Opinion Poll by Research Affairs for ÖSTERREICH, 30 August–5 September 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 33.0% | 31.2–35.0% | 30.6–35.5% | 30.2–36.0% | 29.3–37.0% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 27.0% | 25.3–28.9% | 24.8–29.4% | 24.4–29.9% | 23.6–30.8% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 23.0% | 21.3–24.7% | 20.9–25.2% | 20.5–25.7% | 19.7–26.5% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.1% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.7% | 5.1–9.3% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.8–4.7% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.8–4.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 65 | 61–69 | 60–71 | 59–72 | 57–74 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 54 | 50–57 | 49–58 | 48–60 | 46–62 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 45 | 42–49 | 41–50 | 40–51 | 38–53 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 14 | 11–16 | 11–16 | 10–17 | 10–18 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0–7 | 0–8 | 0–9 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–7 | 0–8 | 0–9 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 58 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 59 | 2% | 98% | |
| 60 | 4% | 96% | |
| 61 | 5% | 92% | |
| 62 | 6% | 87% | Last Result |
| 63 | 9% | 80% | |
| 64 | 10% | 72% | |
| 65 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 66 | 11% | 49% | |
| 67 | 10% | 38% | |
| 68 | 11% | 28% | |
| 69 | 8% | 17% | |
| 70 | 3% | 9% | |
| 71 | 3% | 6% | |
| 72 | 2% | 3% | |
| 73 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 47 | 1.4% | 99.1% | |
| 48 | 3% | 98% | |
| 49 | 5% | 95% | |
| 50 | 7% | 90% | |
| 51 | 11% | 83% | |
| 52 | 9% | 72% | Last Result |
| 53 | 11% | 63% | |
| 54 | 16% | 52% | Median |
| 55 | 11% | 36% | |
| 56 | 8% | 25% | |
| 57 | 8% | 17% | |
| 58 | 4% | 9% | |
| 59 | 2% | 5% | |
| 60 | 2% | 3% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 40 | 3% | 98% | |
| 41 | 4% | 95% | |
| 42 | 6% | 91% | |
| 43 | 13% | 85% | |
| 44 | 11% | 72% | |
| 45 | 13% | 61% | Median |
| 46 | 12% | 48% | |
| 47 | 11% | 36% | |
| 48 | 10% | 25% | |
| 49 | 8% | 15% | |
| 50 | 4% | 7% | |
| 51 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 11 | 8% | 97% | |
| 12 | 15% | 90% | |
| 13 | 22% | 74% | |
| 14 | 24% | 53% | Median |
| 15 | 15% | 29% | |
| 16 | 10% | 14% | |
| 17 | 3% | 4% | |
| 18 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 8 | 4% | 5% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 5% | |
| 7 | 2% | 5% | |
| 8 | 3% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 119 | 100% | 113–124 | 112–125 | 111–127 | 107–129 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 111 | 100% | 105–116 | 104–117 | 103–119 | 100–120 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 99 | 97% | 94–104 | 92–105 | 91–106 | 88–108 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 72 | 79 | 0.1% | 74–84 | 73–86 | 73–87 | 70–89 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 79 | 0% | 74–83 | 73–85 | 72–86 | 70–88 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 68 | 0% | 63–72 | 62–73 | 61–75 | 59–77 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 66 | 0% | 61–70 | 60–72 | 59–73 | 57–76 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 65 | 0% | 61–69 | 60–71 | 59–72 | 57–74 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 54 | 0% | 50–57 | 49–58 | 48–60 | 46–62 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 108 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 109 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 110 | 0.9% | 98.5% | |
| 111 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 112 | 3% | 96% | |
| 113 | 4% | 94% | |
| 114 | 7% | 90% | Last Result |
| 115 | 6% | 83% | |
| 116 | 9% | 77% | |
| 117 | 5% | 68% | |
| 118 | 5% | 63% | |
| 119 | 9% | 57% | Median |
| 120 | 8% | 48% | |
| 121 | 12% | 40% | |
| 122 | 10% | 28% | |
| 123 | 6% | 18% | |
| 124 | 4% | 12% | |
| 125 | 3% | 8% | |
| 126 | 2% | 5% | |
| 127 | 2% | 3% | |
| 128 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 129 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 100 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 101 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 102 | 1.0% | 98.8% | |
| 103 | 2% | 98% | |
| 104 | 3% | 96% | |
| 105 | 3% | 93% | |
| 106 | 6% | 89% | |
| 107 | 6% | 84% | |
| 108 | 7% | 77% | |
| 109 | 12% | 70% | |
| 110 | 7% | 59% | Median |
| 111 | 8% | 51% | |
| 112 | 7% | 44% | |
| 113 | 8% | 37% | Last Result |
| 114 | 7% | 28% | |
| 115 | 8% | 21% | |
| 116 | 4% | 13% | |
| 117 | 4% | 9% | |
| 118 | 2% | 5% | |
| 119 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 120 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 89 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 90 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 91 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 92 | 3% | 97% | Majority |
| 93 | 2% | 94% | |
| 94 | 5% | 91% | |
| 95 | 7% | 86% | |
| 96 | 10% | 79% | |
| 97 | 8% | 69% | |
| 98 | 8% | 61% | |
| 99 | 7% | 54% | Median |
| 100 | 8% | 46% | |
| 101 | 12% | 38% | |
| 102 | 9% | 26% | |
| 103 | 4% | 17% | Last Result |
| 104 | 5% | 13% | |
| 105 | 4% | 8% | |
| 106 | 2% | 4% | |
| 107 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 108 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 110 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 72 | 1.1% | 98.8% | Last Result |
| 73 | 4% | 98% | |
| 74 | 4% | 94% | |
| 75 | 5% | 90% | |
| 76 | 6% | 84% | |
| 77 | 9% | 78% | |
| 78 | 9% | 69% | |
| 79 | 13% | 61% | Median |
| 80 | 6% | 47% | |
| 81 | 12% | 41% | |
| 82 | 10% | 29% | |
| 83 | 7% | 19% | |
| 84 | 4% | 12% | |
| 85 | 3% | 8% | |
| 86 | 2% | 6% | |
| 87 | 2% | 3% | |
| 88 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 89 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 70 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 71 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 72 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 73 | 4% | 97% | |
| 74 | 5% | 93% | |
| 75 | 6% | 88% | |
| 76 | 7% | 82% | |
| 77 | 9% | 75% | |
| 78 | 9% | 67% | |
| 79 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 80 | 6% | 44% | |
| 81 | 12% | 38% | |
| 82 | 9% | 25% | |
| 83 | 7% | 16% | |
| 84 | 3% | 10% | |
| 85 | 2% | 6% | |
| 86 | 2% | 4% | |
| 87 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 60 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 4% | 96% | Last Result |
| 63 | 5% | 92% | |
| 64 | 6% | 87% | |
| 65 | 9% | 81% | |
| 66 | 12% | 72% | |
| 67 | 10% | 60% | |
| 68 | 12% | 50% | Median |
| 69 | 12% | 38% | |
| 70 | 8% | 27% | |
| 71 | 5% | 18% | |
| 72 | 5% | 13% | |
| 73 | 3% | 8% | |
| 74 | 2% | 5% | |
| 75 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 76 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 59 | 1.5% | 98.7% | |
| 60 | 4% | 97% | |
| 61 | 5% | 93% | |
| 62 | 6% | 88% | Last Result |
| 63 | 8% | 82% | |
| 64 | 10% | 74% | |
| 65 | 12% | 64% | Median |
| 66 | 11% | 52% | |
| 67 | 10% | 42% | |
| 68 | 11% | 31% | |
| 69 | 8% | 21% | |
| 70 | 4% | 13% | |
| 71 | 3% | 9% | |
| 72 | 2% | 6% | |
| 73 | 2% | 4% | |
| 74 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 58 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 59 | 2% | 98% | |
| 60 | 4% | 96% | |
| 61 | 5% | 92% | |
| 62 | 6% | 87% | Last Result |
| 63 | 9% | 80% | |
| 64 | 10% | 72% | |
| 65 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 66 | 11% | 49% | |
| 67 | 10% | 38% | |
| 68 | 11% | 28% | |
| 69 | 8% | 17% | |
| 70 | 3% | 9% | |
| 71 | 3% | 6% | |
| 72 | 2% | 3% | |
| 73 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 47 | 1.4% | 99.1% | |
| 48 | 3% | 98% | |
| 49 | 5% | 95% | |
| 50 | 7% | 90% | |
| 51 | 11% | 83% | |
| 52 | 9% | 72% | Last Result |
| 53 | 11% | 63% | |
| 54 | 16% | 52% | Median |
| 55 | 11% | 36% | |
| 56 | 8% | 25% | |
| 57 | 8% | 17% | |
| 58 | 4% | 9% | |
| 59 | 2% | 5% | |
| 60 | 2% | 3% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Research Affairs
- Commissioner(s): ÖSTERREICH
- Fieldwork period: 30 August–5 September 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1002
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.08%