Opinion Poll by Research Affairs for ÖSTERREICH, 19–20 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 31.5% 34.0% 31.4–36.8% 30.6–37.6% 30.0–38.2% 28.8–39.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 26.9% 23.9% 21.6–26.5% 21.0–27.2% 20.4–27.8% 19.3–29.1%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 26.0% 23.9% 21.6–26.5% 21.0–27.2% 20.4–27.8% 19.3–29.1%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 5.3% 7.9% 6.6–9.7% 6.2–10.2% 5.9–10.6% 5.3–11.5%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 3.8% 4.0% 3.0–5.3% 2.8–5.7% 2.6–6.0% 2.2–6.8%
JETZT–Liste Pilz 4.4% 2.0% 1.4–3.0% 1.2–3.3% 1.1–3.6% 0.9–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 66 60–71 58–73 57–75 54–78
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 46 41–51 40–53 38–54 36–57
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 51 46 41–51 40–53 39–54 36–57
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 10 15 12–18 12–19 11–20 10–22
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 0 0 0–10 0–10 0–11 0–12
JETZT–Liste Pilz 8 0 0 0 0 0–7

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.3% 99.7%  
55 0.5% 99.4%  
56 0.8% 98.9%  
57 2% 98%  
58 2% 96%  
59 3% 94%  
60 4% 91%  
61 7% 87%  
62 7% 80% Last Result
63 7% 73%  
64 7% 66%  
65 9% 59%  
66 11% 50% Median
67 7% 40%  
68 10% 33%  
69 5% 23%  
70 5% 18%  
71 3% 12%  
72 4% 9%  
73 2% 5%  
74 1.2% 4%  
75 1.0% 3%  
76 0.6% 2%  
77 0.4% 1.0%  
78 0.2% 0.6%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.4% 99.8%  
37 0.5% 99.4%  
38 1.5% 98.9%  
39 2% 97%  
40 2% 95%  
41 6% 93%  
42 4% 87%  
43 12% 84%  
44 9% 72%  
45 12% 62%  
46 11% 50% Median
47 4% 39%  
48 11% 35%  
49 3% 24%  
50 8% 21%  
51 6% 14%  
52 2% 8% Last Result
53 3% 5%  
54 0.5% 3%  
55 1.4% 2%  
56 0.2% 0.7%  
57 0.3% 0.6%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.3% 99.8%  
37 0.9% 99.5%  
38 1.0% 98.6%  
39 2% 98%  
40 4% 95%  
41 4% 91%  
42 7% 87%  
43 9% 80%  
44 5% 71%  
45 15% 65%  
46 8% 51% Median
47 8% 43%  
48 10% 35%  
49 4% 25%  
50 6% 21%  
51 6% 15% Last Result
52 2% 8%  
53 3% 6%  
54 1.4% 3%  
55 0.6% 1.5%  
56 0.4% 0.9%  
57 0.3% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.3% 99.9%  
10 1.1% 99.6% Last Result
11 4% 98.5%  
12 9% 95%  
13 16% 86%  
14 12% 70%  
15 14% 58% Median
16 14% 45%  
17 15% 31%  
18 9% 16%  
19 4% 7%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.7% 1.4%  
22 0.3% 0.7%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 50%  
2 0% 50%  
3 0% 50%  
4 0% 50%  
5 0% 50%  
6 0% 50%  
7 9% 50%  
8 17% 41%  
9 12% 24%  
10 6% 11%  
11 4% 5%  
12 0.9% 1.2%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

JETZT–Liste Pilz

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0% 0.6%  
4 0% 0.6%  
5 0% 0.6%  
6 0% 0.6%  
7 0.1% 0.6%  
8 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 113 111 100% 105–119 102–122 101–123 98–126
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 114 111 100% 104–118 103–120 101–122 98–126
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 103 92 51% 85–99 83–101 82–102 79–106
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 72 85 10% 78–92 77–93 75–95 72–99
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 81 1.4% 74–87 73–88 71–90 69–94
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 70 0% 63–76 61–78 60–79 57–83
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 65 0% 58–72 57–74 55–76 53–78
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 66 0% 60–71 58–73 57–75 54–78
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 46 0% 41–51 40–53 38–54 36–57

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.4% 99.7%  
99 0.5% 99.4%  
100 0.9% 98.8%  
101 1.3% 98%  
102 2% 97%  
103 2% 94%  
104 2% 93%  
105 3% 90%  
106 5% 87%  
107 5% 81%  
108 8% 76%  
109 7% 68%  
110 9% 61%  
111 9% 52%  
112 4% 44% Median
113 6% 40% Last Result
114 4% 34%  
115 6% 29%  
116 6% 23%  
117 3% 17%  
118 2% 14%  
119 3% 12%  
120 2% 8%  
121 0.9% 7%  
122 2% 6%  
123 2% 4%  
124 0.5% 2%  
125 0.4% 1.2%  
126 0.6% 0.9%  
127 0.2% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.4% 99.6%  
99 0.5% 99.3%  
100 0.7% 98.8%  
101 1.3% 98%  
102 2% 97%  
103 3% 95%  
104 3% 92%  
105 3% 90%  
106 4% 86%  
107 6% 83%  
108 6% 76%  
109 6% 71%  
110 7% 65%  
111 9% 58%  
112 9% 49% Median
113 6% 40%  
114 7% 34% Last Result
115 6% 27%  
116 3% 20%  
117 5% 17%  
118 3% 11%  
119 3% 8%  
120 1.3% 6%  
121 1.4% 4%  
122 0.8% 3%  
123 0.7% 2%  
124 0.7% 2%  
125 0.3% 0.9%  
126 0.3% 0.6%  
127 0.1% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.7%  
80 0.6% 99.4%  
81 0.8% 98.8%  
82 1.0% 98%  
83 2% 97%  
84 3% 95%  
85 3% 92%  
86 4% 90%  
87 6% 86%  
88 6% 80%  
89 6% 74%  
90 8% 68%  
91 9% 60%  
92 7% 51% Median, Majority
93 9% 44%  
94 5% 35%  
95 7% 30%  
96 5% 23%  
97 4% 18%  
98 3% 14%  
99 3% 11%  
100 3% 8%  
101 2% 6%  
102 1.1% 3%  
103 0.7% 2% Last Result
104 0.6% 1.4%  
105 0.1% 0.8%  
106 0.4% 0.7%  
107 0.1% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 0.3% 99.6% Last Result
73 0.2% 99.3%  
74 1.1% 99.1%  
75 0.8% 98%  
76 2% 97%  
77 2% 96%  
78 4% 93%  
79 4% 89%  
80 5% 85%  
81 4% 81% Median
82 8% 77%  
83 9% 69%  
84 9% 60%  
85 6% 51%  
86 8% 45%  
87 7% 37%  
88 7% 30%  
89 4% 22%  
90 5% 18%  
91 3% 13%  
92 4% 10% Majority
93 2% 6%  
94 1.5% 4%  
95 1.2% 3%  
96 0.7% 2%  
97 0.3% 1.1%  
98 0.3% 0.8%  
99 0.2% 0.5%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.7%  
69 0.6% 99.5%  
70 0.7% 99.0%  
71 1.2% 98%  
72 1.2% 97% Last Result
73 3% 96%  
74 4% 93%  
75 5% 90%  
76 6% 85%  
77 5% 79%  
78 8% 74%  
79 9% 66%  
80 6% 57%  
81 6% 51% Median
82 10% 44%  
83 8% 34%  
84 7% 26%  
85 4% 19%  
86 4% 15%  
87 3% 11%  
88 3% 8%  
89 0.9% 5%  
90 1.3% 4%  
91 1.0% 2%  
92 0.6% 1.4% Majority
93 0.2% 0.8%  
94 0.3% 0.6%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 0.3% 99.7%  
58 0.5% 99.4%  
59 0.8% 99.0%  
60 1.4% 98%  
61 3% 97%  
62 4% 94% Last Result
63 4% 91%  
64 4% 87%  
65 5% 83%  
66 6% 78% Median
67 6% 72%  
68 7% 66%  
69 8% 59%  
70 8% 52%  
71 5% 44%  
72 7% 39%  
73 6% 32%  
74 5% 25%  
75 7% 20%  
76 4% 13%  
77 2% 9%  
78 2% 6%  
79 2% 5%  
80 0.8% 2%  
81 0.5% 2%  
82 0.4% 1.1%  
83 0.3% 0.7%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.7%  
54 0.9% 99.3%  
55 2% 98%  
56 2% 97%  
57 4% 95%  
58 3% 91%  
59 1.5% 88%  
60 4% 86%  
61 5% 83% Median
62 4% 78% Last Result
63 6% 74%  
64 11% 68%  
65 8% 57%  
66 8% 49%  
67 8% 42%  
68 7% 33%  
69 6% 26%  
70 5% 20%  
71 3% 15%  
72 2% 12%  
73 3% 10%  
74 3% 7%  
75 2% 4%  
76 1.0% 3%  
77 0.8% 2%  
78 0.2% 0.7%  
79 0.2% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.3% 99.7%  
55 0.5% 99.4%  
56 0.8% 98.9%  
57 2% 98%  
58 2% 96%  
59 3% 94%  
60 4% 91%  
61 7% 87%  
62 7% 80% Last Result
63 7% 73%  
64 7% 66%  
65 9% 59%  
66 11% 50% Median
67 7% 40%  
68 10% 33%  
69 5% 23%  
70 5% 18%  
71 3% 12%  
72 4% 9%  
73 2% 5%  
74 1.2% 4%  
75 1.0% 3%  
76 0.6% 2%  
77 0.4% 1.0%  
78 0.2% 0.6%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.4% 99.8%  
37 0.5% 99.4%  
38 1.5% 98.9%  
39 2% 97%  
40 2% 95%  
41 6% 93%  
42 4% 87%  
43 12% 84%  
44 9% 72%  
45 12% 62%  
46 11% 50% Median
47 4% 39%  
48 11% 35%  
49 3% 24%  
50 8% 21%  
51 6% 14%  
52 2% 8% Last Result
53 3% 5%  
54 0.5% 3%  
55 1.4% 2%  
56 0.2% 0.7%  
57 0.3% 0.6%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations