Opinion Poll by Unique Research for profil, 18–21 June 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 33.0% | 30.9–35.2% | 30.3–35.8% | 29.8–36.3% | 28.8–37.4% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 27.0% | 25.1–29.1% | 24.5–29.7% | 24.0–30.2% | 23.1–31.2% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 25.0% | 23.1–27.0% | 22.6–27.6% | 22.1–28.1% | 21.2–29.1% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.0–8.3% | 5.7–8.7% | 5.4–9.0% | 5.0–9.6% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.9–5.6% | 2.5–6.1% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.2% | 2.0–4.4% | 1.8–4.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 64 | 59–68 | 58–69 | 57–71 | 55–73 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 52 | 48–57 | 47–58 | 46–59 | 44–61 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 48 | 44–53 | 43–54 | 42–55 | 41–57 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 13 | 11–16 | 11–16 | 10–17 | 9–18 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 7 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–11 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0–7 | 0–8 | 0–9 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 57 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 58 | 3% | 97% | |
| 59 | 5% | 94% | |
| 60 | 8% | 89% | |
| 61 | 7% | 81% | |
| 62 | 10% | 74% | Last Result |
| 63 | 8% | 65% | |
| 64 | 10% | 56% | Median |
| 65 | 13% | 46% | |
| 66 | 8% | 33% | |
| 67 | 9% | 25% | |
| 68 | 7% | 17% | |
| 69 | 5% | 9% | |
| 70 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 71 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 45 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 46 | 2% | 98% | |
| 47 | 3% | 96% | |
| 48 | 8% | 93% | |
| 49 | 6% | 86% | |
| 50 | 8% | 80% | |
| 51 | 12% | 72% | |
| 52 | 12% | 60% | Last Result, Median |
| 53 | 11% | 47% | |
| 54 | 13% | 36% | |
| 55 | 6% | 23% | |
| 56 | 7% | 17% | |
| 57 | 5% | 10% | |
| 58 | 2% | 5% | |
| 59 | 2% | 3% | |
| 60 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 42 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 43 | 3% | 97% | |
| 44 | 6% | 94% | |
| 45 | 7% | 88% | |
| 46 | 12% | 81% | |
| 47 | 8% | 69% | |
| 48 | 14% | 61% | Median |
| 49 | 9% | 47% | |
| 50 | 11% | 38% | |
| 51 | 9% | 26% | Last Result |
| 52 | 7% | 17% | |
| 53 | 5% | 10% | |
| 54 | 2% | 5% | |
| 55 | 3% | 3% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 3% | 98.9% | Last Result |
| 11 | 12% | 96% | |
| 12 | 17% | 84% | |
| 13 | 22% | 67% | Median |
| 14 | 21% | 45% | |
| 15 | 13% | 24% | |
| 16 | 7% | 11% | |
| 17 | 3% | 4% | |
| 18 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 47% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 53% | |
| 2 | 0% | 53% | |
| 3 | 0% | 53% | |
| 4 | 0% | 53% | |
| 5 | 0% | 53% | |
| 6 | 0% | 53% | |
| 7 | 9% | 53% | Median |
| 8 | 23% | 44% | |
| 9 | 16% | 22% | |
| 10 | 4% | 6% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 8% | |
| 6 | 0% | 8% | |
| 7 | 4% | 8% | |
| 8 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 116 | 100% | 110–122 | 109–123 | 108–124 | 105–126 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 112 | 100% | 107–118 | 105–119 | 104–120 | 101–123 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 101 | 99.0% | 95–106 | 94–107 | 92–108 | 90–111 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 72 | 82 | 0.4% | 77–87 | 75–89 | 74–89 | 70–91 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 77 | 0% | 72–82 | 71–83 | 70–85 | 68–88 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 70 | 0% | 65–76 | 63–77 | 62–78 | 60–81 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 68 | 0% | 63–74 | 61–76 | 60–76 | 58–78 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 64 | 0% | 59–68 | 58–69 | 57–71 | 55–73 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 52 | 0% | 48–57 | 47–58 | 46–59 | 44–61 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 106 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 107 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 108 | 2% | 98% | |
| 109 | 3% | 97% | |
| 110 | 5% | 94% | |
| 111 | 5% | 89% | |
| 112 | 7% | 85% | |
| 113 | 6% | 78% | |
| 114 | 7% | 72% | Last Result |
| 115 | 9% | 65% | |
| 116 | 7% | 56% | Median |
| 117 | 9% | 49% | |
| 118 | 9% | 40% | |
| 119 | 7% | 31% | |
| 120 | 5% | 24% | |
| 121 | 6% | 19% | |
| 122 | 5% | 13% | |
| 123 | 4% | 8% | |
| 124 | 2% | 4% | |
| 125 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 126 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 127 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 102 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 103 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 104 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 105 | 4% | 97% | |
| 106 | 3% | 93% | |
| 107 | 5% | 90% | |
| 108 | 4% | 85% | |
| 109 | 5% | 81% | |
| 110 | 13% | 76% | |
| 111 | 7% | 64% | |
| 112 | 7% | 56% | Median |
| 113 | 10% | 49% | Last Result |
| 114 | 3% | 39% | |
| 115 | 11% | 35% | |
| 116 | 9% | 24% | |
| 117 | 3% | 16% | |
| 118 | 7% | 12% | |
| 119 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 120 | 3% | 5% | |
| 121 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 123 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 91 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 92 | 2% | 99.0% | Majority |
| 93 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 94 | 5% | 96% | |
| 95 | 3% | 92% | |
| 96 | 3% | 88% | |
| 97 | 9% | 85% | |
| 98 | 7% | 76% | |
| 99 | 8% | 69% | |
| 100 | 10% | 61% | Median |
| 101 | 8% | 51% | |
| 102 | 10% | 43% | |
| 103 | 7% | 33% | Last Result |
| 104 | 7% | 26% | |
| 105 | 4% | 20% | |
| 106 | 8% | 15% | |
| 107 | 3% | 7% | |
| 108 | 2% | 4% | |
| 109 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 72 | 0.6% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0.9% | 98.7% | |
| 74 | 2% | 98% | |
| 75 | 2% | 96% | |
| 76 | 3% | 94% | |
| 77 | 9% | 90% | |
| 78 | 5% | 81% | |
| 79 | 8% | 77% | |
| 80 | 8% | 69% | |
| 81 | 9% | 61% | |
| 82 | 8% | 52% | |
| 83 | 10% | 44% | |
| 84 | 8% | 34% | Median |
| 85 | 6% | 26% | |
| 86 | 8% | 20% | |
| 87 | 3% | 12% | |
| 88 | 3% | 9% | |
| 89 | 4% | 6% | |
| 90 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 91 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 68 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 69 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 70 | 2% | 98% | |
| 71 | 3% | 96% | |
| 72 | 5% | 93% | Last Result |
| 73 | 7% | 89% | |
| 74 | 4% | 82% | |
| 75 | 9% | 77% | |
| 76 | 8% | 68% | |
| 77 | 17% | 60% | Median |
| 78 | 7% | 43% | |
| 79 | 7% | 36% | |
| 80 | 7% | 29% | |
| 81 | 6% | 21% | |
| 82 | 5% | 15% | |
| 83 | 6% | 10% | |
| 84 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 85 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 86 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 88 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 63 | 3% | 97% | |
| 64 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 65 | 7% | 92% | |
| 66 | 5% | 85% | |
| 67 | 8% | 80% | |
| 68 | 11% | 71% | |
| 69 | 4% | 60% | |
| 70 | 10% | 56% | |
| 71 | 7% | 46% | |
| 72 | 7% | 39% | Median |
| 73 | 12% | 31% | |
| 74 | 4% | 19% | |
| 75 | 4% | 15% | |
| 76 | 4% | 11% | |
| 77 | 2% | 7% | |
| 78 | 3% | 5% | |
| 79 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 59 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 60 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 61 | 3% | 97% | |
| 62 | 1.3% | 94% | Last Result |
| 63 | 4% | 93% | |
| 64 | 5% | 89% | |
| 65 | 10% | 83% | |
| 66 | 7% | 74% | |
| 67 | 8% | 66% | |
| 68 | 12% | 58% | |
| 69 | 10% | 47% | |
| 70 | 7% | 37% | |
| 71 | 5% | 30% | Median |
| 72 | 5% | 25% | |
| 73 | 7% | 20% | |
| 74 | 3% | 13% | |
| 75 | 4% | 10% | |
| 76 | 3% | 5% | |
| 77 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 57 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 58 | 3% | 97% | |
| 59 | 5% | 94% | |
| 60 | 8% | 89% | |
| 61 | 7% | 81% | |
| 62 | 10% | 74% | Last Result |
| 63 | 8% | 65% | |
| 64 | 10% | 56% | Median |
| 65 | 13% | 46% | |
| 66 | 8% | 33% | |
| 67 | 9% | 25% | |
| 68 | 7% | 17% | |
| 69 | 5% | 9% | |
| 70 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 71 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 45 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 46 | 2% | 98% | |
| 47 | 3% | 96% | |
| 48 | 8% | 93% | |
| 49 | 6% | 86% | |
| 50 | 8% | 80% | |
| 51 | 12% | 72% | |
| 52 | 12% | 60% | Last Result, Median |
| 53 | 11% | 47% | |
| 54 | 13% | 36% | |
| 55 | 6% | 23% | |
| 56 | 7% | 17% | |
| 57 | 5% | 10% | |
| 58 | 2% | 5% | |
| 59 | 2% | 3% | |
| 60 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Unique Research
- Commissioner(s): profil
- Fieldwork period: 18–21 June 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.20%