Opinion Poll by Unique Research for profil, 10–13 September 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 34.0% | 31.9–36.2% | 31.3–36.8% | 30.8–37.4% | 29.8–38.4% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 28.0% | 26.0–30.1% | 25.5–30.7% | 25.0–31.2% | 24.1–32.3% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 25.0% | 23.1–27.0% | 22.6–27.6% | 22.1–28.1% | 21.2–29.1% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.0–8.3% | 5.7–8.7% | 5.4–9.0% | 5.0–9.6% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.9–5.6% | 2.5–6.1% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% | 0.4–2.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 65 | 61–69 | 59–71 | 58–72 | 56–74 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 54 | 49–57 | 48–59 | 47–60 | 46–62 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 48 | 44–52 | 43–52 | 42–54 | 40–56 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 13 | 11–15 | 10–16 | 10–17 | 9–18 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 0 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–11 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98% | |
| 59 | 2% | 96% | |
| 60 | 3% | 95% | |
| 61 | 10% | 92% | |
| 62 | 8% | 81% | Last Result |
| 63 | 12% | 73% | |
| 64 | 6% | 61% | |
| 65 | 8% | 55% | Median |
| 66 | 15% | 47% | |
| 67 | 11% | 32% | |
| 68 | 10% | 21% | |
| 69 | 3% | 11% | |
| 70 | 3% | 8% | |
| 71 | 3% | 6% | |
| 72 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 73 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 48 | 5% | 96% | |
| 49 | 4% | 92% | |
| 50 | 8% | 88% | |
| 51 | 7% | 79% | |
| 52 | 7% | 73% | Last Result |
| 53 | 13% | 65% | |
| 54 | 21% | 52% | Median |
| 55 | 11% | 32% | |
| 56 | 7% | 21% | |
| 57 | 5% | 13% | |
| 58 | 3% | 9% | |
| 59 | 2% | 5% | |
| 60 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 42 | 3% | 98% | |
| 43 | 5% | 95% | |
| 44 | 7% | 90% | |
| 45 | 6% | 83% | |
| 46 | 10% | 77% | |
| 47 | 12% | 67% | |
| 48 | 16% | 55% | Median |
| 49 | 9% | 38% | |
| 50 | 9% | 29% | |
| 51 | 9% | 20% | Last Result |
| 52 | 6% | 11% | |
| 53 | 2% | 5% | |
| 54 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 55 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 4% | 98% | Last Result |
| 11 | 13% | 94% | |
| 12 | 19% | 81% | |
| 13 | 22% | 62% | Median |
| 14 | 18% | 40% | |
| 15 | 13% | 21% | |
| 16 | 5% | 8% | |
| 17 | 2% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 50% | |
| 2 | 0% | 50% | |
| 3 | 0% | 50% | |
| 4 | 0% | 50% | |
| 5 | 0% | 50% | |
| 6 | 0% | 50% | |
| 7 | 11% | 50% | |
| 8 | 23% | 38% | |
| 9 | 10% | 16% | |
| 10 | 4% | 5% | |
| 11 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 118 | 100% | 113–124 | 112–124 | 110–126 | 108–128 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 113 | 100% | 107–118 | 106–119 | 105–120 | 103–122 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 101 | 99.3% | 96–106 | 94–107 | 93–108 | 91–111 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 72 | 82 | 0.7% | 77–87 | 76–89 | 75–90 | 72–92 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 78 | 0% | 73–83 | 71–84 | 71–85 | 69–87 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 70 | 0% | 65–76 | 64–77 | 63–78 | 61–80 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 69 | 0% | 63–74 | 62–76 | 61–77 | 59–79 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 65 | 0% | 61–69 | 59–71 | 58–72 | 56–74 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 54 | 0% | 49–57 | 48–59 | 47–60 | 46–62 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 106 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 109 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 110 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 111 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 112 | 6% | 97% | |
| 113 | 8% | 91% | |
| 114 | 4% | 83% | Last Result |
| 115 | 5% | 79% | |
| 116 | 6% | 74% | |
| 117 | 15% | 68% | |
| 118 | 7% | 53% | |
| 119 | 7% | 46% | Median |
| 120 | 9% | 39% | |
| 121 | 12% | 30% | |
| 122 | 2% | 18% | |
| 123 | 4% | 16% | |
| 124 | 7% | 12% | |
| 125 | 2% | 5% | |
| 126 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 127 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 128 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 103 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 104 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 105 | 2% | 98% | |
| 106 | 4% | 96% | |
| 107 | 5% | 92% | |
| 108 | 5% | 87% | |
| 109 | 6% | 82% | |
| 110 | 7% | 76% | |
| 111 | 12% | 69% | |
| 112 | 5% | 57% | |
| 113 | 9% | 52% | Last Result, Median |
| 114 | 10% | 43% | |
| 115 | 6% | 33% | |
| 116 | 8% | 27% | |
| 117 | 8% | 19% | |
| 118 | 4% | 10% | |
| 119 | 3% | 7% | |
| 120 | 2% | 4% | |
| 121 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 122 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 92 | 1.1% | 99.3% | Majority |
| 93 | 2% | 98% | |
| 94 | 3% | 97% | |
| 95 | 3% | 94% | |
| 96 | 5% | 91% | |
| 97 | 5% | 86% | |
| 98 | 8% | 82% | |
| 99 | 7% | 74% | |
| 100 | 11% | 68% | |
| 101 | 14% | 57% | |
| 102 | 9% | 43% | Median |
| 103 | 5% | 34% | Last Result |
| 104 | 9% | 29% | |
| 105 | 7% | 21% | |
| 106 | 8% | 14% | |
| 107 | 3% | 7% | |
| 108 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 109 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 74 | 1.1% | 98.8% | |
| 75 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 76 | 3% | 96% | |
| 77 | 8% | 93% | |
| 78 | 7% | 86% | Median |
| 79 | 9% | 79% | |
| 80 | 5% | 71% | |
| 81 | 9% | 66% | |
| 82 | 14% | 57% | |
| 83 | 11% | 43% | |
| 84 | 7% | 32% | |
| 85 | 8% | 26% | |
| 86 | 5% | 18% | |
| 87 | 5% | 14% | |
| 88 | 3% | 9% | |
| 89 | 3% | 6% | |
| 90 | 2% | 3% | |
| 91 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 0.7% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 70 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 71 | 3% | 98% | |
| 72 | 3% | 95% | Last Result |
| 73 | 3% | 92% | |
| 74 | 9% | 89% | |
| 75 | 7% | 80% | |
| 76 | 7% | 73% | |
| 77 | 13% | 66% | |
| 78 | 11% | 53% | Median |
| 79 | 8% | 42% | |
| 80 | 7% | 34% | |
| 81 | 7% | 28% | |
| 82 | 10% | 20% | |
| 83 | 5% | 11% | |
| 84 | 2% | 5% | |
| 85 | 2% | 3% | |
| 86 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 62 | 1.0% | 99.0% | Last Result |
| 63 | 2% | 98% | |
| 64 | 3% | 96% | |
| 65 | 4% | 93% | |
| 66 | 8% | 90% | |
| 67 | 8% | 81% | Median |
| 68 | 6% | 73% | |
| 69 | 10% | 67% | |
| 70 | 9% | 57% | |
| 71 | 5% | 48% | |
| 72 | 12% | 43% | |
| 73 | 7% | 31% | |
| 74 | 6% | 24% | |
| 75 | 5% | 18% | |
| 76 | 5% | 13% | |
| 77 | 4% | 8% | |
| 78 | 2% | 4% | |
| 79 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 62 | 3% | 96% | Last Result |
| 63 | 4% | 93% | |
| 64 | 3% | 89% | |
| 65 | 4% | 87% | Median |
| 66 | 11% | 82% | |
| 67 | 8% | 72% | |
| 68 | 11% | 63% | |
| 69 | 7% | 52% | |
| 70 | 12% | 45% | |
| 71 | 7% | 33% | |
| 72 | 8% | 26% | |
| 73 | 5% | 19% | |
| 74 | 4% | 14% | |
| 75 | 3% | 10% | |
| 76 | 3% | 6% | |
| 77 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 78 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98% | |
| 59 | 2% | 96% | |
| 60 | 3% | 95% | |
| 61 | 10% | 92% | |
| 62 | 8% | 81% | Last Result |
| 63 | 12% | 73% | |
| 64 | 6% | 61% | |
| 65 | 8% | 55% | Median |
| 66 | 15% | 47% | |
| 67 | 11% | 32% | |
| 68 | 10% | 21% | |
| 69 | 3% | 11% | |
| 70 | 3% | 8% | |
| 71 | 3% | 6% | |
| 72 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 73 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 48 | 5% | 96% | |
| 49 | 4% | 92% | |
| 50 | 8% | 88% | |
| 51 | 7% | 79% | |
| 52 | 7% | 73% | Last Result |
| 53 | 13% | 65% | |
| 54 | 21% | 52% | Median |
| 55 | 11% | 32% | |
| 56 | 7% | 21% | |
| 57 | 5% | 13% | |
| 58 | 3% | 9% | |
| 59 | 2% | 5% | |
| 60 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Unique Research
- Commissioner(s): profil
- Fieldwork period: 10–13 September 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.78%