Opinion Poll by Spectra for OÖNachrichten, 6–29 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 31.5% 34.0% 31.8–36.3% 31.1–37.0% 30.6–37.6% 29.5–38.7%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 26.0% 28.1% 26.0–30.3% 25.4–30.9% 24.9–31.5% 23.9–32.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 26.9% 26.0% 23.9–28.2% 23.4–28.8% 22.9–29.3% 21.9–30.4%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 5.3% 3.9% 3.2–5.1% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.7% 2.4–6.2%
JETZT–Liste Pilz 4.4% 3.9% 3.2–5.1% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.7% 2.4–6.2%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 3.8% 3.0% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 2.0–4.5% 1.7–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 67 62–73 61–75 59–76 57–78
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 51 55 51–59 50–60 49–62 46–64
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 51 46–56 46–57 44–59 42–60
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 10 0 0–9 0–10 0–10 0–12
JETZT–Liste Pilz 8 7 0–9 0–10 0–10 0–12
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 0 0 0 0–7 0–8 0–9

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.6% 99.6%  
58 0.5% 99.0%  
59 1.3% 98.5%  
60 2% 97%  
61 4% 95%  
62 4% 91% Last Result
63 5% 87%  
64 9% 81%  
65 9% 72%  
66 11% 63%  
67 6% 52% Median
68 11% 46%  
69 9% 35%  
70 5% 26%  
71 4% 22%  
72 6% 18%  
73 3% 12%  
74 4% 9%  
75 2% 5%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.6% 1.3%  
78 0.4% 0.8%  
79 0.3% 0.4%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.7%  
47 0.6% 99.4%  
48 1.1% 98.8%  
49 2% 98%  
50 2% 96%  
51 5% 93% Last Result
52 7% 89%  
53 7% 82%  
54 8% 75%  
55 18% 67% Median
56 12% 49%  
57 12% 37%  
58 12% 25%  
59 3% 13%  
60 5% 10%  
61 2% 5%  
62 1.5% 3%  
63 0.7% 1.3%  
64 0.2% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 0.8% 99.4%  
44 1.3% 98.6%  
45 2% 97%  
46 6% 95%  
47 4% 89%  
48 7% 85%  
49 13% 79%  
50 11% 65%  
51 5% 55% Median
52 11% 49% Last Result
53 13% 38%  
54 7% 25%  
55 5% 18%  
56 7% 13%  
57 3% 6%  
58 0.4% 3%  
59 1.5% 3%  
60 1.1% 2%  
61 0.1% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100% Median
1 0% 50%  
2 0% 50%  
3 0% 50%  
4 0% 50%  
5 0% 50%  
6 0% 50%  
7 7% 50%  
8 27% 43%  
9 11% 16%  
10 3% 5% Last Result
11 1.1% 2%  
12 0.4% 0.6%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

JETZT–Liste Pilz

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 47% 100%  
1 0% 53%  
2 0% 53%  
3 0% 53%  
4 0% 53%  
5 0% 53%  
6 0% 53%  
7 5% 53% Median
8 26% 48% Last Result
9 14% 22%  
10 7% 9%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.5% 0.6%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0% 6%  
4 0% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 0% 6%  
7 2% 6%  
8 3% 4%  
9 0.8% 1.0%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 113 122 100% 116–130 114–131 113–133 109–135
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 114 119 100% 111–126 109–128 108–129 105–131
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 103 107 99.9% 102–111 98–113 97–114 94–117
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 72 72 0% 66–78 64–79 63–81 61–85
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 72 0% 66–77 64–78 62–80 61–82
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 68 0% 62–74 61–75 60–76 57–80
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 67 0% 62–73 61–75 59–76 57–78
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 56 0% 49–62 48–64 47–66 45–69
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 51 0% 46–56 46–57 44–59 42–60

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0.1% 100%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.2% 99.8%  
109 0.3% 99.6%  
110 0.2% 99.3%  
111 0.6% 99.1%  
112 0.5% 98.5%  
113 2% 98% Last Result
114 2% 96%  
115 2% 94%  
116 5% 92%  
117 4% 87%  
118 5% 83%  
119 5% 78%  
120 6% 73%  
121 9% 66%  
122 11% 58% Median
123 4% 46%  
124 5% 43%  
125 9% 38%  
126 7% 29%  
127 5% 22%  
128 5% 17%  
129 3% 13%  
130 2% 10%  
131 5% 8%  
132 0.7% 3%  
133 0.5% 3%  
134 1.0% 2%  
135 0.7% 1.0%  
136 0% 0.3%  
137 0.1% 0.3%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.8%  
105 0.3% 99.7%  
106 0.3% 99.4%  
107 1.1% 99.1%  
108 0.7% 98%  
109 2% 97%  
110 2% 95%  
111 4% 93%  
112 3% 89%  
113 6% 86%  
114 4% 80% Last Result
115 6% 76%  
116 5% 70%  
117 10% 65%  
118 3% 54% Median
119 13% 51%  
120 7% 38%  
121 4% 31%  
122 5% 26%  
123 4% 22%  
124 2% 18%  
125 2% 15%  
126 4% 13%  
127 3% 9%  
128 3% 7%  
129 1.3% 4%  
130 1.3% 2%  
131 0.7% 1.2%  
132 0.2% 0.5%  
133 0.2% 0.3%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9% Majority
93 0.3% 99.9%  
94 0.3% 99.6%  
95 0.7% 99.3%  
96 0.9% 98.6%  
97 2% 98%  
98 1.1% 96%  
99 1.4% 95%  
100 1.1% 94%  
101 2% 92%  
102 4% 90%  
103 7% 87% Last Result
104 6% 79%  
105 8% 73%  
106 8% 65% Median
107 14% 57%  
108 8% 43%  
109 14% 35%  
110 6% 21%  
111 6% 15%  
112 3% 9%  
113 2% 6%  
114 2% 4%  
115 0.3% 2%  
116 1.2% 2%  
117 0.1% 0.6%  
118 0.2% 0.4%  
119 0.1% 0.3%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.4% 99.7%  
62 1.4% 99.3%  
63 0.4% 98%  
64 3% 97%  
65 3% 94%  
66 6% 91%  
67 4% 85% Median
68 6% 81%  
69 8% 75%  
70 5% 67%  
71 7% 62%  
72 11% 55% Last Result
73 7% 44%  
74 9% 37%  
75 3% 28%  
76 11% 24%  
77 2% 14%  
78 5% 11%  
79 2% 7%  
80 2% 5%  
81 0.7% 3%  
82 0.5% 2%  
83 0.5% 2%  
84 0.3% 1.0%  
85 0.4% 0.7%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 0.5% 99.5%  
62 2% 99.0%  
63 0.6% 97%  
64 3% 97%  
65 3% 94%  
66 7% 90%  
67 5% 84% Median
68 6% 79%  
69 8% 73%  
70 5% 64%  
71 8% 59%  
72 12% 51% Last Result
73 6% 40%  
74 9% 33%  
75 3% 24%  
76 10% 21%  
77 3% 10%  
78 4% 8%  
79 0.8% 4%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.3% 1.1%  
82 0.4% 0.8%  
83 0.1% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.5% 99.7%  
58 0.3% 99.3%  
59 1.0% 98.9%  
60 2% 98%  
61 4% 96%  
62 4% 92% Last Result
63 5% 88%  
64 8% 83%  
65 9% 76%  
66 11% 67%  
67 6% 56% Median
68 11% 50%  
69 9% 40%  
70 5% 31%  
71 5% 26%  
72 6% 21%  
73 4% 15%  
74 4% 11%  
75 2% 7%  
76 2% 4%  
77 0.9% 2%  
78 0.5% 1.3%  
79 0.3% 0.8%  
80 0.1% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.4%  
82 0% 0.2%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.6% 99.6%  
58 0.5% 99.0%  
59 1.3% 98.5%  
60 2% 97%  
61 4% 95%  
62 4% 91% Last Result
63 5% 87%  
64 9% 81%  
65 9% 72%  
66 11% 63%  
67 6% 52% Median
68 11% 46%  
69 9% 35%  
70 5% 26%  
71 4% 22%  
72 6% 18%  
73 3% 12%  
74 4% 9%  
75 2% 5%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.6% 1.3%  
78 0.4% 0.8%  
79 0.3% 0.4%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.2% 99.8%  
45 0.7% 99.6%  
46 1.4% 98.9%  
47 1.3% 98%  
48 2% 96%  
49 5% 94%  
50 4% 89%  
51 2% 85% Median
52 9% 83%  
53 9% 74%  
54 5% 65%  
55 9% 60%  
56 7% 51%  
57 9% 45%  
58 7% 36%  
59 6% 29%  
60 2% 23%  
61 6% 21%  
62 6% 15% Last Result
63 2% 9%  
64 2% 7%  
65 2% 5%  
66 1.0% 3%  
67 0.6% 2%  
68 0.5% 1.0%  
69 0.3% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 0.8% 99.4%  
44 1.3% 98.6%  
45 2% 97%  
46 6% 95%  
47 4% 89%  
48 7% 85%  
49 13% 79%  
50 11% 65%  
51 5% 55% Median
52 11% 49% Last Result
53 13% 38%  
54 7% 25%  
55 5% 18%  
56 7% 13%  
57 3% 6%  
58 0.4% 3%  
59 1.5% 3%  
60 1.1% 2%  
61 0.1% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations