 50–65 | 49–67 | 47–71 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 53 | 0% | 48–58 | 47–59 | 46–59 | 44–62 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 108 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 109 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 110 | 1.4% | 98.6% | |
| 111 | 2% | 97% | |
| 112 | 2% | 95% | |
| 113 | 3% | 94% | Last Result |
| 114 | 4% | 90% | |
| 115 | 4% | 87% | |
| 116 | 4% | 82% | |
| 117 | 6% | 78% | |
| 118 | 8% | 72% | |
| 119 | 7% | 64% | |
| 120 | 7% | 58% | Median |
| 121 | 6% | 51% | |
| 122 | 7% | 45% | |
| 123 | 11% | 37% | |
| 124 | 6% | 26% | |
| 125 | 4% | 20% | |
| 126 | 4% | 16% | |
| 127 | 3% | 12% | |
| 128 | 2% | 9% | |
| 129 | 2% | 7% | |
| 130 | 2% | 5% | |
| 131 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 132 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 133 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 134 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 106 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 107 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 108 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 109 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 110 | 3% | 95% | |
| 111 | 4% | 93% | |
| 112 | 4% | 88% | |
| 113 | 5% | 84% | |
| 114 | 5% | 79% | Last Result |
| 115 | 3% | 74% | |
| 116 | 8% | 71% | |
| 117 | 7% | 63% | |
| 118 | 4% | 56% | Median |
| 119 | 13% | 51% | |
| 120 | 7% | 38% | |
| 121 | 5% | 31% | |
| 122 | 7% | 26% | |
| 123 | 5% | 19% | |
| 124 | 3% | 14% | |
| 125 | 3% | 11% | |
| 126 | 4% | 8% | |
| 127 | 2% | 5% | |
| 128 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 130 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 97 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 98 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 99 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 100 | 3% | 96% | |
| 101 | 4% | 93% | |
| 102 | 4% | 89% | |
| 103 | 4% | 85% | Last Result |
| 104 | 4% | 81% | |
| 105 | 5% | 77% | |
| 106 | 6% | 72% | |
| 107 | 10% | 66% | |
| 108 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 109 | 7% | 43% | |
| 110 | 7% | 36% | |
| 111 | 8% | 29% | |
| 112 | 1.3% | 21% | |
| 113 | 6% | 20% | |
| 114 | 3% | 15% | |
| 115 | 3% | 12% | |
| 116 | 5% | 9% | |
| 117 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 118 | 3% | 4% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 120 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 60 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 63 | 4% | 96% | |
| 64 | 0.7% | 92% | |
| 65 | 9% | 91% | |
| 66 | 3% | 82% | |
| 67 | 13% | 79% | |
| 68 | 7% | 66% | |
| 69 | 6% | 59% | |
| 70 | 8% | 53% | |
| 71 | 4% | 45% | |
| 72 | 9% | 42% | Last Result, Median |
| 73 | 4% | 33% | |
| 74 | 7% | 29% | |
| 75 | 6% | 22% | |
| 76 | 8% | 16% | |
| 77 | 3% | 8% | |
| 78 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 79 | 2% | 4% | |
| 80 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 81 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 60 | 1.3% | 98.7% | |
| 61 | 2% | 97% | |
| 62 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 63 | 4% | 95% | |
| 64 | 1.1% | 91% | |
| 65 | 9% | 90% | |
| 66 | 3% | 80% | |
| 67 | 12% | 77% | |
| 68 | 7% | 64% | |
| 69 | 7% | 57% | |
| 70 | 8% | 50% | |
| 71 | 4% | 42% | |
| 72 | 8% | 38% | Last Result, Median |
| 73 | 4% | 30% | |
| 74 | 7% | 26% | |
| 75 | 6% | 19% | |
| 76 | 7% | 13% | |
| 77 | 2% | 6% | |
| 78 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 79 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 80 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98% | |
| 59 | 3% | 96% | |
| 60 | 5% | 93% | |
| 61 | 5% | 89% | |
| 62 | 7% | 84% | Last Result |
| 63 | 5% | 77% | |
| 64 | 8% | 72% | |
| 65 | 10% | 63% | Median |
| 66 | 9% | 53% | |
| 67 | 16% | 44% | |
| 68 | 5% | 28% | |
| 69 | 7% | 22% | |
| 70 | 4% | 15% | |
| 71 | 2% | 11% | |
| 72 | 4% | 9% | |
| 73 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 74 | 2% | 4% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 57 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98% | |
| 59 | 3% | 95% | |
| 60 | 5% | 92% | |
| 61 | 6% | 87% | |
| 62 | 7% | 81% | Last Result |
| 63 | 5% | 74% | |
| 64 | 9% | 69% | |
| 65 | 11% | 60% | Median |
| 66 | 10% | 49% | |
| 67 | 16% | 40% | |
| 68 | 5% | 24% | |
| 69 | 7% | 19% | |
| 70 | 3% | 12% | |
| 71 | 2% | 9% | |
| 72 | 3% | 7% | |
| 73 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 74 | 2% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 48 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 49 | 2% | 98% | |
| 50 | 3% | 96% | |
| 51 | 3% | 93% | |
| 52 | 3% | 90% | |
| 53 | 6% | 87% | |
| 54 | 9% | 81% | |
| 55 | 5% | 72% | |
| 56 | 7% | 67% | |
| 57 | 7% | 60% | |
| 58 | 6% | 52% | |
| 59 | 9% | 46% | |
| 60 | 11% | 38% | Median |
| 61 | 7% | 27% | |
| 62 | 4% | 21% | Last Result |
| 63 | 3% | 17% | |
| 64 | 4% | 13% | |
| 65 | 6% | 10% | |
| 66 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 67 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 68 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 69 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 45 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 46 | 2% | 98% | |
| 47 | 3% | 96% | |
| 48 | 6% | 94% | |
| 49 | 8% | 88% | |
| 50 | 7% | 80% | |
| 51 | 9% | 73% | |
| 52 | 9% | 64% | Last Result |
| 53 | 15% | 55% | Median |
| 54 | 10% | 40% | |
| 55 | 6% | 30% | |
| 56 | 5% | 24% | |
| 57 | 9% | 19% | |
| 58 | 4% | 10% | |
| 59 | 4% | 6% | |
| 60 | 2% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Spectra
- Commissioner(s): OÖNachrichten
- Fieldwork period: 9 May–5 June 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 732
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.68%