Opinion Poll by OGM for ServusTV, 26–28 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 31.5% 33.0% 30.9–35.2% 30.3–35.8% 29.8–36.3% 28.9–37.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 26.9% 28.0% 26.1–30.1% 25.5–30.7% 25.0–31.2% 24.1–32.3%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 26.0% 25.1% 23.2–27.1% 22.6–27.7% 22.2–28.2% 21.3–29.2%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 5.3% 6.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.7–7.5% 4.5–7.8% 4.1–8.4%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 3.8% 5.0% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.4% 3.7–6.7% 3.3–7.3%
JETZT–Liste Pilz 4.4% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 1.0–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 62 58–67 57–68 56–69 55–71
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 53 49–57 48–58 47–59 46–62
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 51 48 44–52 43–53 42–54 40–55
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 10 11 9–13 9–14 8–15 7–16
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 0 9 7–11 0–12 0–12 0–13
JETZT–Liste Pilz 8 0 0 0 0 0

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.9% 99.6%  
56 2% 98.7%  
57 3% 97%  
58 4% 94%  
59 6% 90%  
60 11% 84%  
61 13% 72%  
62 11% 60% Last Result, Median
63 10% 49%  
64 11% 39%  
65 9% 27%  
66 8% 18%  
67 4% 10%  
68 3% 6%  
69 2% 4%  
70 1.0% 2%  
71 0.5% 0.9%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.8%  
46 1.0% 99.5%  
47 2% 98.5%  
48 3% 97%  
49 6% 94%  
50 7% 88%  
51 9% 81%  
52 13% 72% Last Result
53 13% 59% Median
54 11% 45%  
55 12% 34%  
56 7% 21%  
57 6% 14%  
58 3% 8%  
59 3% 5%  
60 0.8% 2%  
61 0.4% 1.0%  
62 0.4% 0.6%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.8%  
41 1.5% 99.3%  
42 2% 98%  
43 3% 96%  
44 7% 92%  
45 11% 85%  
46 14% 74%  
47 10% 60%  
48 14% 51% Median
49 14% 37%  
50 6% 23%  
51 6% 16% Last Result
52 5% 11%  
53 3% 6%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.6% 1.1%  
56 0.2% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0% 99.7%  
5 0% 99.7%  
6 0% 99.7%  
7 0.3% 99.7%  
8 4% 99.3%  
9 11% 95%  
10 20% 84% Last Result
11 24% 65% Median
12 23% 40%  
13 10% 18%  
14 5% 8%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.5% 0.6%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 0% 92%  
2 0% 92%  
3 0% 92%  
4 0% 92%  
5 0% 92%  
6 0% 92%  
7 4% 92%  
8 19% 88%  
9 28% 69% Median
10 24% 41%  
11 10% 17%  
12 6% 7%  
13 1.1% 2%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

JETZT–Liste Pilz

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 114 116 100% 111–120 110–122 109–123 107–126
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 113 110 100% 105–115 105–116 103–117 102–121
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 103 101 99.5% 96–105 95–107 94–108 92–111
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 72 82 0.5% 78–87 76–88 75–89 72–91
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 73 0% 70–78 68–79 67–81 65–83
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 73 0% 68–77 67–78 66–80 62–81
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 71 0% 67–76 65–77 64–78 61–80
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 62 0% 58–67 57–68 56–69 55–71
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 53 0% 49–57 48–58 47–59 46–62

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0.1% 100%  
106 0.2% 99.9%  
107 0.3% 99.6%  
108 0.9% 99.3%  
109 2% 98%  
110 3% 96%  
111 4% 93%  
112 6% 89%  
113 14% 83%  
114 5% 70% Last Result
115 13% 64% Median
116 13% 51%  
117 11% 39%  
118 7% 27%  
119 6% 21%  
120 5% 15%  
121 3% 10%  
122 2% 7%  
123 2% 4%  
124 0.8% 2%  
125 0.6% 1.3%  
126 0.2% 0.7%  
127 0.2% 0.4%  
128 0.2% 0.3%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.2% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.7%  
102 1.3% 99.5%  
103 1.0% 98%  
104 2% 97%  
105 6% 96%  
106 4% 90%  
107 11% 86%  
108 6% 75%  
109 16% 68%  
110 13% 52% Median
111 6% 40%  
112 8% 34%  
113 9% 25% Last Result
114 5% 16%  
115 4% 11%  
116 3% 7%  
117 2% 4%  
118 0.9% 2%  
119 0.5% 1.3%  
120 0.2% 0.8%  
121 0.5% 0.7%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0.1% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.3% 99.9%  
92 0.3% 99.5% Majority
93 0.9% 99.2%  
94 2% 98%  
95 3% 96%  
96 4% 93%  
97 9% 89%  
98 8% 80%  
99 10% 73%  
100 13% 63%  
101 9% 50% Median
102 13% 42%  
103 8% 29% Last Result
104 7% 21%  
105 5% 14%  
106 3% 9%  
107 2% 6%  
108 2% 4%  
109 0.5% 2%  
110 0.8% 1.4%  
111 0.3% 0.6%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
73 0.8% 99.4%  
74 0.5% 98.6%  
75 2% 98%  
76 2% 96%  
77 3% 94%  
78 5% 91%  
79 7% 86%  
80 8% 79%  
81 13% 71%  
82 9% 58% Median
83 13% 50%  
84 10% 37%  
85 8% 27%  
86 9% 20%  
87 4% 11%  
88 3% 7%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.9% 2%  
91 0.3% 0.8%  
92 0.3% 0.5% Majority
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.5% 99.7%  
66 1.0% 99.2%  
67 2% 98%  
68 2% 96%  
69 4% 94%  
70 8% 90%  
71 9% 82%  
72 15% 74% Last Result
73 10% 59% Median
74 6% 48%  
75 13% 42%  
76 8% 30%  
77 11% 22%  
78 4% 11%  
79 3% 7%  
80 1.5% 4%  
81 1.1% 3%  
82 0.6% 1.5%  
83 0.5% 0.9%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.5% 99.8% Last Result
63 0.2% 99.3%  
64 0.5% 99.2%  
65 0.9% 98.7%  
66 2% 98%  
67 3% 96%  
68 4% 93%  
69 5% 89%  
70 9% 84%  
71 8% 75%  
72 6% 66%  
73 13% 60% Median
74 16% 48%  
75 6% 32%  
76 11% 25%  
77 4% 14%  
78 6% 10%  
79 2% 4%  
80 1.0% 3%  
81 1.3% 2%  
82 0.2% 0.5%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.2% 99.6%  
62 1.1% 99.4% Last Result
63 0.6% 98%  
64 2% 98%  
65 3% 95%  
66 2% 92%  
67 5% 90%  
68 6% 85%  
69 9% 80%  
70 10% 70%  
71 12% 60% Median
72 13% 48%  
73 8% 35%  
74 10% 27%  
75 6% 17%  
76 5% 11%  
77 3% 6%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.4% 1.4%  
80 0.7% 1.0%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.9% 99.6%  
56 2% 98.7%  
57 3% 97%  
58 4% 94%  
59 6% 90%  
60 11% 84%  
61 13% 72%  
62 11% 60% Last Result, Median
63 10% 49%  
64 11% 39%  
65 9% 27%  
66 8% 18%  
67 4% 10%  
68 3% 6%  
69 2% 4%  
70 1.0% 2%  
71 0.5% 0.9%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.8%  
46 1.0% 99.5%  
47 2% 98.5%  
48 3% 97%  
49 6% 94%  
50 7% 88%  
51 9% 81%  
52 13% 72% Last Result
53 13% 59% Median
54 11% 45%  
55 12% 34%  
56 7% 21%  
57 6% 14%  
58 3% 8%  
59 3% 5%  
60 0.8% 2%  
61 0.4% 1.0%  
62 0.4% 0.6%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations