Opinion Poll by Unique Research for Heute, 3–6 September 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 33.0% | 30.9–35.2% | 30.3–35.8% | 29.8–36.3% | 28.8–37.4% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 29.0% | 27.0–31.1% | 26.4–31.7% | 26.0–32.3% | 25.0–33.3% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 23.0% | 21.2–25.0% | 20.7–25.6% | 20.2–26.0% | 19.4–27.0% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.0–8.3% | 5.7–8.7% | 5.4–9.0% | 5.0–9.6% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.7–6.8% | 3.3–7.3% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.2–3.2% | 1.0–3.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 63 | 59–67 | 57–68 | 56–69 | 54–71 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 55 | 51–59 | 50–60 | 49–61 | 47–64 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 43 | 40–47 | 39–48 | 38–49 | 37–51 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 13 | 11–15 | 10–16 | 10–17 | 9–18 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 9 | 7–11 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 56 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 57 | 3% | 97% | |
| 58 | 4% | 94% | |
| 59 | 6% | 91% | |
| 60 | 11% | 84% | |
| 61 | 8% | 73% | |
| 62 | 12% | 65% | Last Result |
| 63 | 18% | 53% | Median |
| 64 | 7% | 35% | |
| 65 | 9% | 28% | |
| 66 | 8% | 20% | |
| 67 | 5% | 12% | |
| 68 | 2% | 6% | |
| 69 | 2% | 4% | |
| 70 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 49 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 50 | 4% | 97% | |
| 51 | 4% | 92% | |
| 52 | 13% | 88% | Last Result |
| 53 | 10% | 76% | |
| 54 | 9% | 66% | |
| 55 | 16% | 57% | Median |
| 56 | 10% | 41% | |
| 57 | 8% | 31% | |
| 58 | 11% | 23% | |
| 59 | 4% | 12% | |
| 60 | 4% | 8% | |
| 61 | 2% | 4% | |
| 62 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 38 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 39 | 5% | 97% | |
| 40 | 5% | 92% | |
| 41 | 9% | 88% | |
| 42 | 15% | 79% | |
| 43 | 14% | 64% | Median |
| 44 | 16% | 50% | |
| 45 | 10% | 34% | |
| 46 | 11% | 24% | |
| 47 | 5% | 13% | |
| 48 | 3% | 8% | |
| 49 | 2% | 4% | |
| 50 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 5% | 98.9% | Last Result |
| 11 | 11% | 94% | |
| 12 | 23% | 83% | |
| 13 | 24% | 60% | Median |
| 14 | 18% | 36% | |
| 15 | 11% | 18% | |
| 16 | 5% | 8% | |
| 17 | 2% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 94% | |
| 2 | 0% | 94% | |
| 3 | 0% | 94% | |
| 4 | 0% | 94% | |
| 5 | 0% | 94% | |
| 6 | 0% | 94% | |
| 7 | 4% | 94% | |
| 8 | 20% | 90% | |
| 9 | 31% | 70% | Median |
| 10 | 21% | 38% | |
| 11 | 11% | 17% | |
| 12 | 5% | 6% | |
| 13 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 118 | 100% | 113–122 | 112–124 | 111–125 | 109–129 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 106 | 100% | 102–111 | 101–112 | 100–113 | 98–117 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 98 | 98% | 94–103 | 93–105 | 92–106 | 90–109 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 72 | 85 | 2% | 80–89 | 78–90 | 77–91 | 74–93 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 77 | 0% | 72–81 | 71–82 | 70–83 | 66–85 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 76 | 0% | 71–80 | 70–81 | 69–83 | 68–85 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 72 | 0% | 67–76 | 65–77 | 64–78 | 61–80 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 63 | 0% | 59–67 | 57–68 | 56–69 | 54–71 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 55 | 0% | 51–59 | 50–60 | 49–61 | 47–64 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 107 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 110 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 111 | 2% | 98% | |
| 112 | 5% | 96% | |
| 113 | 5% | 91% | |
| 114 | 3% | 87% | Last Result |
| 115 | 5% | 83% | |
| 116 | 10% | 78% | |
| 117 | 11% | 68% | |
| 118 | 23% | 57% | Median |
| 119 | 14% | 34% | |
| 120 | 6% | 21% | |
| 121 | 4% | 15% | |
| 122 | 2% | 11% | |
| 123 | 3% | 9% | |
| 124 | 3% | 7% | |
| 125 | 2% | 3% | |
| 126 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 99 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 100 | 2% | 98% | |
| 101 | 5% | 96% | |
| 102 | 6% | 91% | |
| 103 | 8% | 85% | |
| 104 | 7% | 78% | |
| 105 | 14% | 71% | |
| 106 | 14% | 57% | Median |
| 107 | 7% | 44% | |
| 108 | 12% | 36% | |
| 109 | 8% | 24% | |
| 110 | 5% | 16% | |
| 111 | 5% | 11% | |
| 112 | 2% | 5% | |
| 113 | 0.8% | 3% | Last Result |
| 114 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 117 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 90 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 91 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 92 | 3% | 98% | Majority |
| 93 | 3% | 95% | |
| 94 | 3% | 92% | |
| 95 | 9% | 89% | |
| 96 | 10% | 80% | |
| 97 | 8% | 71% | |
| 98 | 14% | 62% | Median |
| 99 | 9% | 48% | |
| 100 | 14% | 39% | |
| 101 | 9% | 26% | |
| 102 | 5% | 17% | |
| 103 | 4% | 13% | Last Result |
| 104 | 3% | 9% | |
| 105 | 2% | 6% | |
| 106 | 2% | 3% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 108 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 109 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 77 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 78 | 2% | 97% | |
| 79 | 3% | 94% | |
| 80 | 4% | 91% | |
| 81 | 5% | 87% | |
| 82 | 9% | 83% | |
| 83 | 14% | 74% | |
| 84 | 9% | 61% | |
| 85 | 14% | 52% | Median |
| 86 | 8% | 38% | |
| 87 | 10% | 29% | |
| 88 | 9% | 19% | |
| 89 | 3% | 11% | |
| 90 | 3% | 8% | |
| 91 | 3% | 5% | |
| 92 | 1.1% | 2% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 68 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 69 | 0.8% | 98.6% | |
| 70 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 71 | 2% | 97% | |
| 72 | 5% | 95% | |
| 73 | 5% | 89% | |
| 74 | 8% | 84% | |
| 75 | 12% | 76% | |
| 76 | 7% | 64% | |
| 77 | 14% | 56% | Median |
| 78 | 14% | 43% | |
| 79 | 7% | 29% | |
| 80 | 8% | 22% | |
| 81 | 6% | 15% | |
| 82 | 5% | 9% | |
| 83 | 2% | 4% | |
| 84 | 2% | 2% | |
| 85 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 68 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 69 | 2% | 98% | |
| 70 | 4% | 96% | |
| 71 | 4% | 92% | |
| 72 | 4% | 89% | Last Result |
| 73 | 8% | 85% | |
| 74 | 14% | 77% | |
| 75 | 12% | 63% | |
| 76 | 15% | 51% | Median |
| 77 | 11% | 36% | |
| 78 | 5% | 25% | |
| 79 | 6% | 21% | |
| 80 | 6% | 14% | |
| 81 | 4% | 8% | |
| 82 | 2% | 5% | |
| 83 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 85 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.7% | 98.6% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98% | |
| 65 | 2% | 96% | |
| 66 | 2% | 94% | |
| 67 | 4% | 92% | |
| 68 | 7% | 88% | |
| 69 | 9% | 81% | |
| 70 | 10% | 72% | |
| 71 | 8% | 62% | |
| 72 | 15% | 53% | Median |
| 73 | 8% | 38% | |
| 74 | 9% | 30% | |
| 75 | 9% | 21% | |
| 76 | 6% | 12% | |
| 77 | 3% | 6% | |
| 78 | 2% | 4% | |
| 79 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 56 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 57 | 3% | 97% | |
| 58 | 4% | 94% | |
| 59 | 6% | 91% | |
| 60 | 11% | 84% | |
| 61 | 8% | 73% | |
| 62 | 12% | 65% | Last Result |
| 63 | 18% | 53% | Median |
| 64 | 7% | 35% | |
| 65 | 9% | 28% | |
| 66 | 8% | 20% | |
| 67 | 5% | 12% | |
| 68 | 2% | 6% | |
| 69 | 2% | 4% | |
| 70 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 49 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 50 | 4% | 97% | |
| 51 | 4% | 92% | |
| 52 | 13% | 88% | Last Result |
| 53 | 10% | 76% | |
| 54 | 9% | 66% | |
| 55 | 16% | 57% | Median |
| 56 | 10% | 41% | |
| 57 | 8% | 31% | |
| 58 | 11% | 23% | |
| 59 | 4% | 12% | |
| 60 | 4% | 8% | |
| 61 | 2% | 4% | |
| 62 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Unique Research
- Commissioner(s): Heute
- Fieldwork period: 3–6 September 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.81%