Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 13–15 November 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 33.0% | 30.9–35.2% | 30.3–35.8% | 29.8–36.3% | 28.9–37.4% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 26.0% | 24.1–28.1% | 23.6–28.7% | 23.1–29.2% | 22.2–30.2% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 25.0% | 23.1–27.1% | 22.6–27.6% | 22.1–28.2% | 21.3–29.1% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 8.0% | 6.9–9.3% | 6.6–9.7% | 6.3–10.1% | 5.8–10.7% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.7–6.7% | 3.3–7.3% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.2% | 1.0–3.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 62 | 59–67 | 57–68 | 56–69 | 54–71 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 49 | 45–53 | 44–54 | 43–55 | 42–58 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 47 | 44–51 | 42–53 | 42–54 | 40–56 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 15 | 13–17 | 12–18 | 12–19 | 11–20 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 9 | 7–11 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 57 | 3% | 97% | |
| 58 | 4% | 94% | |
| 59 | 5% | 91% | |
| 60 | 10% | 86% | |
| 61 | 16% | 76% | |
| 62 | 12% | 60% | Last Result, Median |
| 63 | 11% | 48% | |
| 64 | 6% | 36% | |
| 65 | 14% | 30% | |
| 66 | 5% | 17% | |
| 67 | 5% | 12% | |
| 68 | 3% | 7% | |
| 69 | 2% | 4% | |
| 70 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 43 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 44 | 3% | 97% | |
| 45 | 5% | 94% | |
| 46 | 6% | 90% | |
| 47 | 11% | 83% | |
| 48 | 12% | 72% | |
| 49 | 16% | 61% | Median |
| 50 | 9% | 44% | |
| 51 | 11% | 35% | |
| 52 | 10% | 25% | Last Result |
| 53 | 5% | 15% | |
| 54 | 4% | 9% | |
| 55 | 3% | 5% | |
| 56 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 41 | 1.4% | 99.2% | |
| 42 | 3% | 98% | |
| 43 | 4% | 94% | |
| 44 | 8% | 90% | |
| 45 | 12% | 82% | |
| 46 | 8% | 70% | |
| 47 | 16% | 62% | Median |
| 48 | 12% | 46% | |
| 49 | 8% | 34% | |
| 50 | 12% | 26% | |
| 51 | 5% | 14% | Last Result |
| 52 | 4% | 9% | |
| 53 | 2% | 5% | |
| 54 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 12 | 7% | 98% | |
| 13 | 12% | 91% | |
| 14 | 19% | 79% | |
| 15 | 23% | 60% | Median |
| 16 | 17% | 37% | |
| 17 | 11% | 20% | |
| 18 | 6% | 10% | |
| 19 | 2% | 4% | |
| 20 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 92% | |
| 2 | 0% | 92% | |
| 3 | 0% | 92% | |
| 4 | 0% | 92% | |
| 5 | 0% | 92% | |
| 6 | 0% | 92% | |
| 7 | 4% | 92% | |
| 8 | 18% | 88% | |
| 9 | 32% | 71% | Median |
| 10 | 21% | 38% | |
| 11 | 9% | 17% | |
| 12 | 6% | 8% | |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 112 | 100% | 108–116 | 106–118 | 105–119 | 103–122 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 110 | 100% | 105–115 | 104–116 | 103–117 | 101–121 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 103 | 96 | 92% | 92–102 | 91–103 | 90–104 | 88–107 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 72 | 87 | 8% | 81–91 | 80–92 | 79–93 | 76–95 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 78 | 0% | 73–82 | 72–83 | 71–85 | 69–87 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 73 | 0% | 68–78 | 67–79 | 66–80 | 62–82 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 71 | 0% | 67–76 | 65–77 | 64–78 | 60–80 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 62 | 0% | 59–67 | 57–68 | 56–69 | 54–71 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 49 | 0% | 45–53 | 44–54 | 43–55 | 42–58 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 104 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 105 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 106 | 2% | 97% | |
| 107 | 5% | 95% | |
| 108 | 6% | 90% | |
| 109 | 7% | 84% | |
| 110 | 14% | 77% | |
| 111 | 8% | 63% | Median |
| 112 | 15% | 55% | |
| 113 | 8% | 40% | |
| 114 | 12% | 32% | Last Result |
| 115 | 6% | 20% | |
| 116 | 4% | 14% | |
| 117 | 3% | 10% | |
| 118 | 3% | 7% | |
| 119 | 2% | 4% | |
| 120 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 102 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 103 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 104 | 2% | 97% | |
| 105 | 6% | 94% | |
| 106 | 5% | 89% | |
| 107 | 8% | 83% | |
| 108 | 10% | 75% | |
| 109 | 12% | 65% | Median |
| 110 | 10% | 53% | |
| 111 | 8% | 42% | |
| 112 | 13% | 35% | |
| 113 | 6% | 22% | Last Result |
| 114 | 6% | 17% | |
| 115 | 4% | 11% | |
| 116 | 3% | 6% | |
| 117 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 118 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 119 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 89 | 1.5% | 99.3% | |
| 90 | 2% | 98% | |
| 91 | 4% | 96% | |
| 92 | 4% | 92% | Majority |
| 93 | 5% | 88% | |
| 94 | 12% | 82% | |
| 95 | 8% | 70% | |
| 96 | 13% | 62% | Median |
| 97 | 8% | 49% | |
| 98 | 11% | 41% | |
| 99 | 10% | 30% | |
| 100 | 4% | 21% | |
| 101 | 7% | 17% | |
| 102 | 4% | 10% | |
| 103 | 3% | 6% | Last Result |
| 104 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 105 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 106 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 107 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 77 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 78 | 0.8% | 98.7% | |
| 79 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 80 | 3% | 97% | |
| 81 | 4% | 94% | |
| 82 | 7% | 90% | |
| 83 | 4% | 83% | |
| 84 | 10% | 79% | |
| 85 | 11% | 69% | |
| 86 | 8% | 59% | Median |
| 87 | 13% | 51% | |
| 88 | 8% | 38% | |
| 89 | 12% | 30% | |
| 90 | 5% | 18% | |
| 91 | 4% | 12% | |
| 92 | 4% | 8% | Majority |
| 93 | 2% | 4% | |
| 94 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 95 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 70 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 71 | 2% | 98% | |
| 72 | 2% | 96% | Last Result |
| 73 | 6% | 94% | |
| 74 | 6% | 88% | |
| 75 | 10% | 81% | |
| 76 | 10% | 71% | |
| 77 | 10% | 61% | Median |
| 78 | 11% | 51% | |
| 79 | 9% | 40% | |
| 80 | 14% | 31% | |
| 81 | 5% | 17% | |
| 82 | 5% | 13% | |
| 83 | 4% | 8% | |
| 84 | 2% | 4% | |
| 85 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 86 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 87 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 65 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 66 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 67 | 3% | 97% | |
| 68 | 4% | 94% | |
| 69 | 6% | 89% | |
| 70 | 6% | 83% | |
| 71 | 13% | 78% | |
| 72 | 8% | 65% | |
| 73 | 10% | 58% | Median |
| 74 | 12% | 47% | |
| 75 | 10% | 35% | |
| 76 | 8% | 25% | |
| 77 | 5% | 16% | |
| 78 | 6% | 11% | |
| 79 | 2% | 6% | |
| 80 | 2% | 3% | |
| 81 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 62 | 0.6% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.8% | 98.5% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98% | |
| 65 | 2% | 96% | |
| 66 | 4% | 94% | |
| 67 | 4% | 90% | |
| 68 | 6% | 86% | |
| 69 | 6% | 80% | |
| 70 | 13% | 74% | |
| 71 | 15% | 61% | Median |
| 72 | 10% | 47% | |
| 73 | 9% | 37% | |
| 74 | 10% | 28% | |
| 75 | 5% | 17% | |
| 76 | 4% | 12% | |
| 77 | 4% | 8% | |
| 78 | 2% | 4% | |
| 79 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 57 | 3% | 97% | |
| 58 | 4% | 94% | |
| 59 | 5% | 91% | |
| 60 | 10% | 86% | |
| 61 | 16% | 76% | |
| 62 | 12% | 60% | Last Result, Median |
| 63 | 11% | 48% | |
| 64 | 6% | 36% | |
| 65 | 14% | 30% | |
| 66 | 5% | 17% | |
| 67 | 5% | 12% | |
| 68 | 3% | 7% | |
| 69 | 2% | 4% | |
| 70 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 43 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 44 | 3% | 97% | |
| 45 | 5% | 94% | |
| 46 | 6% | 90% | |
| 47 | 11% | 83% | |
| 48 | 12% | 72% | |
| 49 | 16% | 61% | Median |
| 50 | 9% | 44% | |
| 51 | 11% | 35% | |
| 52 | 10% | 25% | Last Result |
| 53 | 5% | 15% | |
| 54 | 4% | 9% | |
| 55 | 3% | 5% | |
| 56 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): Der Standard
- Fieldwork period: 13–15 November 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 803
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.20%