Opinion Poll by Unique Research for profil, 12–16 November 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 31.5% | 35.0% | 32.9–37.2% | 32.3–37.8% | 31.8–38.4% | 30.8–39.4% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 26.9% | 24.0% | 22.1–26.0% | 21.6–26.6% | 21.2–27.1% | 20.3–28.1% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 26.0% | 24.0% | 22.1–26.0% | 21.6–26.6% | 21.2–27.1% | 20.3–28.1% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 5.3% | 9.0% | 7.8–10.4% | 7.5–10.8% | 7.2–11.2% | 6.7–11.9% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.7–6.8% | 3.3–7.3% |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.2–3.2% | 1.0–3.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 66 | 63–71 | 61–72 | 60–74 | 58–76 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 45 | 42–49 | 41–50 | 40–51 | 38–53 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 51 | 45 | 41–50 | 41–50 | 41–51 | 38–54 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 10 | 17 | 15–19 | 14–20 | 13–21 | 12–22 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 0 | 9 | 7–11 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 |
| JETZT–Liste Pilz | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 61 | 3% | 97% | |
| 62 | 3% | 94% | Last Result |
| 63 | 8% | 91% | |
| 64 | 12% | 83% | |
| 65 | 10% | 71% | |
| 66 | 16% | 61% | Median |
| 67 | 13% | 45% | |
| 68 | 10% | 33% | |
| 69 | 7% | 23% | |
| 70 | 5% | 16% | |
| 71 | 4% | 11% | |
| 72 | 3% | 7% | |
| 73 | 2% | 4% | |
| 74 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 39 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 40 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 41 | 5% | 96% | |
| 42 | 6% | 91% | |
| 43 | 6% | 85% | |
| 44 | 17% | 79% | |
| 45 | 18% | 62% | Median |
| 46 | 6% | 44% | |
| 47 | 12% | 38% | |
| 48 | 14% | 26% | |
| 49 | 5% | 12% | |
| 50 | 2% | 7% | |
| 51 | 3% | 5% | |
| 52 | 1.2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 39 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 40 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 41 | 12% | 98% | |
| 42 | 7% | 86% | |
| 43 | 2% | 79% | |
| 44 | 3% | 77% | |
| 45 | 24% | 73% | Median |
| 46 | 22% | 49% | |
| 47 | 12% | 27% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 16% | |
| 49 | 1.2% | 15% | |
| 50 | 10% | 14% | |
| 51 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 14 | 3% | 96% | |
| 15 | 14% | 93% | |
| 16 | 24% | 79% | |
| 17 | 11% | 55% | Median |
| 18 | 25% | 44% | |
| 19 | 12% | 19% | |
| 20 | 3% | 7% | |
| 21 | 2% | 4% | |
| 22 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 93% | |
| 2 | 0% | 93% | |
| 3 | 0% | 93% | |
| 4 | 0% | 93% | |
| 5 | 0% | 93% | |
| 6 | 0% | 93% | |
| 7 | 4% | 93% | |
| 8 | 18% | 89% | |
| 9 | 29% | 71% | Median |
| 10 | 21% | 42% | |
| 11 | 14% | 21% | |
| 12 | 5% | 7% | |
| 13 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
JETZT–Liste Pilz
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the JETZT–Liste Pilz page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 114 | 111 | 100% | 108–116 | 106–118 | 105–121 | 103–124 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 113 | 112 | 100% | 107–116 | 106–118 | 105–119 | 103–122 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 72 | 92 | 59% | 88–97 | 86–98 | 85–98 | 82–101 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 103 | 91 | 41% | 86–95 | 85–97 | 85–98 | 82–101 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 72 | 83 | 1.2% | 79–88 | 78–89 | 76–90 | 75–93 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 76 | 0% | 70–79 | 69–81 | 68–82 | 65–84 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 62 | 71 | 0% | 67–76 | 65–77 | 64–78 | 61–80 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 62 | 66 | 0% | 63–71 | 61–72 | 60–74 | 58–76 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 52 | 45 | 0% | 42–49 | 41–50 | 40–51 | 38–53 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 104 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 105 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 106 | 3% | 97% | |
| 107 | 4% | 95% | |
| 108 | 5% | 91% | |
| 109 | 6% | 86% | |
| 110 | 11% | 80% | |
| 111 | 25% | 69% | Median |
| 112 | 10% | 43% | |
| 113 | 5% | 34% | |
| 114 | 11% | 29% | Last Result |
| 115 | 4% | 18% | |
| 116 | 5% | 14% | |
| 117 | 2% | 10% | |
| 118 | 3% | 7% | |
| 119 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 120 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 121 | 2% | 3% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 124 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 104 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 105 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 106 | 3% | 97% | |
| 107 | 5% | 94% | |
| 108 | 5% | 89% | |
| 109 | 9% | 84% | |
| 110 | 11% | 75% | |
| 111 | 10% | 64% | Median |
| 112 | 18% | 53% | |
| 113 | 7% | 35% | Last Result |
| 114 | 8% | 28% | |
| 115 | 7% | 20% | |
| 116 | 3% | 13% | |
| 117 | 4% | 10% | |
| 118 | 2% | 6% | |
| 119 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 120 | 2% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 84 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 85 | 2% | 98% | |
| 86 | 2% | 96% | |
| 87 | 3% | 94% | |
| 88 | 8% | 91% | |
| 89 | 8% | 83% | |
| 90 | 4% | 75% | |
| 91 | 12% | 71% | |
| 92 | 14% | 59% | Median, Majority |
| 93 | 6% | 45% | |
| 94 | 17% | 39% | |
| 95 | 7% | 23% | |
| 96 | 2% | 15% | |
| 97 | 8% | 13% | |
| 98 | 3% | 5% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 100 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 101 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 83 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 84 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 85 | 3% | 98% | |
| 86 | 8% | 95% | |
| 87 | 2% | 87% | |
| 88 | 7% | 85% | |
| 89 | 17% | 77% | |
| 90 | 6% | 60% | Median |
| 91 | 14% | 55% | |
| 92 | 12% | 41% | Majority |
| 93 | 4% | 29% | |
| 94 | 8% | 24% | |
| 95 | 8% | 17% | |
| 96 | 3% | 9% | |
| 97 | 2% | 6% | |
| 98 | 2% | 4% | |
| 99 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 104 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 76 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 77 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 78 | 5% | 96% | |
| 79 | 6% | 91% | |
| 80 | 7% | 85% | |
| 81 | 7% | 78% | |
| 82 | 13% | 71% | |
| 83 | 9% | 58% | Median |
| 84 | 11% | 48% | |
| 85 | 12% | 37% | |
| 86 | 6% | 25% | |
| 87 | 7% | 19% | |
| 88 | 5% | 12% | |
| 89 | 3% | 8% | |
| 90 | 3% | 5% | |
| 91 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 92 | 0.4% | 1.2% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 67 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 68 | 2% | 98% | |
| 69 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 70 | 5% | 94% | |
| 71 | 2% | 90% | |
| 72 | 7% | 87% | |
| 73 | 13% | 80% | |
| 74 | 7% | 67% | |
| 75 | 8% | 60% | Median |
| 76 | 19% | 52% | |
| 77 | 9% | 33% | |
| 78 | 7% | 24% | |
| 79 | 8% | 17% | |
| 80 | 2% | 8% | |
| 81 | 3% | 6% | |
| 82 | 2% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 63 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 64 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 65 | 2% | 96% | |
| 66 | 4% | 94% | |
| 67 | 3% | 90% | |
| 68 | 7% | 87% | |
| 69 | 8% | 80% | |
| 70 | 7% | 72% | |
| 71 | 18% | 65% | Median |
| 72 | 10% | 46% | |
| 73 | 11% | 36% | |
| 74 | 9% | 25% | |
| 75 | 5% | 16% | |
| 76 | 5% | 11% | |
| 77 | 3% | 6% | |
| 78 | 2% | 3% | |
| 79 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 61 | 3% | 97% | |
| 62 | 3% | 94% | Last Result |
| 63 | 8% | 91% | |
| 64 | 12% | 83% | |
| 65 | 10% | 71% | |
| 66 | 16% | 61% | Median |
| 67 | 13% | 45% | |
| 68 | 10% | 33% | |
| 69 | 7% | 23% | |
| 70 | 5% | 16% | |
| 71 | 4% | 11% | |
| 72 | 3% | 7% | |
| 73 | 2% | 4% | |
| 74 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 39 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 40 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 41 | 5% | 96% | |
| 42 | 6% | 91% | |
| 43 | 6% | 85% | |
| 44 | 17% | 79% | |
| 45 | 18% | 62% | Median |
| 46 | 6% | 44% | |
| 47 | 12% | 38% | |
| 48 | 14% | 26% | |
| 49 | 5% | 12% | |
| 50 | 2% | 7% | |
| 51 | 3% | 5% | |
| 52 | 1.2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Unique Research
- Commissioner(s): profil
- Fieldwork period: 12–16 November 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.25%