Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 20–23 August 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 33.0% | 30.9–35.2% | 30.3–35.8% | 29.8–36.3% | 28.8–37.4% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 28.0% | 26.0–30.1% | 25.5–30.7% | 25.0–31.2% | 24.1–32.3% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 23.0% | 21.2–25.0% | 20.7–25.6% | 20.2–26.0% | 19.4–27.0% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.0–8.3% | 5.7–8.7% | 5.4–9.0% | 5.0–9.6% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.0–7.2% | 4.8–7.6% | 4.6–7.9% | 4.1–8.5% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.2–3.2% | 1.0–3.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 62 | 58–67 | 57–68 | 56–69 | 54–71 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 53 | 49–57 | 48–58 | 47–59 | 45–61 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 43 | 40–47 | 39–49 | 38–49 | 37–51 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 13 | 11–16 | 10–16 | 10–17 | 9–18 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 12 | 9–13 | 8–14 | 8–14 | 7–15 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 57 | 4% | 97% | |
| 58 | 7% | 93% | |
| 59 | 5% | 86% | |
| 60 | 12% | 81% | |
| 61 | 17% | 69% | |
| 62 | 9% | 52% | Last Result, Median |
| 63 | 12% | 43% | |
| 64 | 9% | 30% | |
| 65 | 8% | 21% | |
| 66 | 3% | 14% | |
| 67 | 4% | 10% | |
| 68 | 3% | 6% | |
| 69 | 2% | 4% | |
| 70 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 48 | 3% | 97% | |
| 49 | 6% | 94% | |
| 50 | 8% | 88% | |
| 51 | 10% | 80% | |
| 52 | 13% | 71% | Last Result |
| 53 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 54 | 12% | 45% | |
| 55 | 12% | 33% | |
| 56 | 9% | 22% | |
| 57 | 5% | 13% | |
| 58 | 3% | 8% | |
| 59 | 2% | 4% | |
| 60 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 38 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 39 | 5% | 95% | |
| 40 | 8% | 91% | |
| 41 | 18% | 83% | |
| 42 | 10% | 65% | |
| 43 | 18% | 55% | Median |
| 44 | 10% | 37% | |
| 45 | 6% | 27% | |
| 46 | 7% | 21% | |
| 47 | 6% | 15% | |
| 48 | 3% | 8% | |
| 49 | 4% | 6% | |
| 50 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 4% | 98.8% | Last Result |
| 11 | 10% | 94% | |
| 12 | 16% | 85% | |
| 13 | 23% | 69% | Median |
| 14 | 21% | 46% | |
| 15 | 13% | 25% | |
| 16 | 8% | 12% | |
| 17 | 3% | 4% | |
| 18 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 8 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 9 | 7% | 94% | |
| 10 | 12% | 87% | |
| 11 | 23% | 75% | |
| 12 | 28% | 52% | Median |
| 13 | 15% | 24% | |
| 14 | 7% | 9% | |
| 15 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 115 | 100% | 111–120 | 110–121 | 109–122 | 107–124 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 105 | 100% | 101–110 | 100–111 | 99–113 | 97–115 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 96 | 93% | 92–100 | 91–102 | 90–103 | 88–106 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 72 | 87 | 7% | 83–91 | 81–92 | 80–93 | 77–95 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 78 | 0% | 73–82 | 72–83 | 70–84 | 68–86 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 75 | 0% | 71–80 | 69–81 | 69–82 | 67–84 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 73 | 0% | 69–78 | 68–79 | 67–80 | 65–82 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 62 | 0% | 58–67 | 57–68 | 56–69 | 54–71 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 53 | 0% | 49–57 | 48–58 | 47–59 | 45–61 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 108 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 109 | 2% | 98% | |
| 110 | 4% | 96% | |
| 111 | 4% | 92% | |
| 112 | 5% | 87% | |
| 113 | 12% | 82% | |
| 114 | 8% | 69% | Last Result |
| 115 | 16% | 61% | Median |
| 116 | 12% | 45% | |
| 117 | 9% | 33% | |
| 118 | 8% | 23% | |
| 119 | 5% | 15% | |
| 120 | 4% | 10% | |
| 121 | 3% | 6% | |
| 122 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 123 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 124 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 98 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 99 | 2% | 98% | |
| 100 | 4% | 96% | |
| 101 | 6% | 92% | |
| 102 | 8% | 86% | |
| 103 | 14% | 78% | |
| 104 | 10% | 64% | |
| 105 | 9% | 54% | Median |
| 106 | 13% | 45% | |
| 107 | 9% | 32% | |
| 108 | 7% | 24% | |
| 109 | 5% | 16% | |
| 110 | 4% | 11% | |
| 111 | 3% | 8% | |
| 112 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 113 | 1.1% | 3% | Last Result |
| 114 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 88 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 89 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 90 | 2% | 98% | |
| 91 | 4% | 96% | |
| 92 | 8% | 93% | Majority |
| 93 | 9% | 85% | |
| 94 | 5% | 76% | |
| 95 | 10% | 71% | |
| 96 | 17% | 61% | Median |
| 97 | 9% | 44% | |
| 98 | 9% | 35% | |
| 99 | 10% | 26% | |
| 100 | 6% | 16% | |
| 101 | 3% | 10% | |
| 102 | 3% | 7% | |
| 103 | 1.5% | 3% | Last Result |
| 104 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 105 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 106 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 79 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 80 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 81 | 3% | 97% | |
| 82 | 3% | 93% | |
| 83 | 6% | 90% | |
| 84 | 10% | 84% | |
| 85 | 9% | 74% | |
| 86 | 9% | 65% | |
| 87 | 17% | 56% | Median |
| 88 | 10% | 39% | |
| 89 | 5% | 29% | |
| 90 | 9% | 24% | |
| 91 | 7% | 15% | |
| 92 | 4% | 7% | Majority |
| 93 | 2% | 4% | |
| 94 | 2% | 2% | |
| 95 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 69 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 70 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 71 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 72 | 3% | 96% | |
| 73 | 4% | 92% | |
| 74 | 5% | 89% | |
| 75 | 7% | 84% | |
| 76 | 9% | 76% | |
| 77 | 13% | 68% | |
| 78 | 9% | 55% | Median |
| 79 | 10% | 46% | |
| 80 | 14% | 36% | |
| 81 | 8% | 22% | |
| 82 | 6% | 14% | |
| 83 | 4% | 8% | |
| 84 | 2% | 4% | |
| 85 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 68 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 69 | 3% | 98% | |
| 70 | 3% | 95% | |
| 71 | 4% | 92% | |
| 72 | 5% | 88% | Last Result |
| 73 | 8% | 82% | |
| 74 | 11% | 74% | |
| 75 | 15% | 63% | Median |
| 76 | 12% | 48% | |
| 77 | 11% | 36% | |
| 78 | 9% | 25% | |
| 79 | 5% | 16% | |
| 80 | 4% | 11% | |
| 81 | 3% | 7% | |
| 82 | 2% | 4% | |
| 83 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 66 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 67 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 68 | 3% | 97% | |
| 69 | 5% | 94% | |
| 70 | 7% | 89% | |
| 71 | 10% | 82% | |
| 72 | 13% | 72% | |
| 73 | 12% | 60% | |
| 74 | 11% | 48% | Median |
| 75 | 9% | 36% | |
| 76 | 9% | 27% | |
| 77 | 6% | 18% | |
| 78 | 4% | 12% | |
| 79 | 3% | 7% | |
| 80 | 3% | 4% | |
| 81 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 57 | 4% | 97% | |
| 58 | 7% | 93% | |
| 59 | 5% | 86% | |
| 60 | 12% | 81% | |
| 61 | 17% | 69% | |
| 62 | 9% | 52% | Last Result, Median |
| 63 | 12% | 43% | |
| 64 | 9% | 30% | |
| 65 | 8% | 21% | |
| 66 | 3% | 14% | |
| 67 | 4% | 10% | |
| 68 | 3% | 6% | |
| 69 | 2% | 4% | |
| 70 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 48 | 3% | 97% | |
| 49 | 6% | 94% | |
| 50 | 8% | 88% | |
| 51 | 10% | 80% | |
| 52 | 13% | 71% | Last Result |
| 53 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 54 | 12% | 45% | |
| 55 | 12% | 33% | |
| 56 | 9% | 22% | |
| 57 | 5% | 13% | |
| 58 | 3% | 8% | |
| 59 | 2% | 4% | |
| 60 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): Der Standard
- Fieldwork period: 20–23 August 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.33%