Opinion Poll by Research Affairs for ÖSTERREICH, 21–27 June 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 32.7% | 30.8–34.6% | 30.3–35.2% | 29.8–35.6% | 29.0–36.6% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 25.7% | 24.0–27.5% | 23.5–28.0% | 23.1–28.5% | 22.3–29.4% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 24.8% | 23.1–26.6% | 22.6–27.1% | 22.2–27.6% | 21.4–28.5% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 62 | 58–67 | 57–68 | 56–69 | 55–72 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 49 | 45–53 | 44–54 | 44–55 | 42–57 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 47 | 44–51 | 43–52 | 42–53 | 40–55 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 11 | 10–13 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 8–15 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 9 | 8–11 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 56 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 57 | 3% | 97% | |
| 58 | 5% | 95% | |
| 59 | 7% | 90% | |
| 60 | 10% | 83% | |
| 61 | 15% | 73% | |
| 62 | 10% | 58% | Last Result, Median |
| 63 | 11% | 48% | |
| 64 | 11% | 37% | |
| 65 | 7% | 26% | |
| 66 | 8% | 19% | |
| 67 | 5% | 11% | |
| 68 | 3% | 6% | |
| 69 | 2% | 3% | |
| 70 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 43 | 1.5% | 99.2% | |
| 44 | 3% | 98% | |
| 45 | 5% | 95% | |
| 46 | 8% | 90% | |
| 47 | 9% | 81% | |
| 48 | 12% | 72% | |
| 49 | 16% | 60% | Median |
| 50 | 11% | 44% | |
| 51 | 13% | 33% | |
| 52 | 8% | 20% | Last Result |
| 53 | 5% | 12% | |
| 54 | 3% | 7% | |
| 55 | 2% | 4% | |
| 56 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 42 | 2% | 98% | |
| 43 | 3% | 96% | |
| 44 | 7% | 93% | |
| 45 | 13% | 86% | |
| 46 | 11% | 72% | |
| 47 | 13% | 61% | Median |
| 48 | 14% | 49% | |
| 49 | 11% | 34% | |
| 50 | 10% | 24% | |
| 51 | 4% | 14% | Last Result |
| 52 | 5% | 9% | |
| 53 | 2% | 4% | |
| 54 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 9 | 8% | 98% | |
| 10 | 23% | 90% | Last Result |
| 11 | 23% | 67% | Median |
| 12 | 24% | 44% | |
| 13 | 13% | 20% | |
| 14 | 5% | 7% | |
| 15 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 95% | |
| 2 | 0% | 95% | |
| 3 | 0% | 95% | |
| 4 | 0% | 95% | |
| 5 | 0% | 95% | |
| 6 | 0% | 95% | |
| 7 | 4% | 95% | |
| 8 | 21% | 91% | |
| 9 | 31% | 70% | Median |
| 10 | 19% | 39% | |
| 11 | 13% | 20% | |
| 12 | 5% | 6% | |
| 13 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 112 | 100% | 107–117 | 105–118 | 104–120 | 102–123 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 110 | 100% | 105–115 | 104–117 | 103–117 | 101–120 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 96 | 91% | 92–101 | 91–103 | 90–104 | 87–107 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 72 | 83 | 0.7% | 78–87 | 77–88 | 75–90 | 73–92 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 74 | 0% | 69–78 | 68–79 | 67–80 | 65–83 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 71 | 0% | 67–76 | 65–77 | 64–78 | 61–80 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 70 | 0% | 65–74 | 63–75 | 62–76 | 59–78 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 62 | 0% | 58–67 | 57–68 | 56–69 | 55–72 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 49 | 0% | 45–53 | 44–54 | 44–55 | 42–57 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 103 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 104 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 105 | 2% | 97% | |
| 106 | 4% | 94% | |
| 107 | 7% | 91% | |
| 108 | 4% | 84% | |
| 109 | 9% | 79% | |
| 110 | 11% | 70% | |
| 111 | 8% | 59% | Median |
| 112 | 11% | 51% | |
| 113 | 8% | 40% | |
| 114 | 9% | 32% | Last Result |
| 115 | 7% | 24% | |
| 116 | 6% | 17% | |
| 117 | 3% | 11% | |
| 118 | 4% | 8% | |
| 119 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 120 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 121 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 123 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 101 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 102 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 103 | 2% | 98% | |
| 104 | 3% | 96% | |
| 105 | 7% | 92% | |
| 106 | 8% | 85% | |
| 107 | 7% | 77% | |
| 108 | 6% | 70% | |
| 109 | 11% | 64% | Median |
| 110 | 9% | 53% | |
| 111 | 12% | 45% | |
| 112 | 8% | 33% | |
| 113 | 6% | 24% | Last Result |
| 114 | 4% | 18% | |
| 115 | 5% | 15% | |
| 116 | 5% | 10% | |
| 117 | 3% | 5% | |
| 118 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 119 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 120 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 88 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 89 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 90 | 3% | 98% | |
| 91 | 4% | 95% | |
| 92 | 6% | 91% | Majority |
| 93 | 5% | 85% | |
| 94 | 9% | 79% | |
| 95 | 8% | 71% | |
| 96 | 12% | 62% | Median |
| 97 | 9% | 50% | |
| 98 | 8% | 41% | |
| 99 | 10% | 33% | |
| 100 | 7% | 23% | |
| 101 | 7% | 16% | |
| 102 | 3% | 9% | |
| 103 | 1.0% | 5% | Last Result |
| 104 | 2% | 4% | |
| 105 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 106 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 107 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 75 | 2% | 98% | |
| 76 | 2% | 97% | |
| 77 | 4% | 95% | |
| 78 | 4% | 91% | |
| 79 | 8% | 87% | |
| 80 | 5% | 78% | |
| 81 | 8% | 73% | |
| 82 | 12% | 65% | Median |
| 83 | 12% | 53% | |
| 84 | 12% | 42% | |
| 85 | 8% | 30% | |
| 86 | 6% | 22% | |
| 87 | 6% | 16% | |
| 88 | 5% | 10% | |
| 89 | 2% | 5% | |
| 90 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 91 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 92 | 0.4% | 0.7% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 68 | 3% | 97% | |
| 69 | 4% | 94% | |
| 70 | 5% | 89% | |
| 71 | 13% | 84% | |
| 72 | 9% | 72% | Last Result |
| 73 | 12% | 63% | Median |
| 74 | 11% | 51% | |
| 75 | 10% | 41% | |
| 76 | 10% | 31% | |
| 77 | 7% | 21% | |
| 78 | 5% | 14% | |
| 79 | 5% | 9% | |
| 80 | 2% | 5% | |
| 81 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 64 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 65 | 3% | 97% | |
| 66 | 3% | 94% | |
| 67 | 4% | 91% | |
| 68 | 6% | 87% | |
| 69 | 10% | 81% | |
| 70 | 10% | 70% | |
| 71 | 11% | 60% | Median |
| 72 | 10% | 49% | |
| 73 | 11% | 38% | |
| 74 | 8% | 28% | |
| 75 | 8% | 20% | |
| 76 | 4% | 12% | |
| 77 | 3% | 7% | |
| 78 | 2% | 4% | |
| 79 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 61 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 63 | 2% | 96% | |
| 64 | 1.5% | 94% | |
| 65 | 4% | 93% | |
| 66 | 9% | 88% | |
| 67 | 11% | 79% | |
| 68 | 9% | 68% | |
| 69 | 7% | 59% | Median |
| 70 | 11% | 52% | |
| 71 | 13% | 42% | |
| 72 | 13% | 29% | |
| 73 | 5% | 17% | |
| 74 | 4% | 11% | |
| 75 | 2% | 7% | |
| 76 | 2% | 5% | |
| 77 | 2% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 56 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 57 | 3% | 97% | |
| 58 | 5% | 95% | |
| 59 | 7% | 90% | |
| 60 | 10% | 83% | |
| 61 | 15% | 73% | |
| 62 | 10% | 58% | Last Result, Median |
| 63 | 11% | 48% | |
| 64 | 11% | 37% | |
| 65 | 7% | 26% | |
| 66 | 8% | 19% | |
| 67 | 5% | 11% | |
| 68 | 3% | 6% | |
| 69 | 2% | 3% | |
| 70 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 43 | 1.5% | 99.2% | |
| 44 | 3% | 98% | |
| 45 | 5% | 95% | |
| 46 | 8% | 90% | |
| 47 | 9% | 81% | |
| 48 | 12% | 72% | |
| 49 | 16% | 60% | Median |
| 50 | 11% | 44% | |
| 51 | 13% | 33% | |
| 52 | 8% | 20% | Last Result |
| 53 | 5% | 12% | |
| 54 | 3% | 7% | |
| 55 | 2% | 4% | |
| 56 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Research Affairs
- Commissioner(s): ÖSTERREICH
- Fieldwork period: 21–27 June 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1004
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.73%