Opinion Poll by Research Affairs for ÖSTERREICH, 16–22 August 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 33.0% | 31.1–34.9% | 30.6–35.5% | 30.1–36.0% | 29.2–36.9% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 26.0% | 24.2–27.8% | 23.8–28.3% | 23.4–28.8% | 22.5–29.7% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 23.0% | 21.3–24.8% | 20.9–25.3% | 20.5–25.7% | 19.7–26.6% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.5–9.8% | 6.0–10.5% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 65 | 61–69 | 60–71 | 59–72 | 57–74 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 51 | 48–55 | 46–56 | 45–57 | 44–59 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 45 | 42–49 | 41–50 | 40–51 | 38–53 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 16 | 14–18 | 13–19 | 12–19 | 11–20 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–8 | 0–9 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–7 | 0–8 | 0–9 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 58 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 59 | 3% | 98% | |
| 60 | 5% | 95% | |
| 61 | 5% | 91% | |
| 62 | 6% | 86% | Last Result |
| 63 | 13% | 79% | |
| 64 | 10% | 67% | |
| 65 | 11% | 57% | Median |
| 66 | 12% | 45% | |
| 67 | 11% | 34% | |
| 68 | 7% | 23% | |
| 69 | 8% | 16% | |
| 70 | 3% | 8% | |
| 71 | 2% | 5% | |
| 72 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 73 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 45 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 46 | 3% | 97% | |
| 47 | 4% | 94% | |
| 48 | 8% | 90% | |
| 49 | 8% | 82% | |
| 50 | 14% | 73% | |
| 51 | 14% | 59% | Median |
| 52 | 14% | 45% | Last Result |
| 53 | 9% | 31% | |
| 54 | 6% | 22% | |
| 55 | 8% | 16% | |
| 56 | 4% | 8% | |
| 57 | 2% | 4% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 40 | 3% | 98% | |
| 41 | 4% | 95% | |
| 42 | 9% | 92% | |
| 43 | 9% | 83% | |
| 44 | 12% | 73% | |
| 45 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 46 | 17% | 49% | |
| 47 | 9% | 32% | |
| 48 | 10% | 22% | |
| 49 | 5% | 12% | |
| 50 | 3% | 7% | |
| 51 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 12 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 13 | 5% | 96% | |
| 14 | 24% | 92% | |
| 15 | 17% | 68% | |
| 16 | 19% | 50% | Median |
| 17 | 20% | 31% | |
| 18 | 5% | 11% | |
| 19 | 4% | 5% | |
| 20 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 8 | 4% | 4% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 6% | |
| 7 | 3% | 6% | |
| 8 | 3% | 4% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 116 | 100% | 111–122 | 110–123 | 108–125 | 105–126 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 110 | 100% | 105–116 | 104–117 | 102–119 | 100–121 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 96 | 90% | 91–101 | 90–103 | 89–105 | 86–106 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 72 | 81 | 0.4% | 76–86 | 75–88 | 74–88 | 72–91 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 81 | 0.2% | 76–86 | 75–87 | 73–88 | 71–90 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 67 | 0% | 63–72 | 62–73 | 61–75 | 59–77 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 65 | 0% | 61–70 | 60–72 | 59–73 | 57–76 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 65 | 0% | 61–69 | 60–71 | 59–72 | 57–74 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 51 | 0% | 48–55 | 46–56 | 45–57 | 44–59 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 106 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 107 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 108 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 109 | 2% | 97% | |
| 110 | 4% | 96% | |
| 111 | 4% | 92% | |
| 112 | 5% | 88% | |
| 113 | 8% | 83% | |
| 114 | 10% | 74% | Last Result |
| 115 | 9% | 65% | |
| 116 | 11% | 56% | Median |
| 117 | 7% | 45% | |
| 118 | 7% | 38% | |
| 119 | 6% | 31% | |
| 120 | 8% | 25% | |
| 121 | 4% | 17% | |
| 122 | 6% | 13% | |
| 123 | 4% | 7% | |
| 124 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 125 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 126 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 127 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 100 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 101 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 102 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 103 | 2% | 97% | |
| 104 | 3% | 95% | |
| 105 | 4% | 92% | |
| 106 | 4% | 88% | |
| 107 | 9% | 84% | |
| 108 | 7% | 75% | |
| 109 | 9% | 67% | |
| 110 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 111 | 8% | 47% | |
| 112 | 7% | 39% | |
| 113 | 11% | 32% | Last Result |
| 114 | 4% | 21% | |
| 115 | 6% | 18% | |
| 116 | 5% | 12% | |
| 117 | 3% | 7% | |
| 118 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 119 | 2% | 3% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 121 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 87 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 88 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 89 | 2% | 98% | |
| 90 | 4% | 97% | |
| 91 | 3% | 93% | |
| 92 | 3% | 90% | Majority |
| 93 | 8% | 87% | |
| 94 | 11% | 79% | |
| 95 | 12% | 67% | |
| 96 | 5% | 55% | Median |
| 97 | 7% | 50% | |
| 98 | 10% | 43% | |
| 99 | 10% | 33% | |
| 100 | 6% | 23% | |
| 101 | 9% | 17% | |
| 102 | 3% | 8% | |
| 103 | 2% | 6% | Last Result |
| 104 | 2% | 4% | |
| 105 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 106 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.5% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 73 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 74 | 2% | 98% | |
| 75 | 3% | 96% | |
| 76 | 3% | 93% | |
| 77 | 8% | 90% | |
| 78 | 8% | 81% | |
| 79 | 9% | 74% | |
| 80 | 6% | 65% | |
| 81 | 9% | 59% | Median |
| 82 | 17% | 49% | |
| 83 | 9% | 33% | |
| 84 | 6% | 24% | |
| 85 | 4% | 18% | |
| 86 | 5% | 13% | |
| 87 | 3% | 8% | |
| 88 | 3% | 5% | |
| 89 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 90 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 91 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 0.6% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 73 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 74 | 2% | 97% | |
| 75 | 4% | 95% | |
| 76 | 4% | 91% | |
| 77 | 9% | 87% | |
| 78 | 8% | 78% | |
| 79 | 9% | 70% | |
| 80 | 7% | 61% | |
| 81 | 9% | 54% | Median |
| 82 | 16% | 45% | |
| 83 | 9% | 29% | |
| 84 | 6% | 20% | |
| 85 | 4% | 14% | |
| 86 | 5% | 10% | |
| 87 | 2% | 6% | |
| 88 | 2% | 4% | |
| 89 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 60 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 4% | 96% | Last Result |
| 63 | 5% | 92% | |
| 64 | 10% | 87% | |
| 65 | 9% | 77% | |
| 66 | 11% | 68% | |
| 67 | 11% | 57% | Median |
| 68 | 11% | 46% | |
| 69 | 6% | 34% | |
| 70 | 11% | 28% | |
| 71 | 5% | 17% | |
| 72 | 5% | 12% | |
| 73 | 2% | 7% | |
| 74 | 2% | 4% | |
| 75 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 59 | 2% | 98% | |
| 60 | 3% | 96% | |
| 61 | 5% | 93% | |
| 62 | 6% | 88% | Last Result |
| 63 | 12% | 82% | |
| 64 | 10% | 70% | |
| 65 | 11% | 61% | Median |
| 66 | 11% | 49% | |
| 67 | 11% | 39% | |
| 68 | 7% | 27% | |
| 69 | 8% | 20% | |
| 70 | 4% | 12% | |
| 71 | 3% | 8% | |
| 72 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 73 | 3% | 4% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 58 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 59 | 3% | 98% | |
| 60 | 5% | 95% | |
| 61 | 5% | 91% | |
| 62 | 6% | 86% | Last Result |
| 63 | 13% | 79% | |
| 64 | 10% | 67% | |
| 65 | 11% | 57% | Median |
| 66 | 12% | 45% | |
| 67 | 11% | 34% | |
| 68 | 7% | 23% | |
| 69 | 8% | 16% | |
| 70 | 3% | 8% | |
| 71 | 2% | 5% | |
| 72 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 73 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 45 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 46 | 3% | 97% | |
| 47 | 4% | 94% | |
| 48 | 8% | 90% | |
| 49 | 8% | 82% | |
| 50 | 14% | 73% | |
| 51 | 14% | 59% | Median |
| 52 | 14% | 45% | Last Result |
| 53 | 9% | 31% | |
| 54 | 6% | 22% | |
| 55 | 8% | 16% | |
| 56 | 4% | 8% | |
| 57 | 2% | 4% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Research Affairs
- Commissioner(s): ÖSTERREICH
- Fieldwork period: 16–22 August 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1001
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.23%