Opinion Poll by GfK for Die Presse, 1–13 October 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 33.0% | 31.5–34.6% | 31.0–35.0% | 30.7–35.4% | 29.9–36.2% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 27.5% | 26.1–29.1% | 25.7–29.5% | 25.3–29.9% | 24.6–30.6% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 23.5% | 22.2–25.0% | 21.8–25.4% | 21.4–25.8% | 20.8–26.5% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.2–7.9% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.5–8.9% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.7–6.6% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.2–3.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 63 | 60–66 | 59–67 | 59–68 | 57–70 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 53 | 50–55 | 49–57 | 48–57 | 47–59 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 45 | 42–48 | 42–48 | 41–49 | 40–51 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 13 | 12–15 | 11–15 | 11–16 | 10–17 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 0–11 | 0–12 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 59 | 3% | 98% | |
| 60 | 6% | 94% | |
| 61 | 9% | 88% | |
| 62 | 18% | 79% | Last Result |
| 63 | 17% | 61% | Median |
| 64 | 11% | 44% | |
| 65 | 16% | 33% | |
| 66 | 8% | 16% | |
| 67 | 4% | 8% | |
| 68 | 2% | 4% | |
| 69 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 49 | 3% | 97% | |
| 50 | 11% | 93% | |
| 51 | 11% | 82% | |
| 52 | 18% | 71% | Last Result |
| 53 | 17% | 53% | Median |
| 54 | 12% | 36% | |
| 55 | 15% | 25% | |
| 56 | 5% | 10% | |
| 57 | 3% | 5% | |
| 58 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 41 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 42 | 9% | 95% | |
| 43 | 10% | 86% | |
| 44 | 20% | 77% | |
| 45 | 20% | 57% | Median |
| 46 | 14% | 37% | |
| 47 | 10% | 23% | |
| 48 | 9% | 13% | |
| 49 | 3% | 4% | |
| 50 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 11 | 8% | 98% | |
| 12 | 23% | 90% | |
| 13 | 36% | 68% | Median |
| 14 | 16% | 31% | |
| 15 | 11% | 15% | |
| 16 | 3% | 4% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 97% | |
| 2 | 0% | 97% | |
| 3 | 0% | 97% | |
| 4 | 0% | 97% | |
| 5 | 0% | 97% | |
| 6 | 0% | 97% | |
| 7 | 2% | 97% | |
| 8 | 22% | 95% | |
| 9 | 37% | 73% | Median |
| 10 | 25% | 37% | |
| 11 | 9% | 12% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 116 | 100% | 113–119 | 112–120 | 111–121 | 109–124 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 108 | 100% | 105–111 | 104–113 | 103–113 | 102–115 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 98 | 99.4% | 94–101 | 94–102 | 93–103 | 91–105 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 72 | 85 | 0.6% | 82–89 | 81–89 | 80–90 | 78–92 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 76 | 0% | 73–79 | 72–80 | 72–81 | 70–83 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 75 | 0% | 72–78 | 70–79 | 70–80 | 68–81 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 72 | 0% | 69–75 | 68–76 | 67–77 | 64–79 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 63 | 0% | 60–66 | 59–67 | 59–68 | 57–70 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 53 | 0% | 50–55 | 49–57 | 48–57 | 47–59 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 108 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 111 | 2% | 98% | |
| 112 | 5% | 96% | |
| 113 | 7% | 91% | |
| 114 | 12% | 84% | Last Result |
| 115 | 17% | 72% | |
| 116 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 117 | 17% | 43% | |
| 118 | 10% | 26% | |
| 119 | 9% | 16% | |
| 120 | 3% | 7% | |
| 121 | 2% | 4% | |
| 122 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 123 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 103 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 104 | 3% | 97% | |
| 105 | 6% | 93% | |
| 106 | 13% | 87% | |
| 107 | 12% | 74% | |
| 108 | 20% | 62% | Median |
| 109 | 12% | 42% | |
| 110 | 14% | 30% | |
| 111 | 8% | 16% | |
| 112 | 3% | 9% | |
| 113 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 114 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 92 | 2% | 99.4% | Majority |
| 93 | 2% | 98% | |
| 94 | 6% | 96% | |
| 95 | 10% | 89% | |
| 96 | 15% | 80% | |
| 97 | 13% | 64% | |
| 98 | 13% | 51% | Median |
| 99 | 14% | 39% | |
| 100 | 12% | 24% | |
| 101 | 6% | 13% | |
| 102 | 3% | 6% | |
| 103 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 104 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 105 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 79 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 80 | 2% | 98% | |
| 81 | 3% | 96% | |
| 82 | 6% | 94% | |
| 83 | 12% | 87% | |
| 84 | 14% | 76% | |
| 85 | 13% | 61% | Median |
| 86 | 13% | 49% | |
| 87 | 15% | 36% | |
| 88 | 10% | 20% | |
| 89 | 6% | 11% | |
| 90 | 2% | 4% | |
| 91 | 2% | 2% | |
| 92 | 0.4% | 0.6% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 71 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 72 | 4% | 98% | Last Result |
| 73 | 6% | 94% | |
| 74 | 12% | 88% | |
| 75 | 14% | 76% | |
| 76 | 14% | 61% | Median |
| 77 | 14% | 47% | |
| 78 | 15% | 33% | |
| 79 | 9% | 18% | |
| 80 | 4% | 9% | |
| 81 | 2% | 5% | |
| 82 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 68 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 69 | 1.2% | 98.8% | |
| 70 | 3% | 98% | |
| 71 | 3% | 95% | |
| 72 | 8% | 91% | |
| 73 | 14% | 84% | |
| 74 | 12% | 70% | |
| 75 | 20% | 58% | Median |
| 76 | 12% | 38% | |
| 77 | 13% | 26% | |
| 78 | 6% | 13% | |
| 79 | 3% | 7% | |
| 80 | 2% | 3% | |
| 81 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 66 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98% | |
| 68 | 3% | 96% | |
| 69 | 6% | 93% | |
| 70 | 9% | 87% | |
| 71 | 17% | 78% | |
| 72 | 14% | 61% | Median |
| 73 | 15% | 48% | |
| 74 | 14% | 33% | |
| 75 | 9% | 19% | |
| 76 | 6% | 10% | |
| 77 | 2% | 4% | |
| 78 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 59 | 3% | 98% | |
| 60 | 6% | 94% | |
| 61 | 9% | 88% | |
| 62 | 18% | 79% | Last Result |
| 63 | 17% | 61% | Median |
| 64 | 11% | 44% | |
| 65 | 16% | 33% | |
| 66 | 8% | 16% | |
| 67 | 4% | 8% | |
| 68 | 2% | 4% | |
| 69 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 49 | 3% | 97% | |
| 50 | 11% | 93% | |
| 51 | 11% | 82% | |
| 52 | 18% | 71% | Last Result |
| 53 | 17% | 53% | Median |
| 54 | 12% | 36% | |
| 55 | 15% | 25% | |
| 56 | 5% | 10% | |
| 57 | 3% | 5% | |
| 58 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GfK
- Commissioner(s): Die Presse
- Fieldwork period: 1–13 October 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1500
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.48%