Opinion Poll by Research Affairs for ÖSTERREICH, 11–17 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 31.5% 34.0% 32.1–35.9% 31.6–36.5% 31.1–37.0% 30.2–37.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 26.9% 26.0% 24.2–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.8% 22.5–29.7%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 26.0% 24.0% 22.3–25.8% 21.8–26.3% 21.4–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 5.3% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 3.8% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
JETZT–Liste Pilz 4.4% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 67 62–72 61–72 60–73 59–74
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 51 47–55 46–56 45–57 44–59
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 51 47 43–51 42–52 41–53 40–55
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 10 13 11–16 11–16 10–17 10–18
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 0 7 0–9 0–10 0–10 0–11
JETZT–Liste Pilz 8 0 0 0 0 0

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.8%  
59 0.8% 99.5%  
60 2% 98.7%  
61 4% 97%  
62 6% 93% Last Result
63 8% 87%  
64 3% 79%  
65 8% 76%  
66 14% 68%  
67 24% 54% Median
68 9% 30%  
69 3% 21%  
70 0.9% 18%  
71 6% 17%  
72 8% 11%  
73 3% 4%  
74 0.5% 0.9%  
75 0% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.8%  
44 1.0% 99.6%  
45 2% 98.6%  
46 3% 97%  
47 7% 93%  
48 11% 87%  
49 10% 76%  
50 13% 66%  
51 10% 53% Median
52 14% 43% Last Result
53 12% 29%  
54 6% 17%  
55 3% 11%  
56 4% 7%  
57 2% 4%  
58 0.9% 1.4%  
59 0.2% 0.5%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.8% 99.7%  
41 2% 98.9%  
42 3% 97%  
43 7% 95%  
44 9% 88%  
45 7% 79%  
46 16% 72%  
47 16% 57% Median
48 11% 40%  
49 10% 29%  
50 8% 19%  
51 5% 11% Last Result
52 3% 6%  
53 1.3% 3%  
54 1.0% 2%  
55 0.5% 0.7%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.4% 100%  
10 2% 99.6% Last Result
11 8% 97%  
12 14% 89%  
13 30% 75% Median
14 21% 45%  
15 13% 24%  
16 7% 10%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.7% 1.1%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100% Last Result
1 0% 55%  
2 0% 55%  
3 0% 55%  
4 0% 55%  
5 0% 55%  
6 0% 55%  
7 7% 55% Median
8 30% 48%  
9 13% 18%  
10 4% 5%  
11 0.9% 1.1%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

JETZT–Liste Pilz

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 114 117 100% 112–123 111–124 110–125 107–127
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 113 113 100% 108–119 107–120 106–121 104–123
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 103 98 95% 93–103 92–104 91–105 88–107
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 72 85 2% 79–89 78–91 77–91 75–94
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 80 0.1% 75–85 74–86 73–87 71–89
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 71 0% 66–76 65–76 64–77 61–81
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 69 0% 64–74 62–75 61–76 59–78
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 67 0% 62–72 61–72 60–73 59–74
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 51 0% 47–55 46–56 45–57 44–59

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.4% 99.8%  
108 0.4% 99.4%  
109 1.5% 99.0%  
110 1.2% 98%  
111 3% 96%  
112 6% 93%  
113 5% 88%  
114 7% 83% Last Result
115 10% 76%  
116 12% 66%  
117 7% 54%  
118 7% 47% Median
119 9% 39%  
120 8% 31%  
121 6% 23%  
122 4% 17%  
123 5% 13%  
124 4% 8%  
125 2% 4%  
126 0.9% 2%  
127 0.8% 1.2%  
128 0.1% 0.4%  
129 0.2% 0.2%  
130 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.3% 99.8%  
104 0.6% 99.5%  
105 0.9% 98.9%  
106 2% 98%  
107 2% 96%  
108 5% 93%  
109 6% 89%  
110 10% 83%  
111 6% 74%  
112 7% 68%  
113 11% 60% Last Result
114 8% 50% Median
115 7% 41%  
116 9% 34%  
117 8% 25%  
118 6% 17%  
119 5% 11%  
120 2% 7%  
121 2% 5%  
122 1.3% 2%  
123 0.7% 1.0%  
124 0.2% 0.4%  
125 0.1% 0.2%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.4% 99.7%  
89 0.9% 99.3%  
90 0.8% 98%  
91 2% 98%  
92 4% 95% Majority
93 5% 91%  
94 5% 87%  
95 14% 81%  
96 7% 68%  
97 10% 60%  
98 7% 51% Median
99 11% 44%  
100 7% 33%  
101 7% 26%  
102 5% 19%  
103 6% 14% Last Result
104 3% 7%  
105 3% 5%  
106 1.3% 2%  
107 0.4% 0.8%  
108 0.2% 0.5%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.5% 99.6%  
76 0.9% 99.1%  
77 2% 98%  
78 3% 96%  
79 3% 93%  
80 7% 90%  
81 6% 83%  
82 7% 77%  
83 7% 69%  
84 11% 62%  
85 7% 51%  
86 9% 44%  
87 7% 35% Median
88 13% 28%  
89 5% 14%  
90 4% 9%  
91 3% 5%  
92 1.0% 2% Majority
93 0.6% 1.5%  
94 0.5% 0.9%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.7% 99.7%  
72 0.9% 99.0% Last Result
73 2% 98%  
74 3% 96%  
75 4% 94%  
76 7% 90%  
77 8% 83%  
78 8% 75%  
79 11% 67%  
80 16% 56% Median
81 8% 40%  
82 8% 32%  
83 6% 24%  
84 6% 18%  
85 3% 12%  
86 5% 9%  
87 2% 4%  
88 0.9% 2%  
89 0.5% 0.8%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1% Majority
93 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.4% 99.7%  
62 0.9% 99.3% Last Result
63 0.6% 98%  
64 1.0% 98%  
65 4% 97%  
66 8% 93%  
67 11% 85%  
68 3% 74%  
69 5% 71%  
70 8% 66%  
71 11% 58%  
72 9% 47%  
73 3% 38%  
74 3% 35% Median
75 20% 32%  
76 8% 12%  
77 1.3% 4%  
78 0.1% 2%  
79 0.2% 2%  
80 1.0% 2%  
81 0.8% 1.0%  
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.3% 99.7%  
60 1.1% 99.3%  
61 2% 98%  
62 3% 96% Last Result
63 3% 94%  
64 5% 91%  
65 6% 86%  
66 9% 80%  
67 10% 71%  
68 7% 61%  
69 8% 54%  
70 12% 45%  
71 7% 34% Median
72 6% 27%  
73 9% 21%  
74 4% 12%  
75 4% 8%  
76 2% 4%  
77 1.1% 2%  
78 0.6% 1.0%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.8%  
59 0.8% 99.5%  
60 2% 98.7%  
61 4% 97%  
62 6% 93% Last Result
63 8% 87%  
64 3% 79%  
65 8% 76%  
66 14% 68%  
67 24% 54% Median
68 9% 30%  
69 3% 21%  
70 0.9% 18%  
71 6% 17%  
72 8% 11%  
73 3% 4%  
74 0.5% 0.9%  
75 0% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.8%  
44 1.0% 99.6%  
45 2% 98.6%  
46 3% 97%  
47 7% 93%  
48 11% 87%  
49 10% 76%  
50 13% 66%  
51 10% 53% Median
52 14% 43% Last Result
53 12% 29%  
54 6% 17%  
55 3% 11%  
56 4% 7%  
57 2% 4%  
58 0.9% 1.4%  
59 0.2% 0.5%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations