Opinion Poll by Unique Research for profil, 9–13 July 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 34.0% | 31.9–36.2% | 31.3–36.8% | 30.8–37.4% | 29.8–38.4% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 29.0% | 27.0–31.1% | 26.4–31.7% | 26.0–32.3% | 25.0–33.3% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 24.0% | 22.1–26.0% | 21.6–26.6% | 21.2–27.1% | 20.3–28.1% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.7–6.8% | 3.3–7.3% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.9–5.6% | 2.5–6.1% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.2–3.2% | 1.0–3.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 67 | 61–71 | 60–73 | 60–74 | 57–77 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 57 | 52–61 | 51–63 | 50–63 | 48–65 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 47 | 43–51 | 42–52 | 41–53 | 39–55 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 10 | 7–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 | 0–14 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 7 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–11 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 59 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 60 | 3% | 98% | |
| 61 | 7% | 95% | |
| 62 | 8% | 88% | Last Result |
| 63 | 6% | 81% | |
| 64 | 8% | 75% | |
| 65 | 9% | 67% | |
| 66 | 6% | 57% | |
| 67 | 14% | 51% | Median |
| 68 | 8% | 37% | |
| 69 | 8% | 30% | |
| 70 | 10% | 22% | |
| 71 | 3% | 11% | |
| 72 | 2% | 8% | |
| 73 | 2% | 6% | |
| 74 | 2% | 4% | |
| 75 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 49 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 50 | 3% | 98% | |
| 51 | 3% | 95% | |
| 52 | 4% | 92% | Last Result |
| 53 | 5% | 88% | |
| 54 | 8% | 82% | |
| 55 | 9% | 74% | |
| 56 | 14% | 66% | |
| 57 | 15% | 52% | Median |
| 58 | 10% | 36% | |
| 59 | 8% | 27% | |
| 60 | 8% | 19% | |
| 61 | 4% | 11% | |
| 62 | 2% | 7% | |
| 63 | 3% | 5% | |
| 64 | 2% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 40 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 41 | 2% | 98% | |
| 42 | 4% | 96% | |
| 43 | 8% | 91% | |
| 44 | 6% | 84% | |
| 45 | 14% | 77% | |
| 46 | 11% | 63% | |
| 47 | 11% | 52% | Median |
| 48 | 10% | 41% | |
| 49 | 14% | 31% | |
| 50 | 6% | 17% | |
| 51 | 4% | 11% | Last Result |
| 52 | 4% | 7% | |
| 53 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 54 | 2% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 92% | |
| 2 | 0% | 92% | |
| 3 | 0% | 92% | |
| 4 | 0% | 92% | |
| 5 | 0% | 92% | |
| 6 | 0% | 92% | |
| 7 | 2% | 92% | |
| 8 | 18% | 90% | |
| 9 | 21% | 72% | |
| 10 | 29% | 51% | Last Result, Median |
| 11 | 12% | 22% | |
| 12 | 7% | 10% | |
| 13 | 2% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 47% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 53% | |
| 2 | 0% | 53% | |
| 3 | 0% | 53% | |
| 4 | 0% | 53% | |
| 5 | 0% | 53% | |
| 6 | 0% | 53% | |
| 7 | 10% | 53% | Median |
| 8 | 20% | 43% | |
| 9 | 14% | 23% | |
| 10 | 6% | 9% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 123 | 100% | 117–129 | 115–130 | 114–131 | 112–137 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 113 | 100% | 107–119 | 106–121 | 105–123 | 102–125 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 104 | 99.9% | 98–109 | 96–110 | 95–112 | 93–115 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 72 | 79 | 0.1% | 74–85 | 73–87 | 71–88 | 68–90 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 75 | 0% | 70–80 | 68–82 | 67–83 | 64–85 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 70 | 0% | 65–77 | 63–78 | 62–79 | 61–81 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 70 | 0% | 64–76 | 62–77 | 60–78 | 58–80 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 67 | 0% | 61–71 | 60–73 | 60–74 | 57–77 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 57 | 0% | 52–61 | 51–63 | 50–63 | 48–65 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 113 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 114 | 1.3% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 115 | 3% | 97% | |
| 116 | 3% | 95% | |
| 117 | 4% | 91% | |
| 118 | 8% | 87% | |
| 119 | 6% | 79% | |
| 120 | 4% | 73% | |
| 121 | 10% | 69% | |
| 122 | 7% | 59% | |
| 123 | 4% | 52% | |
| 124 | 10% | 48% | Median |
| 125 | 6% | 38% | |
| 126 | 7% | 31% | |
| 127 | 8% | 24% | |
| 128 | 6% | 16% | |
| 129 | 4% | 10% | |
| 130 | 2% | 7% | |
| 131 | 3% | 4% | |
| 132 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 133 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 137 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 103 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 104 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 105 | 2% | 98% | |
| 106 | 3% | 95% | |
| 107 | 3% | 93% | |
| 108 | 6% | 90% | |
| 109 | 7% | 84% | |
| 110 | 8% | 77% | |
| 111 | 9% | 69% | |
| 112 | 6% | 60% | |
| 113 | 5% | 54% | Last Result |
| 114 | 10% | 49% | Median |
| 115 | 6% | 38% | |
| 116 | 11% | 32% | |
| 117 | 5% | 21% | |
| 118 | 6% | 16% | |
| 119 | 3% | 10% | |
| 120 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 121 | 2% | 5% | |
| 122 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 123 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 124 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 125 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 94 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 95 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 96 | 3% | 97% | |
| 97 | 3% | 94% | |
| 98 | 6% | 90% | |
| 99 | 3% | 84% | |
| 100 | 5% | 81% | |
| 101 | 9% | 76% | |
| 102 | 5% | 67% | |
| 103 | 10% | 62% | Last Result |
| 104 | 13% | 52% | Median |
| 105 | 11% | 39% | |
| 106 | 11% | 28% | |
| 107 | 3% | 17% | |
| 108 | 4% | 15% | |
| 109 | 3% | 11% | |
| 110 | 3% | 8% | |
| 111 | 2% | 5% | |
| 112 | 2% | 3% | |
| 113 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 115 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 70 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 71 | 2% | 98% | |
| 72 | 2% | 97% | Last Result |
| 73 | 3% | 95% | |
| 74 | 3% | 92% | |
| 75 | 4% | 89% | |
| 76 | 3% | 85% | |
| 77 | 11% | 83% | |
| 78 | 11% | 72% | |
| 79 | 13% | 61% | |
| 80 | 10% | 48% | |
| 81 | 5% | 38% | |
| 82 | 9% | 33% | |
| 83 | 5% | 24% | |
| 84 | 3% | 19% | Median |
| 85 | 6% | 16% | |
| 86 | 3% | 10% | |
| 87 | 3% | 6% | |
| 88 | 2% | 3% | |
| 89 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 66 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 67 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 68 | 2% | 97% | |
| 69 | 3% | 95% | |
| 70 | 4% | 92% | |
| 71 | 6% | 88% | |
| 72 | 9% | 82% | Last Result |
| 73 | 9% | 72% | |
| 74 | 6% | 64% | |
| 75 | 9% | 57% | |
| 76 | 5% | 49% | |
| 77 | 12% | 44% | Median |
| 78 | 10% | 32% | |
| 79 | 8% | 22% | |
| 80 | 6% | 14% | |
| 81 | 3% | 8% | |
| 82 | 2% | 6% | |
| 83 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 85 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 62 | 2% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 63 | 3% | 97% | |
| 64 | 2% | 94% | |
| 65 | 3% | 93% | |
| 66 | 2% | 89% | |
| 67 | 10% | 87% | |
| 68 | 5% | 77% | |
| 69 | 12% | 72% | |
| 70 | 15% | 60% | |
| 71 | 6% | 46% | |
| 72 | 8% | 39% | |
| 73 | 3% | 32% | |
| 74 | 7% | 29% | Median |
| 75 | 4% | 21% | |
| 76 | 7% | 17% | |
| 77 | 3% | 10% | |
| 78 | 3% | 7% | |
| 79 | 2% | 4% | |
| 80 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 59 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 61 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 62 | 2% | 96% | Last Result |
| 63 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 64 | 3% | 93% | |
| 65 | 6% | 90% | |
| 66 | 5% | 84% | |
| 67 | 11% | 79% | |
| 68 | 6% | 68% | |
| 69 | 10% | 61% | |
| 70 | 5% | 51% | |
| 71 | 6% | 46% | |
| 72 | 9% | 40% | |
| 73 | 8% | 31% | |
| 74 | 7% | 23% | Median |
| 75 | 6% | 16% | |
| 76 | 3% | 10% | |
| 77 | 3% | 7% | |
| 78 | 2% | 4% | |
| 79 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 59 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 60 | 3% | 98% | |
| 61 | 7% | 95% | |
| 62 | 8% | 88% | Last Result |
| 63 | 6% | 81% | |
| 64 | 8% | 75% | |
| 65 | 9% | 67% | |
| 66 | 6% | 57% | |
| 67 | 14% | 51% | Median |
| 68 | 8% | 37% | |
| 69 | 8% | 30% | |
| 70 | 10% | 22% | |
| 71 | 3% | 11% | |
| 72 | 2% | 8% | |
| 73 | 2% | 6% | |
| 74 | 2% | 4% | |
| 75 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 49 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 50 | 3% | 98% | |
| 51 | 3% | 95% | |
| 52 | 4% | 92% | Last Result |
| 53 | 5% | 88% | |
| 54 | 8% | 82% | |
| 55 | 9% | 74% | |
| 56 | 14% | 66% | |
| 57 | 15% | 52% | Median |
| 58 | 10% | 36% | |
| 59 | 8% | 27% | |
| 60 | 8% | 19% | |
| 61 | 4% | 11% | |
| 62 | 2% | 7% | |
| 63 | 3% | 5% | |
| 64 | 2% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Unique Research
- Commissioner(s): profil
- Fieldwork period: 9–13 July 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.87%