Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 25–27 September 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 33.0% | 30.9–35.1% | 30.3–35.8% | 29.8–36.3% | 28.8–37.3% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 28.0% | 26.0–30.1% | 25.5–30.7% | 25.0–31.2% | 24.1–32.2% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 23.0% | 21.2–25.0% | 20.7–25.6% | 20.2–26.0% | 19.4–27.0% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 8.0% | 6.9–9.3% | 6.5–9.7% | 6.3–10.0% | 5.8–10.7% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.7–6.7% | 3.3–7.3% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.2% | 1.0–3.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 62 | 59–67 | 57–68 | 56–69 | 55–71 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 54 | 49–57 | 48–58 | 47–59 | 45–62 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 44 | 40–47 | 39–48 | 38–49 | 37–51 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 15 | 12–17 | 12–18 | 12–19 | 11–20 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 9 | 7–11 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 57 | 3% | 97% | |
| 58 | 4% | 95% | |
| 59 | 8% | 90% | |
| 60 | 13% | 83% | |
| 61 | 8% | 70% | |
| 62 | 14% | 62% | Last Result, Median |
| 63 | 10% | 48% | |
| 64 | 14% | 38% | |
| 65 | 6% | 24% | |
| 66 | 7% | 18% | |
| 67 | 4% | 11% | |
| 68 | 3% | 7% | |
| 69 | 2% | 3% | |
| 70 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 48 | 3% | 97% | |
| 49 | 5% | 94% | |
| 50 | 7% | 89% | |
| 51 | 9% | 82% | |
| 52 | 14% | 73% | Last Result |
| 53 | 10% | 60% | |
| 54 | 19% | 50% | Median |
| 55 | 10% | 31% | |
| 56 | 8% | 21% | |
| 57 | 6% | 13% | |
| 58 | 3% | 7% | |
| 59 | 2% | 4% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 38 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 39 | 3% | 97% | |
| 40 | 5% | 95% | |
| 41 | 10% | 90% | |
| 42 | 12% | 80% | |
| 43 | 12% | 67% | |
| 44 | 15% | 55% | Median |
| 45 | 15% | 40% | |
| 46 | 9% | 25% | |
| 47 | 7% | 16% | |
| 48 | 5% | 9% | |
| 49 | 2% | 5% | |
| 50 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 12 | 8% | 98% | |
| 13 | 13% | 90% | |
| 14 | 21% | 77% | |
| 15 | 23% | 56% | Median |
| 16 | 16% | 33% | |
| 17 | 9% | 17% | |
| 18 | 5% | 8% | |
| 19 | 2% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 93% | |
| 2 | 0% | 93% | |
| 3 | 0% | 93% | |
| 4 | 0% | 93% | |
| 5 | 0% | 93% | |
| 6 | 0% | 93% | |
| 7 | 4% | 93% | |
| 8 | 21% | 89% | |
| 9 | 32% | 68% | Median |
| 10 | 19% | 36% | |
| 11 | 11% | 17% | |
| 12 | 4% | 6% | |
| 13 | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 116 | 100% | 111–120 | 110–122 | 109–124 | 107–126 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 106 | 100% | 102–111 | 101–112 | 100–114 | 97–117 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 97 | 94% | 92–101 | 91–103 | 90–104 | 88–106 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 72 | 86 | 6% | 82–91 | 80–92 | 79–93 | 77–95 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 77 | 0% | 73–82 | 72–83 | 71–85 | 69–87 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 77 | 0% | 72–81 | 71–82 | 69–83 | 66–86 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 71 | 0% | 67–75 | 65–77 | 64–78 | 61–80 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 62 | 0% | 59–67 | 57–68 | 56–69 | 55–71 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 54 | 0% | 49–57 | 48–58 | 47–59 | 45–62 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 108 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 109 | 2% | 98% | |
| 110 | 2% | 97% | |
| 111 | 6% | 94% | |
| 112 | 5% | 88% | |
| 113 | 7% | 83% | |
| 114 | 17% | 76% | Last Result |
| 115 | 7% | 59% | |
| 116 | 11% | 51% | Median |
| 117 | 10% | 40% | |
| 118 | 12% | 30% | |
| 119 | 3% | 18% | |
| 120 | 5% | 15% | |
| 121 | 4% | 9% | |
| 122 | 1.5% | 6% | |
| 123 | 2% | 4% | |
| 124 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 125 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 98 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 99 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 100 | 2% | 98% | |
| 101 | 3% | 96% | |
| 102 | 5% | 93% | |
| 103 | 7% | 88% | |
| 104 | 12% | 81% | |
| 105 | 13% | 69% | |
| 106 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 107 | 10% | 45% | |
| 108 | 11% | 35% | |
| 109 | 9% | 24% | |
| 110 | 4% | 15% | |
| 111 | 4% | 11% | |
| 112 | 2% | 7% | |
| 113 | 2% | 5% | Last Result |
| 114 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 115 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 117 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 90 | 2% | 98% | |
| 91 | 2% | 96% | |
| 92 | 5% | 94% | Majority |
| 93 | 4% | 89% | |
| 94 | 6% | 85% | |
| 95 | 10% | 79% | |
| 96 | 12% | 69% | |
| 97 | 12% | 57% | |
| 98 | 12% | 45% | Median |
| 99 | 11% | 34% | |
| 100 | 9% | 23% | |
| 101 | 5% | 14% | |
| 102 | 3% | 9% | |
| 103 | 3% | 6% | Last Result |
| 104 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 105 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 106 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 77 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 79 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 80 | 3% | 97% | |
| 81 | 3% | 94% | |
| 82 | 5% | 91% | |
| 83 | 9% | 86% | |
| 84 | 11% | 77% | |
| 85 | 12% | 66% | |
| 86 | 12% | 55% | Median |
| 87 | 12% | 43% | |
| 88 | 10% | 31% | |
| 89 | 6% | 21% | |
| 90 | 4% | 15% | |
| 91 | 5% | 11% | |
| 92 | 2% | 6% | Majority |
| 93 | 2% | 4% | |
| 94 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 95 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 70 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 71 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 72 | 3% | 97% | Last Result |
| 73 | 6% | 94% | |
| 74 | 8% | 88% | |
| 75 | 12% | 80% | |
| 76 | 14% | 69% | |
| 77 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 78 | 10% | 45% | |
| 79 | 11% | 34% | |
| 80 | 6% | 23% | |
| 81 | 3% | 17% | |
| 82 | 4% | 13% | |
| 83 | 4% | 9% | |
| 84 | 2% | 5% | |
| 85 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 86 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 68 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 69 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 70 | 2% | 97% | |
| 71 | 2% | 95% | |
| 72 | 4% | 93% | |
| 73 | 4% | 89% | |
| 74 | 9% | 85% | |
| 75 | 11% | 76% | |
| 76 | 10% | 65% | |
| 77 | 12% | 55% | |
| 78 | 13% | 44% | Median |
| 79 | 12% | 31% | |
| 80 | 7% | 19% | |
| 81 | 5% | 12% | |
| 82 | 3% | 7% | |
| 83 | 2% | 4% | |
| 84 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 63 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 64 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 65 | 2% | 96% | |
| 66 | 3% | 95% | |
| 67 | 3% | 91% | |
| 68 | 8% | 88% | |
| 69 | 13% | 80% | |
| 70 | 7% | 66% | |
| 71 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 72 | 14% | 47% | |
| 73 | 10% | 34% | |
| 74 | 7% | 23% | |
| 75 | 6% | 16% | |
| 76 | 4% | 10% | |
| 77 | 2% | 5% | |
| 78 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 79 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 57 | 3% | 97% | |
| 58 | 4% | 95% | |
| 59 | 8% | 90% | |
| 60 | 13% | 83% | |
| 61 | 8% | 70% | |
| 62 | 14% | 62% | Last Result, Median |
| 63 | 10% | 48% | |
| 64 | 14% | 38% | |
| 65 | 6% | 24% | |
| 66 | 7% | 18% | |
| 67 | 4% | 11% | |
| 68 | 3% | 7% | |
| 69 | 2% | 3% | |
| 70 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 48 | 3% | 97% | |
| 49 | 5% | 94% | |
| 50 | 7% | 89% | |
| 51 | 9% | 82% | |
| 52 | 14% | 73% | Last Result |
| 53 | 10% | 60% | |
| 54 | 19% | 50% | Median |
| 55 | 10% | 31% | |
| 56 | 8% | 21% | |
| 57 | 6% | 13% | |
| 58 | 3% | 7% | |
| 59 | 2% | 4% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): Der Standard
- Fieldwork period: 25–27 September 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 804
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.91%