Opinion Poll by OGM for ServusTV, 26–28 June 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 33.0% | 30.9–35.2% | 30.3–35.8% | 29.8–36.3% | 28.9–37.4% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 28.0% | 26.1–30.1% | 25.5–30.7% | 25.0–31.2% | 24.1–32.3% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 25.1% | 23.2–27.1% | 22.6–27.7% | 22.2–28.2% | 21.3–29.2% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.0–7.2% | 4.7–7.5% | 4.5–7.8% | 4.1–8.4% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.7–6.7% | 3.3–7.3% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.2% | 1.0–3.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 62 | 58–67 | 57–68 | 56–69 | 55–71 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 53 | 49–57 | 48–58 | 47–59 | 46–62 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 48 | 44–52 | 43–53 | 42–54 | 40–55 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 11 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 8–15 | 7–16 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 9 | 7–11 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 57 | 3% | 97% | |
| 58 | 4% | 94% | |
| 59 | 6% | 90% | |
| 60 | 11% | 84% | |
| 61 | 13% | 72% | |
| 62 | 11% | 60% | Last Result, Median |
| 63 | 10% | 49% | |
| 64 | 11% | 39% | |
| 65 | 9% | 27% | |
| 66 | 8% | 18% | |
| 67 | 4% | 10% | |
| 68 | 3% | 6% | |
| 69 | 2% | 4% | |
| 70 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 48 | 3% | 97% | |
| 49 | 6% | 94% | |
| 50 | 7% | 88% | |
| 51 | 9% | 81% | |
| 52 | 13% | 72% | Last Result |
| 53 | 13% | 59% | Median |
| 54 | 11% | 45% | |
| 55 | 12% | 34% | |
| 56 | 7% | 21% | |
| 57 | 6% | 14% | |
| 58 | 3% | 8% | |
| 59 | 3% | 5% | |
| 60 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 1.5% | 99.3% | |
| 42 | 2% | 98% | |
| 43 | 3% | 96% | |
| 44 | 7% | 92% | |
| 45 | 11% | 85% | |
| 46 | 14% | 74% | |
| 47 | 10% | 60% | |
| 48 | 14% | 51% | Median |
| 49 | 14% | 37% | |
| 50 | 6% | 23% | |
| 51 | 6% | 16% | Last Result |
| 52 | 5% | 11% | |
| 53 | 3% | 6% | |
| 54 | 2% | 3% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 9 | 11% | 95% | |
| 10 | 20% | 84% | Last Result |
| 11 | 24% | 65% | Median |
| 12 | 23% | 40% | |
| 13 | 10% | 18% | |
| 14 | 5% | 8% | |
| 15 | 2% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 92% | |
| 2 | 0% | 92% | |
| 3 | 0% | 92% | |
| 4 | 0% | 92% | |
| 5 | 0% | 92% | |
| 6 | 0% | 92% | |
| 7 | 4% | 92% | |
| 8 | 19% | 88% | |
| 9 | 28% | 69% | Median |
| 10 | 24% | 41% | |
| 11 | 10% | 17% | |
| 12 | 6% | 7% | |
| 13 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 116 | 100% | 111–120 | 110–122 | 109–123 | 107–126 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 110 | 100% | 105–115 | 105–116 | 103–117 | 102–121 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 101 | 99.5% | 96–105 | 95–107 | 94–108 | 92–111 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 72 | 82 | 0.5% | 78–87 | 76–88 | 75–89 | 72–91 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 73 | 0% | 70–78 | 68–79 | 67–81 | 65–83 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 73 | 0% | 68–77 | 67–78 | 66–80 | 62–81 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 71 | 0% | 67–76 | 65–77 | 64–78 | 61–80 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 62 | 0% | 58–67 | 57–68 | 56–69 | 55–71 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 53 | 0% | 49–57 | 48–58 | 47–59 | 46–62 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 108 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 109 | 2% | 98% | |
| 110 | 3% | 96% | |
| 111 | 4% | 93% | |
| 112 | 6% | 89% | |
| 113 | 14% | 83% | |
| 114 | 5% | 70% | Last Result |
| 115 | 13% | 64% | Median |
| 116 | 13% | 51% | |
| 117 | 11% | 39% | |
| 118 | 7% | 27% | |
| 119 | 6% | 21% | |
| 120 | 5% | 15% | |
| 121 | 3% | 10% | |
| 122 | 2% | 7% | |
| 123 | 2% | 4% | |
| 124 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 125 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 102 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 103 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 104 | 2% | 97% | |
| 105 | 6% | 96% | |
| 106 | 4% | 90% | |
| 107 | 11% | 86% | |
| 108 | 6% | 75% | |
| 109 | 16% | 68% | |
| 110 | 13% | 52% | Median |
| 111 | 6% | 40% | |
| 112 | 8% | 34% | |
| 113 | 9% | 25% | Last Result |
| 114 | 5% | 16% | |
| 115 | 4% | 11% | |
| 116 | 3% | 7% | |
| 117 | 2% | 4% | |
| 118 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 119 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 121 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 99.5% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 94 | 2% | 98% | |
| 95 | 3% | 96% | |
| 96 | 4% | 93% | |
| 97 | 9% | 89% | |
| 98 | 8% | 80% | |
| 99 | 10% | 73% | |
| 100 | 13% | 63% | |
| 101 | 9% | 50% | Median |
| 102 | 13% | 42% | |
| 103 | 8% | 29% | Last Result |
| 104 | 7% | 21% | |
| 105 | 5% | 14% | |
| 106 | 3% | 9% | |
| 107 | 2% | 6% | |
| 108 | 2% | 4% | |
| 109 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 75 | 2% | 98% | |
| 76 | 2% | 96% | |
| 77 | 3% | 94% | |
| 78 | 5% | 91% | |
| 79 | 7% | 86% | |
| 80 | 8% | 79% | |
| 81 | 13% | 71% | |
| 82 | 9% | 58% | Median |
| 83 | 13% | 50% | |
| 84 | 10% | 37% | |
| 85 | 8% | 27% | |
| 86 | 9% | 20% | |
| 87 | 4% | 11% | |
| 88 | 3% | 7% | |
| 89 | 2% | 3% | |
| 90 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 66 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98% | |
| 68 | 2% | 96% | |
| 69 | 4% | 94% | |
| 70 | 8% | 90% | |
| 71 | 9% | 82% | |
| 72 | 15% | 74% | Last Result |
| 73 | 10% | 59% | Median |
| 74 | 6% | 48% | |
| 75 | 13% | 42% | |
| 76 | 8% | 30% | |
| 77 | 11% | 22% | |
| 78 | 4% | 11% | |
| 79 | 3% | 7% | |
| 80 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 81 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 82 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 98.7% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98% | |
| 67 | 3% | 96% | |
| 68 | 4% | 93% | |
| 69 | 5% | 89% | |
| 70 | 9% | 84% | |
| 71 | 8% | 75% | |
| 72 | 6% | 66% | |
| 73 | 13% | 60% | Median |
| 74 | 16% | 48% | |
| 75 | 6% | 32% | |
| 76 | 11% | 25% | |
| 77 | 4% | 14% | |
| 78 | 6% | 10% | |
| 79 | 2% | 4% | |
| 80 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 81 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 62 | 1.1% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98% | |
| 65 | 3% | 95% | |
| 66 | 2% | 92% | |
| 67 | 5% | 90% | |
| 68 | 6% | 85% | |
| 69 | 9% | 80% | |
| 70 | 10% | 70% | |
| 71 | 12% | 60% | Median |
| 72 | 13% | 48% | |
| 73 | 8% | 35% | |
| 74 | 10% | 27% | |
| 75 | 6% | 17% | |
| 76 | 5% | 11% | |
| 77 | 3% | 6% | |
| 78 | 2% | 3% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 80 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 57 | 3% | 97% | |
| 58 | 4% | 94% | |
| 59 | 6% | 90% | |
| 60 | 11% | 84% | |
| 61 | 13% | 72% | |
| 62 | 11% | 60% | Last Result, Median |
| 63 | 10% | 49% | |
| 64 | 11% | 39% | |
| 65 | 9% | 27% | |
| 66 | 8% | 18% | |
| 67 | 4% | 10% | |
| 68 | 3% | 6% | |
| 69 | 2% | 4% | |
| 70 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 48 | 3% | 97% | |
| 49 | 6% | 94% | |
| 50 | 7% | 88% | |
| 51 | 9% | 81% | |
| 52 | 13% | 72% | Last Result |
| 53 | 13% | 59% | Median |
| 54 | 11% | 45% | |
| 55 | 12% | 34% | |
| 56 | 7% | 21% | |
| 57 | 6% | 14% | |
| 58 | 3% | 8% | |
| 59 | 3% | 5% | |
| 60 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: OGM
- Commissioner(s): ServusTV
- Fieldwork period: 26–28 June 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 806
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 2.18%