Opinion Poll by Spectra, 9–29 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 31.5% 33.1% 30.8–35.4% 30.2–36.0% 29.7–36.6% 28.6–37.7%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 26.0% 26.0% 24.0–28.2% 23.4–28.8% 22.9–29.4% 21.9–30.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 26.9% 25.0% 23.0–27.2% 22.4–27.8% 21.9–28.3% 21.0–29.4%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 5.3% 5.9% 4.9–7.2% 4.6–7.6% 4.4–7.9% 4.0–8.6%
JETZT–Liste Pilz 4.4% 4.9% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.6–6.8% 3.2–7.4%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 3.8% 4.0% 3.2–5.1% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.7% 2.4–6.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 63 58–67 57–69 56–71 54–73
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 51 49 45–53 43–55 43–56 41–58
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 48 43–51 42–53 41–54 39–56
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 10 11 9–13 8–14 8–15 7–16
JETZT–Liste Pilz 8 9 7–11 0–12 0–13 0–14
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 0 7 0–9 0–10 0–10 0–11

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.9% 99.5%  
55 1.1% 98.6%  
56 2% 98%  
57 3% 95%  
58 5% 92%  
59 7% 87%  
60 10% 80%  
61 8% 70%  
62 12% 62% Last Result
63 8% 51% Median
64 13% 43%  
65 10% 30%  
66 7% 20%  
67 4% 13%  
68 3% 9%  
69 2% 6%  
70 2% 4%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.3% 1.3%  
73 0.7% 0.9%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.6%  
42 0.6% 99.2%  
43 4% 98.7%  
44 3% 95%  
45 4% 92%  
46 11% 88%  
47 9% 77%  
48 7% 68%  
49 19% 61% Median
50 5% 42%  
51 5% 37% Last Result
52 18% 32%  
53 4% 14%  
54 3% 9%  
55 4% 6%  
56 0.7% 3%  
57 0.9% 2%  
58 0.7% 1.1%  
59 0.2% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.4% 99.7%  
40 1.0% 99.2%  
41 2% 98%  
42 3% 97%  
43 6% 94%  
44 7% 88%  
45 11% 81%  
46 6% 70%  
47 13% 64%  
48 13% 50% Median
49 15% 37%  
50 6% 22%  
51 7% 16%  
52 4% 9% Last Result
53 2% 5%  
54 1.0% 3%  
55 1.4% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.8%  
57 0.1% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 0% 99.5%  
2 0% 99.5%  
3 0% 99.5%  
4 0% 99.5%  
5 0% 99.5%  
6 0% 99.5%  
7 0.7% 99.5%  
8 5% 98.9%  
9 14% 94%  
10 16% 79% Last Result
11 27% 63% Median
12 16% 36%  
13 11% 19%  
14 5% 8%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.7% 1.0%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

JETZT–Liste Pilz

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 0% 90%  
2 0% 90%  
3 0% 90%  
4 0% 90%  
5 0% 90%  
6 0% 90%  
7 5% 90%  
8 21% 86% Last Result
9 25% 65% Median
10 20% 40%  
11 10% 20%  
12 7% 10%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.5% 0.7%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 49% 100% Last Result
1 0% 51%  
2 0% 51%  
3 0% 51%  
4 0% 51%  
5 0% 51%  
6 0% 51%  
7 12% 51% Median
8 23% 39%  
9 11% 16%  
10 4% 5%  
11 1.2% 1.5%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 113 112 100% 107–118 104–120 104–123 101–124
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 114 110 100% 104–116 103–118 102–119 99–123
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 103 97 87% 91–102 90–103 88–105 86–109
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 72 78 0.1% 73–83 71–85 70–86 66–89
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 72 74 0% 69–78 67–81 66–82 64–84
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 67 0% 62–73 60–74 59–76 56–78
Österreichische Volkspartei 62 63 0% 58–67 57–69 56–71 54–73
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 62 62 0% 58–68 56–70 54–71 52–74
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 52 48 0% 43–51 42–53 41–54 39–56

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0.1% 100%  
100 0.2% 99.9%  
101 0.4% 99.7%  
102 0.3% 99.2%  
103 1.3% 98.9%  
104 3% 98%  
105 2% 95%  
106 2% 93%  
107 6% 91%  
108 12% 84%  
109 4% 72%  
110 7% 69%  
111 11% 62%  
112 8% 51% Median
113 6% 43% Last Result
114 9% 37%  
115 9% 28%  
116 5% 19%  
117 3% 14%  
118 3% 11%  
119 2% 8%  
120 1.5% 6%  
121 1.1% 4%  
122 0.6% 3%  
123 2% 3%  
124 0.9% 1.1%  
125 0.1% 0.2%  
126 0% 0.2%  
127 0.1% 0.1%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0.1% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.4% 99.8%  
100 0.3% 99.3%  
101 1.5% 99.0%  
102 1.5% 98%  
103 5% 96%  
104 4% 91%  
105 5% 87%  
106 4% 83%  
107 9% 79%  
108 5% 69%  
109 10% 64%  
110 6% 54%  
111 14% 48% Median
112 6% 34%  
113 7% 28%  
114 4% 21% Last Result
115 5% 16%  
116 3% 11%  
117 3% 8%  
118 2% 5%  
119 1.5% 4%  
120 0.8% 2%  
121 0.6% 2%  
122 0.4% 0.9%  
123 0.3% 0.5%  
124 0.1% 0.2%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.3% 99.8%  
86 0.5% 99.6%  
87 0.6% 99.1%  
88 1.0% 98%  
89 2% 97%  
90 4% 96%  
91 5% 91%  
92 4% 87% Majority
93 5% 82%  
94 5% 77%  
95 11% 72%  
96 8% 61%  
97 8% 53% Median
98 13% 45%  
99 8% 32%  
100 8% 24%  
101 5% 16%  
102 4% 11%  
103 2% 7% Last Result
104 2% 5%  
105 0.6% 3%  
106 1.1% 2%  
107 0.3% 1.3%  
108 0.4% 1.1%  
109 0.2% 0.6%  
110 0.2% 0.4%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.4% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.5%  
68 0.3% 99.1%  
69 0.7% 98.9%  
70 2% 98%  
71 1.1% 96%  
72 4% 95% Last Result
73 8% 91%  
74 5% 83%  
75 13% 79%  
76 8% 66%  
77 6% 58%  
78 10% 52%  
79 10% 42%  
80 7% 33%  
81 5% 26% Median
82 6% 22%  
83 6% 16%  
84 2% 10%  
85 3% 8%  
86 3% 5%  
87 0.6% 2%  
88 0.9% 2%  
89 0.3% 0.7%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1% Majority
93 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.4% 99.6%  
65 1.0% 99.2%  
66 3% 98%  
67 2% 96%  
68 3% 94%  
69 7% 91%  
70 3% 84%  
71 11% 80%  
72 9% 69% Last Result
73 10% 61%  
74 6% 50% Median
75 17% 45%  
76 6% 28%  
77 4% 22%  
78 8% 18%  
79 2% 9%  
80 2% 8%  
81 2% 6%  
82 1.0% 3%  
83 1.4% 2%  
84 0.6% 1.0%  
85 0.1% 0.4%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.6%  
57 0.5% 99.4%  
58 0.9% 98.8%  
59 2% 98%  
60 3% 96%  
61 3% 93%  
62 7% 90% Last Result
63 6% 83%  
64 11% 78%  
65 8% 67%  
66 8% 59%  
67 8% 51%  
68 8% 43%  
69 7% 34%  
70 6% 27% Median
71 7% 22%  
72 3% 15%  
73 6% 12%  
74 2% 6%  
75 2% 4%  
76 1.4% 3%  
77 0.6% 1.2%  
78 0.2% 0.6%  
79 0.1% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.9% 99.5%  
55 1.1% 98.6%  
56 2% 98%  
57 3% 95%  
58 5% 92%  
59 7% 87%  
60 10% 80%  
61 8% 70%  
62 12% 62% Last Result
63 8% 51% Median
64 13% 43%  
65 10% 30%  
66 7% 20%  
67 4% 13%  
68 3% 9%  
69 2% 6%  
70 2% 4%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.3% 1.3%  
73 0.7% 0.9%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 99.9%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.8%  
52 1.1% 99.7%  
53 0.2% 98.7%  
54 3% 98%  
55 0.5% 96%  
56 3% 95%  
57 1.4% 92%  
58 10% 91%  
59 4% 81%  
60 14% 76%  
61 5% 62%  
62 12% 57% Last Result
63 5% 46%  
64 6% 40%  
65 4% 34%  
66 9% 31% Median
67 9% 21%  
68 4% 12%  
69 3% 8%  
70 2% 6%  
71 2% 4%  
72 0.5% 2%  
73 0.5% 1.4%  
74 0.4% 0.8%  
75 0.3% 0.4%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.4% 99.7%  
40 1.0% 99.2%  
41 2% 98%  
42 3% 97%  
43 6% 94%  
44 7% 88%  
45 11% 81%  
46 6% 70%  
47 13% 64%  
48 13% 50% Median
49 15% 37%  
50 6% 22%  
51 7% 16%  
52 4% 9% Last Result
53 2% 5%  
54 1.0% 3%  
55 1.4% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.8%  
57 0.1% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations