Opinion Poll by Peter Hajek for ATV, 23–29 August 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 34.0% | 31.8–36.4% | 31.1–37.0% | 30.6–37.6% | 29.5–38.7% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 28.0% | 25.9–30.3% | 25.3–30.9% | 24.8–31.4% | 23.8–32.5% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 23.0% | 21.0–25.1% | 20.5–25.7% | 20.0–26.3% | 19.1–27.3% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.9–8.4% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.3–9.1% | 4.8–9.9% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.8–5.7% | 2.4–6.3% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% | 2.0–4.6% | 1.7–5.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 65 | 61–71 | 60–72 | 58–73 | 57–76 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 54 | 49–59 | 48–60 | 47–62 | 45–64 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 45 | 40–49 | 39–50 | 38–51 | 36–53 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 13 | 11–16 | 10–17 | 10–17 | 9–19 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 7 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–12 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0–7 | 0–8 | 0–8 | 0–9 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 59 | 2% | 97% | |
| 60 | 3% | 95% | |
| 61 | 4% | 92% | |
| 62 | 5% | 88% | Last Result |
| 63 | 9% | 83% | |
| 64 | 10% | 74% | |
| 65 | 16% | 65% | Median |
| 66 | 12% | 48% | |
| 67 | 9% | 37% | |
| 68 | 4% | 28% | |
| 69 | 5% | 24% | |
| 70 | 8% | 19% | |
| 71 | 2% | 11% | |
| 72 | 4% | 9% | |
| 73 | 3% | 4% | |
| 74 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 47 | 1.5% | 98.7% | |
| 48 | 4% | 97% | |
| 49 | 5% | 93% | |
| 50 | 6% | 88% | |
| 51 | 8% | 82% | |
| 52 | 10% | 74% | Last Result |
| 53 | 12% | 64% | |
| 54 | 10% | 52% | Median |
| 55 | 9% | 42% | |
| 56 | 8% | 33% | |
| 57 | 7% | 25% | |
| 58 | 6% | 17% | |
| 59 | 4% | 12% | |
| 60 | 4% | 8% | |
| 61 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 62 | 2% | 3% | |
| 63 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 38 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 39 | 4% | 97% | |
| 40 | 6% | 93% | |
| 41 | 5% | 87% | |
| 42 | 10% | 82% | |
| 43 | 10% | 72% | |
| 44 | 12% | 62% | |
| 45 | 17% | 50% | Median |
| 46 | 10% | 33% | |
| 47 | 8% | 23% | |
| 48 | 5% | 15% | |
| 49 | 5% | 11% | |
| 50 | 3% | 6% | |
| 51 | 1.4% | 3% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 5% | 98.7% | Last Result |
| 11 | 12% | 94% | |
| 12 | 18% | 81% | |
| 13 | 21% | 64% | Median |
| 14 | 17% | 43% | |
| 15 | 12% | 26% | |
| 16 | 8% | 14% | |
| 17 | 4% | 6% | |
| 18 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 44% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 56% | |
| 2 | 0% | 56% | |
| 3 | 0% | 56% | |
| 4 | 0% | 56% | |
| 5 | 0% | 56% | |
| 6 | 0% | 56% | |
| 7 | 10% | 56% | Median |
| 8 | 24% | 47% | |
| 9 | 14% | 23% | |
| 10 | 7% | 9% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 88% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 12% | |
| 2 | 0% | 12% | |
| 3 | 0% | 12% | |
| 4 | 0% | 12% | |
| 5 | 0% | 12% | |
| 6 | 0% | 12% | |
| 7 | 6% | 12% | |
| 8 | 5% | 6% | Last Result |
| 9 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 120 | 100% | 114–126 | 112–127 | 111–129 | 108–131 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 110 | 100% | 104–117 | 103–118 | 101–119 | 99–121 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 98 | 95% | 92–104 | 91–106 | 90–107 | 88–110 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 72 | 84 | 3% | 78–89 | 77–91 | 75–92 | 73–95 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 79 | 0.1% | 74–85 | 73–86 | 72–87 | 69–89 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 72 | 0% | 66–78 | 65–79 | 63–81 | 61–83 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 71 | 0% | 64–76 | 63–78 | 62–79 | 59–81 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 65 | 0% | 61–71 | 60–72 | 58–73 | 57–76 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 54 | 0% | 49–59 | 48–60 | 47–62 | 45–64 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 109 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 110 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 111 | 2% | 98% | |
| 112 | 2% | 96% | |
| 113 | 3% | 94% | |
| 114 | 3% | 91% | Last Result |
| 115 | 7% | 88% | |
| 116 | 8% | 80% | |
| 117 | 5% | 73% | |
| 118 | 10% | 67% | |
| 119 | 7% | 57% | Median |
| 120 | 9% | 51% | |
| 121 | 5% | 42% | |
| 122 | 7% | 37% | |
| 123 | 7% | 30% | |
| 124 | 7% | 23% | |
| 125 | 6% | 17% | |
| 126 | 5% | 11% | |
| 127 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 128 | 2% | 5% | |
| 129 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 130 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 131 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 99 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 100 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 101 | 1.5% | 98.5% | |
| 102 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 103 | 3% | 96% | |
| 104 | 4% | 93% | |
| 105 | 6% | 90% | |
| 106 | 3% | 83% | |
| 107 | 8% | 80% | |
| 108 | 9% | 72% | |
| 109 | 7% | 63% | |
| 110 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 111 | 8% | 44% | |
| 112 | 7% | 36% | |
| 113 | 7% | 29% | Last Result |
| 114 | 5% | 22% | |
| 115 | 3% | 16% | |
| 116 | 3% | 13% | |
| 117 | 5% | 10% | |
| 118 | 2% | 6% | |
| 119 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 120 | 2% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 88 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 89 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 90 | 2% | 98% | |
| 91 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 92 | 5% | 95% | Majority |
| 93 | 3% | 89% | |
| 94 | 6% | 86% | |
| 95 | 6% | 80% | |
| 96 | 8% | 75% | |
| 97 | 10% | 66% | |
| 98 | 9% | 56% | |
| 99 | 9% | 47% | Median |
| 100 | 10% | 38% | |
| 101 | 5% | 29% | |
| 102 | 8% | 24% | |
| 103 | 3% | 16% | Last Result |
| 104 | 5% | 13% | |
| 105 | 2% | 9% | |
| 106 | 3% | 7% | |
| 107 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 108 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 109 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 110 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 75 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 76 | 2% | 97% | |
| 77 | 5% | 95% | |
| 78 | 3% | 90% | |
| 79 | 5% | 87% | |
| 80 | 5% | 82% | |
| 81 | 9% | 78% | |
| 82 | 5% | 69% | |
| 83 | 10% | 64% | |
| 84 | 8% | 54% | |
| 85 | 10% | 45% | Median |
| 86 | 9% | 36% | |
| 87 | 7% | 26% | |
| 88 | 5% | 20% | |
| 89 | 5% | 15% | |
| 90 | 3% | 10% | |
| 91 | 4% | 7% | |
| 92 | 1.0% | 3% | Majority |
| 93 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 94 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 95 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 70 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 71 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
| 72 | 1.3% | 98% | Last Result |
| 73 | 5% | 96% | |
| 74 | 4% | 92% | |
| 75 | 6% | 87% | |
| 76 | 9% | 81% | |
| 77 | 12% | 72% | |
| 78 | 9% | 61% | Median |
| 79 | 8% | 51% | |
| 80 | 6% | 43% | |
| 81 | 10% | 37% | |
| 82 | 6% | 27% | |
| 83 | 6% | 21% | |
| 84 | 5% | 15% | |
| 85 | 3% | 10% | |
| 86 | 4% | 7% | |
| 87 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 88 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 89 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 63 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 64 | 2% | 97% | |
| 65 | 3% | 96% | |
| 66 | 6% | 93% | |
| 67 | 5% | 87% | |
| 68 | 4% | 83% | |
| 69 | 7% | 79% | |
| 70 | 8% | 72% | |
| 71 | 9% | 65% | |
| 72 | 8% | 55% | |
| 73 | 13% | 47% | |
| 74 | 5% | 35% | Median |
| 75 | 9% | 30% | |
| 76 | 7% | 20% | |
| 77 | 3% | 14% | |
| 78 | 4% | 11% | |
| 79 | 2% | 7% | |
| 80 | 2% | 5% | |
| 81 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 82 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 61 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 62 | 0.7% | 98% | Last Result |
| 63 | 4% | 97% | |
| 64 | 4% | 93% | |
| 65 | 5% | 90% | |
| 66 | 7% | 84% | |
| 67 | 5% | 77% | |
| 68 | 3% | 72% | |
| 69 | 7% | 69% | |
| 70 | 9% | 62% | |
| 71 | 6% | 53% | |
| 72 | 10% | 47% | Median |
| 73 | 13% | 36% | |
| 74 | 4% | 23% | |
| 75 | 6% | 19% | |
| 76 | 5% | 13% | |
| 77 | 2% | 8% | |
| 78 | 3% | 6% | |
| 79 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 80 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 59 | 2% | 97% | |
| 60 | 3% | 95% | |
| 61 | 4% | 92% | |
| 62 | 5% | 88% | Last Result |
| 63 | 9% | 83% | |
| 64 | 10% | 74% | |
| 65 | 16% | 65% | Median |
| 66 | 12% | 48% | |
| 67 | 9% | 37% | |
| 68 | 4% | 28% | |
| 69 | 5% | 24% | |
| 70 | 8% | 19% | |
| 71 | 2% | 11% | |
| 72 | 4% | 9% | |
| 73 | 3% | 4% | |
| 74 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 47 | 1.5% | 98.7% | |
| 48 | 4% | 97% | |
| 49 | 5% | 93% | |
| 50 | 6% | 88% | |
| 51 | 8% | 82% | |
| 52 | 10% | 74% | Last Result |
| 53 | 12% | 64% | |
| 54 | 10% | 52% | Median |
| 55 | 9% | 42% | |
| 56 | 8% | 33% | |
| 57 | 7% | 25% | |
| 58 | 6% | 17% | |
| 59 | 4% | 12% | |
| 60 | 4% | 8% | |
| 61 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 62 | 2% | 3% | |
| 63 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Peter Hajek
- Commissioner(s): ATV
- Fieldwork period: 23–29 August 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 700
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.49%